AFC East 2023 Biggest Challenge Yet In Division For Bills Since 2019

[corta765]

Looking at 2023 this will be I think the biggest in division challenge the Bills have faced since they rose up in 2019 and just missed taking NE for the division crown. For the record despite many people's doom and gloom I still think Buffalo is a very strong contender and the team to beat in the AFCE. Until Allen ages and declines the division still will run through Buffalo most years. Top 5 QBs like him historically rarely are beaten out in division unless a talent equal exists. Despite some upstart threats in 21 (NE) and 22 (MIA) the Bills still won the division by a game or more each year and Buffalo is 15-3 in division the last three years. The Bills will have some attrition on defense, but they will make some improvements on offense and largely return a similar roster.

With that said all three AFCE opponents are in year 3 of rebuilds/retools at this point and the pressure is more on them to show they can make the move. This is how I preview each as the head into 2023:

 

Miami Dolphins: The Dolphins showed when healthy especially at QB they can 100% be a viable threat for the division and Tua can be a quality starter. In the game for what amounted to being the division crown in 2023 at home in DEC Tua played quite well. The problem for Miami is ... also Tua and their lack of cap space. Tua has had quite a few major concussions and injuries are a legitimate concern now. Miami has built a quality offense and has a great offensive mind helping, but it is real question on whether they can depend on Tua health wise and 23' will most likely be the litmus test on where they go with him. They can open up some cap space as they currently are over, but reinforcements are limited. 2023 will probably determine if Miami stays course with this group and Tua or they take a step back to retool at QB and a few other positions. Miami will give their best shot, but in many ways the pressure is on to show that their high points last year can be truly sustainable.

 

New York Jets: The Jets showed last year they have added some true blue chip talent across their roster and the rebuild is showing signs of true progress. Their defense certainly is Top 10 and can keep them in any game. Both games with NY last year felt like brutal street fights and I would not expect that to change. On offense the talent is there at the skill positions but QB still is the major point of question as Zach Wilson flamed out with his best production coming with the moms. The Jets will upgrade with names like Carr, Jimmy G, or Rodgers being the primary focus. The issue the Jets have is they are close to the cap and will need to restructure or cut to add that QB. In 2024 the Jets could have over a 100 million open in space (granted some big starters like Q Williams need an extension) which could allow NY to kick some of their cap issues in 23 down the road. Regardless whoever is brought in at QB is expected to make this team a playoff team, if that fails to happen it could be another retool and step back in 2024. For my money Carr is probably the safest upgrade as he rarely is injured unlike Jimmy G and is younger then Rodgers who showed a diminished skill set. Why the heck they added Hackett as OC when LaFleur last year seemed decent still blows my mind. But with Carr I think he would give them a good floor level of QB production and he has some moxy to carry them. NY has the most unknown component of the three AFCE division foes as we have not seen them with a quality QB so we do not know what they look like. For that reason they probably cause me the most concern for the division plus they get a 4th place schedule 

 

New England Patriots: The Patriots lack the most at skill positions and have shown signs of a middling team that just doesn't have enough across the board. Someone put it best that the Patriots feel like the the Bills 2006-2009 with some talent on D but not enough on offense to really do anything minus a token player (Stevenson) here or there. The Matt Patricia/Joe Judge experiment at OC worked so well it nuked any promise Mac Jones showed in 2021 to the point now their are questions if he even remains the starter. The Patriots have some cap space (34 mil) but have guys they need to resign like Jakobi Myers WR. There have been talks they will try to bring in a WR through trade to help Mac, but the noise seems to be players are avoiding NE as it wasn't what it was. This is year 3 of Mac Jones, year 4 of BB without Brady and the hour glass is really starting to run out of sand as fan impatience is growing and owner Robert Kraft is beyond unpleased that they have just a single playoff appearance and no wins since 2019 (welcome to life post Brady). Despite everything BB has done it really is starting to feel like the sun is setting quickly and time is limited. They brought the band back at on the coaching staff and I am sure they will try to make some additions to move the needle on offense. But NE emptied their war chest in the 2021 offseason and they will try again this year with less resources to do so as another non playoff year really feels like seismic changes will come across the board and a true step back in 24.  

Edited February 27, 2023 by corta765

[Ga boy]

Hey Corta:  Nice post.  Last week I posted a concerned about our division possibilities and you gave me a LAMP response.  I respect your evaluation since I didn’t provide the depth of analysis that you’ve posted.  However, you have not eased my troubled mind. In addition to your nice description of the current status of our division rivals, I would add that the Jets and Pats have more draft capital.  Also, both are picking ahead of us, and targeting OT and WR, which are our areas of need also.  We better get better if we are to repeat as division champs.  Go Bills!!

[corta765]

Just now, Ga boy said:

Hey Corta:  Nice post.  Last week I posted a concerned about our division possibilities and you gave me a LAMP response.  I respect your evaluation since I didn’t provide the depth of analysis that you’ve posted.  However, you have not eased my troubled mind. In addition to your nice description of the current status of our division rivals, I would add that the Jets and Pats have more draft capital.  Also, both are picking ahead of us, and targeting OT and WR, which are our areas of need also.  We better get better if we are to repeat as division champs.  Go Bills!!

 

I apologize for my LAMP post, you didn't really post anything bad I had read some stuff prior for others that had me in an annoyed mindset (the fanbase has been pretty negative and unruly lately). My point I think this is the best shot for the next few years a team will get in division at Buffalo as all three of them are looking at change if they can't hit some level of success in 23.

