very good SI piece by Andrew Brandt on "cap jail" nonsense because you had to pay a quarterback

[newcam2012]

51 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Yeah, fair enough.

 

Same is true of Mahomes and the Chiefs, of course. Any really good QB really. 

 

 

 

 

My God, you're some kind of savant on missing the point. 

 

Vegas doesn't pretend to tell the future. Grading them on whether they hit in hindsight is completely misunderstanding what they do.

 

They're about making strong guesses about the future and ranking likelihoods. Most particularly in predicting how the masses of people will bet. They're sensational at it. 

 

And again, anyone who thinks that a team doesn't have a chance to go all the way just because they had problems in the playoffs for a year or two simply doesn't understand how the world works. Some teams win their first time. Others take some time. Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Ravens, and on and on and on.

 

You said "Any reasonable football fan can see the Chiefs and Cinci are far better teams than the Bills." That Vegas line tells you that you're absolutely wrong on that. Fans are betting on the Bills over everyone but the Chiefs next year. You're far more of a miserabilist than the huge majority of fans.

 

Fans has confidence they get it done. The reason simply being that that's the likelihood, that they have a good chance to get it done. Far higher than your befuddled suggestions of the Jets and the others.

 

As for your last sentence there, what you're claiming is a fact is - in fact - an opinion. And not an especially bright one.

 

At this point, I'm just spinning my wheels. 

 

You won't convince me that the Bills will win a Super Bowl anytime soon. Neither will the Vegas line. 

 

Hopefully, significant changes are made. That has to start with coaching, schemes, play calling, player developement, etc.. Then I can get aboard and think differently. Until then, I will remain skeptical for good reason. 

 

I'll end with a Edmund Burke quote "those who don't know history are doomed to repeat it." 

 

 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

Yeah, fair enough.

 

Same is true of Mahomes and the Chiefs, of course. Any really good QB really. 

 

Much more so us tho.

 

[hondo in seattle]

Brandt, formerly VP of the Packers, knows far more about football than I ever will.  

That said, there's a giant hole in his logic.  He says that teams with big-salaried QBs are not challenged to build contending teams.   He goes on to explain how rookies on rookie-contracts (more than half the roster) only take up about $30 million of cap space and any money a team doesn't spend in one year is rolled over to the next, and so on.  With so much money to spend on a comparative few number of vets, there's plenty of money to build a roster. 

 

Here's the problem.    A team with a QB on a rookie contract might be spending about $1 million on their starting QB.  The Packers, for instance, are spending over $50 million.  Teams helmed by youngsters have roughly $40-50 million more to spend on free agents than teams with veteran star QBs.  That buys you a lot of talent.    It's easy to build up a roster when you have a rookie-contract QB.  It's much harder if you don't.  

[Alphadawg7]

19 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

The only untouchable player on this roster wears number 17. Everyone can be cut or restructured.
There is never cap jail even when the Bills lose players to free agency they simply get comp picks in the draft. The Baltimore Ravens and Cowboys have been doing it for years and are just as close to a Super Bowl as the Bills. 

 

Again, you are missing the point.  Just because Buffalo, and now Cowboys and Ravens as you put it have done good jobs at avoiding cap jail does not in any way mean cap jail doesn't exist for teams who do not properly manage it.  

 

That is like someone saying that just they haven't fallen off a bicycle and gotten hurt that no one is it risk of falling off a bike and getting hurt.  The logic of it not yet happening to someone specific therefore somehow means it doesn't happen at all is not correct.  

 

No one is arguing that cap maneuvers are not possible to free up more space.  But to say that no team is at risk of creating cap problems down the road if they mishandle how they do those, player contracts, roster decisions, etc is incorrect.  

[78thealltimegreat]

48 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Again, you are missing the point.  Just because Buffalo, and now Cowboys and Ravens as you put it have done good jobs at avoiding cap jail does not in any way mean cap jail doesn't exist for teams who do not properly manage it.  

 

That is like someone saying that just they haven't fallen off a bicycle and gotten hurt that no one is it risk of falling off a bike and getting hurt.  The logic of it not yet happening to someone specific therefore somehow means it doesn't happen at all is not correct.  

 

No one is arguing that cap maneuvers are not possible to free up more space.  But to say that no team is at risk of creating cap problems down the road if they mishandle how they do those, player contracts, roster decisions, etc is incorrect.  

Of course you would think that and of course would be wrong

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/24/2023 at 4:24 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

Of course you would think that and of course would be wrong

Lmao, I mean it’s happened many times.  But ok lmao

[Zerovoltz]

Here is the thing about big QB contracts.

