How bad were the Bills receivers this year? Hint really really bad

[RichRiderBills]

I think we are also near bottom in YAC...some of which is a product of offense and distribution...some on WR.

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

People realize there are more than 1 round per draft right? 

 

Why is everything always about the first round pick?  Especially when drafting late.  Most of the top 20 WR's in football were not taken in the first round, it is not the only place to find a WR.  

 

Let the board fall the way it falls, we have plenty of holes on this team to consider with our pick, take the BPA.  If its a WR, great...but it could also be an OL, RB, or even a defensive player if we suddenly have some big holes to fill.  

 

But to just say it must be a WR and then have to reach to get a WR at our pick would be a mistake.  Personally, I think it will more than likely be an offensive lineman the way I think the first round board falls that will be the BPA.  However, if Bijan does last to our pick, I have a hard time seeing anyone else that would still be on the board and be ranked higher than him.  

You said it right there "we have plenty of holes on this team." Let that sink in...

[Yantha]

Here's an interesting stat comparison.  Not sure if part of this is offensive playcalling.  Allen's average target depth is longer on average, but if you add up YAC, it gets to 14.0.  Mahomes is 14.5.  Not a huge difference overall there, BUT if the playcalling were shorter routes, the drops would be less as well (which means better offensive production).

 

Mahomes/WR's:

Bad Pass:  16.7%

Avg Target Depth:  7.8 yards

Sack Rate:  3.9%

Avg Receiver YAC:  6.7 yards

Receiver Drop %:  4.8%

 

Allen/WR's:

Bad Pass:  16.9%

Avg Target Depth:  9.3 yards

Sack Rate:  5.5%

Avg Receiver YAC:  4.7 yards

Receiver Drop %:  6.0%

 

What stands out the most to me here is the drop rate, yet, BUT the YAC is 3.1 yards less than what we see in KC.  So why is this?  How do KC's receivers have more open space to make a play?  Or do they fight for more yards?  No idea here, but the NFL field is only 3.5 yards long... if you really think about it...

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by Yantha

[Dopey]

What are some of you complaining about?
2nd in yds per game

2nd in points per game 

we lost 3 regular season games by 3 points each. Josh was the issue in 2 of those losses. He was injured in the Jets game, but was having a bad game before the injury. I can’t believe First Round Bust brought up the Minnesota game as an indictment on the receivers. The receivers actually had a good game. Josh totally gave Minny that game.
I’m not bashing Josh , but who led the league in interceptions? Josh also left points off the board in the Cincy game. He also has to learn there are hot routes, underneath routes. Not just hero ball long throws after he decides to run out of the pocket because he doesn’t see them or refuses to use the short stuff. Josh isn’t 💯 innocent here.
If you all really feel offense was an issue, at least acknowledge Josh had his shortcomings too. 
Oh, and tuck the ball when you take off running. 
Oh, and learn to SLIDE when running. Wouldn’t trade Josh for anyone except for Mahomes, but even Josh can improve to help get us to the ultimate goal. 

After all this, I’m happy where this franchise is and they will be one of the faves again next year. As they should. 

[LEBills]

11 hours ago, Kiva said:

Keep Diggs.  Replace everyone else. 

Diggs, Gabe and Shakir are the only ones you hold onto. And if you can get something decent for Gabe you do it IMO

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, Herb Nightly said:

I'm OK with the WR @1....but isn't Guard more of a need than tackle?

 

Well, unless you think that Spencer Brown is the answer.  IMO he's not far behind the trajectory that Ford took.  

 

As I see it we have needs in 4 OL spots.  C, both Gs, and RT.  Dawkins is signed only for two more seasons, so is Morse but it'll be surprising if he lasts the next two seasons between age/diminished play as 31 is old for a C, and injuries/concussions.  Some people say that Van Roten can play C, but will he be any good, he's never started a full season at C.  We've seen enough of this kind of approach to stocking our OL.  

 

Anyway, that's just my take, but you cannot neglect an entire unit for five straight seasons and expect to have a Ballard, Woolford, Hull, Ritcher OL.  We have the opposite end of the spectrum, a bunch of guys that swap out every season giving Allen zero continuity in terms of chemistry with his OL.  It's incredibly unfair to Allen.  It impacts the RBs too.  Singletary will probably do much better elsewhere than he's done here because he'll probably end up somewhere where he'll get 250 carries and log 1,200 or 1,300 yards.  He's only had 20+ carries five times since he's been here, he's averaged 4.7 YPC in four seasons.  They don't know how to balance their offense.  Imagine what Singletary might do behind a good OL.  

