The Myth of the Bills over-focusing on defense in the Draft and FA

[Einstein's Dog]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The draft value of a 1st round pick is much, much higher than any subsequent rounds.    It's value essentially trumps the value of the rest of your pick

 

It's the value of the investment.

 

And no........Stefon Diggs does not count as a first round pick.........he cost a first round pick+.......but he also cost about $15M aav so he was essentially a hedged bet between a draft pick and free agency.    It's like saying Rob Johnson or Drew Bledsoe were first round picks of the Bills...........an argument oft-used by Bills fans who didn't think the Bills should expend first round picks on QB prospects.   

 

And I mean your work isn't even close to accurate.........the Bills traded picks to move up for Josh Allen that you didn't account for..........they traded the Sammy Watkins pick in round 2 to move up for Tremaine Edmunds.........they traded their own #3 for Kelvin Benjamin...........it's not a very thorough analysis.

 

But when you say Stefon is a first round + that means the FO invested even more in the Offense.  Same with when you move up for Josh, that's a big investment in the offense.  

 

While the OP's is flawed, the lazy narrative that the FO neglects the offense is also flawed.

 

With all that said, I'll be disappointed if the FO doesn't put some resources into the O this offseason.  I believe they will.

[PBF81]

55 minutes ago, Mango said:

That said, I always come back to the Pegula  owned Sabres and how bad the Bills are capable of being under them. I am super frustrated with McBeane at the moment. Highly critical of the FO in particular. But I’m not sure I have the testicular fortitude to call for their head. 

 

I hear ya, but here's what pushes me over the top.  I have difficulty explaining why anyone capable of allowing "13 Seconds" and repeatedly having their Defense ...,, I'm not even sure how to phrase it, but get entirely neutered for lack of a better explanation, in the playoffs, again, as a rule, not an exception, does not have terminal flaws that will either never be corrected, or will take so long to correct that the time involved to do so simply makes no sense.  

 

Remember, "Trust the Process."  For how long?  What, two decades?  Blindly?  Because we aren't even seeing a method to the madness.  This is like shoot-from-the-hop central.  

 

If we saw some actual progress in "The Process," the most critical of us might agree to not call for their heads, but there is none.  In fact, Beane has now lapped himself in the cap issue dept. and the team is A, not even the best it's been on their watch, and B, nowhere near a steady-state in terms of a core of players.  Our core is on the cusp of leaving or aging out, not that it's even that great to begin with.  

 

Edmunds, gone, good but hardly phenominal.  

Poyer, aging and costing out.  Excellent, but FA, draftee.  

Oliver, again, good not great, one year left.  

Von Miller, all the risks played out.  He's done here.  

 

What's left?  Not much.  Milano at LB.  Nothing worthy of note on the DL.  Rousseau regressed over the last 8 games.  Diggs is griping.  No proven RB on their entire 6 year watch, 5 for Beane.  

 

So where exactly has this "Process" that we've been asked to trust led us?   If not for Allen neither McD or Beane would still be here.  They'd have served the same 3-4 year terms that their predecessors did.  

 

The Process certainly hasn't led us to the AFC CG consistently.  

[CincyBillsFan]

Going back to 2017 dilutes out the impact of the more recent and problematic focus on the defense at the expense of the offense.  Given that Allen showed signs of being a franchise QB in 2019 let's focus on the 2020, 2021 & 2022 drafts and FA activities of the Bills. 

 

IMO if the Bills coaches/front office were offensive minded they would have recognized that Allen was on the cusp of greatness at the end of the 2019 season and thrown everything into supporting their emerging superstar QB on offense.  But with the exception of the trade for Diggs in this period the Bills have bargain basement shopped for offensive players. 

 

During 2020 - 2022:

 

*  Two of their three 1st round picks (one went for Diggs) went to the D.

*  Two of their three 2nd round picks went to the D.

*  Their only blockbuster FA signing (Miller) went to the defense.

 

Reverse this and have the only blockbuster FA signing be an offensive player and 2 of the their 1st round and 2 of their 2nd round picks also being offensive players and the Bills would be a much stronger team.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

24 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But when you say Stefon is a first round + that means the FO invested even more in the Offense.  Same with when you move up for Josh, that's a big investment in the offense.  

 

While the OP's is flawed, the lazy narrative that the FO neglects the offense is also flawed.

