which option is better for 2023 & beyond

[beebe]

My general take: The Bills have built their best rosters (2020-2023) at the absolute worst possible time. The rise of the Chiefs, combined with the AFC turning into a super conference, has coincided with Buffalo's return to relevance. This year, 11 of the top 16 teams in the league are likely to be in the AFC. Eight of the 10 best QBs are in the AFC (especially if Rodgers ends up with the Jets or Raiders.) And the Bills, as of now, are projected to play 12 games against Vegas's 15 best projected teams. That includes games vs both Super Bowl participants (Chiefs and Eagles) and the AFC runner up (Bengals). 

 

The Bills can do everything right this year, and yet the path to winning the AFC in 2023 will likely involve beating three of the following in the playoffs: 

 

Tua/Dolphins

Herbert/Chargers

Burrow/Bengals

Lamar/Ravens

Mahomes/Chiefs

Watson/Browns

Rodgers/Jets or Raiders

Lawrence/Jaguars

 

It's a potential playoff gauntlet unlike anything we've ever seen, whether you're the best team or the third best team. No team in the AFC — not even the Chiefs — would have better than a 1-in-3 chance at winning three straight games against the above teams in the playoffs. 

 

With all that being said, what is the best path for 2023 and beyond? 

 

Option 1

 

Build the best roster possible this offseason. Sign key veterans to replace possible departures (ie Poyer, Edmunds), beef up the lines on both sides of the ball, sign a veteran WR and draft another, and basically just go as hard at winning the SB as possible.

 

Upside: The Bills give themselves the best chance to win this year with a team/roster that is no worse than third best in the AFC. 

 

Downside: If the Bills don't win it all, the cap situation in the near-term will be manageable but not great; if free agents/veterans are signed to short-term deals and see significant time, the Bills probably aren't getting younger/developing depth for future years. Basically: The next offseason will feel a lot like the last three offseasons.

 

Option 2 

 

Copy the Chiefs' approach and turn this into a cap reset/get younger year, but still field a team that is likely to be top 5 in the AFC at worst. Make the bold move of trading Diggs in exchange for major draft capital, try to crush the draft, and beef up the rest of the roster (ie fix the OL) with the savings. 

 

Upside: Josh Allen does more with less, just like Mahomes did in 2022, and the Bills offense still performs at a high level even with Diggs' departure. The Bills run the ball better behind an improved OL, a rookie WR emerges, Shakir takes a step forward, and a few Bills rookies get significant snaps and carve out starting spots on defense. The Bills make the playoffs and give themselves a chance at advancing to the Super Bowl, just like the last three years. The cap situation opens up a bit in 2024 and there's likely an extra draft pick or two as well from the Diggs trade. 

 

Downside: The Bills worsen their chances at winning the Super Bowl, and if the draft goes poorly, the roster suddenly won't look very good (which includes a below avg wide receiver room.) 

[T master]

It's definitely not going to get any easier going forward for the Bills i heard that this years schedule has 3 of the final 4 teams in the play offs so strength of schedule is going to be a BIOTCH this year in order for them to stay ahead of the class even in the east . 

[wppete]

Only thing we have to do is protect Josh and give him weapons. If Beane can do that we win it all easily. 

[Einstein]

Unless the Bills absolutely nail the draft, I don’t see them as a legitimate Super Bowl contender next year.

 

Playoff team? Sure. But it will be so much harder.

 

The Jets defense is legit and they have a stud at both WR and RB, and all signs point to them signing a capable veteran QB (maybe Carr?). They’re a playoff team with Carr last season.

 

The Dolphins issue in 2022 was defense. They just hired Vic Fangio who is an elite defensive mind and you can bet theylll sign and draft some defense guys too. Tua has marshmallow brain but he doesn’t have to do much with the abundance of riches he has on offense.

 

Dont sleep on the Patriots either. Bill O’Brein was a good signing. Mac is still Mac but O’Brein will get the best out of Mac.

 

[Gregg]

Build the OL and get another playmaker at WR to go opposite Diggs. The D will probably lose Poyer and Edmunds. They will get back Hyde. Hope Tre can get back to his elite level of play. Have to see how FA and the draft play out but the pressure is definitely on Beane. They don't need a rebuild but more of a retooling as they did win 13 games last year. Need to build around Josh like the Chiefs do around Mahomes. Was the Chiefs D really that great last year? They have Jones and they are a decent D but definitely not elite. They still won the Super Bowl. 

[SCBills]

I'd say reset like the Chiefs, but not by trading Diggs due to his accelerated cap hit.

 

-Let Poyer walk

-Let Edmunds walk

-Trade Oliver

 

Remake the Defense.  The core of Edmunds/Poyer/Oliver has run it's course and that money needs to be re-allocated to the Offense.

 

-Sign a mid-tier vet FA MLB

-Sign a proven situational pass rusher like Melvin Ingram

-Transition Benford to S and bring back Marlowe as insurance/depth

-Draft a DT, S and Day 3 CB

 

Tying up 25M+ in Oliver and Edmunds next year is cap malpractice.  Neither of them bring us any closer to a Super Bowl appearance. 

