A picture of Von Miller and D Henry

[Billz4ever]

Henry is 29 and will make $10.5M in 2023.  He has a $10M dead cap hit, so why would Tenn trade him in the first place?

 

I'd rather draft Robinson if he's still there at #27 and have a 21-year-old back on a rookie contract, who fits better in our offense anyway.

Edited February 26, 2023 by Billz4ever

[Bills!Win!]

21 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Henry is 29 and will make $10.5M in 2023.  He has a $10M dead cap hit, so why would Tenn trade him in the first place?

 

I'd rather draft Robinson if he's still there at #27 and have a 21-year-old back on a rookie contract, who fits better in our offense anyway.

why would Tennessee trade their only good receiver in AJ Brown?  Because they’re idiots 

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, Billz4ever said:

Henry is 29 and will make $10.5M in 2023.  He has a $10M dead cap hit, so why would Tenn trade him in the first place?

 

I'd rather draft Robinson if he's still there at #27 and have a 21-year-old back on a rookie contract, who fits better in our offense anyway.

 

 

Better question is why trade something for a top RB when there are about 20 starting RB's in UFA this year.

 

A first round pick on a RB is just foolishness.   That's a chip that should be targeted to become a $20M-$30M aav value player in year 3........players at positions who rarely make it to UFA and when they do, cap strapped teams can't afford.    

 

RB's are cheap,  easy to replace product.    

 

The "best player on the board" justification is nonsense.

 

If there is a perceived future HOF kicker or punter available you still don't use a first round pick on them..........and largely for the same reason..........because smarter teams will pick very good one's late in the draft when there aren't those valuable edge/island players available and beat you in the personnel game.

 

People look at Pacheco like the Chiefs got early round value........in reality they just got RB value..........which is always day 3.    Bills weren't positioned to make a steal like that because they already shot their shot with James Cook in round 2 and had  2 other 3rd rounders on the roster already.

 

Yes, the RB's that are picked earlier tend to have better individual careers......for various reasons.........but the teams that pick them early fair poorer for doing it.   

[Billl]

2 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

I often say the same thing whenever anyone says no to elite players. I never understood it

They handed or threw him the ball 390 times.  That’s exactly one TD per 30 plays at 4.8 yards apiece.  

[GoBills808]

Contrary to popular opinion Henry is not a 'power' back and imo would not be effective running behind the line as currently constructed

 

He needs a couple uninterrupted steps to get momentum. 

[DCofNC]

If they did make a trade for him, it would likely have to be with a new contract. He’s due 10M this year in salary with nothing left after that.  The only way it might make sense is to do something like a new deal w converting this year’s salary to signing bonus, add 2 more years with low base and throw another 6-10M in signing bonus on there.  Spread the hit out. 
 

I could see Tenn making a move, by trading/cutting him it saves 6M in cap space.  Not sure I’d be willing to give up a pick and that financial commitment for a high mileage back. 

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Contrary to popular opinion Henry is not a 'power' back and imo would not be effective running behind the line as currently constructed

 

He needs a couple uninterrupted steps to get momentum. 

This is true, he’s very susceptible to being flattened if you get to him before he gets going.  Once in motion, it’s hard to handle, but he doesn’t run like a real power back.  

[Solomon Grundy]

Von Miller sitting courtside at Lakers v Mavericks game

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Contrary to popular opinion Henry is not a 'power' back and imo would not be effective running behind the line as currently constructed

 

He needs a couple uninterrupted steps to get momentum. 

 

 

The Titans actually did a pretty good job at times using Henry in the RPO this year...........but yeah,  he's proven to be best lined up deep behind a QB who is under center and that traditional play action allows him to get 2-3 steps going downhill.     Top QB's nowadays want to be in the shotgun.     Playing under center all the time is for try hard system QB's.

[Justin C]

32 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Von Miller sitting courtside at Lakers v Mavericks game

Luka coming in to play RB?

[BADOLBILZ]

36 minutes ago, Solomon Grundy said:

Von Miller sitting courtside at Lakers v Mavericks game

 

Mavs blow a 27 point lead at home.   Only one win with both Luka and Kyrie Irving on court together since they traded for that screwball.     The fomerly banished Ryan L Bilz who now goes by that screen name with the bald headed John Malkovich in the red track suit as his avatar........he's gotta' be sick about that trade. 😂

[newcam2012]

5 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Better question is why trade something for a top RB when there are about 20 starting RB's in UFA this year.

 

A first round pick on a RB is just foolishness.   That's a chip that should be targeted to become a $20M-$30M aav value player in year 3........players at positions who rarely make it to UFA and when they do, cap strapped teams can't afford.    

 

RB's are cheap,  easy to replace product.    

