very good SI piece by Andrew Brandt on "cap jail" nonsense because you had to pay a quarterback

[dave mcbride]

14 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

He is very good at working the numbers. 

 

He is just not good at selecting free agents or drafting. 

Anyone who says he is bad at drafting has to at least mention that he drafted Josh Allen, who will arguably be the best player in franchise history when it’s all said and done. And he wasn’t served up to the Bills on a platter. Beane had to be really creative to get in position to take him. Everything else is secondary. 

1 hour ago, Magox said:

Of course the cap matters.  These aren't fake numbers, the cap maneuvering is just a way to kick the can down the road, but at the end at some point there is a reckoning.

 

Also, this whole Lamar Jackson debate with some analysts who say "Just pay the man".   "Do it at whatever cost", these sort of proclamations and analysis is lazy.

Yes, I agree that you should do everything within reason to keep him or any other young franchise QB but it's not at "any cost".   Fully guaranteeing his contract means there is very little cap maneuvering - you have less flexibility to help the team out in the interim, not to mention Lamar has been very injury prone the past couple seasons and lets face it, Lamar without his running ability is a middling QB.  

 

Where the Ravens went wrong was not signing Lamar up to a long-term deal after his third year, now they are paying the price of the Deshaun Watson fully guaranteed debacle.  My guess is that after the Hurts, Burrow and Herbert contracts which I would imagine will go back to not fully guaranteed contracts will bring the QB market back to where it was, probably with a little more guaranteed money pre Watson.

 

I bring up Lamar because I was listening to Brandt yesterday on NFL Sirius and he was expressing frustration with the Ravens for not getting the deal done.

If you read the piece, you’ll see that the Browns have so much rollover in cap space that the Watson contract isn’t particularly onerous for them.

[dave mcbride]

12 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Allen has been 90% of the team's recent success and playoff streak. Without him the team would likely be a bottom third tier team. 

 

Truthfully, when you analyze the Bills roster it's not overtly good. After Allen and Diggs there's not a lot of meat on the bone offensively. 

 

Defensively it seems like it doesn't matter who's on the field come playoff time. The nice defensive regular season stats go out the window. The teams thrash Fraizer's defense. Pretty consistent theme. Gotta hope the Bills play QB Jones or Jackson. 

The Bills have have put up 5 above-average defensive performances in the postseason under McDermott/Frazier and 4 bad ones. Let’s not exaggerate.

[zow2]

12 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Allen has been 90% of the team's recent success and playoff streak. Without him the team would likely be a bottom third tier team. 

 

Truthfully, when you analyze the Bills roster it's not overtly good. After Allen and Diggs there's not a lot of meat on the bone offensively. 

 

Defensively it seems like it doesn't matter who's on the field come playoff time. The nice defensive regular season stats go out the window. The teams thrash Fraizer's defense. Pretty consistent theme. Gotta hope the Bills play QB Jones or Jackson. 

 

There's a case to be made that having the true "franchise QB", like the Bills have...make it so you can get away with cutting corners in other areas.  Kansas City just proved it.  Get the man an O-line, hit on some skill player draft picks and F/A's.  Have a good scheme on D where guys can fit in and slow down the opponent.  As you stated, in the playoffs against solid offense, you can't stop them...you can only slow them and try to win the game by scoring which Allen can do with the best of them.

[DJB]

Is Andrew Brandt the guy with the big ears?

[Dopey]

8 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Not claiming he hasn't done good things. I absolutely give credit to Beane and McD for building a winning franchise. 

 

However, they have woefully fallen short in progressing the team further. That's my major issue, complaint, and concern. 

 

The last two years the Bills were primed to make at least a Super Bowl appearance and arguably win it all. The organization and team failed miserably. Coaches were clearly out coached and out planned and out maneuvered. Players failed to step up and execute. Allen had very little support. 

 

Any reasonable football fan can see the Chiefs and Cinci are far better teams than the Bills.

 

Other teams like Miami, Jets, LA, and the Jags are right there maybe better. This Bills team is likely descending than ascending.

