very good SI piece by Andrew Brandt on "cap jail" nonsense because you had to pay a quarterback

[Alphadawg7]

29 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Beane missed his window to capitalize on vastly improving the team. His misses were and are huge. Both sides of the lines are not good enough. Other weakmesses exist too. The time to do it was while Allen was on his rookie contract. 

 

My initial thought is the Bills aren't as good as Cinci amd KC. I don't think they can make up the ground now. Beane's hand is exposed. His presser was a huge bluff to the fans. Are you calling him or.folding?

 

I dont think its that dire, but I do think this is a critical offseason.  We still have a very good roster, but I am more concerned with 2 coordinators.  They are not being improved upon, and I just lack confidence in both of them.  Dorsey at least has potential to improve, Frazier I fear is just always going to have the wrong approach in the playoffs when we face teams like KC and Cincy.  

53 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

I would be more worried about the Bengals if Burrow and Chase were already signed to extensions and they still had that cap space 

 

But thats just it...you are talking "extensions"...those don't affect the cap until after their current deals expire.  So doesn't matter if they hand them a truck of money this year, Burrow still has a year left and a 5th year option left on his deal, and Chase has 2 years and a 5th year option left.  They have the flexibility to push their cap hits out 2 and 3 years from now if they want.

[PBF81]

18 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

... Frazier I fear is just always going to have the wrong approach in the playoffs when we face teams like KC and Cincy.  

 

Wrong approach?  LOL  

 

What "approach" is it to leave Hill and Kelce Wide f'n Open for them to get all the yards they need in a matter of seconds.  We won't even mention the "approach" for the prior Kickoff.  I mean honestly, one shouldn't have to be a DC for even a month to understand that that's the one thing that you DO NOT WANT TO DO.  

 

Same in the Cinci game, let's leave all of our DBs and coverage guys 10-15 yards off the LoS on key 3rd-downs.  

 

I mean really, what defense is there for coaching like that?  What defense is there for not doing something about it as the Head Coach.  That's why I think that McD has much more say in "Frasier's D" than we think.  

 

They lost me after preaching accountability, but when it comes to them, then all of a sudden there is no accountability.   That's hypocrisy and that doesn't sit well with me.  They can go fool some other people, not me.  

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by PBF81

[Mango]

3 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Somewhat true of KC but let's not take anything away from what they did. They still went out and beat a Cinci team that thrashed the Bills. Not to mention Cinci had their way with them in previous meetings. Not to mention they beat a better Eagle team.

 

In short, quality organizations with quality coaches and quality players know how to win. That's KC from top to bottom.

 

Compare that to a Bills team.

Veach huge edge over Beane.

Reid huge edge over McD.

Spags huge edge over Fraizer.

Bienemy edge over Dorsey. Get the picture? 

 

There is talk about being too harsh on Beane. Perhaps too harsh on the coaches as well. I totally get that if you have standards to the losing ways of the past. Totally understand if you are satisfied with multiple playoff appearances. 

 

At some point, the playoff appearances need to be Super Bowl appearances. Wouldn't you agree? The Bills have absolutely squandered the last two years! There's no other way to say it or see it. Enough with the excuses and the kid gloves.

 

This organization has failed with greatness to meet its goals. It's all good though. Let's run it back again this year. What's the likely result? What a farce. One can clearly see teams are right on the backs of the Bills. Two just so happen to be in the division. Two other teams have made clear jumps past the Bills. The writing is on the wall. I'd argue that Diggs and even Allen can feel it slipping away. Their comments and attitude indicates frustration and unhappiness. That comes from disappointment and losing. 

 

The Bills brass has obviously blundered in protecting Allen and giving him weapons. Coaching and scheme is also an issue. Maybe under Dabol we have seen the best version of Allen? Dorsey certainly didn't get the best out of him? In fact, I'd agrue the opposite. 

 

Hold onto to your seat. The upcoming season is likely a bumpy road with a whole less success. 

I think less success is relative. My guess is 10 or 11 wins with a bit of drama and dysfunction. 

[PBF81]

12 minutes ago, BUFFALOBART said:

Edmunds had a good year.

$20M good?

I don't think so.

 

Agreed, and he was too on/off for that kind of money.  