 

The "best player on the board" justification is nonsense.

 

If there is a perceived future HOF kicker or punter available you still don't use a first round pick on them..........and largely for the same reason..........because smarter teams will pick very good one's late in the draft when there aren't those valuable edge/island players available and beat you in the personnel game.

 

People look at Pacheco like the Chiefs got early round value........in reality they just got RB value..........which is always day 3.    Bills weren't positioned to make a steal like that because they already shot their shot with James Cook in round 2 and had  2 other 3rd rounders on the roster already.

 

Yes, the RB's that are picked earlier tend to have better individual careers......for various reasons.........but the teams that pick them early fair poorer for doing it.   

Breece Hall says what...

 

Pundits are comparing Robinson to Barkley. 

 

The Bills should absolutely pick Robinson if he's there at 27. I highly doubt  he's still on the board because he looks that special and good. 

 

Robinson has been talked about as being a top 5 best available player in the whole draft. You just can't pass that up. He absolutely would be a great weapon for Allen. 

 

Pacheco is nothing special. He gets accolades because he was picked in the 7th round. He's good primarily because he fits into the innovative KC offense that has great schemes and play calling. Pacheco would probably be dog poop on most other teams. 

 

The Chiefs did pick CEH in the end of the first round. He has underperformed. 

Edited February 26, 2023 by newcam2012

[Drew21PA]

Can’t stop thinking about Henry and Allen in the backfield

 

what a nightmare

[Mr. WEO]

The Bills should pick up Henry, Wagner AND Evans-----because that guy wrote that the salary cap is essentially bogus!

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

Breece Hall says what...

 

Pundits are comparing Robinson to Barkley. 

 

 

 

That his reconstructed knee hurts?    That maybe 800 touches in just 3 seasons in college took a toll?

 

The 2022 Jets finished 7-10.

 

Since the Steelers repeated as SB champs in 1979-1980 only the 1983 Raiders(Marcus Allen), Emmitt Smith Cowboys and 2000 Ravens(Jamal Lewis) have won SB's with a RB they selected in round 1 playing a starring role for them that season.

 

So yeah, drafting them in round 1 has been ridiculously ill advised since the rules changes of 2010............and obviously bad business for multiple decades now.........the track record extends all the way back to the early 80's.    

 

Your thinking is about 5 decades past it's expiration date. 

 

[Chicken Boo]

On 2/24/2023 at 3:39 PM, ColoradoBills said:

So, let's just take the ball out of Josh's hands and give to Henry 350 times a season.

Fix the OL and let Josh throw the ball.

 

To limit the turnovers and its one-dimensional nature, this offense should be less reliant on Josh Allen.  

 

That is, if you all actually want to win a Super Bowl.

[Chicken Boo]

On 2/24/2023 at 7:49 PM, Billl said:

Are you guys serious?  He’s averaged 4.3 YPC for the past 2 seasons while taking an absolute beating.

 

With who at QB to take the pressure off Henry?  Teams won't be able to sell out - and fail - in an effort to stop him on this squad.  

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That his reconstructed knee hurts?    That maybe 800 touches in just 3 seasons in college took a toll?

 

The 2022 Jets finished 7-10.

 

Since the Steelers repeated as SB champs in 1979-1980 only the 1983 Raiders(Marcus Allen), Emmitt Smith Cowboys and 2000 Ravens(Jamal Lewis) have won SB's with a RB they selected in round 1 playing a starring role for them that season.

 

So yeah, drafting them in round 1 has been ridiculously ill advised since the rules changes of 2010............and obviously bad business for multiple decades now.........the track record extends all the way back to the early 80's.    

 

Your thinking is about 5 decades past it's expiration date. 

 

I don't disagree with your premise. Generally speaking it's ill advised in modern day football to draft a RB high in the first round. 

 

However, there are exceptions to everything. I think Robinson at pick 27 fits this exception.

I think there's a convincing case if he's still there that the pick can be justified.  I totally get what you are saying.

[GreggTX]

He's approaching 30 so it could work very well. We need to run more anyway and Henry is due for a slightly smaller workload like we did with Thurman Thomas. We could still upgrade the OL without spending a fortune since our OL isn't worth very much as is. Oliver and Morse are overpaid. Let the Titans have them. Of course, this still sounds unrealistic, but it's nice to think about. I mean, what do you do with your safeties? I could see Josh just calling audibles based on that. Move the safeties back and audible to a run. I have no problem running a more balanced offense. It keeps the defense rested. With an average OL, we'd score 40 points per game.

[BADOLBILZ]

13 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't disagree with your premise. Generally speaking it's ill advised in modern day football to draft a RB high in the first round. 

 

However, there are exceptions to everything. I think Robinson at pick 27 fits this exception.