 

It's a good to very good team that's just not good enough to proceed to the Super Bowl. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost the division and failed to make the playoffs.

 

I still lean on giving the division edge to the Bills purely because of Allen. He's just that dynamic and good. Likely make the playoffs if he stays healthy. 

 

Depends on how you measure success. As for me, 3-5 years ago. It was such a pleasure to see them winning in the regular season. Win the division. Great to see them advance to the playoffs. 

 

However, at some point the goalposts have moved or should have moved. The last two years weren't just about making the playoffs. It was about going to the Super Bowl and  winning it all.  

 

Fast forward to the state of the team now. It has holes or weaknesses throughout the roster in various areas. We know what they are. No way in heck can they all be adequately be addressed. Let's not even get into the injuries the team will suffer next year. They will have injuries. 

 

Hope that helps you see things in a different light. 

I get your point and frustration, but the idea the organization failed miserably? I see that as a tad extreme.   There are 32 nfl franchises and we’re seen as a top 3-5 organization by “professional “ pundits. We’re on the right track. We’ll be one of the favorites next season by those pundits. As we should. 

[HappyDays]

Related, Cover 1 released their annual salary cap podcast yesterday:

 

 

It's nearly 2 hours long but a great listen. Just by restructuring Allen's and Miller's contracts, which is almost certain to happen, we will free up enough salary to be below the cap. And then there's a bunch of other moves we can make to free up plenty of other space to make some moves this offseason.

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

Anyone who says he is bad at drafting has to at least mention that he drafted Josh Allen, who will arguably be the best player in franchise history when it’s all said and done. And he wasn’t served up to the Bills on a platter. Beane had to be really creative to get in position to take him. Everything else is secondary. 

If you read the piece, you’ll see that the Browns have so much rollover in cap space that the Watson contract isn’t particularly onerous for them.

No doubt the Allen pick was a grand slam. It was a high risk high reward pick. It arguably transformed the Bills franchise. 

 

Beane deserves credit and praise and then some more. He found the coveted franchise QB. A huge game changing selection. 

 

However, what has Beane done since the Allen pick? He doesn't simply get a pass because he found the Bills QB. 

 

I agree that Beane's misses have hurt the team. The failure to support and protect Allen has led to disappointing losses. The failure to change coaches and schemes has led to early playoff losses. That's on Beane. 

 

In short, the team with its franchise QB has flatly disappointed to advance in the playoffs. Something has I change and I don't see much change yet. 

3 hours ago, dave mcbride said:

The Bills have have put up 5 above-average defensive performances in the postseason under McDermott/Frazier and 4 bad ones. Let’s not exaggerate.

I don't think I'm exaggerating. I have little to no confidence that a Fraizer/McD defense can get it done in the playoffs. Not sure how you can? 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

I get your point and frustration, but the idea the organization failed miserably? I see that as a tad extreme.   There are 32 nfl franchises and we’re seen as a top 3-5 organization by “professional “ pundits. We’re on the right track. We’ll be one of the favorites next season by those pundits. As we should. 

That's fair.

 

I feel like the Bills organization is settling on being a good to very good team. Seems like they want to make minor changes and run it back. 

 

Coaching and schemes need to change. The Bills haven't learned from the past. Recently, we have seen some frustration by Allen and Diggs. I believe they want changes that can led to big playoff wins and advancement. What are those changes? You think McD, Fraizer, or Dorsey are going to change enough to make a difference? 

 

Analyze the team's roster. It has some holes that truly prevent the Bills from beating top tier teams in the playoffs. We've seen that the last few years. What makes you think the Bills can close the gap and improve enough? 

 

The Bills organization has failed to adequately build up both sides of the line. We all know that the game is usually won in the trenches. That just so happens to be a weakness of the Bills. A weakness that has existed for years. Correct? 

 

In short, I see a descending Bills team not an ascending team. The Jets, Dolphins, Cinci, KC and the Jags are on the right track. The arrow is clearly going up. Not sure you can say that about the Bills. We fans have hope and Allen. Frankly that's fallen short and likely to continue. 

