The Myth of the Bills over-focusing on defense in the Draft and FA

[Straight Hucklebuck]

31 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I don’t disagree that they have invested too little on offense.  I just want to recognize that, while it hasn’t worked the way they thought it would, the strategy did make some sense in attempt to counter the Chiefs’ stellar offense.  Bills’ offense were not having trouble keeping up with the Chiefs’ offense.  It was the defense that could not stop the Chiefs.

 

Now, it is time to try a different tact. It is time to get some help for Allen.  I’m hoping for some good and significant investment in OL and a pass catching weapon, yet where they need most help on OL (IOL) seems to be a weak draft class and they will have to be lucky to find a good WR prospect in this group - either in FA or draft.  That makes the prior lack of investment in offense more frustrating, of course.

 

 

They have to get their hands on one of the following WRs in the first round:

 

Jaxon Smith-Ngijba

Zay Flowers

Jalin Hyatt

Jordan Addison

 

Because it’s a drop off to:
Josh Downs

Tank Dell

Rashee Rice 

Parker Washington 

 

Hoping that one of them with fall to #59. 

[Nextmanup]

17 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

but the first round is more important than any other round. 

Ya think?

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

14 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Epenesa has as many or more sacks than Marlon Davidson, Yetur Gross-Matos, K’Lavon Chaisson, Chase Young - ALL DEs drafted ahead of him in 2020.  Chase Young was the 3rd overall pick and Chaisson went 20th.  Epenesa was the 54th selection.

 

That's nice.  Sacks are nice. We heard a lot about the Eagles "70 sacks", yet they were 9th in pass D and 8th in points allowed and could not stop a crippled Mahomes in the one game that mattered.

 

Anyway, There are  4 guys drafted after Epenesa  with more sacks.  He had 6.5 this year--that makes him better than Demarcus Lawrence, Frank Clark, Daniele Hunter, Calais Campbell! Young has been injured, but he was a Pro Bowl rookie. Mattos is a starter in his 3rd year with over 100 tackles.

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

24 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

They have to get their hands on one of the following WRs in the first round:

 

Jaxon Smith-Ngijba

Zay Flowers

Jalin Hyatt

Jordan Addison

 

Because it’s a drop off to:
Josh Downs

Tank Dell

Rashee Rice 

Parker Washington 

 

Hoping that one of them with fall to #59. 

I really like Downs in that 2nd group, but I he will be gone long before the Bills’ 2nd pick.  In that 2nd group only Rice is a true outside receiver, rest are really slot guys.  I don’t know that Rice has the separation ability to get open consistently and , while he can show good hands, they are inconsistent.  Parker Washington is interesting, but late 2nd might be a little high for him.  

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

That's nice.  Sacks are nice. We heard a lot about the Eagles "70 sacks", yet they were 9th in pass D and 8th in points allowed and could not stop a crippled Mahomes in the one game that mattered.

 

Anyway, There are  4 guys drafted after Epenesa  with more sacks.  He had 6.5 this year--that makes him better than Demarcus Lawrence, Frank Clark, Daniele Hunter, Calais Campbell! Young has been injured, but he was a Pro Bowl rookie. Mattos is a starter in his 3rd year with over 100 tackles.

 

 

My point wasn’t that Epenesa is great, more that there were a lot of DEs who haven’t risen to the levels “expected” of their draft slots.

[Mr. WEO]

22 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I really like Downs in that 2nd group, but I he will be gone long before the Bills’ 2nd pick.  In that 2nd group only Rice is a true outside receiver, rest are really slot guys.  I don’t know that Rice has the separation ability to get open consistently and , while he can show good hands, they are inconsistent.  Parker Washington is interesting, but late 2nd might be a little high for him.  

My point wasn’t that Epenesa is great, more that there were a lot of DEs who haven’t risen to the levels “expected” of their draft slots.

 

The point here that he is another of several such on the Bills roster. 

[OldTimer1960]

9 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

The point here that he is another of several such on the Bills roster. 

No significant disagreement about that.  

