Lamar Jackson wants guarantees that exceed Watson contract

[Billl]

49 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I genuinely don’t think he understands. He keeps talking about how Lamar will make more on the transition tag this year than Allen, ignoring the previous 2 year payday. Ravens offered Lamar a huge deal in 2021.  He also says Lamar’s deal is independent of Allen’s, despite the Ravens offering Lamar a contract worth more than Allen’s. He also compared Lamar’s strategy to Kirk, which isn’t the same as Kirk played under franchise tags, not transition tags, which is a large monetary difference, AND Kirk wasn’t being offered the second largest QB contract in the league and turning it down. I genuinely think he is just ignorant in this particular conversation.

Why do you keep bringing up the previous two years?  There have been zero reports that Lamar was offered his deal until last off-season. 

 

Josh received $20 million the first year of his new contract.  Last season would have been the first year of Lamar's new contract.  Lamar earned $22 million last season.  

 

Josh earned $47 million in year two of his new deal and will earn $28 million in year three.  Lamar will earn $32.4 million this season that would have been year two of his new deal if he doesn't sign a new deal.  So after two seasons, Josh earned $67 million compared to $54.4 million for Lamar.

 

Here's the thing, though.  Josh will average about $38 million over the next 5 years starting in 2024.  If Lamar averages $40 million during the same timeframe, something that is absolutely attainable if he stays healthy, he will earn more than Josh's contract paid, and he's a lesser player.

 

The entire reason long term deals exist is that players are willing to accept a little less total money in order to get guarantees against injury, and teams are willing to offer guaranteed money in order to get long term costs down.  If Lamar stays healthy, he will earn more by playing on one year deals than he would have by signing a long term contract, but that's a huge "if".  

[Goin Breakdown]

22 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I meant for the upcoming season. 

It’s all negotiations.  He doesn’t want to leave and the Ravens don’t want to lose him.  I get both sides. 

Yeah. Realistically I'm sure you're right. 

[Beck Water]

On 4/9/2023 at 8:54 PM, benderbender said:

They have money for OBJ but not their franchise QB

 

? They franchise tagged Jackson

There are also reports that they offered him a very competitive contract financially, he just didn't like the terms (not 100% guaranteed)

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Billl said:

Why do you keep bringing up the previous two years?  There have been zero reports that Lamar was offered his deal until last off-season. 

 

Josh received $20 million the first year of his new contract.  Last season would have been the first year of Lamar's new contract.  Lamar earned $22 million last season.  

 

Josh earned $47 million in year two of his new deal and will earn $28 million in year three.  Lamar will earn $32.4 million this season that would have been year two of his new deal if he doesn't sign a new deal.  So after two seasons, Josh earned $67 million compared to $54.4 million for Lamar.

 

Here's the thing, though.  Josh will average about $38 million over the next 5 years starting in 2024.  If Lamar averages $40 million during the same timeframe, something that is absolutely attainable if he stays healthy, he will earn more than Josh's contract paid, and he's a lesser player.

 

The entire reason long term deals exist is that players are willing to accept a little less total money in order to get guarantees against injury, and teams are willing to offer guaranteed money in order to get long term costs down.  If Lamar stays healthy, he will earn more by playing on one year deals than he would have by signing a long term contract, but that's a huge "if".  

This whole saga is really silly. Lamar SHOULD be concerned about getting injured and taking a little less money on the year to year. But that’s not what he’s demanding lol.

 

”The entire reason long term deals exist is so players accept less total money for money guaranteed.”

 

Does Lamar know that? He wants fully guaranteed AND a long term deal. You don’t even agree with him lmao.

And more importantly, Lamar has absolutely suffered financially from an advertising/media presence. His contemporaries are on commercials everyday. This guy, when healthy, is electric to watch and was the MVP. Does he even do ads?

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

They also got rid of Greg Roman (he left, Ravens had option for one more year) who was architect for offense tailored to his skill set.

This indicates they are going a different direction and not want to be dependent upon upon Jackson.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/35481734/ravens-oc-greg-roman-resigns-amid-offense-declining-results

 

 

The thing is, I don't think the bit you quoted is actually true: "Roman's most impressive feat was devising an outside-the-box offense around quarterback Lamar Jackson, producing the NFL's most prolific offense in 2019. But Roman never came close to replicating that unpredictable and dominant attack."

 

Roman didn't devise an outside-the-box offense for Lamar Jackson.  He essentially had the same offense in San Francisco with Kaepernick and then in Buffalo with Tyrod Taylor.  The thing which made it different and for a while, more successful, in Baltimore, is that Lamar Jackson is a great athlete where Kapernick and Taylor are good - a better, more elusive runner; a better (compared to those guys) passer with a stronger arm. 

