Good article by Bruce Nolan re: Beane's draft capital expenditure since 2018

[78thealltimegreat]

17 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Allen is responsible for what, 85% of the offensive production?  It's a testament to Allen's elite level of contribution that over the last 3 seasons the Bills offense, which gets less then 40% of the teams cap resources, has been a top 3 unit by both yards & points.  Imagine the state of the Bills O without Allen.

 

 

A quarter of this board which has been spoiled by Josh’s greatness would see what life was like in Western New York from 1996-2017 and it wasn’t pretty. 
 

[msw2112]

5 hours ago, wppete said:

Beane needs to stop being cute and completely cut off McDermott from

the draft process… My gut feeling is McDermott meddles and pressures Beane and Co. pick players. 

 

I diagree with this.  The head coach and GM SHOULD be working together to shape the roster.  It's fine to criticize some of the picks, but working together is not something to be criticized, in my opinion.

[DJB]

17 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

11.5% Draft Capital on the skill positions around Allen, and 8% of that is running back. 

 

3.5% on WR and TE combined.

 

And you have Joe Marino and Cover 1 talking about investing more into the defensive line. 

 

Aaron on Cover 1 thinks the weapons are just fine. 
 

 

It’s why i unfollowed those guys. They are knob riding in an attempt to get Bills credentials or something. 
 

How anyone can argue we need more investments on D is absurd

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

19 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

Missing on Ford hurt badly. Compounded by head scratching selections with drafting Moss in the 2nd round after just drafting Singletary the prior year in the 3rd, wasting a 4th round pick on Fromm when you had greater needs than a backup QB and then going RB again with a 2nd round pick followed by a huge miss in the 3rd with LB T Bernard. Those were huge value picks that Beane chose to ignore OL or WR.  Josh has masked a lot of shortfalls and while Beane and McDermott deserve a lot of credit, they also deserve their fair share of criticism.  They spent 3 picks on RB in the early rounds and all have had minimal impact. In addition, they’ve spent a ton of draft capital and FA spend on the DL that has yet to be a difference maker against quality teams. 

 

Moss was in the 3rd, Epenesa in the 2nd, and Fromm in the 5th.  I don't mind drafting a running back... if they dress they usually play some snaps so you're always getting someone who contributes on game day.  At the same time, i would want to draft a lineman in every single draft. 

 

They drafted Davis in the 4th, who is among the best WRs on the board in round 3, they also traded a 1st in that draft for Diggs and drafted Hodgins in the 6th.  So I'd say they nailed WR in 2020.  This from a team already having Brown and Bease. Fromm was a dumb pick, and now easy to say - a bad pick.   

 

Bernard played 110 snaps... lets not crucify the guy just yet.  There is a lot to like about him as a player.  

[Mango]

We know we haven’t invested much in the draft on OL. We’ve largely used FA. In terms of cost, Beane inherited the 30th most expensive (2nd cheapest) OL in 2018. He then went out and spent the 12th, 3rd, 5th, and 20th most in pure cap dollars. None of that bothers me…except for the fact that we’ve never had the 3rd or 5th best line in football. In fact I don’t find any of them remarkably better or worse than any of the others. And this paired drafting RB’s we either don’t like or use over and over again in the 2nd, 3rd, and 3rd rounds is why we’re talking about what this 2023 Buffalo Bills team might or might not be. 

If we do the same on DL, Beane inherited the 10th most expensive line in 2018. Then went on to make it the most expensive 2 years in a row, followed by the 2nd most in 21. It was 17th this year. But 2023 we currently have the 3rd most expensive DL. Then add in AJE, Basham, Rousseau, Philips, Oliver. It’s insane. 

 

I think part of being a good leader is providing enough support and freedom to fail. The Pegulas have certainly done that here. Beane has been allowed to allocate as many resources in draft and cash as he wants to both units. He’s allocated more than most if not all of his counterparts around the league.

 

If I invested as much time and capital in a project as Beane has into both lines and this was the return I got, I’d be on a very very short leash. Likely put on a PIP. 

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

20 hours ago, TFBillsfan said:

Missing on Ford hurt badly. Compounded by head scratching selections with drafting Moss in the 2nd round after just drafting Singletary the prior year in the 3rd, wasting a 4th round pick on Fromm when you had greater needs than a backup QB and then going RB again with a 2nd round pick followed by a huge miss in the 3rd with LB T Bernard. Those were huge value picks that Beane chose to ignore OL or WR.  Josh has masked a lot of shortfalls and while Beane and McDermott deserve a lot of credit, they also deserve their fair share of criticism.  They spent 3 picks on RB in the early rounds and all have had minimal impact. In addition, they’ve spent a ton of draft capital and FA spend on the DL that has yet to be a difference maker against quality teams. 