 

With all that said, I'll be disappointed if the FO doesn't put some resources into the O this offseason.  I believe they will.

 

Yeah as I said.......it wasn't even close to a thorough analysis by the OP.

 

What's simple and true is that they have drafted 5 defenders in round 1 and just 1 offensive player.

 

Those are the personnel chips that are most likely to supply you with foundational, 7-10 year players that are cost controlled for half of their career at big dollar positions.

 

(and Diggs, as a hedge, is probably going to give the Bills 4-5 years of elite play at high dollars while Jefferson will likely give Minnesota that 7-10)

[ArtVandalay]

6 hours ago, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.]

 

But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. 

[Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs]

 

So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total.

 

I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time).

 

You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

Lmao "the myth" over focusing on defense... the only first round pick we have used on an offensive player is Josh Allen himself. He's never been given a first round pick to play with on offense... myth???

 

3 of the 2/3 rounders on offense were at the RB position. Their other selections at offensive players have had crap results as well. 

 

Other than Josh Allen himself the last time we drafted an offensive player in the first round was 9 years ago when Sammy Watkins was drafted #4 overall before he was traded after 3 years. 

 

That's not a myth, my friend, that's called the truth. 

 

Also, sheer count of FAs tells you nothing.

Edited February 25, 2023 by ArtVandalay

[Mango]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

I hear ya, but here's what pushes me over the top.  I have difficulty explaining why anyone capable of allowing "13 Seconds" and repeatedly having their Defense ...,, I'm not even sure how to phrase it, but get entirely neutered for lack of a better explanation, in the playoffs, again, as a rule, not an exception, does not have terminal flaws that will either never be corrected, or will take so long to correct that the time involved to do so simply makes no sense.  

 

Remember, "Trust the Process."  For how long?  What, two decades?  Blindly?  Because we aren't even seeing a method to the madness.  This is like shoot-from-the-hop central.  

 

If we saw some actual progress in "The Process," the most critical of us might agree to not call for their heads, but there is none.  In fact, Beane has now lapped himself in the cap issue dept. and the team is A, not even the best it's been on their watch, and B, nowhere near a steady-state in terms of a core of players.  Our core is on the cusp of leaving or aging out, not that it's even that great to begin with.  

 

Edmunds, gone, good but hardly phenominal.  

Poyer, aging and costing out.  Excellent, but FA, draftee.  

Oliver, again, good not great, one year left.  

Von Miller, all the risks played out.  He's done here.  

 

What's left?  Not much.  Milano at LB.  Nothing worthy of note on the DL.  Rousseau regressed over the last 8 games.  Diggs is griping.  No proven RB on their entire 6 year watch, 5 for Beane.  

 

So where exactly has this "Process" that we've been asked to trust led us?   If not for Allen neither McD or Beane would still be here.  They'd have served the same 3-4 year terms that their predecessors did.  

 

The Process certainly hasn't led us to the AFC CG consistently.  

Like I said, when teams get really really good, burn super hot, and fall short, sometimes the decision to move on makes itself. 
 

It’s why tenured like Tomlin and Harbaugh are remarkable.

 

My frustration and criticism of Beane are partially based on not going down that road. 

[Gunsgoodtime]

This isn't some kind of Sci-fi movie, we can all see it clear as day, well most of us evidently.  But if it helps you telling yourself that, go right ahead.

[ProcessTruster]

11 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

This has been my thought too since the meltdown started after the Bengals game, however someone posted an interesting article recently that broke it down in some more detail showing a point system that awards more for first round picks than later round picks.  I found that interesting.  You should definitely count Diggs as the 1st and 4th he did cost, that brings it in some.  I do think it is overblown, just like the fire everybody crowd who wants to get rid of the coach and GM because they have failed in the playoffs.  The Bills have won more games than 1 team the last three years, lets blow that up?  Nah, lets find a way to get over the hump.  

 

as a 48 year old who lived the SB years, the drought and now today's run I say take a step back and enjoy the ride..this team is great, there are no guarantees they will win the SB but they have a great chance to, as good as any team does right now.   Lots of big games, national games, our team and city is talked about all the time.  People are a little overhyped in nonsensical criticism.

a little overhyped?  this board thinks the SB winner is awarded to the team with the highest number of weekly  "power rankings "

[John from Riverside]

13-3

[Bill from NYC]

8 hours ago, Einstein's Dog said:

But when you say Stefon is a first round + that means the FO invested even more in the Offense.  Same with when you move up for Josh, that's a big investment in the offense.  