 

Having said that I do believe that he is a fish out of water and that he will thrive in a system that understands how he's best utilized.  Since that's not us his departure is best for both sides.  

 

The problem is that who do we have at LB after that that's starter quality?   Answer:  Milano  

 

LOL, how on earth are we going to correct that along with addressing our OL, WR, RB, DB, some kind of pass-rusher, etc. in one offseason.  Short answer:  we're not.  

I guess we'll change to a 5-1-5

4 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think less success is relative. My guess is 10 or 11 wins with a bit of drama and dysfunction. 

 

While unimaginable this season, I can see us going 2-4 in the division.  Philly, Cinci, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants are all problematic games for us at this point.  

 

Carr might be what makes the Jets better than us, even with Allen we only averaged 18.5 PPG against them this season.  If they get any kind of offense I can see them taking two from us.  Miami's already competitive, once with Thompson.  Not good.  

[newcam2012]

26 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think less success is relative. My guess is 10 or 11 wins with a bit of drama and dysfunction. 

That's not unrealistic. 

[newcam2012]

This is 100% on point. 

 

Go back to the 13 second disaster. We fans never got a full explanation of what happened. Arguably, one of the worst beats in team history and it got swept under the rug.

 

The media treated the coaching staff with kid gloves. McD dodged every question. Fraizer was left off scott free. 

 

Most fans have moved on and accept the blunder as a one off. Using examples of other coaches who blew it. Total BS. 

 

Now, fast forward one year later and Cinci buries the Bills in their own building. 

 

Again, no accountability. Excuses of injuries, crazy season, Damar, etc...BS again! The team wasn't ready to play. The coaches had terrible game plans. Learned nothing from their rehearsal in Cinci weeks prior. 

 

Let's not kid ourselves either. Coach McD took over during that 13 second span. There's no way he didn't. 

 

This team will not advance far in the playoffs with McD, Fraizer, and Dorsey leading the way. 

 

The time is now for change! Good guy McD has to go. Fraizer just plan sucks when it counts. Horrific decision to keep him on. Dorsey is a young baby learning and hurting the Bills chances in win it all mode. 

Beane sold us manure in his press conference. 

 

Allen and Diggs can feel it slipping away. Why can't the fans? 

[Mango]

37 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agreed, and he was too on/off for that kind of money.  

 

Having said that I do believe that he is a fish out of water and that he will thrive in a system that understands how he's best utilized.  Since that's not us his departure is best for both sides.  

 

The problem is that who do we have at LB after that that's starter quality?   Answer:  Milano  

 

LOL, how on earth are we going to correct that along with addressing our OL, WR, RB, DB, some kind of pass-rusher, etc. in one offseason.  Short answer:  we're not.  

I guess we'll change to a 5-1-5

 

While unimaginable this season, I can see us going 2-4 in the division.  Philly, Cinci, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants are all problematic games for us at this point.  

 

Carr might be what makes the Jets better than us, even with Allen we only averaged 18.5 PPG against them this season.  If they get any kind of offense I can see them taking two from us.  Miami's already competitive, once with Thompson.  Not good.  

Not unimaginable. We almost lost the second game to Miami too. That puts us at 3-3/ 12 wins. KC, 11. CIN 10.

 

I am unwilling at the moment to start flirting with the .500 mark and hope that the Bills find a way against the NFCE and the rest of their opponents.

 

I guess I’ll mark them down with 2 Division Wins vs the Pats per you above. 
 

Pats

Pats

LV

WAS

DEN

TB

JAX

NYG (I think they win this game)

DAL (I don’t get the hype)

 

Steal a game somewhere. 10 wins. 

 

[newcam2012]

45 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agreed, and he was too on/off for that kind of money.  

 

Having said that I do believe that he is a fish out of water and that he will thrive in a system that understands how he's best utilized.  Since that's not us his departure is best for both sides.  

 

The problem is that who do we have at LB after that that's starter quality?   Answer:  Milano  

 

LOL, how on earth are we going to correct that along with addressing our OL, WR, RB, DB, some kind of pass-rusher, etc. in one offseason.  Short answer:  we're not.  

I guess we'll change to a 5-1-5

 

While unimaginable this season, I can see us going 2-4 in the division.  Philly, Cinci, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants are all problematic games for us at this point.  

