Spencer Brown

[Royale with Cheese]

4 minutes ago, mrags said:

Out of 45 picks that’s not promising. 

 

LOL okay.

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Edited March 22, 2023 by Royale with Cheese

[Solomon Grundy]

2 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

Brace yourself.  I think you're in for a surprise.

Exactly. This organization doesn't give up on their draft picks no matter how bad they've been

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Solomon Grundy said:

Exactly. This organization doesn't give up on their draft picks no matter how bad they've been

 

[mrags]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

LOL okay.

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Blah blah blah. Fact is we don’t start rookies often and the fact that most of them haven’t been very good either is promising 

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, mrags said:

Blah blah blah. Fact is we don’t start rookies often and the fact that most of them haven’t been very good either is promising 

 

I just gave you 7 players that started as rookies, not to mention Milano, Bedford and Elam contributed a lot as well but weren't full time starters.

Dawkins contract extension

White contract extension

Allen contract extension

Edmunds one of the highest paid LB

 

LOL

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/25/2023 at 5:02 AM, newcam2012 said:

Spencer Brown registered a 6.5% Pressure Allowed Percentage per PFF (Among ALL OL with 14 games played). 

That was ranked the 103rd out of 113 players- NOT GOOD

 

I hope the Bills have a great plan to solidify a weak offensive line.

 

I'm not sure what they see in Brown? He's more a liability than an assest thus far. 

 

How confident are we Beane can make the necessary changes and upgrades? How confident are we in Brown? 

 

On 2/25/2023 at 5:15 AM, GunnerBill said:

As a rookie I think what they saw is a run blocking monster with a mean streak who really finishes blocks. The rawness to his pass pro should have been recognised by all. 

 

What they got as a 2nd year guy was no discernable development or refinement as a pass blocker and a regression in the run game. I wonder how much the back surgery and disrupted off season played a part but they need to make sure there is competition for Brown in camp next year. It is a big year for him. He has to solidify his spot or the Bills will be looking to replace him fully in a year from now.

 

If you listen to Beane's off season pressers, he really talks up Brown and his expectation for a bounce back season as he gets further away from his surgery issues.  Beane stated he feels that the back surgery and stuff impacted Brown a lot this season.  

 

I have a feeling they feel better about Brown at RT than most do, and because of that, I am not expecting them to address RT early in the draft unless someone they covet falls in their lap.  I think the more plausible scenario is they won't take a RT in the draft earlier than day 3.   

 

Not saying that is my choice, just listening to Beane talk about Brown leads to me think they are comfortable enough with Brown at RT right now that they don't feel pressure to find an immediate upgrade right now.  But like you said Gunner, this is a make or break year for Brown. 

[mrags]

5 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I just gave you 7 players that started as rookies, not to mention Milano, Bedford and Elam contributed a lot as well but weren't full time starters.

Dawkins contract extension

White contract extension

Allen contract extension

Edmunds one of the highest paid LB

 

LOL

 

 

Edmunds is overrated and didn’t deserve that much. I haven’t liked him as our starting MLB and I’m glad he’s gone. 
 

Dawkins is extremely overrated and doesn’t deserve the money he’s making. He’s only making that much because we suck at drafting players and they have no shot at finding a replacement. My guess is, when his contract is up, unless he takes a pay cut, or moves to LG, he’s gone. But who knows, we probably won’t find anyone in the next 2 seasons to replace him so we’ll just overpay for him like we do to everyone else that’s a fan favorite but overrated for what they provide. 

[Royale with Cheese]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

Edmunds is overrated and didn’t deserve that much. I haven’t liked him as our starting MLB and I’m glad he’s gone. 
 

Dawkins is extremely overrated and doesn’t deserve the money he’s making. He’s only making that much because we suck at drafting players and they have no shot at finding a replacement. My guess is, when his contract is up, unless he takes a pay cut, or moves to LG, he’s gone. But who knows, we probably won’t find anyone in the next 2 seasons to replace him so we’ll just overpay for him like we do to everyone else that’s a fan favorite but overrated for what they provide. 

 

I specifically used this gif because I have a feeling you look like him.

 

[PBF81]

On 2/25/2023 at 8:02 AM, newcam2012 said:

Spencer Brown registered a 6.5% Pressure Allowed Percentage per PFF (Among ALL OL with 14 games played). 

That was ranked the 103rd out of 113 players- NOT GOOD

 

I hope the Bills have a great plan to solidify a weak offensive line.

 

I'm not sure what they see in Brown? He's more a liability than an assest thus far. 

 

How confident are we Beane can make the necessary changes and upgrades? How confident are we in Brown? 

 

Well, looks like he's going to be around this season, it's his third, so let's hope he improves significantly.  I don't think anyone needs rankings for him, we all saw how not-good he was.  The extent to which he sucked can be discussed, but doesn't really matter at this point.  

 

On the flip side, after having done some research on Connor McGovern, he actually seems to be a good pick-up.  Not sure about the contract relative to what else was there, but if he plays the way that he did last season, the left side, Dawkins, McGovern and Morse should be solid.  

 

Having said that, the Cowboys last year also faced a relatively weak schedule in terms of pass-rushing Ds, that will tighten up significantly given our opponents for this season, at least based upon last season's rankings.  

 

Nothin' we can do, kind of watching your kids go out and do things, gotta just see how this plays out for Beane.  The Draft is what is either going to make or break Beane's future here.  If his Draft is more of the same of what he's provided therein the last four years, he's not going to be here much longer.  The performance of the team amidst an increasingly strengthening AFC East will be noticeable.  

 

 

[mrags]

7 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

I specifically used this gif because I have a feeling you look like him.