They also traded up for Edmunds and Elam, and traded away the pick that was used to draft Mahomes. They moved down 17 spots, were under compensated, and selected the 8th defensive back taken in the 2017 draft, this in lieu of a HOF QB.

 

If the above doesn't indicate that McDermott cares more about defense than offense, I don't know what to say.

 

Please know that my intent is not to be snarky. I also do not think that McDermott is a bad on field coach. I do however think that he has FAR too much say in personnel decisions.

[OldTimer1960]

24 minutes ago, Bill from NYC said:

They also traded up for Edmunds and Elam, and traded away the pick that was used to draft Mahomes. They moved down 17 spots, were under compensated, and selected the 8th defensive back taken in the 2017 draft, this in lieu of a HOF QB.

 

If the above doesn't indicate that McDermott cares more about defense than offense, I don't know what to say.

 

Please know that my intent is not to be snarky. I also do not think that McDermott is a bad on field coach. I do however think that he has FAR too much say in personnel decisions.

Mahomes is obviously great, but this is hindsight.  He was selected 10th overall - there was no consensus that he was a slam dunk great NFL QB in waiting.  Mitch Trubisky was picked ahead of Mahomes and so were Solomon Thomas, John Ross and Corey Davis (I’ll admit that I thought Davis was going to be a star).

 

Remember, the Bills had been bad for quite some time and their plan was to build a competitive D early while they looked for a QB.  Many teams missed on Mahomes.

 

Now, I agree that it is past time to look for help on offense.  Hopefully, they can find some real help at OL and WR this year, but those groups don’t look great in this year’s draft.

[GunnerBill]

They have over invested in defensive line and running backs and not got sufficient return on those investments.

 

FIVE day 1 or 2 picks on DL, plus Addison, Butler, Murphy, Jordan Phillips (twice), Settle, Star and of course Von as average to high value FAs. 

 

THREE day 1 or 2 picks on RB, plus a 5th round pick traded away for Hines. 

 

And yet as we sit here heading into FA and the Draft in 2023 we'd all say I think that both Dline and Running Back are positions where the Bills are not "set". 

 

In contrast in five drafts under Beane their two highest picks on receiver are Gabe (Rd 4) and Shakir (Rd 5) and they have spent just two day 1 or 2 picks on the OL.

 

 

[Dr. Who]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

They have over invested in defensive line and running backs and not got sufficient return on those investments.

 

FIVE day 1 or 2 picks on DL, plus Addison, Butler, Murphy, Jordan Phillips (twice), Settle, Star and of course Von as average to high value FAs. 

 

THREE day 1 or 2 picks on RB, plus a 5th round pick traded away for Hines. 

 

And yet as we sit here heading into FA and the Draft in 2023 we'd all say I think that both Dline and Running Back are positions where the Bills are not "set". 

 

In contrast in five drafts under Beane their two highest picks on receiver are Gabe (Rd 4) and Shakir (Rd 5) and they have spent just two day 1 or 2 picks on the OL.

 

 

How is this disputable? Folks on the other side of the argument aren't paying sufficient attention.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

How is this disputable? Folks on the other side of the argument aren't paying sufficient attention.

 

I think the other side of the argument are slightly resisting the "it's defense vs offense" and to an extent they are right. It is broader than that. It is a flaw in team building strategy that goes beyond that and presenting it as D vs O is too simplistic.

 

They have tried countless free agents on the offensive line but without a clear identity of the type of line they want to build. They have tried everything, technicians, athletes, bruising run blockers, quick footed pass blockers.... there has been no clear method. 

 

They have sought out pass catching running backs countless ways by trade, draft, free agency.... and then barely throw to them. 

 

They have been willing to develop UDFAs and late round picks seemingly everywhere except the defensive line despite the fact that the one time they did Justin Zimmer gave them decent production pre-injury. 

 

I think some of it just comes down to their team building vision and the execution of their strategy. It is too simplistic to say "oh they always prefer defense." 