 

Carr might be what makes the Jets better than us, even with Allen we only averaged 18.5 PPG against them this season.  If they get any kind of offense I can see them taking two from us.  Miami's already competitive, once with Thompson.  Not good.  

I can definetly see the Bills missing the playoffs. 

[PBF81]

18 minutes ago, Mango said:

Not unimaginable. We almost lost the second game to Miami too. That puts us at 3-3/ 12 wins. KC, 11. CIN 10.

 

I am unwilling at the moment to start flirting with the .500 mark and hope that the Bills find a way against the NFCE and the rest of their opponents.

 

I guess I’ll mark them down with 2 Division Wins vs the Pats per you above. 
 

Pats

Pats

LV

WAS

DEN

TB

JAX

NYG (I think they win this game)

DAL (I don’t get the hype)

 

Steal a game somewhere. 10 wins. 

 

 

I can see anything happening next season.  I can see us going 8-9 with some bad luck, I can see us going 13-4 again.  If Allen were to go down wins would become few and far between with the team and coaching the way it is.  If he were to go out in the preseason my guess for record would be 6-11.  We're entirely non-competitive without him.  He is the team.  

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by PBF81

[newcam2012]

18 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I can see anything happening next season.  I can see us going 8-9 with some bad luck, I can see us going 13-4 again.  If Allen were to go down wins would become few and far between with the team and coaching the way it is.  If he were to go out in the preseason my guess for record would be 6-11.  We're entirely non-competitive without him.  He is the team.  

 

 

Maybe Allen can play on one leg and win too? 

[PBF81]

Just now, newcam2012 said:

Maybe Allen can play on one leg and win too? 

 

Maybe.  LOL  

 

What we do know is that rest of the team by itself can't play on two without Allen.  

[The Firebaugh Kid]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Could not agree more. Mitch Morse has been decent, but was slightly overpaid his first deal here (compared to his peers at the time). Beas and Brown were good value. He just got a good year out of Daquan Jones and he got a good (cheap) year out of Williams (the right tackle) and Quinton Spain (then they paid him, fell out with him and cut him in the space of 4 months). 

 

You put that against overpaying Trent Murphy, Tyler Kroft, OJ Howard (who we paid not to play), Vontae Davis (same again), Jordan Phillips (this season), Josh Norman, Vernon Butler, Mario Addison, Emmanuel Sanders, Quinton Jefferson, Star Lotulelei.... 

Sanders was very missed this year 

[Dopey]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

He is very good at working the numbers. 

 

He is just not good at selecting free agents or drafting. 

3 straight AFCE titles and 4 playoff wins in those 3 years. He’s doing something right. And it’s not just the numbers. 
 

[Utah John]

If the cap is not a real cap, then all the talk about being over the cap is just a way to negotiate with players?  "Sorry, Jordan, we realize you want your big payday, but we're gazillions over the cap.  The fact that you're starting to get hurt a lot, just like most players your age who are ready to slide down the hill, never crossed our minds.  Gosh, we're sorry."

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Dopey said:

3 straight AFCE titles and 4 playoff wins in those 3 years. He’s doing something right. And it’s not just the numbers. 
 

Not claiming he hasn't done good things. I absolutely give credit to Beane and McD for building a winning franchise. 

 

However, they have woefully fallen short in progressing the team further. That's my major issue, complaint, and concern. 

 

The last two years the Bills were primed to make at least a Super Bowl appearance and arguably win it all. The organization and team failed miserably. Coaches were clearly out coached and out planned and out maneuvered. Players failed to step up and execute. Allen had very little support. 

 

Any reasonable football fan can see the Chiefs and Cinci are far better teams than the Bills.

 

Other teams like Miami, Jets, LA, and the Jags are right there maybe better. This Bills team is likely descending than ascending.

 

It's a good to very good team that's just not good enough to proceed to the Super Bowl. It wouldn't surprise me at all if they lost the division and failed to make the playoffs.

 

I still lean on giving the division edge to the Bills purely because of Allen. He's just that dynamic and good. Likely make the playoffs if he stays healthy. 

 

Depends on how you measure success. As for me, 3-5 years ago. It was such a pleasure to see them winning in the regular season. Win the division. Great to see them advance to the playoffs. 

