Pressure is on McBeane - PFT discussion

[Gregg]

1 minute ago, Nephilim17 said:

Florio said, and Simms said he didn't disagree, that if the Bills don't make a deep playoff run this season that there's a good chance Pegula cleans house with management and coaching.

We have a generational QB but we've only been the conference championship once. 

People actually disagree with this take? Really? I'm genuinely interested in hearing why many people don't agree with that. 

 

To be fair both McDermott and Beane have done a good job overall. Five playoff appearances in six years. Three straight division titles. Before that it was 17 straight playoff less seasons. But I could see both of their seats starting to get warm. Making the playoffs isn't good enough anymore as expectations are sky high in WNY. Also, these playoff defeats with 13 seconds and the blowout home loss to the Bengals are not a good luck. I do think the pressure is on Beane to have a very good offseason with the draft and FA. It will be on McDermott when the 2023 season starts. Who knows what Terry will do? Have to see how the season plays out.

[beebe]

3 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Florio said, and Simms said he didn't disagree, that if the Bills don't make a deep playoff run this season that there's a good chance Pegula cleans house with management and coaching.

We have a generational QB but we've only been the conference championship once. 

People actually disagree with this take? Really? I'm genuinely interested in hearing why many people don't agree with that. 

 

Josh Allen's talent is not in dispute. But he's not the "generational" quarterback you think he is. Mahomes has outplayed him statistically every single season. Burrow has been a more consistent QB the last few years. Allen is obviously a great QB. But he's still error prone and has plenty of holes in his game that need work (mainly the turnovers).

 

the AFC QB tiers are: 

 

Tier 1 

Mahomes (maybe the greatest QB ever)

 

Tier 2 

Burrow

Allen 

 

Tier 3

Herbert

Watson 

Lawrence

Tua

Lamar

 

It's not crazy to think a few of the names in Tier 3 can advance to Tier 2 with continued imrpovement, a better supporting cast, or in the case of Lamar and Tua, better health.

 

Even aside from all that, the reason Josh Allen/Bills haven't broken through yet is because: 

 

2018 - josh allen stunk, the bills weren't good 

 

2019 - josh allen improved, but the bills were merely an above average team 

 

2020 - they ran into a superior Chiefs team led by a better QB, got outplayed badly in afc title game

 

2021 - they lost to an inferior Chiefs team due to bad luck, coaching meltdown 

 

2022 - they lost to an equal-ish Bengals team, but Bills never reached full potential due to bad health

 

[LABILLBACKER]

15 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Florio said, and Simms said he didn't disagree, that if the Bills don't make a deep playoff run this season that there's a good chance Pegula cleans house with management and coaching.

We have a generational QB but we've only been the conference championship once. 

People actually disagree with this take? Really? I'm genuinely interested in hearing why many people don't agree with that. 

First of all let me go on record as a 55 yr fan as agreeing with this position.  Sean and Brandon have rode the good will of pulling the Bills out of the drought long enough.  Process & Culture are cute mission statement words but they carry little weight if you can't advance deep in the playoffs with a generational qb. Blowing a 16-0 lead in Houston bothered me. Watching your defense get dismantled the next 2 years angered me. Then the team coming out flat and unprepared at home v Cincy was the final straw. I've compared Sean to Marty 100x and with each game he only validates that comp.

[Nephilim17]

4 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

Josh Allen's talent is not in dispute. But he's not the "generational" quarterback you think he is. Mahomes has outplayed him statistically every single season. Burrow has been a more consistent QB the last few years. Allen is obviously a great QB. But he's still error prone and has plenty of holes in his game that need work (mainly the turnovers).

 

the AFC QB tiers are: 

 

Tier 1 

Mahomes (maybe the greatest QB ever)

 

Tier 2 

Burrow

Allen 

 

Tier 3

Herbert

Watson 

Lawrence

Tua

Lamar

 

It's not crazy to think a few of the names in Tier 3 can advance to Tier 2 with continued imrpovement, a better supporting cast, or in the case of Lamar and Tua, better health.

 

Even aside from all that, the reason Josh Allen/Bills haven't broken through yet is because: 

 

2018 - josh allen stunk, the bills weren't good 

 

2019 - josh allen improved, but the bills were merely an above average team 

 

2020 - they ran into a superior Chiefs team led by a better QB, got outplayed badly in afc title game

 

2021 - they lost to an inferior Chiefs team due to bad luck, coaching meltdown 

 

2022 - they lost to an equal-ish Bengals team, but Bills never reached full potential due to bad health

 

I disagree, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills aren't equal to the Cincy or KC offenses. We don't have enough good to great players. IMHO. 