[78thealltimegreat]

14 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I dont think its that dire, but I do think this is a critical offseason.  We still have a very good roster, but I am more concerned with 2 coordinators.  They are not being improved upon, and I just lack confidence in both of them.  Dorsey at least has potential to improve, Frazier I fear is just always going to have the wrong approach in the playoffs when we face teams like KC and Cincy.  

 

But thats just it...you are talking "extensions"...those don't affect the cap until after their current deals expire.  So doesn't matter if they hand them a truck of money this year, Burrow still has a year left and a 5th year option left on his deal, and Chase has 2 years and a 5th year option left.  They have the flexibility to push their cap hits out 2 and 3 years from now if they want.

So does Buffalo with restructures Josh alone clears 21 million in cap space. There is no such thing as cap jail see the move the saints made with their OT yesterday. 
If Buffalo wants to a sign a player they can it won’t be Von Miller but they can sign a guy or two.
 

[Devilmann]

22 hours ago, HOUSE said:

Let me manage the money, I guarantee big savings....

 

 Players can buy their own uniforms and

No more Gatorade,  drink water 

 

.

 

 

 

Jeez just roll out the water hose already and as a bonus bring the sprinkler connection out so if players get hot they can play in the water. 

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

So does Buffalo with restructures Josh alone clears 21 million in cap space. There is no such thing as cap jail see the move the saints made with their OT yesterday. 
If Buffalo wants to a sign a player they can it won’t be Von Miller but they can sign a guy or two.
 

 

Just because Buffalo is not in a severe cap situation to be labeled "cap jail" (thanks to intelligent moves by Beane during his tenure here) does not mean "cap jail" does not exist.  Plenty of teams have experienced it and suffered consequences as a result over the years.  

 

 

[JoPoy88]

On 2/22/2023 at 1:23 PM, 78thealltimegreat said:

One thing I can see happening in the next CBA is teams similar to what the NBA has getting the Larry Bird exemption deal where they can place say 3 or 4 players as cornerstone franchise pieces and those players they can pay more then anyone else and it won’t have difference in the teams cap structure or something like it as salaries keep getting out of hand for QBs 

Will never happen. But it’s fun to play make believe!

[78thealltimegreat]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Just because Buffalo is not in a severe cap situation to be labeled "cap jail" (thanks to intelligent moves by Beane during his tenure here) does not mean "cap jail" does not exist.  Plenty of teams have experienced it and suffered consequences as a result over the years.  

 

 

The only untouchable player on this roster wears number 17. Everyone can be cut or restructured.
There is never cap jail even when the Bills lose players to free agency they simply get comp picks in the draft. The Baltimore Ravens and Cowboys have been doing it for years and are just as close to a Super Bowl as the Bills. 

[Thurman#1]

On 2/23/2023 at 1:39 AM, dave mcbride said:

very good SI piece by Andrew Brandt on "cap jail" nonsense because you had to pay a quarterback

 

 

Well, yeah, I guess you can say that it's "on 'cap jail' nonsense." But he's not saying that cap jail is nonsense if you pay a QB a boatload of money. He's NOT saying that.

 

Here's what he's saying specifically:  "[The myth] is this: NFL teams paying market contracts for top quarterbacks either cannot, or have a very hard time trying to build a Super Bowl–contending team. My unequivocal answer to this is: wrong!"

 

So, he's not saying there's no such thing as getting in cap jail from from paying a huge QB contract. Many here seem to want to pretend that's what's being said. The headline for this thread seems to say that, and that's NOT what Brandt is saying.

 

He's just saying that it's very possible to field a championship-competitive team while paying a huge QB contract. That should already be obvious, what with most Super Bowl-winning teams recently being among the group that has given a big QB contract to a top ten QB.

 

However you can also find teams that paid top ten QBs big contracts and ended up being screwed by resulting harmful cap consequences. The Rams, most recently.

 

In the article, Brandt says, "Paying a top quarterback (cash) is not the issue; dealing with the leftover (cap) accounting in the future is much more the problem."