 

Basically they have tactical instead of strategic too often.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

10 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

I hear ya, but here's what pushes me over the top.  I have difficulty explaining why anyone capable of allowing "13 Seconds" and repeatedly having their Defense ...,, I'm not even sure how to phrase it, but get entirely neutered for lack of a better explanation, in the playoffs, again, as a rule, not an exception, does not have terminal flaws that will either never be corrected, or will take so long to correct that the time involved to do so simply makes no sense.  

 

Remember, "Trust the Process."  For how long?  What, two decades?  Blindly?  Because we aren't even seeing a method to the madness.  This is like shoot-from-the-hop central.  

 

If we saw some actual progress in "The Process," the most critical of us might agree to not call for their heads, but there is none.  In fact, Beane has now lapped himself in the cap issue dept. and the team is A, not even the best it's been on their watch, and B, nowhere near a steady-state in terms of a core of players.  Our core is on the cusp of leaving or aging out, not that it's even that great to begin with.  

 

Edmunds, gone, good but hardly phenominal.  

Poyer, aging and costing out.  Excellent, but FA, draftee.  

Oliver, again, good not great, one year left.  

Von Miller, all the risks played out.  He's done here.  

 

What's left?  Not much.  Milano at LB.  Nothing worthy of note on the DL.  Rousseau regressed over the last 8 games.  Diggs is griping.  No proven RB on their entire 6 year watch, 5 for Beane.  

 

So where exactly has this "Process" that we've been asked to trust led us?   If not for Allen neither McD or Beane would still be here.  They'd have served the same 3-4 year terms that their predecessors did.  

 

The Process certainly hasn't led us to the AFC CG consistently.  

Unfortunately, the Bills have had to supplement a lot in Free Agency because their drafting after 2017 and 2018 has been weak.

 

The 2nd Round has been a disaster for this team with Zay Jones, Cody Ford (when I was screaming at the TV for DK Metcalf), AJ Epenesa off a terrible Combine, Boogie Basham, now James Cook who they just won’t really turn loose.

 

The team really believes in Special Teams so there have been 2-4 specialists retained year after year - Tyler M, T Jones, T Dodson, J Kumerow. 
 

You look at their drafts again, 1 good offensive lineman since 2017, Dawkins. Everyone else they’ve drafted is borderline NFL. 
 

A lot of okay everywhere - Rousseau has been okay, Oliver has been okay, Singletary is okay, Morse is ok, Bates is okay, Tim Settle is okay, Jordan Phillips when healthy is okay.

 

So to summarize this, the last A player the Bills have added on offense was Diggs in 2020. Beane hasn’t made a serious attempt at #2 Tight End after Knox, so that’s usually a street free agent or borderline NFL practice squad level player (Sweeney). They’ve undervalued getting better and deeper at the skill positions. 
 

They poured a lot of resources into keep the Back 7 of this defense as static as possible, while dumping resources into DLine so that McDermott and Frazier can have their rotation.

 

But the big point is they have not drafted well. They got one WR who is alright to pair with Diggs and stopped. Means they had to go to FA for ~30 year olds in Brown, Beasley, Sanders (worst), Crowder. 
 

Because of swings and misses on the offensive line, they’ve scabbed in FA on the OLine. It’s a bunch of C-/D+ level guys. 
 

When your QB is not as good as Mahomes, you have to compensate for that talent gap, and it comes in the draft. They’ve left Josh out to dry when it comes to offensive investment. 
 

It looks like a defensive minded head coach who is overly obsessed with Special Teams and preserving his full-time prevent scheme, over doing everything you can to build around a once in a lifetime franchise talent at QB. 
 

Have to improve the drafting. 

[Teddy KGB]

This ain’t it.      Can’t keep burning first rounders on scrubs that can’t penetrate the Bengals backup OL 

[OldTimer1960]

I don’t disagree that they have invested too little on offense.  I just want to recognize that, while it hasn’t worked the way they thought it would, the strategy did make some sense in attempt to counter the Chiefs’ stellar offense.  Bills’ offense were not having trouble keeping up with the Chiefs’ offense.  It was the defense that could not stop the Chiefs.

 

Now, it is time to try a different tact. It is time to get some help for Allen.  I’m hoping for some good and significant investment in OL and a pass catching weapon, yet where they need most help on OL (IOL) seems to be a weak draft class and they will have to be lucky to find a good WR prospect in this group - either in FA or draft.  That makes the prior lack of investment in offense more frustrating, of course.