Moss was drafted in the 3rd round and I didn't see any reason why not to have a 1-2 punch back there, not every draft pick is a hit and there are no guarantees. He hit on the biggest need and that's QB, if nothing else we have a GM/HC who can identify and elite QB so for that they have my support for awhile. I don't agree with every move, draft pick etc. but I have to admit they sure as heck at least try. I remember the days of Doug Whaley, those were some dark times.

[26TrapDraw]

6 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I guess that is right, but I think it would be interesting to see if they had to trade more than the value of that 7th pick just to get there.  Probably not egregiously different, but I would not be at all surprised if they had to “overpay” in that trade.

I’m not as down on Beane as many here and I do think his preference this year will be for offense, but it looks like a poor to middling draft class for WR and interior OL.  Maybe there will be an OT worth taking in the first or they could consider a TE as that class looks strong and deep.  

If They use the first round pick on a tight end i'll eat my Poyer Jersey

[OldTimer1960]

57 minutes ago, BeefCurtns said:

If They use the first round pick on a tight end i'll eat my Poyer Jersey

There are very good TE prospects in this draft.  We’ve seen for a few years now how much Travis Kelce means to KC and George Kittle to SF.  A really good TE can help in the run and pass game. 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

There are very good TE prospects in this draft.  We’ve seen for a few years now how much Travis Kelce means to KC and George Kittle to SF.  A really good TE can help in the run and pass game. 

We're paying 53M to a TE who we hardly throw to anymore. There is no way in hell I'm wasting a 1st round pick on a TE unless he can play RT and be eligible.  Repeat after me everyone. 

We need OL

We need WRS

[OldTimer1960]

11 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We're paying 53M to a TE who we hardly throw to anymore. There is no way in hell I'm wasting a 1st round pick on a TE unless he can play RT and be eligible.  Repeat after me everyone. 

We need OL

We need WRS

Such bluster!

 

I am not advocating specifically for a TE, but a guy like Dalton Kincaid can certainly help this passing offense.  Plenty of teams use 2 TEs frequently.  A guy like Michael Mayer at 265lbs can help the OL run blocking and help in the passing game, too.  
 

I think there will be an OT available in round 1 that could tempt them, but I think any of the OG or C might be a bit of a reach at 27.  Some might argue Torrence from Fla is worth the pick, but Gunner and others don’t think he fits the Bills’ scheme.  Problem is, waiting until late round 2 in a weak IOL class could leave you empty handed.

[PBF81]

On 2/23/2023 at 6:07 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/2/23/23611065/predicting-buffalo-bills-succession-problems-through-draft-capital-expenditure-research

 

Staggering numbers in the WR, TE and OL categories.  You take away the swing and miss on Ford and the OL % dips below 3.  Just an indictment on what happens when your defensive HC gets in the ear of your GM. 

 

Great piece!  Good find.  

 

I thought his paragraph here was the most relevant; 

 

Quote

Drafting young players on cost-controlled contracts is the best way to make sure your numbers in a position room don’t falter significantly and require you to sign free agents to fill roster spots. Free-agent players are always going to trend towards being more expensive from a salary cap standpoint versus drafted players, and filling holes with cheaper players proactively is going to lend itself towards more roster flexibility later versus filling holes with more expensive players reactively.

 

That word "reactively" Is entirely key.  

 

That's how they've built this team, reactively.  

23 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

How much of the 40% is Allen

 

Just under half.  45.5%

[PBF81]

22 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I would like to see what it looks like if you count Diggs as a first round pick which is kind of what that was.  

 

Is it? 

 

Which would you rather have?  Which do you think lends itself better to overall team/cap management?  

 

Diggs @ $96M for 4 years 

 

Or Jefferson @ $15M for 4 years  

 

As much as I like Diggs I know which one I'm going for.  Better player for far less money.  i.e., not the same as a 1st-Round pick.  1st-Round picks don't get paid like that.  

21 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

It’s time.

 

Beane needs to tell McDermott the water spigot on defense is turned off.

 

Its time for some offensive investment.

 

Sorry you don’t get Edmunds, Poyer and another FA Safety. 

Sorry Sean and Leslie and new Senior Defensive Assistant, time to Coach up:

 

$100M Von

1st Round Rousseau

1st Round Oliver

2nd Round Basham

2nd Epenesa

FA DaQuan Jones

FA Tim Settle

Extended Milano

Extended 1st Round White

1st Round Elam

Extended Taron Johnson

Extended Micah Hyde
 

Get out there and find talent on Offense.

 

How do you know it's not McD on a saddle on top of that spigot?  

 

 

[PBF81]

21 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Amen man.