 

If you are paying a QB one of these very large deals, like the Bills are with Allen, the Chiefs with Mahomes....then the QB MUST be of the caliber that he can play at a high and efficient level with lesser talent, or less star power around, and more MEH/JAG types/Rookies around.

 

Brandt is emboldened here by the idea Matt Stafford just won a title on a team the truly said "F them picks" and got alot of vet talent, kicked alot of that money down the road for CAP ACCOUNTING purposes, and they won.  Mahomes, on a large cap hit this past season, and a bunch of rookies, and hodge podge WR corps...won.

 

There are only a very small number of QB's who can take a high pct of the cap at a given time or over a period of time, and take whatever roster you cobble together.  

 

Kirk Cousins is a decent QB, but he's paid too much / his pay has to account for too much space on their cap to put an adequate enough roster around him to win a super bowl.  (rather, it's improbably they will win one with him, not impossible)  Dak Prescott...same problem.  Kyler Murray.  Same problem.  

 

Daniel Jones, Russel Wilson (at this point) Stafford, are QB's all about looking at some big contracts where they might squeeze in a year or maybe 2 of a low cap hit and try and put alot around those guys for a year or maybe 2, and then that's it....

 

Burrow, and Lamar also about to get huge paydays.  When the CAP hits come around, will they be able to put enough together?  Maybe.  Maybe not.

 

I don't know where the line is...what the pct is, and what the talent level is, where you CAN or you CAN NOT pay X and win with only X amount of talent, but I strongly suspect that line only has few guys above the high pay/high talent threshold and a whole lot under it.

 

Guys above this line:

 

Mahomes

Allen

MAYBE Burrow.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/24/2023 at 4:24 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

Of course you would think that and of course would be wrong

 

So much for your "cap jail" doesn't exist theory lol...

 

Vikings just cut their long time captain, pro bowler, and leading tackler in Kendricks because of cap issues and being $25M over the cap prior to the cut.  But because they saved $9.5M it became something they had to do.  

 

Rams are now trying to trade away Allen Robinson and are willing to eat and pay part of their salary just to get his big contract out of there because they still have cap issues too.  

 

I mean these are just a couple of many examples that happen all the time when a teams cap situation becomes a problem.  Some GM's are great at avoiding getting into these worse situations or at least mitigating them to a degree.  Others not so much or sometimes they willfully put themselves into a situation where the cap is going to become an issue shortly down the road for the purpose of going all in on a SB like the Rams did (doesn't always work like it did for the Rams either).  Regardless how a team gets there, it's still a real thing.  I mean NFL history is littered with teams who have gone through a major cap crisis and had to take a step back before they were able to clean it up.   

 

And again, just because I am saying cap jail exists does NOT mean I am saying Bills are in cap jail.  I think Beane is one of the best GM's in football at how he handles the cap, player contract structures, restructures, etc. 

[dave mcbride]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So much for your "cap jail" doesn't exist theory lol...

 

Vikings just cut their long time captain, pro bowler, and leading tackler in Kendricks because of cap issues and being $25M over the cap prior to the cut.  But because they saved $9.5M it became something they had to do.  

 

Rams are now trying to trade away Allen Robinson and are willing to eat and pay part of their salary just to get his big contract out of there because they still have cap issues too.  

 

I mean these are just a couple of many examples that happen all the time when a teams cap situation becomes a problem.  Some GM's are great at avoiding getting into these worse situations or at least mitigating them to a degree.  Others not so much or sometimes they willfully put themselves into a situation where the cap is going to become an issue shortly down the road for the purpose of going all in on a SB like the Rams did (doesn't always work like it did for the Rams either).  Regardless how a team gets there, it's still a real thing.  I mean NFL history is littered with teams who have gone through a major cap crisis and had to take a step back before they were able to clean it up.   

 

And again, just because I am saying cap jail exists does NOT mean I am saying Bills are in cap jail.  I think Beane is one of the best GM's in football at how he handles the cap, player contract structures, restructures, etc. 

Kendricks was a very mediocre player this year for a horrible defense. He is 31 and slowing down. He is definitely not the same player as the all pro from 2019. QBs had a rating against him of 82 in 2019 and 59 in 2020. In both 2021 and 2022, QBs have had a passer rating of over 100 against him. And if one pays any attention to PFF, he was rated 61.1 this year, which is below average. You have to factor that into your assessment. It's less about going into cap jail and more about paying outsized money for past production that ain't gonna return. 