 

It's beyond unfortunate the wasted and misused talent here.  At least the issues with McD and Beane are bubbling up, finally.  

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, Dopey said:

What are some of you complaining about?

 

Oh, I don't know, maybe getting routinely humiliated in the playoffs with coaching in the playoffs that makes people utter angry words and which renders them speechless.  

 

Many of us watched this team go to four Super Bowls straight, lose because we were outcoached, not because we didn't have the talent to win, and simply "making the playoffs" and being preseason favorites ain't cuttin' it.  

 

Call us crazy.   

 

[Yantha]

5 minutes ago, LEBills said:

Diggs, Gabe and Shakir are the only ones you hold onto. And if you can get something decent for Gabe you do it IMO

 

I'm not giving up on Gabe just yet.  It's his contract year so he'll be playing for the contract of his life....  why miss out on that...  and if he's not playing well, Shakir sees the field more.  I think Shakir is going to be special.

 

I'd also keep Kumerow as the 5th WR.  They can't all be WR1's.

I complain too.  But remember what it's like to have JP Losman as the starting QB, missing the playoffs time and time again...

 

Perspective.

 

With this roster, we're in the middle of what would be called "1st world problems" outside of the NFL.  I'm good with that, but want to see a Superbowl win.

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

People realize there are more than 1 round per draft right? 

 

Why is everything always about the first round pick?  Especially when drafting late.  Most of the top 20 WR's in football were not taken in the first round, it is not the only place to find a WR.  

 

Let the board fall the way it falls, we have plenty of holes on this team to consider with our pick, take the BPA.  If its a WR, great...but it could also be an OL, RB, or even a defensive player if we suddenly have some big holes to fill.  

 

But to just say it must be a WR and then have to reach to get a WR at our pick would be a mistake.  Personally, I think it will more than likely be an offensive lineman the way I think the first round board falls that will be the BPA.  However, if Bijan does last to our pick, I have a hard time seeing anyone else that would still be on the board and be ranked higher than him.  

 

Makes sense.  The only thing that I would add is that any RB that we draft would be less effective because our OL sucks.  Gotta put the horse in front of the cart there.  Same regarding Allen's play, which impacts the receivers.  

 

But at the end of the day, the fact that this discussion is even out there strongly suggests that Beane ain't cuttin' it.  

 

Having said that, what all of a sudden is going to make him start cutting it, and moreover, how is more not cutting it going to correct it.  

 

Anyone with common sense knows the answer to that.  

 

[LEBills]

11 minutes ago, Yantha said:

 

I'm not giving up on Gabe just yet.  It's his contract year so he'll be playing for the contract of his life....  why miss out on that...  and if he's not playing well, Shakir sees the field more.  I think Shakir is going to be special.

 

I'd also keep Kumerow as the 5th WR.  They can't all be WR1's.

I complain too.  But remember what it's like to have JP Losman as the starting QB, missing the playoffs time and time again...

 

Perspective.

 

With this roster, we're in the middle of what would be called "1st world problems" outside of the NFL.  I'm good with that, but want to see a Superbowl win.

I wouldn’t give Gabe away but he is a WR3 not a WR2. If you can get a third or better for him on the last year of his deal I probably take it. Parlay that into a rookie on a four year contract that you think can be a WR3 or better. I like Shakir too, but we need more than Diggs and Shakir. Kumerows spot should be given to a cheap rookie. He is 31, was injured most the year, and his value is in being a special teams gunner. 
 

We are a good team, there is no doubt about it and I’m thankful for that but doesn’t mean we should settle for mediocrity anywhere on the roster should always be looking to improve.

[PBF81]

11 minutes ago, Yantha said:

 

I'm not giving up on Gabe just yet.  It's his contract year so he'll be playing for the contract of his life....  why miss out on that...  and if he's not playing well, Shakir sees the field more.  I think Shakir is going to be special.

 

I'd also keep Kumerow as the 5th WR.  They can't all be WR1's.

I complain too.  But remember what it's like to have JP Losman as the starting QB, missing the playoffs time and time again...

 

Perspective.

 

With this roster, we're in the middle of what would be called "1st world problems" outside of the NFL.  I'm good with that, but want to see a Superbowl win.

 

Funny that you mention Losman, if Allen were on that team he'd be doing better than he is now.  The only talent he has that's better than what we had then is Diggs.  

 

Our OL back then was Peters, Gandy, Fowler, and Villareal.  While hardly our best OL in Bills' history, it's notably better than what we have now.  

 

On the DL we had Kelsay, Williams, and Schobel.  

At LB we had Spikes, Fletcher, Crowell 

In the secondary, Whitner, McGee, Clements, and Simpson.