 

What limited Roman's offensive success was, first, that in his early years in the league Lamar was limited as a passer.  Once enough film was out and the savvier DC's knew what throws he wouldn't attempt (or wouldn't succeed at) they could focus their defense. As Jackson improved in his passing (and multiple players and coaches have commented favorably on this), he started to be limited by Roman's passing offense, which isn't that well designed.  Again, this is something that was commented upon back in 2015-2016 when Roman was in Buffalo.  Finally, Roman's offense got "solved" by enough teams that it was no longer as successful, and he couldn't adapt.

 

The Ravens made an interesting choice in hiring Todd Monken as OC.  He oversaw a rush-heavy offense in Georgia, but previously a pass-heavy offense in Tampa Bay in 2018-2019.  So he appears to be flexible and willing to adapt what he does to the talent he has on hand.   I don't think that releasing Roman and hiring Monken indicates that the Ravens necessarily want to go in a different direction than Jackson.  I think they decided that Roman had a chance to "shoot his shot" and it wasn't good enough to get them to the next level.

Edited April 11, 2023 by Beck Water

[Beck Water]

11 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

Which would mean his value had declined relative to the cap. My best case guess for him now is he plays on the tag, stays healthy, and then takes a deal that is NOT equal in value relative to the cap going into the 2024 season. And he made less for two years than he would have otherwise. It's a losing proposition in the vast majority of simulations.

 

I wonder what quality of financial advice Lamar receives?  I'm sure he's not particularly spendthrift and has the smarts to head off shysters - but net present value is a challenging concept to convey

[Billl]

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

This whole saga is really silly. Lamar SHOULD be concerned about getting injured and taking a little less money on the year to year. But that’s not what he’s demanding lol.

 

”The entire reason long term deals exist is so players accept less total money for money guaranteed.”

 

Does Lamar know that? He wants fully guaranteed AND a long term deal. You don’t even agree with him lmao.

And more importantly, Lamar has absolutely suffered financially from an advertising/media presence. His contemporaries are on commercials everyday. This guy, when healthy, is electric to watch and was the MVP. Does he even do ads?

I don't disagree that he's taking what I would consider to be too big of a risk, but it's paid off so far in that he didn't sustain an injury that will prevent him from playing in future seasons.  My assumption is that he will eventually sign a long term deal that pays him a little less than what he's asking for but more than the $133 million guaranteed over 5 years he supposedly turned down.  As of this minute, he has lost nothing in terms of realized income, though.

 

As for endorsements, this doesn't impact anything.  He's never been particularly marketable as a spokesperson.  His contract won't impact that in the slightest.

 

I want to be clear that if I were advising him, I'd suggest signing the best long term deal he can get this off-season.  I'm simply disputing the notion that he's somehow already earned less than he would have if he'd taken the deal last year (not to mention the absurd claims that his salary 2 years ago was somehow impacted by not signing an offer that didn't get made until  September of 2022).

[FireChans]

20 minutes ago, Billl said:

I don't disagree that he's taking what I would consider to be too big of a risk, but it's paid off so far in that he didn't sustain an injury that will prevent him from playing in future seasons.  My assumption is that he will eventually sign a long term deal that pays him a little less than what he's asking for but more than the $133 million guaranteed over 5 years he supposedly turned down.  As of this minute, he has lost nothing in terms of realized income, though.

 

As for endorsements, this doesn't impact anything.  He's never been particularly marketable as a spokesperson.  His contract won't impact that in the slightest.

 

I want to be clear that if I were advising him, I'd suggest signing the best long term deal he can get this off-season.  I'm simply disputing the notion that he's somehow already earned less than he would have if he'd taken the deal last year (not to mention the absurd claims that his salary 2 years ago was somehow impacted by not signing an offer that didn't get made until  September of 2022).

>I don't disagree that he's taking what I would consider to be too big of a risk,

 

Which is what the majority of the people are saying.  Don't be dumb, take the money.

 

> it's paid off so far in that he didn't sustain an injury that will prevent him from playing in future seasons. As of this minute, he has lost nothing in terms of realized income, though.

 

Well, no. It MAY pay off. Josh Allen got $46M in cash in 2022. Lamar got $23M in cash in 2022. Josh gets another $28M this year, Lamar gets $32M.  Josh has made more money than Lamar because he signed a deal and Lamar didn't.

 

>As for endorsements, this doesn't impact anything.

 

What it does is paint a picture of a dude who isn't doing what I consider to be the optimal path for financial well-being.  Rather than quibbling over not having an agent or a couple extra million guaranteed, he should have been doing national Dr. Scholl's commercials and making up the difference. Like I said, all of his contemporaries are doing stuff.  LJ does none of it.  He's a young star, a great player, with accolades.  Someone will pay him to hold a Dr. Pepper lol.