 

McDermott has two strikes, really 2.5.

 

He blew that game in Houston, that’s 0.5 a point.

 

He gained that back by getting the Bills to the AFCCG in 2020. I’m not going to fault them for not being able to beat Chiefs in Arrowhead in their first good year.

 

13 seconds is a horrific loss that goes right with Wide Right, Music City.

 

And his team came out flat as a board against Cincinnati and the defensive scheme was another pathetic prevent shell all day mixed with obvious poorly designed blitzes. 
 

Use what you’ve got and get some results. 
 

He’s no good to this team if he needs the 2000 Ravens or 1985 Bears defense to win. 

 

Let's not forget that entirely inexplicable as well as inexcusable loss to the Jags in '21 too, and while that wasn't a playoff loss it cost us homefield vs. the Chiefs in that critical season.  

 

[PBF81]

21 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Ed Oliver is okay, he’s a guy. No way he’s getting a second deal. If someone was willing to give you a 3rd for him, take the $10M in savings and the pick and run. 

 

Agree with your entire post, but this will be Oliver's last season too, and while he's no great shakes on the DL, who do we have to fill in after him right now?  No one, mediocrity.  

 

We'll see what happens this draft, but if it's not that home-run that we're all hoping for, the flaws in "The Process" from all angles and sides are going to become glaring.  

 

I mean we're any one of a few players going down away from maybe 5-12.  Allen for sure, Diggs, Milano, Dawkins.  Any one of them goes down, good luck to us.  I'm not anticipating much from Von Miller either.  And who knows if White's ever going to return to even average much less greatness.  He was terrible when he came back.  

 

[pennstate10]

22 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I would like to see what it looks like if you count Diggs as a first round pick which is kind of what that was.  

Bills absolutely, definitely , positively used their 1st round pick in 2020 for a WR. Diggs. This is simply a fact. 
 

that the article ignored. 
 

Add in Diggs and it s 45% offense vs 55% defense. 
 

The valid point in this article is lack of draft picks on OL. Hope that’s fixed this year. 

[PBF81]

10 hours ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

The Bills are spending $124 million on offense versus $118 on defense.  The top two cap expenditures this year are offensive players (Allen, Diggs).  The Bills have invested in offense.  

 

What they haven't done is built a good OL.  Or found a good #2 WR.  

 

overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills

 

... or RB or TE.  

 

Knox is OK but far from impact.  When he's on he's great, which is three or four games a season.  When he's not he's invisible, which is the other dozen.  We don't need a Kelce, but 45-50 YPG would be nice.  

 

[Matt_In_NH]

22 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

Diggs @ $96M for 4 years 

 

Or Jefferson @ $15M for 4 years

That was not the contract when he got to Buffalo.  I will just wait for Jefferson to sign his extension that will blow Diggs contract out of the water and then reply to this and ask you which you would rather have. 
 

it is true the contract matters but what you quoted is the extension he just signed.  

[PBF81]

4 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

A quarter of this board which has been spoiled by Josh’s greatness would see what life was like in Western New York from 1996-2017 and it wasn’t pretty. 

 

And as I've mentioned a bunch of times, imagine Allen on some of those former teams, or with Lynch/Jackson for example.  No question we'd have made the playoffs back then, possibly even unseated the Pats on occasion.  

 

McBeane are fortunate that they hit on that.  Nothing else that they've done would have even gotten us a wild card.  This team without Allen would have been low end for what we had from '96 - '17.  

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

We're paying 53M to a TE who we hardly throw to anymore. There is no way in hell I'm wasting a 1st round pick on a TE unless he can play RT and be eligible.  Repeat after me everyone. 

We need OL

We need WRS

 

Great point!

 

There needs to be a measure of to what extent a player contributes relative to his contract value.  

[PBF81]

21 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

That was not the contract when he got to Buffalo.  I will just wait for Jefferson to sign his extension that will blow Diggs contract out of the water and then reply to this and ask you which you would rather have. 
 

it is true the contract matters but what you quoted is the extension he just signed.  

 

Seriously?  LOL  Come on now ... 

 

OK, put whatever numbers you want from his contract to it and change them, then ask yourself the same question.  In fact, let's say Diggs for the 5 year $72M contract he originally signed with Minny.  In fact let's say $10M/season for Diggs.  

 

Which is better?  

 

Jefferson 4 years for $15M 

Diggs 4 years for $40M  

 

My position has not changed one iota.  Even at even money I'm taking Jefferson, but it's nowhere near even and when they made the trade Beane obviously knew it.  Everyone knew that we would have to restructure and it was going to cost us more.  Diggs had the leverage and I'm sure that it was discussed between his agent and Beane.  

 

 

Edited February 25, 2023 by PBF81