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A really interesting new predictive test for QB and other positional success - from the Athletic


Lothar

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Elam was a healthy scratch at one point this season. It took awhile for Cook to get back on the field after fumbling his first game. Bernard could never get on the field. Shakir struggled to make an impact despite having the most separation among rookie WRs (2.4 yards). Benford started out decent, got injured, and when he was healthy enough to return, he didn’t.

Doesn’t mean the ‘22 draft class sucks, but the Bills haven’t been too kind to their rooks.

Edited by JayBaller10
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28 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

Elam was a healthy scratch at one point this season. It took awhile for Cook to get back on the field after fumbling his first game. Bernard could never get on the field. Shakir struggled to make an impact despite having the most separation among rookie WRs (2.4 yards). Benford started out decent, got injured, and when he was healthy enough to return, he didn’t.

Doesn’t mean the ‘22 draft class sucks, but the Bills haven’t been too kind to their rooks.


Not to pile on, but Dane Jackson played well in ‘21 when he came in for Tre. I thought be was much better than Wallace. 
 

The for the first half of this year he was lights out. If I remember correctly he was allowing something like 48% completion percentage, minimal YAC. He was playing like a legit starting corner. Then somehow the wheels just fell off. It was weird. 
 

I was really high on Jackson, and now he’s just a head scratcher. 
 

The entire team just started to come apart at the seems just after the bye. He played really well in the 4 games after Hyde went down. And Von didn’t go out until Thanksgiving.

 

I just don’t get it. 
 

 

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1 hour ago, Mango said:


Not to pile on, but Dane Jackson played well in ‘21 when he came in for Tre. I thought be was much better than Wallace. 
 

The for the first half of this year he was lights out. If I remember correctly he was allowing something like 48% completion percentage, minimal YAC. He was playing like a legit starting corner. Then somehow the wheels just fell off. It was weird. 
 

I was really high on Jackson, and now he’s just a head scratcher. 
 

The entire team just started to come apart at the seems just after the bye. He played really well in the 4 games after Hyde went down. And Von didn’t go out until Thanksgiving.

 

I just don’t get it. 
 

 

As for why the entire team seemed to regress after the bye, specifically the Packers game at half, maybe it was the weight of expectations. That’s all I can come up with.

 

Earlier in the year it looked like everyone was having fun, they had a swagger, chests were poked out. I remember after the first two games one of the talking heads was saying “could the Bills go undefeated? This has the same feel of that Patriots season” and then the wheels came off. The worst teams in the league were hanging with the Bills. They no longer looked dominant, confident, or like they were having fun. In hindsight looking back, it reminded me of Aikman going into the tunnel at halftime of SB 28 against the Bills and finding it interesting that the team was hanging their heads despite being up on the scoreboard.

The weight of expectations is all I can come up with. This team needs a shrink.

 

EDIT: I would’ve loved to see how the Bills from earlier in the year would’ve fared against that playoff Bengal team. The defense still would’ve had the wrong game plan, but I think the overall mindset of the team was just in a much different place. They were hungrier. I think they would’ve showed why Vegas favored them by 6 at home. 

Edited by JayBaller10
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3 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

As for why the entire team seemed to regress after the bye, specifically the Packers game at half, maybe it was the weight of expectations. That’s all I can come up with.

 

Earlier in the year it looked like everyone was having fun, they had a swagger, chests were poked out. I remember after the first two games one of the talking heads was saying “could the Bills go undefeated? This has the same feel of that Patriots season” and then the wheels came off. The worst teams in the league were hanging with the Bills. They no longer looked dominant, confident, or like they were having fun. In hindsight looking back, it reminded me of Aikman going into the tunnel at halftime of SB 28 against the Bills and finding it interesting that the team was hanging their heads despite being up on the scoreboard.

The weight of expectations is all I can come up with. This team needs a shrink.

Injuries piled up. Injuries send ripple effects throughout the entire team. A team can handle having one or two starters injured, but once you have 3, 4, 5, 6 etc, it gets less and less manageable. The Bills had a ton of starters out on defense. Everyone looks worse when that happens.

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14 minutes ago, MJS said:

Injuries piled up. Injuries send ripple effects throughout the entire team. A team can handle having one or two starters injured, but once you have 3, 4, 5, 6 etc, it gets less and less manageable. The Bills had a ton of starters out on defense. Everyone looks worse when that happens.