[Watching since 1964]

If only McD’s/Frazier’s defense defended as fiercely in big games as some posters defend some of the beyond questionable decisions from OBD!😊

[Sharky7337]

The Bruce Nolan article pretty much proves this whole post wrong.

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The one thing they haven't tried on the O line since 2019 is high draft picks (1st or 2nd round) or top end free agents.  This I think is the crux of the problem.  If the Bills got the O line right, with the current defensive & play making talent on the roster they would win a Super Bowl.  This is what is so frustrating to many Bills fans.  Fix the damn line by going for QUALITY not bargain basement fire sales.

 

 

 

 

Sounds good in theory but in reality 1st round guards, centers and right tackles aren't good investments in round 1 either.

 

LT's.......yes those are........and they are at the stage with Dion Dawkins where they need to get one in as soon as possible.

 

They need better guard play.........and guards are probably the best value in UFA in most years.  

 

Unfortunately Beane has been terrible in free agency in general.     

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I really like Downs in that 2nd group, but I he will be gone long before the Bills’ 2nd pick.  In that 2nd group only Rice is a true outside receiver, rest are really slot guys.  I don’t know that Rice has the separation ability to get open consistently and , while he can show good hands, they are inconsistent.  Parker Washington is interesting, but late 2nd might be a little high for him.  

My point wasn’t that Epenesa is great, more that there were a lot of DEs who haven’t risen to the levels “expected” of their draft slots.

This FO makes a career finding DE's that don't live up to their draft slots.

[OldTimer1960]

34 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

This FO makes a career finding DE's that don't live up to their draft slots.

Come on, Rousseau played pretty damn well until he suffered a high ankle sprain in week 9.  It also didn’t help that Von Miller got hurt on the other side.  
 

There is a logical position somewhere between “everything is perfect” and “fire everyone - they suck”.  I don’t think anyone is saying that everything is perfect or that the team has had some misses and maybe ignored the offense too much in the draft, yet the team was 13-3 in a year when they suffered a lot of injuries concentrated in the secondary, lost their star acquisition (Miller) and played the back half of the season with Allen’s elbow injury.  They have won 3 straight division championships, surely they deserve some credit for that.  Do they need to course-correct?  Sure, that is warranted and I am certain that Beane would acknowledge that as well.

 

[Beck Water]

22 hours ago, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

I've seen this argument before, and the overall numbrs are indeed relatively equal.  The offensive contributions aren't helped by the fact that a number of the Bills high picks on offense - Zay Jones, Cody Ford, and Zack Moss - washed out.

 

BUT when you look under the hood, there's a bit of a different story.  Another thread linked an excellent article by Bruce Exclusive on this point:

 

 

Here's the direct link to the actual actual article:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/2/23/23611065/predicting-buffalo-bills-succession-problems-through-draft-capital-expenditure-research

 

He actually goes into the POINT VALUES expended in each draft at each position and sums it up by position and by offense or defense

Quote

Point expenditure by position:

QB – 434 points (17.9%)

RB – 195 points (8.0%)

WR – 44 points (1.8%)

TE – 41 points (1.7%)

OL – 221 points (9.1%)

DL – 814 points (33.6%)

LB – 366 points (15.1%)

DB – 298 points (12.3%)

Specialists – 11 points (0.5%)

Point expenditure by side of ball:

Offense – 935 (38.5%)

Defense – 1478 (61%)

Specialists – 11 points (0.5%)

 

Now there's a caveat here, that he doesn't include the roughly 200 point equivalent of trading a 1st round pick for Stefon Diggs.

BUT he's talking overall about young, cost controlled talent, and from that POV his conclusions are valid:

1) the Bills have NOT spent equally on offense vs defense

2) the Bills have particularly under- spent on OL vs DL and on WR vs RB or DB

3) he points that a good bit of the Bills offensive draft resources have in fact gone towards RBs, which is considered an inefficient use of resources given that RBs are regarded as a position at which it's relatively easy to acquire production

 

Bottom line: while your high level view is correct, when one gets into the details of the VALUE of draft picks used, it's pretty clear that in fact the Bills have over-focused on DL, LB, and DB vs OL, WR, and TE.