And I think the McDermott presence has definitely been welcome to this team and fan base but, just like with players (Rivers, Matty Ryan, etc.) sometimes an individual is good but not perhaps championship level good and if you want to win it all, you're likely going to have to move on from a "good" leader who has a ceiling.

At the very least, I think the McBeane seat has to be warming up this year.

[Lfod]

If by pressure you mean the same kind of pressure every team faces then sure I agree. 

 

If we are talking hot seats I would say your full of it. This team was to good to be thinking of firing the people at the top.

Edited February 24, 2023 by Lfod

[BarleyNY]

47 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Florio said, and Simms said he didn't disagree, that if the Bills don't make a deep playoff run this season that there's a good chance Pegula cleans house with management and coaching.

We have a generational QB but we've only been the conference championship once. 

People actually disagree with this take? Really? I'm genuinely interested in hearing why many people don't agree with that. 

There has already been a huge shift in the attitudes of the fans. Excitement and belief that last year was our year has turned to disappointment and concern. Even if everyone hasn’t made that pivot, most seem to have. I don’t know how badly the Bills would have to perform in 2023 for McDermott and Beane to lose their jobs, but that’s now a conversation.

 

Fans aren’t even considering the possibilities that Florio and Simms are. What if we miss the playoffs? What if that happens because the OL is largely ignored again and some lineman who shouldn’t even be on the field blows an assignment and gets Allen injured? A lot depends on how this off-season, season and playoffs pan out. 

[beebe]

30 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

I disagree, at least on the offensive side of the ball. The Bills aren't equal to the Cincy or KC offenses. We don't have enough good to great players. IMHO. 

And I think the McDermott presence has definitely been welcome to this team and fan base but, just like with players (Rivers, Matty Ryan, etc.) sometimes an individual is good but not perhaps championship level good and if you want to win it all, you're likely going to have to move on from a "good" leader who has a ceiling.

At the very least, I think the McBeane seat has to be warming up this year.

 

They said this about Bill Cowher. 

 

They said this about Tony Dungy.

 

They said this about Tom Coughlin.

 

They said it about these guys all at the exact same time!

 

Then Cowher broke through in 2005. Dungy broke through in 2006. Coughlin broke through in 2007. 

 

Then they moved on to Andy Reid. And now Andy has broken through twice.

 

The guys who experience super early success in getting their Super Bowl ring — the Sean McVays, the Mike McCarthys, the Doug Pedersons, the Sean Paytons — those guys are the outliers. The rest of the coaching world is subject to dealing with the odds, which are NEVER in their favor, bad variance and bad luck. 

[Nephilim17]

3 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

They said this about Bill Cowher. 

 

They said this about Tony Dungy.

 

They said this about Tom Coughlin.

 

They said it about these guys all at the exact same time!

 

Then Cowher broke through in 2005. Dungy broke through in 2006. Coughlin broke through in 2007. 

 

Then they moved on to Andy Reid. And now Andy has broken through twice.

 

The guys who experience super early success in getting their Super Bowl ring — the Sean McVays, the Mike McCarthys, the Doug Pedersons, the Sean Paytons — those guys are the outliers. The rest of the coaching world is subject to dealing with the odds, which are NEVER in their favor, bad variance and bad luck. 

You could be right about coaching. Not certainly so but perhaps.

 

Aside from coaching, I think there's an upper-level talent deficit on the Bills. Not a huge one but it exists. We have a good team roster-wise, but not a great one.

 

Let's see how free agency, the draft and the season go.... I'm more than happy to see Beane and McDermott succeed at a higher level and prove the critics wrong. But I don't think they get a free pass for all of Allen's prime.

[balln]

Good stuff. I have the perspective that this isn’t a franchise like Steelers, Baltimore or historically solid - minimal fo/Hc turnover

 

and also - this is PROFESSIONAL sports. And it is the NFL. You have a legit qb. You MUST cash this is in as a coach / fo / franchise into a Super Bowl. Anything less is a failure. 
 

it is cut throat and harsh and not the local high school team “hey coach - you’ll get em next year!” 

My measuring stick is Super Bowl. If we didn’t have Allen / qb - I’d more be the fan that’s like hey we’re winning the division and winning a playoff game or two. Quite frankly it’s still a loser mentality 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by balln

[Billsflyer12]

37 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

They said this about Bill Cowher. 

 

They said this about Tony Dungy.

 

They said this about Tom Coughlin.

 

They said it about these guys all at the exact same time!

 

Then Cowher broke through in 2005. Dungy broke through in 2006. Coughlin broke through in 2007. 

 

Then they moved on to Andy Reid. And now Andy has broken through twice.

 

The guys who experience super early success in getting their Super Bowl ring — the Sean McVays, the Mike McCarthys, the Doug Pedersons, the Sean Paytons — those guys are the outliers. The rest of the coaching world is subject to dealing with the odds, which are NEVER in their favor, bad variance and bad luck. 