Injuries certainly played a role as to why they weren’t as strong as they were earlier in the year, but something was off mentally as well - and that was before the Damar Hamlin incident. They just didn’t look the same, didn’t have the same fire. They were decently healthy in terms of player availability against the Bengals (I know guys were nicked up and playing), but they didn’t look like they belonged on the same field. A week earlier they flirted with losing to a Dolphins team that started a 3rd string QB. Injuries were a factor, but in my opinion it was something greater. 

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10 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Interesting piece in The Athletic. Note that if you subscribe to the NYT, you get the Athletic now; otherwise you have to pay for it or it’s paywalled. 
 

https://theathletic.com/4226466/2023/02/24/nfl-quarterbacks-s2-cognition-test/

 

It’s about the S2 cognition test. Key quote (regarding Josh Allen):

 

’He couldn’t give out Purdy’s exact score because it’s privileged information but said it was in the “mid 90s.” That’s about where Brees, the former Saints quarterback famous for lightning-fast decision-making, scored and where two of the top passers in the league now, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bills’ Josh Allen, also landed. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow took the test while at LSU and agreed to allow S2 to disclose the information.  Of course he did — he scored in the 97th percentile.’

 

Also:

 

’The highest S2 score in last year’s draft class, in fact, was turned in by a cornerback, Trent McDuffie, who started 15 games for the Chiefs, including the Super Bowl.’

 

I remain convinced that the Bills really wanted McDuffie but were beaten to the punch by KC. In desperation (not a criticism!), they then moved up to get the last round-one quality CB, Elam. KC moved ahead of the Bills by trading their 50th pick to NE. McDuffie is obviously a better player at this point than Elam, but it’s early. His test results suggest he’ll be a very good player provided he stays healthy.

 

McDuffie is the player the Chiefs jumped in front of us to grab. While Beane sat on his hands.

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Couple thoughts here. 

 

1st...McDuffie.  KC has a type they like to draft at CB, similar to the Bills...longer, taller guys....so again, I can't say who they wanted (they sure looked sad about KC jumping in front for McDuffie in that war room video)  ...but KC went outside the mold because they thought highly enough of his skill set to trade up and get him.  KC...justified or not, thought they had to get in front of the Bills to do it.  

 

2nd.  Just a note on Mahomes scoring high on this test....back when he was doing visits etc...Gruden LOVED Mahomes...but also, pre draft, KC had Mahomes and Watson both in...it leaked out that Watson sucked on the whiteboard and quesitons, while Mahomes shined.  Now....clearly you don't have to be a brainiac to be a really good QB becaue pre massage Watson was pretty good...whatever his test scores and whiteboard acumen....but I think we've seen enough of both Mahomes and Allen to see that their QB intelligence shows up on gameday.

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13 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Interesting piece in The Athletic. Note that if you subscribe to the NYT, you get the Athletic now; otherwise you have to pay for it or it’s paywalled. 
 

https://theathletic.com/4226466/2023/02/24/nfl-quarterbacks-s2-cognition-test/

 

It’s about the S2 cognition test. Key quote (regarding Josh Allen):

 

’He couldn’t give out Purdy’s exact score because it’s privileged information but said it was in the “mid 90s.” That’s about where Brees, the former Saints quarterback famous for lightning-fast decision-making, scored and where two of the top passers in the league now, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bills’ Josh Allen, also landed. The Bengals’ Joe Burrow took the test while at LSU and agreed to allow S2 to disclose the information.  Of course he did — he scored in the 97th percentile.’

 

Also:

 

’The highest S2 score in last year’s draft class, in fact, was turned in by a cornerback, Trent McDuffie, who started 15 games for the Chiefs, including the Super Bowl.’

 

I remain convinced that the Bills really wanted McDuffie but were beaten to the punch by KC. In desperation (not a criticism!), they then moved up to get the last round-one quality CB, Elam. KC moved ahead of the Bills by trading their 50th pick to NE. McDuffie is obviously a better player at this point than Elam, but it’s early. His test results suggest he’ll be a very good player provided he stays healthy.

Completely believe we were duped by KC with McDuffie and doubled down on the desperation trade up for a avg cb in the first round...

Edited by DieHardBillsFan
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