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

I can’t recall when Poyer and Hyde came over but if you remove those two safeties from the count, the OPs own tally shows that of the remaining nine defensive roster spots the ENTIRE Bills starting defense should then be made up of guys they themselves selected in Round 1, 2, and 3 with FIVE of them being 1st Rounders. I’d say that’d constitute a major focus on the defensive side of the ball. But maybe it’s just me. 

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

They have tried countless free agents on the offensive line but without a clear identity of the type of line they want to build. They have tried everything, technicians, athletes, bruising run blockers, quick footed pass blockers.... there has been no clear method. 

 

The one thing they haven't tried on the O line since 2019 is high draft picks (1st or 2nd round) or top end free agents.  This I think is the crux of the problem.  If the Bills got the O line right, with the current defensive & play making talent on the roster they would win a Super Bowl.  This is what is so frustrating to many Bills fans.  Fix the damn line by going for QUALITY not bargain basement fire sales.

 

 

[whorlnut]

17 hours ago, folz said:

I constantly see posters say that Sean and Brandon have focused too much on the defensive side of the ball when it comes to drafting and free agency. This just is not true. But, of course, once something is believed, it is hard to get people to see differently. So, this idea just keeps getting bandied about.

 

The only thing that could be said/griped about is maybe that the Bills have spent too many first round picks on defense. But that's it. You can't even say too many premium (or Day 1 and Day 2 picks), as you will see below. The first round is the only place where you can say the Bills have gone defensive heavy, but people say it like it has been a rule across all drafts, all rounds, and every year of free agency (as a whole). 

 

Since 2017, the Bills have drafted 44 players: 21 on defense, 22 on offense, and 2 STers. So, overall, the Bills have drafted 1 more offensive player than defensive players over the last six years. Below is a breakdown by round:

 

Round 1: 5 on defense, 1 on offense (though we should note that another 1st round pick was used on Stefon Diggs, so technically 2 on offense)

Round 2: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 3: 2 on defense, 4 on offense

Round 4: 1 on defense, 1 on offense

Round 5: 3 on defense, 5 on offense

Round 6: 5 on defense, 4 on offense, 2 STs

Round 7: 3 on defense, 3 on offense 

 

So, yes, 5 defensive players to 1/2 offensive players in round one. But rounds 1-3 combined, it's 9 defensive players to 9 offensive players. Rounds 1-5 combined, it's 13 defensive players to 15 offensive players.

 

And how about free agency? [It was hard to get exact FA numbers as some sites include rookie free agents that made the team and some did not, some included the Bills resigning their own low-tier free agents and some did not. I tried to focus on free agents coming from other teams to the Bills in a particular off-season...but by no means are these numbers definitive.]

 

But, to the best of my quick researching ability, since 2017, the Bills have brought in 33 defensive free agents, 47 offensive free agents, and 2 Special Teamers. 

[Special Teamers in my numbers are kicking specialists only, for players like Taiwan and Tyler M, they were listed as either offense or defense depending, despite really being STs]

 

So, since Sean McDermott arrived, the Bills have brought in (approx) 54 defensive players total, 69 offensive players total, and 4 Special Teamers total.

 

I'm guessing that this assumption of being defensive-heavy is coming from the disparity in the first round picks, and the Bills going heavy defensive line the last two years. But again, overall, the Bills have not over-focused on defense when you look at their full tenure, it has only been in regards to first round picks. And I'm sure it doesn't help the perception that those first round picks on defense (outside of Tre White), didn't come in as dominant players right away (Tremaine, Ed, Greg, Kaiir), if they had, I doubt anyone would be complaining that they are over-drafting defense. But, then again, when you are drafting in the bottom-half of round one, it is tough to get one of those guys that just comes in as a rookie and shines right away, so they have drafted a bit for potential (knowing that these players would need grooming time).

 

You can totally question the Bills draft/FA strategy or the individual players they are bringing in (I want more offensive line help too), but this idea that they only focus on defense is as the thread title states, a myth.

 

Go Bills!

 

 

 

 

I urge you to go listen to Bruce Nolan’s podcast entitled “10,000 rats”. He put it out within the last week and it explains very well why the draft pick allocations are still an issue. It’s not nearly as simple as you make it out to be.