Good article by Bruce Nolan re: Beane's draft capital expenditure since 2018

[LABILLBACKER]

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/2/23/23611065/predicting-buffalo-bills-succession-problems-through-draft-capital-expenditure-research

 

Staggering numbers in the WR, TE and OL categories.  You take away the swing and miss on Ford and the OL % dips below 3.  Just an indictment on what happens when your defensive HC gets in the ear of your GM. 

[Marcus Aurelius]

[Mr. WEO]

so....not a wizard?

[MJS]

So it is 60/40 in favor of the defense. It's hard to take the WR numbers as they are because they traded a 1st round pick for Diggs, which was a slam dunk. They also traded for Kelvin Benjamin, and that was NOT a slam dunk.

 

We are due for some offensive investment in the draft, especially at receiver.

[LABILLBACKER]

21 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

As I said last off-season, they don’t value the WR position nearly as much as they should and they overvalue RB… really strange strategy….specifically in a passing league and with a top 3 QB…. There was no chance they were taking a 1st round WR lasts years draft and if there is a top defensive player with a top WR prospect available at 27 I am still skeptical they’ll go WR… regardless of what they do in FA.

If you are right and yes there is a chance McB go defense once again @ 27, then this will send a clear "FU" message to our offensive leaders. Drafting mid tier RB's when you already know you don't have the proper run blocking olineman in place is pure stupidity.  Last year was the perfect opportunity to land one of those top wrs.  Even Terry has gotta see this behavior and shake his head.

[atlbillsfan1975]

I really hope Beane and McD agree on what players they want. Bills don’t have the luxury anymore of the slow development model for rookies. The philosophy on the team needs to evolve to developing youth on the field so they are ready for the playoffs.  I fear it won’t though, since I’ve heard McD talk about the rookie wall regarding players like Groot… At very least allow the rookies to work way into starting lineup through the year if worried about load management like they did w/ James Cook. 

[Shortchaz]

1 hour ago, MJS said:

So it is 60/40 in favor of the defense. It's hard to take the WR numbers as they are because they traded a 1st round pick for Diggs, which was a slam dunk. They also traded for Kelvin Benjamin, and that was NOT a slam dunk.

 

We are due for some offensive investment in the draft, especially at receiver.

How much of the 40% is Allen

[McDeerInTheHeadlights]

To make things worse is the fact that the head-scratching asset allocation is only one side of the issue. On top of that you have to add the poor job at talent scouting, selection and, if you wish, development. I would argue that with that kind of capital spent on the DL, you should not be in the position to go out and overspend to bring in a 30+ veteran, regardless of his HoF status.

 

Most people here seem to be in love with Beane. Perhaps that's because he is a polished public-speaker and he is, at least apparently, very candid in sharing the 'behind the scenes", the thought process behind each decision, but the reality is that for the Bills to win a SB he (also) has to do much better.

 

And who knows, if part of the problem is McD getting too much in Beane's way when it comes to asset allocation and talent selection, well perhaps it's time for McD to take a step back and let the GM do his job.

Edited February 24, 2023 by McDeerInTheHeadlights

[TFBillsfan]

Missing on Ford hurt badly. Compounded by head scratching selections with drafting Moss in the 2nd round after just drafting Singletary the prior year in the 3rd, wasting a 4th round pick on Fromm when you had greater needs than a backup QB and then going RB again with a 2nd round pick followed by a huge miss in the 3rd with LB T Bernard. Those were huge value picks that Beane chose to ignore OL or WR.  Josh has masked a lot of shortfalls and while Beane and McDermott deserve a lot of credit, they also deserve their fair share of criticism.  They spent 3 picks on RB in the early rounds and all have had minimal impact. In addition, they’ve spent a ton of draft capital and FA spend on the DL that has yet to be a difference maker against quality teams. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Shortchaz said:

How much of the 40% is Allen

Offense takes up 38.5% of cap allocation. Josh takes up 46% of that.

[SCBills]

53 minutes ago, McDeerInTheHeadlights said:

To make things worse is the fact that the head-scratching asset allocation is only one side of the issue. On top of that you have to add the poor job at talent scouting, selection and, if you wish, development. I would argue that with that kind of capital spent on the DL, you should not be in the position to go out and overspend to bring in a 30+ veteran, regardless of his HoF status.

 

Most people here seem to be in love with Beane. Perhaps that's because he is a polished public-speaker and he is, at least apparently, very candid in sharing the 'behind the scenes", the thought process behind each decision, but the reality is that for the Bills to win a SB he (also) has to do much better.

