Lamar Jackson wants guarantees that exceed Watson contract

[Richard Noggin]

24 minutes ago, Billl said:

What money is lost?  He’s going to make more than Josh this year if he signs the Franchise tag.  In all likelihood, that won’t happen though.  He’s going to sign an even bigger contract than he was supposedly offered last season, and he will have made more money playing under his existing deal in 2022 than he would have if he’d signed a new deal last year.  

 

The math isn’t that difficult.  Players give up money by signing long term deals in exchange for the security of guaranteed money.  The only way it’s a losing proposition is if he sustains a long-term injury.  A franchise QB will always make more playing on one-year deals as long as they stay healthy.  

 

Seems like you're ignoring some obvious realities here. Repeatedly.

 

Jackson WAS offered a pretty nice deal with serious guaranteed money. He WOULD have been able to invest that money (theoretically) and put it to work. He IS well behind where he would have been had he done so, even without much investment acumen (like me). And he IS highly unlikely to catch up to where he could have been by this point moving forward. It's not about future earnings, although even that could be compromised by betting big and getting hurt (and play leveling out). It's about total career earnings. 

 

Edit: it's better to secure the guaranteed lump sum sooner rather than later. Always take the sizable lump sum (that WAS offered to Jackson) now in such a fleeting profession. Why let some billionaire owners keep making money on that money for additional years. 

Edited April 11, 2023 by Richard Noggin

[Billl]

Just now, QLBillsFan said:

I don’t blame him for not getting a contract. That’s not what I said. I stated that he would have benefited from an agent. Coming off an MVP season in 2019 ? Do you think his leverage at that time was higher than Josh? I think the NFL would have said yes. We as Bills fans accurately would have argued Josh would ultimately be the better player. 

I’ve above tried to not be snarky or disrespectful to your position which is flawed. No one is clutching pearls about a guy who has lost a ton of $. He’s just played it poorly. You bring up math but you somehow think that losing $30M doesn’t matter. Because he made so much $ the last two years. Ok it’s pointless to continue this discussion as you’re not going to see the obvious.

He literally wasn’t eligible for a contract extension after 2019.  

 

I’m not trying to be combative here, and I appreciate the discussion even if it doesn’t always come across that way.  I just disagree with the notion that he’s lost $30M.  Josh’s deal was 100% independent of Lamar’s, so I don’t know why people act like it is.  It’s funny because Lamar’s primary argument is that he should get at least what Watson got, and every armchair agent is swearing up and down that he shouldn’t expect to get what Deshawn got just because the Browns offered it to Watson.  Well, why should we then assume that Lamar would have been able to get the same deal Josh got?  

 

By the time he was eligible for an extension (after the 2020 season), Josh was nearly universally considered to be a superior QB to Lamar.  Josh signed a huge deal, but he still left money on the table.  That’s not what Lamar wants.  His goal is to maximize his guaranteed earnings, and the way to do that is to go the Kirk Cousins route.  He’s actually willing to take a little less, but he’s decided that he’s only willing to do that if the money is guaranteed.  He’s gambling on his health.  It might work and it might not, but he hasn’t “lost” any money by not signing a long-term deal (so far).

[Billl]

6 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

Seems like you're ignoring some obvious realities here. Repeatedly.

 

Jackson WAS offered a pretty nice deal with serious guaranteed money. He WOULD have been able to invest that money (theoretically) and put it to work. He IS well behind where he would have been had he done so, even without much investment acumen (like me). And he IS highly unlikely to catch up to where he could have been by this point moving forward. It's not about future earnings, although even that could be compromised by betting big and getting hurt (and play leveling out). It's about total career earnings. 

 

Edit: it's better to secure the guaranteed lump sum sooner rather than later. Always take the sizable lump sum (that WAS offered to Jackson) now in such a fleeting profession. Why let some billionaire owners keep making money on that money for additional years. 

I agree with you in theory, but NFL salaries are FAR outpacing the market.  The longer you wait to sign, the more you get when you’re an elite player (because that market never dries up).  You don’t take a lesser lump sum when the QB market is inflating at the current rate.  Deferred compensation can be a very smart move when the conditions are right.  Ask Bobby Bonilla if you don’t believe me.