I think there's a convincing case if he's still there that the pick can be justified.  I totally get what you are saying.

 

 

You really need to have a draft process and stick to it if you want to be consistently good in the draft.......but hey, 1/4 of the league turns over it's staff/schemes every year.........so drafting for need and making exceptions are common mistakes..........which is why very few teams are anything more than average at drafting.

 

I wouldn't take a RB in round 1 ever for reasons already mentioned but regarding him being an "exception"........Robinson lacks the HR speed of Saquon Barkley.........who would run a 4.3-4.35 on the new Indy surface.......so they aren't really comps, IMO.

 

Doesn't mean he can't be great........Arian Foster had a similar style and was a 4.68 speed then (about 4.6 by on todays tracks most likely) and averaged over 1400 yards rushing in a 3 year stretch as the best RB in the NFL at the time.    

 

But Arian Foster was undrafted.   

 

It's just not that hard to find RB production. 

 

[dave mcbride]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

You really need to have a draft process and stick to it if you want to be consistently good in the draft.......but hey, 1/4 of the league turns over it's staff/schemes every year.........so drafting for need and making exceptions are common mistakes..........which is why very few teams are anything more than average at drafting.

 

I wouldn't take a RB in round 1 ever for reasons already mentioned but regarding him being an "exception"........Robinson lacks the HR speed of Saquon Barkley.........who would run a 4.3-4.35 on the new Indy surface.......so they aren't really comps, IMO.

 

Doesn't mean he can't be great........Arian Foster had a similar style and was a 4.68 speed then (about 4.6 by on todays tracks most likely) and averaged over 1400 yards rushing in a 3 year stretch as the best RB in the NFL at the time.    

 

But Arian Foster was undrafted.   

 

It's just not that hard to find RB production. 

 

Thinking about this. Here's a rough list of the most productive RBs of the past quarter century or so who had legit 3-5 year bursts, in no particular order:

 

Priest Holmes (undrafted)

Arian Foster (undrafted)

Dalvin Cook (second round)

Ezekiel Elliott (first round)

Austin Ekeler (undrafted)

Jonathan Taylor (second round)

Christian McCaffrey (first round)

Josh Jacobs (first round)

Todd Gurley (first round)

Aaron Jones (fifth round)

Frank Gore (third round)

Terrell Davis (sixth round)
Shady (second round)

Corey Dillon (second round)

Derrick Henry (second round)

Adrian Peterson (first round)

Marshawn (first round)

Le'Veon Bell (second round)

Alvin Kamara (third round)

Nick Chubb (second round)

Chris Johnson (first round)

Jamal Lewis (first round)

Jamaal Charles (third round)

Maurice Jones-Drew (second round)

Stephen Jackson (first round)

Ray Rice (second round)

Michael Turner (fifth round)

Thomas Jones (first round, but a late bloomer who did nothing for the team that drafted him)

Ladanian Tomlinson (first round)

Clinton Portis (second round) 
Brandon Jacobs (fourth round)

Edgerrin James (first round)

Warrick Dunn (first round)

Willie Parker (undrafted)

Fred Taylor (first round)

Marshall Faulk (first round)

Tiki Barber (second round)

Deuce McAllister (first round)

Ahman Green (third round)

Shaun Alexander (first round)

Larry Johnson (first round, but only two really good seasons)

Curtis Martin (third round)

Ricky Williams (first round)

Stephen Davis (fourth round)

Eddie George (first round)

 

An interesting fact: most of the really productive backs were thriving in the 1998-2012 (or so) period. In 2021, there were only seven 1,000-yard rushers in a 17-game season (seven in 2015 too). In 2000 and 2006, there were 23 1,000-yard rushers in a 16-game season. There are some outliers (16 in 2019) but the general trend is decidedly downward over time. 

 

Also, the most productive backs do tend to be taken in rounds 1 and 2 (31 out of 45 here), although there are plenty of really productive players who were either drafted later or undrafted. There are also guys picked later who have 1-2 good seasons max but maybe that's all you need from them: i.e, Ahmad Bradshaw, who won two SBs and was drafted in the seventh round. He had 235 yards from scrimmage in the Giants' 2007 playoff run and a whopping 386 yards from scrimmage in their 2011 run. 

 

The really productive backs also tend to play on teams that are at least pretty good and which make the playoffs, but far more often than not those same teams that rely on highly productive RBs can't get over the hump in the postseason. There are a few exceptions: Terrell Davis (the greatest postseason runner in NFL history), Lynch in 2013, Faulk in 1999, Jamal Lewis in 2000, Ray Rice in 2012 (he had an elite year), Brandon Jacobs in 2007, and Corey Dillon in 2004. 

  

Edited February 27, 2023 by dave mcbride