 

If you want to feel better the actually rate of players starting their first year is pretty low the entire time and having an impact is not incredibly large. The Jets last year did what the Bills did in 2017 with three true starters (Sauce, Wilson, Johnson, Hall) that made major impacts. By the same token it is really hard to get that level of impact yearly and because they had a better season their draft picks are lower. The Patriots have so many positions of need, even if they had some hits it will only do so much. I really do not fear NE much at all at this point and think MIA/NYJ are far stronger across the board minus coaching. NE needs a billion things to go right to become any form of a contender and they potentially have the worst QB of the bunch if the Jets get Carr or Rodgers.

 

The Jets could be a real issue if they get a QB, but we split with them last year anyway so if Buffalo is 4-2 again it isn't anything of trouble. The larger issue comes schedule wise where NY could eat some easier wins. 

 

In the end though unless a team gets a QB of Josh's level Buffalo consistently has a sizeable advantage that is hard to match yearly. Cheers

[Ga boy]

1 hour ago, corta765 said:

 

I apologize for my LAMP post, you didn't really post anything bad I had read some stuff prior for others that had me in an annoyed mindset (the fanbase has been pretty negative and unruly lately). My point I think this is the best shot for the next few years a team will get in division at Buffalo as all three of them are looking at change if they can't hit some level of success in 23.

 

If you want to feel better the actually rate of players starting their first year is pretty low the entire time and having an impact is not incredibly large. The Jets last year did what the Bills did in 2017 with three true starters (Sauce, Wilson, Johnson, Hall) that made major impacts. By the same token it is really hard to get that level of impact yearly and because they had a better season their draft picks are lower. The Patriots have so many positions of need, even if they had some hits it will only do so much. I really do not fear NE much at all at this point and think MIA/NYJ are far stronger across the board minus coaching. NE needs a billion things to go right to become any form of a contender and they potentially have the worst QB of the bunch if the Jets get Carr or Rodgers.

 

The Jets could be a real issue if they get a QB, but we split with them last year anyway so if Buffalo is 4-2 again it isn't anything of trouble. The larger issue comes schedule wise where NY could eat some easier wins. 

 

In the end though unless a team gets a QB of Josh's level Buffalo consistently has a sizeable advantage that is hard to match yearly. Cheers

Thanks.  I enjoy the depth of your posts and many others that know football better than me.  I don’t know much, but I do know that JA17 always gives us a chance to be the only team winning the last game.  

[LABILLBACKER]

If Carr goes to NYJ and Lamar goes to Mia, all bets are off.  We'll be in a dogfight every year.  Our first window was 20-22. Now we'll have to restructure this team.

[Success]

All 3 teams are hovering around contending for the title - but all seem like they'll need a good bit of luck to pull it off.

 

My hope is that we are able to do what New England did for the better part of 2 decades. Even if teams get close, owners get impatient with anything less than a division winner, and it would be great to see the other 3 teams constantly changing coaches and QB's to try to catch the Bills.  

 

To do that, we have to keep winning the division. We are the best team w/ the best QB, so should, but division games are always unpredictable and one of the other teams could challenge us if things fall their way.

 

[H2o]

This division is likely the toughest in the AFC again next year. The only thing separating all of them is the QB play. We have the best in the division, and one of the 3 best in the NFL overall. We'll be right there every year Allen is taking the snaps from Center. We still need to focus our offseason on fixing the OL and getting Josh another couple of weapons. If they hit on that, then everything should be good to go.  

[corta765]

52 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If Carr goes to NYJ and Lamar goes to Mia, all bets are off.  We'll be in a dogfight every year.  Our first window was 20-22. Now we'll have to restructure this team.

 

It is hard until QB dust settles to know how it all shakes down. It seems like Tua will be there this year and the NFC has far more teams with assets to trade then MIA can. Lamar in MIA would be terrifying but amazing also.

 

Again I think just go 4-2 division and your fine it is how you handle the rest of the conference that will determine a bunch. The Jets would scare me more with a younger QB, I still think there best avenue would be drafting a guy to sit for a year either this year or next even if they have Jimmy/Carr/Rodgers. But I doubt those vets want the noise.

[MJS]

Each year is a new year. We'll see how the division actually performs.

[Dave in Avon Lake now]

I was concerned with Miami last year, but Tua’s concussions seem to hinder any further improvement to make the challenge. Jets are improved and benefit from weak schedule but need decent QB play to challenge. We seem to have Patriot’s number so should continue dominating division. I’m concerned our schedule could make things closer this year but feel we are still Beasts of the East and continued playoff team. Hoping off-season changes will make us a better playoff competitor. Go Bills!

[corta765]

4 minutes ago, Dave in Avon Lake now said:

I was concerned with Miami last year, but Tua’s concussions seem to hinder any further improvement to make the challenge. Jets are improved and benefit from weak schedule but need decent QB play to challenge. We seem to have Patriot’s number so should continue dominating division. I’m concerned our schedule could make things closer this year but feel we are still Beasts of the East and continued playoff team. Hoping off-season changes will make us a better playoff competitor. Go Bills!

 

I legit feel for Tua and Phin fans despite being a rival. The dude has the talent but the injuries are serious and he just seems like one of those guys who they won't stay away from him. I think had Tua been healthy the full season Buffalo would've only won the division by a game over MIA. It makes it hard to buy Miami as a real threat when I feel like he is going to miss 3-5 games.