Fake-Fat Sunny Posted September 10, 2004 Posted September 10, 2004 Since Dallas selected Troy Aikman in the 1st round in 1989 there has been no QB drafted in the first round since then who has won an SB. Having finally won a playoff game last year, Manning looks like the likeliest possibility, but the losing results of Indy last night provides continued testimony why the Mannings and the McNabbs may fall short again when the final accounting on this year is done. Last year was a good year for 1st round picks because thanks to a brainfart by Farve, Manning at McNabb made it a 50-50 shot that the 2003 season would at leas see a 1st round selected QB would at lleast make the big game for the first time since McNair steered the Titans there in 1999. This 50/50 shot exceeded the usual 1 out of 4 shot that QBs drafted in the 1st round bring to the league championships (mostly courtesy of 3 consecutive championship losing efforts by McNabb teams) but alas and alack it was snakeyes again for 1st round QB choices. Perhaps folks want to give Blkedsoe credit for the the 2001 season Pats win. granted he did play an essential role in this victory as he threw the winning TD and played QB for the majority of a must-win game for the Pats that year, but clearly it was Brady's team and he deserves the lionshare (though not all) of the QB credit for that team. I guess JP Losman is rooting for Bledsoe to be the 1st round QB pick that will break the chain of failure of all 1st round QB selections since 1989 to deliver the big win for his team. However, it is beginning to look like a better bet that Losman himself might be the one to break the chain.
JimBob2232 Posted September 10, 2004 Posted September 10, 2004 With Manning, McNabb, Cullpepper, Vick, Bledsoe, Pennington and Leftwich, this will be broken in short order..dont worry
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted September 10, 2004 Author Posted September 10, 2004 With Manning, McNabb, Cullpepper, Vick, Bledsoe, Pennington and Leftwich, this will be broken in short order..dont worry 25761[/snapback] Could be, but if it is it will be the first time someone drafted since 1989 has produced the ultimate result in a decade and a half of the players you mentioned trying to be as good as the folks drafted in the 80s like Elway and Aikman. Its ironic to me that the focus and importance which most fans place on the QB has been unaccompanied by any achievement of footballs ultimate goal. I think the QB class of 1983 was a big part of the 80s being declared the era of the QB, but the 90s and beyond probably should be declared the era of the late-round drafted QB. The Bradys of the world seem to have inherited the mantle of the Montanas.
LabattBlue Posted September 10, 2004 Posted September 10, 2004 Dilfer was drafted 6th overall in 1994. Didn't he QB Baltimore to a SB victory??
USMCBillsFan Posted September 10, 2004 Posted September 10, 2004 Dilfer was drafted 6th overall in 1994. Didn't he QB Baltimore to a SB victory?? 25816[/snapback] Yep, and was promptly discarded.
LabattBlue Posted September 10, 2004 Posted September 10, 2004 Yep, and was promptly discarded. 25826[/snapback] Just stating a fact.
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted September 11, 2004 Author Posted September 11, 2004 Just stating a fact. 25830[/snapback] You are right and I should have added that the point I was making which is relevant to the Bills is that no player has won an SB for the team which drafted him, In the Dilfer case and in other cases quality QBs are available on the waiver wire and drafting one and putting your team in hock does not seem to be a good strategy at all.
SDS Posted September 11, 2004 Posted September 11, 2004 Elway also won a couple... drafted before Aikman, but won after him.