No team has ever started the same quarterback under the same head coach for more than five years and seen that duo win its first championship.  If McDermott wins a Super Bowl with Allen this year in year 6 or beyond together, it will be the first time that it’s been done in history of NFL. 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Billsflyer12

[BUFFALOTONE]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

KC has also drafted majority defense.

After they fixed the OL. 

[34-78-83]

4 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

His defense does very well against bad/mediocre teams which leads to high rankings, but they get exposed against good teams with good QB's. Burrow and Mahomes could probably light the Bills D up for 35 points or more while playing in their sleep. Bills D = paper tiger.

What defenses do well against the great offenses with any consistency in this era?

 

(Its a trick question)

[Warriorspikes51]

We need more impact players and a new starting OL. 
 

 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, beebe said:

The guys who experience super early success in getting their Super Bowl ring — the Sean McVays, the Mike McCarthys, the Doug Pedersons, the Sean Paytons — those guys are the outliers. The rest of the coaching world is subject to dealing with the odds, which are NEVER in their favor, bad variance and bad luck. 

This is flat out wrong.

[Thrivefourfive]

2 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

To be fair both McDermott and Beane have done a good job overall. Five playoff appearances in six years. Three straight division titles. Before that it was 17 straight playoff less seasons. But I could see both of their seats starting to get warm. Making the playoffs isn't good enough anymore as expectations are sky high in WNY. Also, these playoff defeats with 13 seconds and the blowout home loss to the Bengals are not a good luck. I do think the pressure is on Beane to have a very good offseason with the draft and FA. It will be on McDermott when the 2023 season starts. Who knows what Terry will do? Have to see how the season plays out.

This is the part that just needs to be forgotten. I don’t know what good it could do to use this fact in the Bills operating procedure today. It means absolutely nothing, and should not be considered by any Bills decision makers. Just let the fans have it and be done with it.

 

If McDermott wins a championship it will be part of a great story. Understood. But the measure of if he’s capable of doing that has nothing to do with 17 years. 

[Mango]

I don't think Florio's take is that far off. But I think the outcomes have more depth than his flippancy in regards to results. 

The Bills are talent deficient at a number of positions outside of QB. Even positions where they have allocated tons of resources. They also have some (Diggs) players who are vocally unhappy with the organization. 

Either McBeane will prove us wrong that he has been very good at identifying, drafting, signing, and playing young players and the Bills will win 10-12 games this year and a playoff game. Or they have done a bad job in consecutive years and this year will be the result where they win 8-10 games, lose the division, and lose in the wild card or not make it at all.  If it is the ladder I think one of, if not both of McBeane will be gone in 2024. 

It won't be AFCCG/Super Bowl or bust. It will be a competent NFL roster or it won't be. I think that is the tipping point, the results will follow. 

[hondo in seattle]

6 hours ago, balln said:

Owners know nothing about football. Media has a huge influence on them 

 

That's just a silly thing to say.  They have varying degrees of expertise and there's little doubt some are very knowledgeable.  

 

For example, Mike Brown (owner of the Bengals) was the son of the legendary Paul Brown and grew up with football.  He was the assistant general manager of the team for 22 years before becoming the owner.  Art Rooney II is another guy who's been immersed in football his entire life.  

[LABILLBACKER]

For 5 years since acquiring Josh, 60% of cap expenditure has gone to defense.  If Beane & Sean want to keep their jobs for the next 5 years those numbers need to flip immediately. Or they will divide and eventually lose the locker room. You know Josh & Stefon are already pissed.

[H2o]

6 hours ago, ScottLaw said:

Reid found himself an elite QB which put him over the top…. McD has had one the past three years and as we know choked away a historic QB performance in 2021.

We all know about the 13 seconds. Definitely one of the biggest gaffes in post season history. Go back and look at those Eagles teams though and where they ranked on both sides of the ball. They had all kinds of talent. Sure, he had McNabb. But a heck of a lot worse QB's than him have hoisted a Lombardi. If they TRULY fix the roster, the OL and get another weapon or two, then we should be on that stage. This situation is as much Beane's fault as it is the coaching staff. 

[Billl]

1 hour ago, BUFFALOTONE said:

After they fixed the OL. 

 

44 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

We need more impact players and a new starting OL. 
 

 

Bills fans massively overstate the offensive line issues.  The bigger issue is that Josh tends to be a slow decision maker.  The difference between how quickly Burrow got rid of the ball compared to Allen when they played was striking.

 

Singletary, Cook, and Moss all averaged over 4.5 YPC, so they can clearly run block.  They may not be great in pass protection, but they are much better than they're made out to be on here.  Anyone who thinks swapping out a few linemen is suddenly going to make a huge difference is delusional.