 

However, at some point the goalposts have moved or should have moved. The last two years weren't just about making the playoffs. It was about going to the Super Bowl and  winning it all.  

 

Fast forward to the state of the team now. It has holes or weaknesses throughout the roster in various areas. We know what they are. No way in heck can they all be adequately be addressed. Let's not even get into the injuries the team will suffer next year. They will have injuries. 

 

Hope that helps you see things in a different light. 

Edited February 23, 2023 by newcam2012

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Phillips played to his late 3rd round draft status.  Remember, he was never a pass-rushing prospect.  He was more of a gap-filling DT, which he did decently.  Was he an impact player?  No, but at the tail end of the 3rd round that isn't expected.  

 

I'd say he's played better at DT than his offensive counterpart Spencer Brown has at OT and both were drafted within a couple of picks of the same draft spot.  I'd be pretty happy if we could get the same level of play out of Brown at the RT spot.  

 

 

We are on about Jordan. Not Harrison.

[Richard Noggin]

5 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agreed, and he was too on/off for that kind of money.  

 

Having said that I do believe that he is a fish out of water and that he will thrive in a system that understands how he's best utilized.  Since that's not us his departure is best for both sides.  

 

The problem is that who do we have at LB after that that's starter quality?   Answer:  Milano  

 

LOL, how on earth are we going to correct that along with addressing our OL, WR, RB, DB, some kind of pass-rusher, etc. in one offseason.  Short answer:  we're not.  

I guess we'll change to a 5-1-5

 

While unimaginable this season, I can see us going 2-4 in the division.  Philly, Cinci, Chiefs, Cowboys, Giants are all problematic games for us at this point.  

 

Carr might be what makes the Jets better than us, even with Allen we only averaged 18.5 PPG against them this season.  If they get any kind of offense I can see them taking two from us.  Miami's already competitive, once with Thompson.  Not good.  

 

You're kinda jumping the shark with the bolded part. Suddenly Edmunds is some victim of poor coaching/utilization? While Milano is simultaneously an example of positional success under the same regime?  

[GunnerBill]

There is absolutely no way I see the Bills missing the playoffs unless Josh misses time. I put the chance at like 0.1%. 

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

But thats just it...you are talking "extensions"...those don't affect the cap until after their current deals expire.  So doesn't matter if they hand them a truck of money this year, Burrow still has a year left and a 5th year option left on his deal, and Chase has 2 years and a 5th year option left.  They have the flexibility to push their cap hits out 2 and 3 years from now if they want.

 

But Cincy are one of those teams without rich owners. It is going to be harder for them to pony up a whole heap of cash up front in pro-rated bonuses for Burrow and Chase to manage cap hits. I wouldn't be surprised if both of those cap numbers get quite big quite quickly. They have less flexibility because they lack deep pockets. 

[machine gun kelly]

9 hours ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

People thought I was crazy when I said Daniel Jones was asking for 45 mill not so crazy anymore. Once the major markets have franchise QBs they have to pay there will quickly become a movement that qb in particular will become a salary exception where it can only count so much against the cap

78, the owners don’t care.  It’s all about profit, and only profit.  I understand working for a large corporation in the past.

[Magox]

Of course the cap matters.  These aren't fake numbers, the cap maneuvering is just a way to kick the can down the road, but at the end at some point there is a reckoning.

 

Also, this whole Lamar Jackson debate with some analysts who say "Just pay the man".   "Do it at whatever cost", these sort of proclamations and analysis is lazy.

Yes, I agree that you should do everything within reason to keep him or any other young franchise QB but it's not at "any cost".   Fully guaranteeing his contract means there is very little cap maneuvering - you have less flexibility to help the team out in the interim, not to mention Lamar has been very injury prone the past couple seasons and lets face it, Lamar without his running ability is a middling QB.  

 

Where the Ravens went wrong was not signing Lamar up to a long-term deal after his third year, now they are paying the price of the Deshaun Watson fully guaranteed debacle.  My guess is that after the Hurts, Burrow and Herbert contracts which I would imagine will go back to not fully guaranteed contracts will bring the QB market back to where it was, probably with a little more guaranteed money pre Watson.

 

I bring up Lamar because I was listening to Brandt yesterday on NFL Sirius and he was expressing frustration with the Ravens for not getting the deal done.