 

[Richard Noggin]

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

I agree with you in theory, but NFL salaries are FAR outpacing the market.  The longer you wait to sign, the more you get when you’re an elite player (because that market never dries up).  You don’t take a lesser lump sum when the QB market is inflating at the current rate.  Deferred compensation can be a very smart move when the conditions are right.  Ask Bobby Bonilla if you don’t believe me.

 

 

But Lamar Jackson declined to sign a GREAT deal (for him). His value since declining to sign has NOT kept pace with the market. He has cost himself money now and later. Even IF he stays healthy moving forward. 

[Billl]

Just now, Richard Noggin said:

 

But Lamar Jackson declined to sign a GREAT deal (for him). His value since declining to sign has NOT kept pace with the market. He has cost himself money now and later. Even IF he stays healthy moving forward. 

So you think he’s not going to make $133M in the next 3 seasons?  That’s the bar, and I’ll take the over.

[Richard Noggin]

Just now, Billl said:

So you think he’s not going to make $133M in the next 3 seasons?  That’s the bar, and I’ll take the over.

 

But what about the past two seasons?! You keep ignoring the TOTAL sum he could have made. What's with that?

[Billl]

1 minute ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

But what about the past two seasons?! You keep ignoring the TOTAL sum he could have made. What's with that?

The contract wasn’t offered until last September.  There’s nothing to ignore.  

[Mikie2times]

@Billl

It seems like you want to play both sides on this. In one post you’re saying this is only about money to this point. In another you start talking about future contract earnings being higher. 

 

Teams have been able to pursue him and they haven’t (not a good look)

 

If he signs the franchise deal he will be a year older the next chance he has at this (not a good look)

 

If he signs the franchise deal he is even a minor injury away from really risking his payday as he’s already shown issues with injuries (and will be a year older) 

 

I would keep the argument only on “up until now”. Outside that, almost no path exists to him making more money next year. He would have to

ball The F out next year, avoid injury, and show he can excel in a passing system. It’s very risky. Look at what Romans QB’s have done in the past and what they do after. Tyrod and Kaep made the pro bowl 😂

 

 

 

 

[Richard Noggin]

Just now, Billl said:

The contract wasn’t offered until last September.  There’s nothing to ignore.  

What was lost this past season? Including the GUARANTEED money that goes beyond his annual salary...because nothing is guaranteed beyond 2023 for Lamar, until it is. He could have had a VAST sum of money even just passively earning interest all this time. And the current trajectory suggests he will go another football season without a lump sum (despite being handsomely rewarded on the tag). So much has been left in the accounts of his team's ownership.

[Mikie2times]

6 minutes ago, Billl said:

So you think he’s not going to make $133M in the next 3 seasons?  That’s the bar, and I’ll take the over.

Not guaranteed he won’t 

[Billl]

1 minute ago, KzooMike said:

@Billl

It seems like you want to play both sides on this. In one post you’re saying this is only about money to this point. In another you start talking about future contract earnings being higher. 

 

Teams have been able to pursue him and they haven’t (not a good look)

 

If he signs the franchise deal he will be a year older the next chance he has at this (not a good look)

 

If he signs the franchise deal he is even a minor injury away from really risking his payday as he’s already shown issues with injuries (and will be a year older) 

 

I would keep the argument only on “up until now”. Outside that, almost no path exists to him making more money next year. He would have to

ball The F out next year, avoid injury, and show he can excel in a passing system. It’s very risky. Look at what Romans QB’s have done in the past and what they do after. Tyrod and Kaep made the pro bowl 😂

 

 

 

 

I’m not playing both sides.  He’s gone the Kirk Cousins route so far.  It’s how you make the most money unless you get injured.  

[BillsShredder83]

10 hours ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I meant for the upcoming season. 

It’s all negotiations.  He doesn’t want to leave and the Ravens don’t want to lose him.  I get both sides. 

I disagree, seems like he very much wants out.... for whatever reason. ego artificially slighted by a team that made him a great offer and has treated him great since day 1

2 hours ago, Augie said:

 

He could have taken it in Crypto like OBJ, then they could share financial and investment advice in the locker room. 