HopsGuy Posted September 11, 2004 Posted September 11, 2004 It would be interesting to know how many of the 38 Super Bowls were won by teams that had a 1st round QB (that they drafted) at the helm. I'll take a shot, but Lori should really be doing this. Since I've been a fan (Sep '78 when my dad took me to Rich to see the Bills vs. the Steelers): Steelers (4) - Bradshaw (2 before I was a fan, two after) Cowboys (4) - Staubach (1), Aikman (3) Bears (1) - McMahon Giants (1) - Simms Broncos (2) - Elway Montana (4) was taken in the 3rd round. Joe Thiesmann (1) was a 4th round choice. Jim Plunkett won 2 SBs with the Raiders but was taken in the first round by the Patriots. Jeff Hostetler (1) was a 3rd round pick. Doug Williams (1) was a first round pick, but for the Bucs. Mark Rypien (1) was a 6th round choice. Steve Young (1) was a first round pick for the Bucs (and the LA Express). Brett Favre (1)was a 2nd round pick. Kurt Warner (1) was a free agent for the Rams. Trent Dilfer was a first round pick for the Bucs (I sense a pattern here). Tom Brady (2) was a 6th round choice for the Pats. Brad Johnson (1) was taken in the 9th round So for my 26 Super Bowls, 10 or 38% were won by players taken in the first round by that team. That goes up to 57% (17/26) if you include first rounders that won for teams other than those that drafted them. You see, careful analysis like this makes it so simple. Unfortunately, I have no idea what it means.
Kelly the Dog Posted September 11, 2004 Posted September 11, 2004 Elway was, of course, not drafted by the team he led to the Super Bowl, like Dilfer.
Fake-Fat Sunny Posted September 11, 2004 Author Posted September 11, 2004 Elway also won a couple... drafted before Aikman, but won after him. 26747[/snapback] Actually the distinction (and certainly any distinction is going to be somewhat pedantic) was based on when the last time a team made a QB draft choice in the first round which delivered them an SB win. Thus the selection of Elway would be a choice made in the early 80s (and actually would be a choice which failed to deliver the goods for Indy draft selection, though Denver deserves kudos for making a good trad decision. Overall, I think Elway is another example of how because team's often are forced into draft decisions which do not serve their interests (Indy that year and San Diego this year) a team which puts itself in a good position can rape the team that is trying to get out of their over-investment in the draft (Denver that year and NYG this year). It would be interesting to be a fly inside of TDs head to see what he really thinks of the draft (or more accurately its 1st round). it appears to this outside observer that TD has actually made a general decision that 1st round draft choices (Particularly early ones) are rarely worth the investment in a player. He has certainly treated his 1st round choices as tools which he can use to speculate with and get real services which contribute to the team and less as a tool for getting a valuable player. His actions have been: 2001- Traded down picking up additional lower round resources (which proved invaluable to a rebuilding team which needed bodies) and played the market correctly so that he still got the first CVB selected. 2002- More conventional dealings so that he used the early pick to get Mike Williams, but he traded his 1st rounder in 2002 to get immediate help at QB in upograding from RJ to Bledsoe. 2003- Parlayed PP leaving as an FA where the Bill by rule would get nothing for him by tagging him and trading for a 1st round pick. Yet, rather than draft and pay the slotted rate for #23, he speculated by getting WM whom because he was hurt he got him to sign for a divided bonus and was able to get this player projected as top-5 talent before his injury for #23 money. Even better, he again read the market extremely well as he was able to get the player many assumed he would take with #23 with his second round pick to help fill DL needs. 2004- Again he made more conventional use of his pick getting Evans, but he traded his 2005 first rounder to move up to get Losman. The Losman deal (even despite the injury) looks like a good one as the QB pool for 2005 looks fairly bleak and Losman ranking vis-a-vis the top 3 QBs taken increased prior to his injury. In fact, there is a reasonable case to be made that Losman really needed to spend 2004 as the Bill's disaster QB and learn the game at Sam Wyche's knee. There is a good case to be made that their is no replacement for the experience gained against NFL players working at gamespeed and Losman will not get that. However, Losman will get the advantage of spending the majority of 2005 studying and concentrating on the game without the caterwhauling of the press creating a QB controversy as soon as Bledsoe has a bad game. Kyle Boller said last year that the amazing thing he got from his injury was to find that there were things one could learn about being a productive NFL QB when you were forced to sit and watch that you could not learn when you were focusing on being prepared to play. I hope this is true. The Bills need to be aggressive about making Losman Wyche's pupil. If they do this and Losman recovers fully from the injury and learns an actual lesson about being careful at all times because you never know what some idiot will do and also that being full of yourself is useful against opponents but not in building leadership in the team, then i think we will benefit from Losman's enforced sitting. The boy looks good and practice at NFL speeds is great but that is not what he needs most in my mind to contribute to the Bills.
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