 

 

22 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Thanks and I agree.

 

This board is victim to incredible recency bias and groupthink.  A few posters come up with an idea and suddenly is is all the rage and many accept it as gold.  Another current and similar thread is we need one offensive minded head coach and also Dorsey sucks, blah blah blah.

 

Frankly, this kind of response shows just as much superficial  "groupthink" in a different way.  There are people here who think that the Bills have overspent draft resources on D vs O and in particular underspent on OL, WR, and TE who can make a specific and cogent argument, as linked in another thread and laid out above.

 

It's really not the same as knee-jerk coach-bashing, and even there, cogent and specific arguments can and have been made.

Edited February 25, 2023 by Beck Water

[Thurman#1]

On 2/25/2023 at 6:39 AM, uticaclub said:

Bernard was selected for special teams, another area we spend too much cap on

 

 

There's no particular reason to think this.

 

He's been used mostly for that in his first year but there's every reason to think they at least hoped he'd be used for other things. And may well still be.

[uticaclub]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

There's no particular reason to think this.

 

He's been used mostly for that in his first year but there's every reason to think they at least hoped he'd be used for other things. And may well still be.

If they drafted him other than for special team based on his size and skillset, then the house needed to clean last year. Its ***** bull#### they are this bad at talent evaluation. Nate Peterman over AJ McCarron for Josh’s rookie year. Give me a ***** break. 

[Kirby Jackson]

On 2/24/2023 at 3:47 PM, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.]

 

But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. 

[Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs]

 

So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total.

 

I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time).

 

You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

Kelvin Benjamin is the only 1st round selection that Josh Allen has played with on offense!! Unacceptable

Edited February 26, 2023 by Kirby Jackson

[Beck Water]

8 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

There's no particular reason to think this.

 

He's been used mostly for that in his first year but there's every reason to think they at least hoped he'd be used for other things. And may well still be.

 

Yeah, one thing to keep in mind when looking at the use of some of our rookies.  When Matt Milano was a rookie and seeing regular playing time by mid-season, he was competing for snaps with Ramon Humber in his 6th year, on a defense in the bottom half of the league.

 

Terrel Bernard is competing for snaps against two guys in the prime of their careers, on statistically a top defense.

[CoudyBills]

On 2/24/2023 at 6:50 PM, PBF81 said:

 

Playoffs ... 

 

Edmunds:  0 Sacks, 0 QB Hits, 1 TFL 

Bernard:  Nada 

 

Ford wasn't even on the team, Brown didn't play well. 

 

Singletary 110 yards from scrimmage in both playoff games combined, 0 TDs 

Cook 52 rushing yards on 3 ypc, 1 rushing TD in both games 

Moss wasn't around 

 

Davis had one good game against Miami but did almost nothing against Cinci 

 

Knox 85 yards and 1 TD in both games combined 

 

Rousseau 0 sacks, 0 TFL, 1 QB Hit in both games combined 

Epenesa Nada 

 

Oliver 1 sack, 1 TFL, 3 QB Hits in the Miami game (Thompson), Nada in the Cinci game.  

Basham 1 sack, 1 TFL, 2 QB Hits in the Miami game (Thompson), Nada in the Cinci game 

Phillips was long gone 

 

That's what you're defending.  Meanwhile, Cinci's draft picks from 2018 - 2022 had great games against us.  I'm guessing that a bunch of Miami's draft picks from that same time frame did better overall than ours did.  

 

Either way, a couple of players had good games against Skylar Thompson.  No one else did at any time.  

 

You have won the argument 

[CoudyBills]

On 2/24/2023 at 7:00 PM, OldTimer1960 said:

Epenesa has as many or more sacks than Marlon Davidson, Yetur Gross-Matos, K’Lavon Chaisson, Chase Young - ALL DEs drafted ahead of him in 2020.  Chase Young was the 3rd overall pick and Chaisson went 20th.  Epenesa was the 54th selection.