 

And who knows, if part of the problem is McD getting too much in Beane's way when it comes to asset allocation and talent selection, well perhaps it's time for McD to take a step back and let the GM do his job.

I think this is the first off-season the fanbase is critical of Beane & McDermott.  
 

13 seconds, last year.. yea, but it was different.   It was criticism of a moment, not of failures and philosophy.  
 

This year it’s everywhere… fanbase, WGR, podcasters, Twitter personalities

 

It seems 0-100, but honestly it’s just a release of things people were feeling for a while, but able to quell due to the AFC CG, followed by an epic Divisional Round Game.  The product on the field was there, we will eventually breakthrough.. just a tweak here or there… and then this year happened. 

[MWK]

Complete malpractice. This regime will be gone soon if they don’t start devoting some resources to offense.

[Matt_In_NH]

3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2023/2/23/23611065/predicting-buffalo-bills-succession-problems-through-draft-capital-expenditure-research

 

Staggering numbers in the WR, TE and OL categories.  You take away the swing and miss on Ford and the OL % dips below 3.  Just an indictment on what happens when your defensive HC gets in the ear of your GM. 

I would like to see what it looks like if you count Diggs as a first round pick which is kind of what that was.  

[CincyBillsFan]

12 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Offense takes up 38.5% of cap allocation. Josh takes up 46% of that.

Allen is responsible for what, 85% of the offensive production?  It's a testament to Allen's elite level of contribution that over the last 3 seasons the Bills offense, which gets less then 40% of the teams cap resources, has been a top 3 unit by both yards & points.  Imagine the state of the Bills O without Allen.

 

 

[schoolhouserock]

It would be cool to see how this falls for other teams, head coaches, and GMs.

 

For example, there are only so many TEs on any roster, right? It is also a position that has become difficult to develop in the NFL. GM’s might prefer a vet over a cost controlled rookie at such a position. So what is a reasonable percent to allocate to that position? Is Buffalo an outlier?

 

Very neat analysis and would be great to see it set in a broader context.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, McDeerInTheHeadlights said:

To make things worse is the fact that the head-scratching asset allocation is only one side of the issue. On top of that you have to add the poor job at talent scouting, selection and, if you wish, development. I would argue that with that kind of capital spent on the DL, you should not be in the position to go out and overspend to bring in a 30+ veteran, regardless of his HoF status.

 

Most people here seem to be in love with Beane. Perhaps that's because he is a polished public-speaker and he is, at least apparently, very candid in sharing the 'behind the scenes", the thought process behind each decision, but the reality is that for the Bills to win a SB he (also) has to do much better.

 

And who knows, if part of the problem is McD getting too much in Beane's way when it comes to asset allocation and talent selection, well perhaps it's time for McD to take a step back and let the GM do his job.

Hell will freeze over before McD allows Brandon to do it all.  He will always be hovering over his shoulder for his defensive picks.

[Nitro]

Hindsight is 20/20.  Context counts.  Forgetting the Bills had weapons brought in through FA and that is why they drafted the way they did.  They needed a pass rusher and there was none in FA that fit their needs.  Spent draft capital on DLine instead of WR.  I have little issue with Beane.

[LABILLBACKER]

21 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

Allen is responsible for what, 85% of the offensive production?  It's a testament to Allen's elite level of contribution that over the last 3 seasons the Bills offense, which gets less then 40% of the teams cap resources, has been a top 3 unit by both yards & points.  Imagine the state of the Bills O without Allen.

 

 

That's exactly why eventually Josh will get fed up with this organizational philosophy. If McB doesn't go hard on OL, WR, etc this April, I could see a slow divide begin.  At the very least the contract controlled olineman should've been acquired in 19, 20, 21.  You ask your superstar qb to do 85% of the offensive production while Abbott & Costello waste picks on defensive busts.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

11.5% Draft Capital on the skill positions around Allen, and 8% of that is running back. 

 

3.5% on WR and TE combined.

 

And you have Joe Marino and Cover 1 talking about investing more into the defensive line. 

 

Aaron on Cover 1 thinks the weapons are just fine. 
 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[LABILLBACKER]

4 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Which weapons? A washed OJ Howard and Crowder?… Emmanuel Sanders the year before? Come on. 

The tier 2 scrubs they've brought in to pretend they're pass catchers are only exceeded by the scrub brigade of Quessenberry,  Van Rotten & Saffold.