 

Well, yeah. There is a problem. That problem can to some extent be pushed on down the road, but not forever.

[Thurman#1]

On 2/23/2023 at 11:59 AM, newcam2012 said:

This is 100% on point. 

 

Go back to the 13 second disaster. We fans never got a full explanation of what happened. Arguably, one of the worst beats in team history and it got swept under the rug.

 

The media treated the coaching staff with kid gloves. McD dodged every question. Fraizer was left off scott free. 

 

Most fans have moved on and accept the blunder as a one off. Using examples of other coaches who blew it. Total BS. 

 

Now, fast forward one year later and Cinci buries the Bills in their own building. 

 

Again, no accountability. Excuses of injuries, crazy season, Damar, etc...BS again! The team wasn't ready to play. The coaches had terrible game plans. Learned nothing from their rehearsal in Cinci weeks prior. 

 

Let's not kid ourselves either. Coach McD took over during that 13 second span. There's no way he didn't. 

 

This team will not advance far in the playoffs with McD, Fraizer, and Dorsey leading the way. 

 

The time is now for change! Good guy McD has to go. Fraizer just plan sucks when it counts. Horrific decision to keep him on. Dorsey is a young baby learning and hurting the Bills chances in win it all mode. 

Beane sold us manure in his press conference. 

 

Allen and Diggs can feel it slipping away. Why can't the fans? 

 

 

 

This is utter nonsense.

 

We certainly got a full explanation of what happened. We didn't get it from the coaching staff, but we got it from Levi Wallace.

 

And anyone who tells you that every coaching staff (or corporate leadership team) always give full explanations of major problems is as full of crap as a sewage barge on the way out.

 

There's plenty of accountability here. The fans just aren't privy to it in this (and many many many cases on other teams and companies) particular instance.

 

We aren't kidding ourselves about Coach McD taking over during 13 seconds. You are.

 

We don't know. Again, pretending you do know only means your stance again resembles the sewage barge.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

On 2/23/2023 at 3:18 PM, newcam2012 said:

 

Any reasonable football fan can see the Chiefs and Cinci are far better teams than the Bills.

 

Other teams like Miami, Jets, LA, and the Jags are right there maybe better. This Bills team is likely descending than ascending.

 

It's a good to very good team that's just not good enough to proceed to the Super Bowl. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost the division and failed to make the playoffs.

 

 

And yet more absolute utter dopiness and wrongness from you.

 

Vegas has the Bills with the second-best odds to win next year. Well above the Bengals. None of the Miami, Jets, LA and the Jags that you claim are "right there maybe better" are even close. The highest is the Jets at +2500.

 

There is a reason to think that the Bills are more likely descending than ascending, that reason being that you're a miserable sad whiner, about to break out into "Waaaaaaaah. Waaaaaaaaah."

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Thurman#1

[newcam2012]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

And yet more absolute utter dopiness and wrongness from you.

 

Vegas has the Bills with the second-best odds to win next year. Well above the Bengals. None of the Miami, Jets, LA and the Jags that you claim are "right there maybe better" are even close. The highest is the Jets at +2500.

 

There is a reason to think that the Bills are more likely descending than ascending, that reason being that you're a miserable sad whiner, about to break out into "Waaaaaaaah. Waaaaaaaaah."

 

 

 

 

 

 

How did Vegas do on the Bills winning the Super Bowl last year? 

 

Take your homer glasses off and look at reality. 

 

No way this coaching staff leads the team to a Super Bowl. They continue to fall short yet you continue to believe the unlikely. 

 

The team has several holes that have been exposed especially in the playoffs. The last three years are plenty of proof that this coaching staff doesn't have what it takes.

 

Maybe rewatch the Miami and Cinci playoff games. 

 

Take a look at the infamous 13 seconds. 

 

Why in the world world you have a mortal of confidence they can get it down. 

 

Rule of thumb is the games won on the trenches. You agree? Take a serious look at the Bills line. The Oline has been a major issue for years. 