[Alphadawg7]

31 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

Kendricks was a very mediocre player this year for a horrible defense. He is 31 and slowing down. He is definitely not the same player as the all pro from 2019. QBs had a rating against him of 82 in 2019 and 59 in 2020. In both 2021 and 2022, QBs have had a passer rating of over 100 against him. And if one pays any attention to PFF, he was rated 61.1 this year, which is below average. You have to factor that into your assessment. It's less about going into cap jail and more about paying outsized money for past production that ain't gonna return. 

 

For the record, I agree with you that at 31 things like his production and contract size weigh in on these decisions.  But, you realize the Vikings were dead last in the NFL in pass defense the past 2 years thought right?  Showing some pass defense stats doesn't tell the whole picture on Kendricks ability, he still led the team in tackles and was still one of their better players on Defense.  Jerry Hughes put up 2 sacks for us last year and then went on to put up 9 sacks on a new defense this year despite everyone saying he was washed because the Bills didn't get many sacks.  Kendricks pass defense stats are going to look worse while playing on a team whose is the worst in the NFL at defending the pass, doesn't mean Kendricks is the reason.  

 

Kendricks will have suitors, he is only 31 and he is still a good player even if he isn't at the level he was in his 20's.  The only reason Kendricks is not a Viking today is because his cap savings by cutting him was nearly $10M, far more than they could save restructuring, at a time the team is way over the cap.  

 

Vikings are staring down the real possibility of moving on from Dalvin Cook too, who is so far refusing a pay cut. 

 

The point is, they don't really have a choice in these matters do to the cap situation.  On a defense that had major issues already, they had to cut one of their better players on the defense for cap reasons and create a new hole to fill.  That was more a cap decision than a flat out ability decision.  

 

And again, this isn't the end all, be all example of cap issues. There are countless examples throughout the NFL and its history where teams have had plenty of cap issues.

Edited March 6, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[78thealltimegreat]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So much for your "cap jail" doesn't exist theory lol...

 

Vikings just cut their long time captain, pro bowler, and leading tackler in Kendricks because of cap issues and being $25M over the cap prior to the cut.  But because they saved $9.5M it became something they had to do.  

 

Rams are now trying to trade away Allen Robinson and are willing to eat and pay part of their salary just to get his big contract out of there because they still have cap issues too.  

 

I mean these are just a couple of many examples that happen all the time when a teams cap situation becomes a problem.  Some GM's are great at avoiding getting into these worse situations or at least mitigating them to a degree.  Others not so much or sometimes they willfully put themselves into a situation where the cap is going to become an issue shortly down the road for the purpose of going all in on a SB like the Rams did (doesn't always work like it did for the Rams either).  Regardless how a team gets there, it's still a real thing.  I mean NFL history is littered with teams who have gone through a major cap crisis and had to take a step back before they were able to clean it up.   

 

And again, just because I am saying cap jail exists does NOT mean I am saying Bills are in cap jail.  I think Beane is one of the best GM's in football at how he handles the cap, player contract structures, restructures, etc. 

You picked a bad time to try to own me as the saints just signed Carr to a 4 year deal 

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

You picked a bad time to try to own me as the saints just signed Carr to a 4 year deal 

Why don’t you read my post in the Saints thread.  Lmao, saints are probably one of the worst examples you could cite.  You know a 7 win team $30m over the cap. 

Edited March 6, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[78thealltimegreat]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Why don’t you read my post in the Saints thread.  Lmao, saints are probably one of the worst examples you could cite.

And you keep losing this argument it’s ok wait till you see the money the Saints came up with reportedly to sign him 

[Alphadawg7]

5 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

And you keep losing this argument it’s ok wait till you see the money the Saints came up with reportedly to sign him 

 

Haha, you said it right there...wait until you see the money the Saints came up with.  Where do you think that money is coming from?  They are creating more future cap issues, cutting starting players, and creating dead cap hits through restructures that will impact their ability to keep players in the coming seasons too.  And they were already doing that just to get under the cap as they entered the offseason as a 7 win team that was $30M over the cap.   And for what?  To sign a middle of the pack QB who didn't do much in Las Vegas with better weapons in guys like Davante Adams and NFL leading rusher Jacobs?  He has a young piece in Olave, but he is no Adams, and Kamara is on the decline and not close to the player Jacobs is today.  

 

Bahaha, but you think this proves the cap doesn't matter.  The Saints are one of the worst examples in the NFL on how to handle the cap and also for not getting results despite their cap issues.  Unless you think being cap strapped every year to just win enough games to not get a good draft pick and yet not be good enough to contend for a SB.  