 

I'd trade that roster for ours apart from Allen in a NY second.  We were 7-9 that season with two 1-point losses, one 2-point loss (once to the Pats), and two 3-point losses.  In three of our other four losses that season we put up only 6, 7, 7, and 20 points.  That's 12-4 minimum with Allen, possibly better, and a likely division championship over the Pats who were 12-4.  

 

That's the difference between Allen.  Now, remove Allen from our team now and we don't even make the playoffs and "The Last 20 Years" is still going on.  

 

 

[Dopey]

17 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well, unless you think that Spencer Brown is the answer.  IMO he's not far behind the trajectory that Ford took.  

 

As I see it we have needs in 4 OL spots.  C, both Gs, and RT.  Dawkins is signed only for two more seasons, so is Morse but it'll be surprising if he lasts the next two seasons between age/diminished play as 31 is old for a C, and injuries/concussions.  Some people say that Van Roten can play C, but will he be any good, he's never started a full season at C.  We've seen enough of this kind of approach to stocking our OL.  

 

Anyway, that's just my take, but you cannot neglect an entire unit for five straight seasons and expect to have a Ballard, Woolford, Hull, Ritcher OL.  We have the opposite end of the spectrum, a bunch of guys that swap out every season giving Allen zero continuity in terms of chemistry with his OL.  It's incredibly unfair to Allen.  It impacts the RBs too.  Singletary will probably do much better elsewhere than he's done here because he'll probably end up somewhere where he'll get 250 carries and log 1,200 or 1,300 yards.  He's only had 20+ carries five times since he's been here, he's averaged 4.7 YPC in four seasons.  They don't know how to balance their offense.  Imagine what Singletary might do behind a good OL.  

 

It's beyond unfortunate the wasted and misused talent here.  At least the issues with McD and Beane are bubbling up, finally.  

 

 

 

 

Oh, I don't know, maybe getting routinely humiliated in the playoffs with coaching in the playoffs that makes people utter angry words and which renders them speechless.  

 

Many of us watched this team go to four Super Bowls straight, lose because we were outcoached, not because we didn't have the talent to win, and simply "making the playoffs" and being preseason favorites ain't cuttin' it.  

 

Call us crazy.   

 

Routinely?! We’re 4-3 in the playoffs the past 3 years. 
I watched the same SB losses as you and 3 of those losses were not due to coaching. We lost the first one due to “wide right”, not coaching. Skins loss, coaching. Dallas was heads and shoulders a more talented team. 
Crazy? Nah. Off base on some things? Definitely. 

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, LEBills said:

I wouldn’t give Gabe away but he is a WR3 not a WR2. If you can get a third or better for him on the last year of his deal I probably take it. Parlay that into a rookie on a four year contract that you think can be a WR3 or better. I like Shakir too, but we need more than Diggs and Shakir. Kumerows spot should be given to a cheap rookie. He is 31, was injured most the year, and his value is in being a special teams gunner. 
 

We are a good team, there is no doubt about it and I’m thankful for that but doesn’t mean we should settle for mediocrity anywhere on the roster should always be looking to improve.

 

We have to hope that this past season of dropsies is correctible.  If it is he'll be a solid #2.  If not, let him walk in FAcy.  

 

[BillsFan2313]

8 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Funny that you mention Losman, if Allen were on that team he'd be doing better than he is now.  The only talent he has that's better than what we had then is Diggs.  

 

Our OL back then was Peters, Gandy, Fowler, and Villareal.  While hardly our best OL in Bills' history, it's notably better than what we have now.  

 

On the DL we had Kelsay, Williams, and Schobel.  

At LB we had Spikes, Fletcher, Crowell 

In the secondary, Whitner, McGee, Clements, and Simpson.

 

I'd trade that roster for ours apart from Allen in a NY second.  We were 7-9 that season with two 1-point losses, one 2-point loss (once to the Pats), and two 3-point losses.  In three of our other four losses that season we put up only 6, 7, 7, and 20 points.  That's 12-4 minimum with Allen, possibly better, and a likely division championship over the Pats who were 12-4.  

 

That's the difference between Allen.  Now, remove Allen from our team now and we don't even make the playoffs and "The Last 20 Years" is still going on.  

 

 

 

Finding a franchise QB is the hardest part, and Beane did alot of maneuvering to get into position to be able to draft Allen. That trumps anything past regimes have done. 