 

Sign two above average OL Free Agents so Josh has proven protection, also draft an OL

 

Sign a WR and/or draft a WR

 

Day 3 RB

 

We have options, but it's going to take bold moves by this Front Office.  Or we can remain held cap hostage by paying absurd money to a DT and MLB.

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by SCBills

[artmalibu]

I see the idea of trading Diggs but what is the dead cap that comes with doing that?

 

[HOUSE]

The Bills are fine, I go with the same team but change offensive strategy to a more wide open attack.  If its the same deep ball offense this team isn't going anywhere.

Also a more open gambling defense with much more blitzing is a must.

[Airseven]

Bills are not in position to "reset" like the Chiefs. They don't have a valuable asset to trade away for additional high picks. Their roster is already littered with holes. They don't have the luxury of a Pat Mahomes who can stabilize any "rebuild" effort. They don't draft as well. And, of course, their cap is wrecked.

[Charles Romes]

Diggs would not yield a haul of picks close to Hill due to age and Hill’s generational speed.  With Diggs crossing 30 where a lot of elite 1 receivers hit the wall (Julio, Hilton, green, hopkins, etc.) with a big contract may not be able to do better than a single 2nd rounder at this point.  

[BuffaloRebound]

How does trading diggs help us get better? He’s our Kelce.  

[dorquemada]

18 minutes ago, HOUSE said:

The Bills are fine, I go with the same team but change offensive strategy to a more wide open attack.  If its the same deep ball offense this team isn't going anywhere.

Also a more open gambling defense with much more blitzing is a must.

 

Yeah it's really this.  Our D is strait up timid, especially when you look at what we've got invested in it.  KC doesnt have as much talent on D but they make big plays when they need to.  On top of that let Josh cook and force other teams to play catch up

4 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

How does trading diggs help us get better? He’s our Kelce.  

 

Trading Diggs is a dumb idea even by TBD offseason crackposting standards

[nedboy7]

One bad game and we are trading Josh next. 

 

Trading one of the top 5 WRs is pure stupidity. 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by nedboy7

[somnus00]

Yes, the chiefs traded Hill last yearb but they still kept one of the 2 best TEs in the history of the NFL. The Bills don't have a guy like that through which to funnel the offense if they trade Diggs.

 

I agree that we need to get younger, and let those young guys play.

[78thealltimegreat]

I look at the Cowboys model except our QB is all world theirs is maybe all Harris county or something.

You build the offensive line and add weapons then keep adding picks for depth on defense using the compensatory pick model. 
The one thing you also need to consider is as hard as it is for the Bills all those other teams have to play each other too. 

Edited February 23, 2023 by 78thealltimegreat

[Airseven]

27 minutes ago, Charles Romes said:

Diggs would not yield a haul of picks close to Hill due to age and Hill’s generational speed.  With Diggs crossing 30 where a lot of elite 1 receivers hit the wall (Julio, Hilton, green, hopkins, etc.) with a big contract may not be able to do better than a single 2nd rounder at this point.  

 

Agreed. And they'd lose their top weapon on offense and take a cap hit in the process.

[Gregg]

35 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Bills are not in position to "reset" like the Chiefs. They don't have a valuable asset to trade away for additional high picks. Their roster is already littered with holes. They don't have the luxury of a Pat Mahomes who can stabilize any "rebuild" effort. They don't draft as well. And, of course, their cap is wrecked.

 

Josh Allen can definitely do that. Mahomes has a good OL and Allen doesn't. That's the difference.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, artmalibu said:

I see the idea of trading Diggs but what is the dead cap that comes with doing that?

 

The cap consequences of trading Diggs makes it virtually impossible. Spotrac link

If traded, his cap charges would go from a hit of $20.3M to a dead cap hit of $37.6M. So by trading him we’d lose $17.3M in cap space AND we’d have to replace him. 

[dorquemada]

13 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

The cap consequences of trading Diggs makes it virtually impossible. Spotrac link

If traded, his cap charges would go from a hit of $20.3M to a dead cap hit of $37.6M. So by trading him we’d lose $17.3M in cap space AND we’d have to replace him. 

 

It's because today is upside down day, and another $17m in the hole is a good thing

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, beebe said:

My general take: The Bills have built their best rosters (2020-2023) at the absolute worst possible time. The rise of the Chiefs, combined with the AFC turning into a super conference, has coincided with Buffalo's return to relevance. This year, 11 of the top 16 teams in the league are likely to be in the AFC. Eight of the 10 best QBs are in the AFC (especially if Rodgers ends up with the Jets or Raiders.) And the Bills, as of now, are projected to play 12 games against Vegas's 15 best projected teams. That includes games vs both Super Bowl participants (Chiefs and Eagles) and the AFC runner up (Bengals). 

 

The Bills can do everything right this year, and yet the path to winning the AFC in 2023 will likely involve beating three of the following in the playoffs: 

 

You are a ray of sunshine on a cloudy day.

 

"One of the problems with being a pessimist is that you can never celebrate when you are proven right." - Thomas Sowell