 

>(not to mention the absurd claims that his salary 2 years ago was somehow impacted by not signing an offer that didn't get made until  September of 2022).

 

This is not how NFL extensions work, I believe.  My understanding is that signing an off-season extension for a player with their fifth year option replaces their fifth year option, not get tacked on.  So yes, the reason Josh made 46 in 2022 and Lamar made 23 is because he didn't sign that extension.

 

Edit: the last point is wrong.  The extension kicked in after his option year.  Still, it would have behooved him to get a deal done sooner and again not be in the situation he is in.

Edited April 11, 2023 by FireChans

[benderbender]

52 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

? They franchise tagged Jackson

There are also reports that they offered him a very competitive contract financially, he just didn't like the terms (not 100% guaranteed)

We should have franchise tagged Josh to show how much we valued him as a franchise QB? Or do you really think they used the tag as a last-ditch effort to negotiate 6 more months longer than the two years they've been "talking?" Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Lamar sit out the season and get a nice vacation like Deshaun Watson did. But the Ravens are starting to smell less like roses at this rate.

[Beck Water]

5 minutes ago, benderbender said:

We should have franchise tagged Josh to show how much we valued him as a franchise QB? Or do you really think they used the tag as a last-ditch effort to negotiate 6 more months longer than the two years they've been "talking?" Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see Lamar sit out the season and get a nice vacation like Deshaun Watson did. But the Ravens are starting to smell less like roses at this rate.

I can’t even figure out the point or argument you’re trying to make.  
 

You said the Ravens had money for OBJ but not Jackson.

 

Ravens are reported to have offered Jackson a high money contract but without the full guarantees he wanted.  The second fact is that the have a $32M franchise tag on Jackson - twice what OBJ reportedly has signed for

 

Therefore your statement is disproved.

 

WTF Josh Allen has to do with this, beats me.  If Josh played out his 5th year option with no contract because the Bills offered something market-appropriate that he wouldn’t sign, then franchising him would have been on the table, but Josh employs agents and a more standard negotiating process

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Why do you keep bringing up the previous two years?  There have been zero reports that Lamar was offered his deal until last off-season. 

 

Lamar has been rebuffing the Ravens attempt sign him for YEARS now. At the end of the 2020 season, the Ravens tried to negotiate a contract with Lamar and he wouldn't do it.

 

May 1 2021:  DeCosta (Ravens GM) says he’ll “work tirelessly to get a deal done,” and that, with the NFL draft over, “we’ve got other things now on our plate, and Lamar Jackson is one of those things.”

 

May 26 2021: At organized team activities, making his first comments since the 2020 season ended, Jackson says he’s spoken with DeCosta about a contract extension.

 

June 16 2021: Jackson then switches it up and says he’s “not really focused on [negotiations] right now."

 

Lamar could have had a contract the last 2 years. That's why everyone keeps bringing up the last 2 years.

 

This former NFL agent says the same thing:

 

 

 

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Lamar has been rebuffing the Ravens attempt sign him for YEARS now. At the end of the 2020 season, the Ravens tried to negotiate a contract with Lamar and he wouldn't do it.

 

May 1 2021:  DeCosta (Ravens GM) says he’ll “work tirelessly to get a deal done,” and that, with the NFL draft over, “we’ve got other things now on our plate, and Lamar Jackson is one of those things.”

 

May 26 2021: At organized team activities, making his first comments since the 2020 season ended, Jackson says he’s spoken with DeCosta about a contract extension.

 

June 16 2021: Jackson then switches it up and says he’s “not really focused on [negotiations] right now."

 

Lamar could have had a contract the last 2 years. That's why everyone keeps bringing up the last 2 years.

 

This former NFL agent says the same thing:

 

 

 

To be fair, we don't know if the Ravens WERE lowballing him before.  They could have been.

[Billl]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

>I don't disagree that he's taking what I would consider to be too big of a risk,

 

Which is what the majority of the people are saying.  Don't be dumb, take the money.

 

> it's paid off so far in that he didn't sustain an injury that will prevent him from playing in future seasons. As of this minute, he has lost nothing in terms of realized income, though.

 

Well, no. It MAY pay off. Josh Allen got $46M in cash in 2022. Lamar got $23M in cash in 2022. Josh gets another $28M this year, Lamar gets $32M.  Josh has made more money than Lamar because he signed a deal and Lamar didn't.

 

>As for endorsements, this doesn't impact anything.

 

What it does is paint a picture of a dude who isn't doing what I consider to be the optimal path for financial well-being.  Rather than quibbling over not having an agent or a couple extra million guaranteed, he should have been doing national Dr. Scholl's commercials and making up the difference. Like I said, all of his contemporaries are doing stuff.  LJ does none of it.  He's a young star, a great player, with accolades.  Someone will pay him to hold a Dr. Pepper lol.