[PBF81]

11 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Routinely?! We’re 4-3 in the playoffs the past 3 years. 
I watched the same SB losses as you and 3 of those losses were not due to coaching. We lost the first one due to “wide right”, not coaching. Skins loss, coaching. Dallas was heads and shoulders a more talented team. 
Crazy? Nah. Off base on some things? Definitely. 

 

Yeah, between "13 Seconds" last season, which was major-league WTF territory, coupled with horrific defensive performances, at home, by our illustrious #2 ranked defense nearly losing to Skylar Thompson, who let's face it, no one ever heard of before that time, and being humiliated by the Bengals allowing them to do whatever they wanted offensively, also well into WTF territory, yeah, I'd say routinely at this point.  

 

I also wouldn't call our 38 point defensive effort allowing 439 yards and 29 1st-downs to the Chiefs to end our season in '20 anything other than humiliating either on the defensive side.  

 

"Wide Right" never should have gotten to that point.  We should have had that game put away much earlier.  The second Cowboys game we were leading 13-6 at the half, got demolished 24-0 in the 2nd half.  Yes, that was coaching.  They said that Jimmy Johnson was throwing chairs around at halftime swearing up a hurricane, while Levy was reading Hemmingway quotes to our players.  Go rewatch the game, watch 'em come out of the tunnel, and tell me that the delta wasn't coaching there.  

 

We had better talent than the Giants, and comparable or better talent than the Cowboys.  Kelly was better than Aikman too.  

 

Either way, don't leapfrog the point, the point was that [for whatever reason] us fans went through that, and simply "making the playoffs now" is not the standard anymore.  The standard is at least getting to the Super Bowl, but we can't even do that once despite having one of the top two QBs in the league.  

 

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Finding a franchise QB is the hardest part, and Beane did alot of maneuvering to get into position to be able to draft Allen. That trumps anything past regimes have done. 

 

Well yes, BUT past regimes never even had the opportunity to draft Allen.  You can only do what you can do.  There hasn't been a draft where we had a top-10 pick with a QB that even approaches Allen on the board at the time we picked.  Imagine that they had, put Allen on that team instead of Losman.  

 

As long as we're on the topic, let's not forget that he overlooked Mahomes, and his hand was forced into drafting a QB that season.  Beane's lucky that Allen came along.  It was hardly an astonishment of the imagination that we drafted a QB in a QB rich draft, we all knew that they would likely draft a QB, right.  Peterman sucked.  

 

But either way, how much credit are we going to give him for drafting Allen five years ago amidst a slew of poor draft picks generally speaking otherwise.  How long can Beane's reputation live off of a single draft pick.   He's fortunate that he did draft Allen, we're low-end by our "Last 20 Years" standard without Allen.  Also, his lack of ability to draft well is now costing Allen, both injury and wear-n-tear/abuse wise, but also by keeping the offense entirely one-dimensional.  Allen is everything offensively more so than any other team we've had.  

 

He's reasonably taking heat now and has a perfect opportunity to turn an A Draft coming up.  Let's see what he does.  But why am I envisioning a WR in round 1, an OL-man in round 2, and an OLB/DE in round 3.  He's got a lot of holes to fill, but at some point not addressing the OL adequately, and he's been far from that, is going to cost him his job.  We've been drafting DLs rabidly, and shuffling WRs in and out of here annually.  On the OL it's been dumpster-diving with the exception of Morse, who may not be long for the NFL anymore.  Centers age out faster than any other positions.  

 

We need to draft at least two OL-men in rounds 1-3, presumably in the 1st-round.  Our hand is forced at OL just as it was at QB then.  

 

 

[H2o]

13 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

Our friend Tim Graham over at the Athletic broke down just had ridiculously bad the Bills receiving corps was this year 

 

Didn't you know all of this is Josh's fault? The regression is real 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, Yantha said:

Here's an interesting stat comparison.  Not sure if part of this is offensive playcalling.  Allen's average target depth is longer on average, but if you add up YAC, it gets to 14.0.  Mahomes is 14.5.  Not a huge difference overall there, BUT if the playcalling were shorter routes, the drops would be less as well (which means better offensive production).

 

Mahomes/WR's:

Bad Pass:  16.7%

Avg Target Depth:  7.8 yards

Sack Rate:  3.9%

Avg Receiver YAC:  6.7 yards

Receiver Drop %:  4.8%

 

Allen/WR's:

Bad Pass:  16.9%

Avg Target Depth:  9.3 yards

Sack Rate:  5.5%

Avg Receiver YAC:  4.7 yards

Receiver Drop %:  6.0%

 

What stands out the most to me here is the drop rate, yet, BUT the YAC is 3.1 yards less than what we see in KC.  So why is this?  How do KC's receivers have more open space to make a play?  Or do they fight for more yards?  No idea here, but the NFL field is only 3.5 yards long... if you really think about it...