43 games played vs 27 and missing a year to ACL.  These 2 are not comparable.

[Thurman#1]

 

 

 

On 2/26/2023 at 2:09 AM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Sounds good in theory but in reality 1st round guards, centers and right tackles aren't good investments in round 1 either.

 

LT's.......yes those are........and they are at the stage with Dion Dawkins where they need to get one in as soon as possible.

 

They need better guard play.........and guards are probably the best value in UFA in most years.  

 

Unfortunately Beane has been terrible in free agency in general.     

 

 

Um, no, the reality is that 1st round interior OLs have been terrific investments. They aren't common. And yes, there's an opportunity cost to picking a guard (or anything else, actually). But guards taken in the first have been excellent players at an extremely high rate.

 

And saying Beane has been terrible in FA is just wrong. Dumb, really. Far from perfect, of course, which will be true of any GM at anything once the sample size gets large enough. But Von Miller, DaQuan Jones, Daryl Williams, Emanuel Sanders, Cole Beasley, John Brown, Mitch Morse, Jordan Phillips

 

Goes without saying there have been some bad ones too, of course, with Saffold standing out. They shouldn't have let Kromer talk them into him. Plenty of others over the six years, but that is the way these things go. 

 

Some folks on here, not to name names, consistently argue that Beane is a poor drafter and that he's been bad at FA. 

 

Which would make it downright amazing that they're competitive for Super Bowls every year.

On 2/26/2023 at 7:03 PM, uticaclub said:

If they drafted him other than for special team based on his size and skillset, then the house needed to clean last year. Its ***** bull#### they are this bad at talent evaluation. Nate Peterman over AJ McCarron for Josh’s rookie year. Give me a ***** break. 

 

 

Yeah, that's more nonsense as well.

 

And I'm surprised how on target you are here. It is indeed bull#### that they are bad at talent evaluation. They aren't.  13-3 makes that very clear, consistent competitiveness does as well.

[Thurman#1]

On 2/25/2023 at 8:50 AM, PBF81 said:

 

Playoffs ... 

 

Edmunds:  0 Sacks, 0 QB Hits, 1 TFL 

Bernard:  Nada 

 

Ford wasn't even on the team, Brown didn't play well. 

 

Singletary 110 yards from scrimmage in both playoff games combined, 0 TDs 

Cook 52 rushing yards on 3 ypc, 1 rushing TD in both games 

Moss wasn't around 

 

Davis had one good game against Miami but did almost nothing against Cinci 

 

Knox 85 yards and 1 TD in both games combined 

 

Rousseau 0 sacks, 0 TFL, 1 QB Hit in both games combined 

Epenesa Nada 

 

Oliver 1 sack, 1 TFL, 3 QB Hits in the Miami game (Thompson), Nada in the Cinci game.  

Basham 1 sack, 1 TFL, 2 QB Hits in the Miami game (Thompson), Nada in the Cinci game 

Phillips was long gone 

 

That's what you're defending.  Meanwhile, Cinci's draft picks from 2018 - 2022 had great games against us.  I'm guessing that a bunch of Miami's draft picks from that same time frame did better overall than ours did.  

 

Either way, a couple of players had good games against Skylar Thompson.  No one else did at any time.  

 

 

 

Josh Allen too. 48 for 81, for 616 yards and 3 TDs and 3 INTs. Obviously he sucks too, by your dumb argument. He's clearly a bust and we ought to think about getting rid of him.

 

Sorry, this is just stupid. The fact is that the whole team played awful against the Bengals. An awful lot of it was an deep bunch of injuries on defense and the emotional effects of this whole bizarre season including Hamlin literally dying on the field came home to roost. 

 

These kinds of results are what happens when you restrict the field you are looking at all the way down to one or two games. Particularly when the whole team played bad in the second game. You end up with the typical results of looking at an extremely small sample size, which is to say plenty of freakish uncharacteristic results.