 

[Simon]

34 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Beane stated he feels that the back surgery and stuff impacted Brown a lot this season.  

 

I'd cling to that except for the fact that the problems he had this year were virtually identical to the ongoing problems he had the year before when he was healthy i.e. he just doesn't have the feet to play T at this level.

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

I'd cling to that except for the fact that the problems he had this year were virtually identical to the ongoing problems he had the year before when he was healthy i.e. he just doesn't have the feet to play T at this level.

 

Oh yeah, I have the same concerns.  I do think his rookie year was encouraging enough that it was reasonable to have an optimistic outlook on him continuing to develop, but it definitely wasn't at the level where you could say he was the long term solution at RT.  And last year was a train wreck.  

 

I hope I am wrong and we at least bring in competition for him in the first half of the draft as I think he is the biggest question mark on the OL at this moment.  But, like I said, I think Beane's comments lend more towards they don't feel pressure to go get a guy earlier in the draft.

[Shanahan's Horseshoe]

Beane’s one of the worst GMs when it comes picking both DL and OL.  His adoration for Brown highlights another problem he has -  He doesn’t pivot when it’s obvious.  Hopefully he’s learned his lessons after 4 awful drafts 

[Simon]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Oh yeah, I have the same concerns.  I do think his rookie year was encouraging enough that it was reasonable to have an optimistic outlook on him continuing to develop, but it definitely wasn't at the level where you could say he was the long term solution at RT.  And last year was a train wreck.  

 

I hope I am wrong and we at least bring in competition for him in the first half of the draft as I think he is the biggest question mark on the OL at this moment.  But, like I said, I think Beane's comments lend more towards they don't feel pressure to go get a guy earlier in the draft.

 

I'm hoping Bean is laying down smokescreens so that nobody trades in front of us to take an OT we like.

I love the way Spencer plays the game but I think he needs protection on his flanks. A 6'7" Guard flies in the face of tradition but I'd love to teh see the Bills try it just to be able to keep him on the field.

[Charles Romes]

1 hour ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Exactly. This organization doesn't give up on their draft picks no matter how bad they've been

So we will need to watch Bernard this year?

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

LOL okay.

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

Good info...however, a lot of fans don't see this info the same.  A lot of guys who were consistent starters, especially ones drafted in first 2 to 3 rounds, will be seen as busts by fan bases because they expect all this picks to be studs or pro bowlers, and that just isn't the case. 

 

My favorite part is when people call players "busts" then say to trade them for like a 2nd round pick.  LOL

 

[Paup 1995MVP]

58 minutes ago, mrags said:

Edmunds is overrated and didn’t deserve that much. I haven’t liked him as our starting MLB and I’m glad he’s gone. 
 

Dawkins is extremely overrated and doesn’t deserve the money he’s making. He’s only making that much because we suck at drafting players and they have no shot at finding a replacement. My guess is, when his contract is up, unless he takes a pay cut, or moves to LG, he’s gone. But who knows, we probably won’t find anyone in the next 2 seasons to replace him so we’ll just overpay for him like we do to everyone else that’s a fan favorite but overrated for what they provide. 

I agree with you about both Edmunds and Dawkins.  The contract that Chicago gave Edmunds was laughable.  We should bring in at least one solid tackle to compete with Dawkins and Brown.  Competition is important.  Unless you are the best at what you do (see Anthony Munoz, Tony Bosselli, Larry Allen, even Jason Peters in his prime) guys need competition to raise their game.  The Bills seem to shy away from this for some reason.  

[EasternOHBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

LOL okay.

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

 

Where did you get this information from? How far back does it go?

[Nephilim17]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

LOL okay.

 

Historic Success Chart

The numbers show us the following outline for finding consistent starters:

1st Round - OL (83%) LB (70%) TE (67%) DB (64%) QB (63%) WR (58%) RB (58%) DL (58%)

2nd Round - OL (70%) LB (55%) TE (50%) WR (49%) DB (46%) QB (27%) DL (26%) RB (25%)

3rd Round - OL (40%) TE (39%) LB (34%) DL (27%) WR (25%) DB (24%) QB (17%) RB (16%)

4th Round - DL (37%) TE (33%) OL (29%) LB (16%) WR(12%) DB (11%) RB (11%) QB (8%)

5th Round - TE (32%) DB (17%) WR (16%) OL (16%) DL (13%) RB (9%) LB (4%) QB (0%)

6th Round - TE (26%) OL (16%) DL (13%) WR (9%) DB (8%) RB (6%) LB (5%) QB (0%)

7th Round - DB (11%) OL (9%) QB (6%) WR (5%) DL (3%) LB (2%) RB (0%) TE (0%)

Yikes. every position in the third round is 40% or well below for success. In my head I would have thought the numbers would be better for that round. 

And it looks like the Chiefs beat math (0% success rate for drafting backs in the 7th round) with Pacheco.

My advice to Beane: give the scout(s) who said draft Milano and Teller a raise (or rehire them); give the scouts who said draft Epenesa and Basham brooms.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

 

If you listen to Beane's off season pressers, he really talks up Brown and his expectation for a bounce back season as he gets further away from his surgery issues.  Beane stated he feels that the back surgery and stuff impacted Brown a lot this season.  

 

I have a feeling they feel better about Brown at RT than most do, and because of that, I am not expecting them to address RT early in the draft unless someone they covet falls in their lap.  I think the more plausible scenario is they won't take a RT in the draft earlier than day 3.   

 

Not saying that is my choice, just listening to Beane talk about Brown leads to me think they are comfortable enough with Brown at RT right now that they don't feel pressure to find an immediate upgrade right now.  But like you said Gunner, this is a make or break year for Brown. 

Sadly, I feel the same way about Gabe. Beane loves him too.