 

A few successful screens REALLY increases your YAC numbers. The Bills are not a screen team, and Andy Reid offenses are generally pretty good at screens.

[BillsFan2313]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Well yes, BUT past regimes never even had the opportunity to draft Allen.  You can only do what you can do.  There hasn't been a draft where we had a top-10 pick with a QB that even approaches Allen on the board at the time we picked.  Imagine that they had, put Allen on that team instead of Losman.  

 

As long as we're on the topic, let's not forget that he overlooked Mahomes, and his hand was forced into drafting a QB that season.  Beane's lucky that Allen came along.  It was hardly an astonishment of the imagination that we drafted a QB in a QB rich draft, we all knew that they would likely draft a QB, right.  Peterman sucked.  

 

But either way, how much credit are we going to give him for drafting Allen five years ago amidst a slew of poor draft picks generally speaking otherwise.  How long can Beane's reputation live off of a single draft pick.   He's fortunate that he did draft Allen, we're low-end by our "Last 20 Years" standard without Allen.  Also, his lack of ability to draft well is now costing Allen, both injury and wear-n-tear/abuse wise, but also by keeping the offense entirely one-dimensional.  Allen is everything offensively more so than any other team we've had.  

 

He's reasonably taking heat now and has a perfect opportunity to turn an A Draft coming up.  Let's see what he does.  But why am I envisioning a WR in round 1, an OL-man in round 2, and an OLB/DE in round 3.  He's got a lot of holes to fill, but at some point not addressing the OL adequately, and he's been far from that, is going to cost him his job.  We've been drafting DLs rabidly, and shuffling WRs in and out of here annually.  On the OL it's been dumpster-diving with the exception of Morse, who may not be long for the NFL anymore.  Centers age out faster than any other positions.  

 

We need to draft at least two OL-men in rounds 1-3, presumably in the 1st-round.  Our hand is forced at OL just as it was at QB then.  

 

 

 

Agreed on Mahomes, but that was before Beane was hired. Like I said though, you can say Beane got lucky Allen was there, but he did a lot to manuever to get to #7. Past regimes never manuevered to be in position. For example, why not make the leap for Big Ben, instead of getting back in the first for Losman. Beane also had a deal in place with Denver to get to 5, but they wanted Chubb. Allen was Beanes guy and he got him, lucky or not. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, BillsFan2313 said:

Yep. Diggs 5th rd, Hill 5th rd, Adams 2nd rd, Kupp 3rd rd, Jefferson 1st rd mid 20's to name a few. 

 

... and to ride your point, you're never going to land players unless you draft 'em.  

 

In 5 drafts now Beane has used a 5th ('22) Skakir and 4th ('20) Davis on WRs.  That's in in the first 5 rounds.  

 

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Agreed on Mahomes, but that was before Beane was hired. Like I said though, you can say Beane got lucky Allen was there, but he did a lot to manuever to get to #7. Past regimes never manuevered to be in position. For example, why not make the leap for Big Ben, instead of getting back in the first for Losman. Beane also had a deal in place with Denver to get to 5, but they wanted Chubb. Allen was Beanes guy and he got him, lucky or not. 

 

Roger, my mistake, but the rest of the points remain.  Beane can't draft otherwise.  That's why we're even having this conversation.  

 

Again, we can sit here and talk 'til we both fall asleep, LOL, but we have no power to change anything, we're simply pissing into the wind. But Beane has an opportunity, perhaps his last, to stifle his critics and put up an A Draft, which is probably what it's going to take, and unfortunately for him, his picks are going to have to produce to a relatively high level as rookies.  But if he fails to do so, then after 6 seasons and now his own "best" draftees rotating out, how long should he get, and there's not another position that's going to carry him like Allen did, so he's going to sink or swim on his own.  

 

Right now, without better drafting however, we're the Phillips-led Chargers, the Ryan-led Falcons, or the Fouts-led Chargers at best.  ... especially since come playoff time the side of the field that Beane has pumped the greatest round 1 & 2 resources into, routinely allows opponents to score in the 30s.  The franchise has an opportunity to do better.  It's all going to come down to Pegula deciding how long he wants to give our OJT GM an opportunity to do that.  I would strongly suggest that if Allen doesn't start getting some OL-men, that he's going to bail after the '25 season with his opt-out.  Wouldn't you.  That'll do wonders for our PSLs in the new stadium.  

 

Pegula needs to start thinking longer term here, on several issues.  

 

 

 

Edited February 26, 2023 by PBF81