[ColoradoBills]

21 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

And you keep losing this argument it’s ok wait till you see the money the Saints came up with reportedly to sign him 

 

Any team can restructure and get money every single year.  There is no debate about that.

 

Do you know which team with a high $ QB that did not restructure one penny last year?  KC Chiefs.  Mahomes played on his full cap hit.

They let a high $ WR go (because they didn't want to pay big bucks for a WR).

 

Some fans should look at KC and what the Pats* did concerning the handling of the cap instead of the Saints who won 1 Superbowl back when

smartphones just came out and never returned to the Superbowl.  KC has a lot of big decisions this offseason, that's who I'm going to be 

watching.  For any fans curious look at their cap situation AND their FA list I will post them below.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/cap/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kansas-city-chiefs/

 

 

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Haha, you said it right there...wait until you see the money the Saints came up with.  Where do you think that money is coming from?  They are creating more future cap issues, cutting starting players, and creating dead cap hits through restructures that will impact their ability to keep players in the coming seasons too.  And they were already doing that just to get under the cap as they entered the offseason as a 7 win team that was $30M over the cap.   And for what?  To sign a middle of the pack QB who didn't do much in Las Vegas with better weapons in guys like Davante Adams and NFL leading rusher Jacobs?  He has a young piece in Olave, but he is no Adams, and Kamara is on the decline and not close to the player Jacobs is today.  

 

Bahaha, but you think this proves the cap doesn't matter.  The Saints are one of the worst examples in the NFL on how to handle the cap and also for not getting results despite their cap issues.  Unless you think being cap strapped every year to just win enough games to not get a good draft pick and yet not be good enough to contend for a SB.  

4 years 150 million for a team that is over by 25 million kinda puts a dent in your cap jail argument doesn’t it? 

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Any team can restructure and get money every single year.  There is no debate about that.

 

Do you know which team with a high $ QB that did not restructure one penny last year?  KC Chiefs.  Mahomes played on his full cap hit.

They let a high $ WR go (because they didn't want to pay big bucks for a WR).

 

Some fans should look at KC and what the Pats* did concerning the handling of the cap instead of the Saints who won 1 Superbowl back when

smartphones just came out and never returned to the Superbowl.  KC has a lot of big decisions this offseason, that's who I'm going to be 

watching.  For any fans curious look at their cap situation AND their FA list I will post them below.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/cap/

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/kansas-city-chiefs/

 

 

That’s what I’m saying and the ones that let free agents walk can play the comp pick game and recoup in the draft now that I understand how the comp pick game is played 

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

4 years 150 million for a team that is over by 25 million kinda puts a dent in your cap jail argument doesn’t it? 

 

No, but it does confirm you actually don't understand the cap and are unclear about how signing him impacts the team as a whole, now and in the future.

[78thealltimegreat]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No, but it does confirm you actually don't understand the cap and are unclear about how signing him impacts the team as a whole, now and in the future.

Of course that’s why he signed with the checks notes currently 25 million over the cap saints 

[dave mcbride]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No, but it does confirm you actually don't understand the cap and are unclear about how signing him impacts the team as a whole, now and in the future.

So much of the cap jail concept relates to the QB. Teams that find themselves in a bad spot are typically teams with mid-tier QBs earning massive salaries who are also completely dependent on elite talent around them to have any success (the Kirk Cousinses, Derek Carrs, and Jimmy Gs of the world). NO always got away with their cap situation in the past because they had a QB who could make any receiver look terrific and who raised the play of everyone around him. Bad QB contracts are the real problem. I look at teams like Baltimore, Cleveland, the Giants, and Minnesota and see problems given the money involved with the QB position. And if I'm Miami I don't know what to do with Tua. I also don't know what Baltimore will do. With regard to Minnesota, I say this even though the Vikings went 13-4. That was the most bogus 13-win season since the Bears in 2003, who also had a bunch of miracle victories. When a Dalvin Cook leaves on a team with Tom Brady on it, it simply doesn't matter much because the team would always be fine on offense no matter who the back was. A mediocre talent like Cousins needs Dalvin Cook, however. Josh Allen is the opposite of Kirk Cousins, so I generally feel very good about the Bills cap situation in future years. Yeah, guys will leave but the core will remain and the Bills should be in good shape. Same with KC.

[ColoradoBills]

18 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

 

That’s what I’m saying and the ones that let free agents walk can play the comp pick game and recoup in the draft now that I understand how the comp pick game is played 

 

I don't know if you looked at the KC Spotrac sites I gave.  Just heard on NFLN that the Chiefs are probably letting Orlando Brown Jr walk.

They also released Frank Clark (no comp there).

Money is a factor.