 

Fact is its clear the Dolphins and the Jets have closed the gap. Anyone who thinks otherwise is clearly in denial. Is that you?

 

 

 

 

[newcam2012]

26 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

This is utter nonsense.

 

We certainly got a full explanation of what happened. We didn't get it from the coaching staff, but we got it from Levi Wallace.

 

And anyone who tells you that every coaching staff (or corporate leadership team) always give full explanations of major problems is as full of crap as a sewage barge on the way out.

 

There's plenty of accountability here. The fans just aren't privy to it in this (and many many many cases on other teams and companies) particular instance.

 

We aren't kidding ourselves about Coach McD taking over during 13 seconds. You are.

 

We don't know. Again, pretending you do know only means your stance again resembles the sewage barge.

 

 

It's about probability and likelihood. No way a competent head coach doesn't take charge there. Got your head out of your butt! It's like saying OJ didn't do it. 

 

Stop embarrassing yourself with outlandish claims. 

 

A CEO of a company would have been fired immediately after such a blunder. Shareholders would have demanded a vote to terminate. Stop telling yourself fibs...

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

It's about probability and likelihood. No way a competent head coach doesn't take charge there. Got your head out of your butt! It's like saying OJ didn't do it. 

 

Stop embarrassing yourself with outlandish claims. 

 

A CEO of a company would have been fired immediately after such a blunder. Shareholders would have demanded a vote to terminate. Stop telling yourself fibs...

 

 

How do you so consistently miss the point?

 

Yeah, a competent head coach takes charge there. 

 

McDermott did.

 

The fact that he did it in a way that you don't happen to like is far beside the point.

 

And the idea that a CEO would have been fired after a season like the 2021 Bills had is simply butt-stupid.

[Thurman#1]

On 2/23/2023 at 12:29 PM, PBF81 said:

 

Maybe.  LOL  

 

What we do know is that rest of the team by itself can't play on two without Allen.  

 

 

Yeah, fair enough.

 

Same is true of Mahomes and the Chiefs, of course. Any really good QB really. 

 

 

47 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

How did Vegas do on the Bills winning the Super Bowl last year? 

 

Take your homer glasses off and look at reality. 

 

No way this coaching staff leads the team to a Super Bowl. They continue to fall short yet you continue to believe the unlikely. 

 

The team has several holes that have been exposed especially in the playoffs. The last three years are plenty of proof that this coaching staff doesn't have what it takes.

 

Maybe rewatch the Miami and Cinci playoff games. 

 

Take a look at the infamous 13 seconds. 

 

Why in the world world you have a mortal of confidence they can get it down. 

 

Rule of thumb is the games won on the trenches. You agree? Take a serious look at the Bills line. The Oline has been a major issue for years. 

 

Fact is its clear the Dolphins and the Jets have closed the gap. Anyone who thinks otherwise is clearly in denial. Is that you?

 

 

 

 

 

 

My God, you're some kind of savant on missing the point. 

 

Vegas doesn't pretend to tell the future. Grading them on whether they hit in hindsight is completely misunderstanding what they do.

 

They're about making strong guesses about the future and ranking likelihoods. Most particularly in predicting how the masses of people will bet. They're sensational at it. 

 

And again, anyone who thinks that a team doesn't have a chance to go all the way just because they had problems in the playoffs for a year or two simply doesn't understand how the world works. Some teams win their first time. Others take some time. Saints, Steelers, Giants, Colts, Ravens, and on and on and on.

 

You said "Any reasonable football fan can see the Chiefs and Cinci are far better teams than the Bills." That Vegas line tells you that you're absolutely wrong on that. Fans are betting on the Bills over everyone but the Chiefs next year. You're far more of a miserabilist than the huge majority of fans.

 

Fans has confidence they get it done. The reason simply being that that's the likelihood, that they have a good chance to get it done. Far higher than your befuddled suggestions of the Jets and the others.

 

As for your last sentence there, what you're claiming is a fact is - in fact - an opinion. And not an especially bright one.

 

Edited February 24, 2023 by Thurman#1