 

.

lets revisit this in 2 years, then 6 and 10. all it ever does is go up, these players dont need liquid cash like that so the players that have taken $$ in btc havent lost anything, and wont unless they sell, which they wont. was never a short term game for these guys, just like any investment isnt

[Billl]

2 minutes ago, Richard Noggin said:

What was lost this past season? Including the GUARANTEED money that goes beyond his annual salary...because nothing is guaranteed beyond 2023 for Lamar, until it is. He could have had a VAST sum of money even just passively earning interest all this time. And the current trajectory suggests he will go another football season without a lump sum (despite being handsomely rewarded on the tag). So much has been left in the accounts of his team's ownership.

Nobody is arguing that he’s turned down guaranteed money.  That’s literally the point.  He’s turned down a bird in the hand because he wants two in the bush.  It may work out and it may not, but there’s no way of knowing yet because he’s neither signed a deal nor missed a paycheck.  Until one of those two things happen, there’s no way of knowing.

 

NFL contracts are negotiations.  Longer deals pay less in total value, but they pay more in guaranteed money.  It’s a hedge for both sides.  Players hedge against injury, and owners hedge against paying full future market value.  Lamar isn’t hedging.  As long as he stays healthy and is viewed as a top 10-15 QB, that’s a win for him.  

 

The whole “passive interest” part of it is ridiculous.  My line of work revolves around it, and if I could invest my money in a fund indexed against the NFL salary cap, I’d do it every time.  But that isn’t even the point.  You’re assuming that a 26 year old celebrity athlete given $Xmillion today is going to have $Xmillion plus interest a year from now, and that’s just not realistic.  26 year olds with money don’t go broke because they lost out on one year of interest.

[Billl]

25 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

Not guaranteed he won’t 

If he told the Ravens he’d take that deal today, they’d sign it in a heartbeat.

[GoBills808]

prediction

 

having a legit wideout for the first time in his career Lamar puts up MVP numbers playing on the tag and Ravens eventually cave and end up giving him everything he wants plus 25% on top in 2024

[Richard Noggin]

8 minutes ago, Billl said:

If he told the Ravens he’d take that deal today, they’d sign it in a heartbeat.

Which would mean his value had declined relative to the cap. My best case guess for him now is he plays on the tag, stays healthy, and then takes a deal that is NOT equal in value relative to the cap going into the 2024 season. And he made less for two years than he would have otherwise. It's a losing proposition in the vast majority of simulations.

 

But hey, I'm wrong all the time.

Edited April 11, 2023 by Richard Noggin

[Teddy KGB]

7 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

prediction

 

having a legit wideout for the first time in his career Lamar puts up MVP numbers playing on the tag and Ravens eventually cave and end up giving him everything he wants plus 25% on top in 2024

Odell quits by week 5 after watching Lamar spin in circles while he’s wide open 

[Captain Hindsight]

1 hour ago, Teddy KGB said:

Odell quits by week 5 after watching Lamar spin in circles while he’s wide open 

His dad is probably already brushing up on his video editing skills

[Einstein]

10 hours ago, Billl said:

What money is lost?  He’s going to make more than Josh this year if he signs the Franchise tag.  In all likelihood, that won’t happen though.  He’s going to sign an even bigger contract than he was supposedly offered last season, and he will have made more money playing under his existing deal in 2022 than he would have if he’d signed a new deal last year.  

 

The math isn’t that difficult.  Players give up money by signing long term deals in exchange for the security of guaranteed money.  The only way it’s a losing proposition is if he sustains a long-term injury.  A franchise QB will always make more playing on one-year deals as long as they stay healthy.  

 

I can’t tell if you genuinely don’t understand this concept or if you’re just trolling, so i’ll just let it go.

[Einstein]

10 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

But what about the past two seasons?! You keep ignoring the TOTAL sum he could have made. What's with that?

 

I genuinely don’t think he understands. He keeps talking about how Lamar will make more on the transition tag this year than Allen, ignoring the previous 2 year payday. Ravens offered Lamar a huge deal in 2021.  He also says Lamar’s deal is independent of Allen’s, despite the Ravens offering Lamar a contract worth more than Allen’s. He also compared Lamar’s strategy to Kirk, which isn’t the same as Kirk played under franchise tags, not transition tags, which is a large monetary difference, AND Kirk wasn’t being offered the second largest QB contract in the league and turning it down. I genuinely think he is just ignorant in this particular conversation.