 

>(not to mention the absurd claims that his salary 2 years ago was somehow impacted by not signing an offer that didn't get made until  September of 2022).

 

This is not how NFL extensions work, I believe.  My understanding is that signing an off-season extension for a player with their fifth year option replaces their fifth year option, not get tacked on.  So yes, the reason Josh made 46 in 2022 and Lamar made 23 is because he didn't sign that extension.

 

Edit: the last point is wrong.  The extension kicked in after his option year.  Still, it would have behooved him to get a deal done sooner and again not be in the situation he is in.

Josh has made more money than Lamar because he's a better player than Lamar.  He was offered a massive extension as soon as he was eligible for one.  The Ravens chose to wait a year with Lamar.  Their front office has a history of operating differently than most, and waiting until after the 2021 season to start to renegotiate Lamar's deal reflects their philosophy.

 

I don't understand this board's obsession with insisting that Lamar should have signed a contract that was offered to a different player from a different team in a different year.  Josh signed a huge contract in 2021.  Good for him.  That has nothing to do with Lamar.

 

Contracts operate the way they are written.  Sometimes they are extensions that take effect after the existing contact expires.  Sometimes they replace the existing contract and take effect right away.  Josh made more than Lamar last season because that's what was agreed to.  Lamar will make more than Josh this season if he signs the deal that's currently on the table because that's what Lamar's offer states.  It's no more complicated than that.

 

What Lamar has going for him that Josh doesn't is that Lamar stands to make more money each season than he did the last while Josh's deal was structured with a windfall last season that averages $36 million a season for the next six years.  If he stays healthy, Lamar is absolutely going to earn way more than that over that span.

 

What Josh has going for him that Lamar doesn't is the security of knowing he's got $150 million is guaranteed money in the event that he gets injured.  Lamar is taking a risk that he's going to stay healthy, and if he does, he's probably going to make an extra $50 million or so compared to what he turned down.  If he does get hurt and can't play, he'll have to get by on the $65 million he'll have earned in his career after this season.

[benderbender]

2 hours ago, Beck Water said:

the have a $32M franchise tag on Jackson - twice what OBJ reportedly has signed for

Franchise tagging Lamar is not a favor to him, so why do you keep bringing it up as if it were?

[Don Otreply]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

To be fair, we don't know if the Ravens WERE lowballing him before.  They could have been.

To be fair, Lamar wants something like 200 million or more fully guaranteed, no-one is doing that, so by that measure they are likely lowballing him, Lamar isn’t negotiating, he made a demand and won’t budge from it, so this is on Lamar, not the Ravens. Lamar is his own worst enemy,  imo the Ravens odds of moving on from him go up a little more every day.

[Doc]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

To be fair, we don't know if the Ravens WERE lowballing him before.  They could have been.

 

I would side with them not having lowballed him, having seen Josh's contract and Lamar being an MVP in his 2nd season and not having missed games at that point.

[QLBillsFan]

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

To be fair, we don't know if the Ravens WERE lowballing him before.  They could have been.

What would possess them to lowball Lamar. All information suggests they have made him multiple types of market value offers.

[Billl]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

To be fair, Lamar wants something like 200 million or more fully guaranteed, no-one is doing that, so by that measure they are likely lowballing him, Lamar isn’t negotiating, he made a demand and won’t budge from it, so this is on Lamar, not the Ravens. Lamar is his own worst enemy,  imo the Ravens odds of moving on from him go up a little more every day.

It’s 100% on the Ravens.  They’re the ones who hit him with the tag that kept him from being able to get market value.  If the Ravens would actually “move on from him”, he’d have a long term deal somewhere else in a heartbeat.

[QLBillsFan]

The contract Josh was offered has everything to do with him. People have documented multiple times on this thread that Lamar has been offered per the GM of the Ravens multiple contract offers early in his career. This was when his leverage and non health issues would have been at peak. These are facts. Lamar has repeatedly hurt his leverage and value and will never ever recoup those $. As it stands he has one year at $32m then he has nothing. 

[QLBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Billl said:

It’s 100% on the Ravens.  They’re the ones who hit him with the tag that kept him from being able to get market value.  If the Ravens would actually “move on from him”, he’d have a long term deal somewhere else in a heartbeat.

Totally not true. The Ravens are one of the most respected franchises in the NFL and have made him multiple offers. If he had an agent he would already be signed to a similar deal Josh has.
Everyone on this thread has presented these facts and you refuse to accept it. The NFL has just demonstrated he’s not worth the value he thinks he has. He can sign the tag for $32 and hope he has a great year and doesn’t get hurt. Contrast that will what Josh has earned and peace of mind he has. This is about 90% on Lamar.