very good SI piece by Andrew Brandt on "cap jail" nonsense because you had to pay a quarterback

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

2 hours ago, 1st&ten said:

What about those expensive mouth guards ?

That they don’t even wear all the time!

 

Diggs you intermittent mouth guard wearer! I’m looking at you

[Mango]

3 minutes ago, Success said:

 

It's worrisome that KC has so much cap going for them.  

 

That said - I'd also say they overachieved this year.  I didn't think they were as good as previous years, despite the end result.  They did the classic "get hot at the right time" thing, and they also benefitted more than Cincy or Buffalo from the forfeit-game fallout.  Both Cincy and Buffalo beat them during the season. 

 

It just seemed to fall there way at the end there, and I felt like they were a little lucky to get by both the Jags and Cincy, and also Philly in the end (but luck is also a huge part of winning a title).

 

This was supposed to be a reset year for the Chiefs and they won the whole thing. 
 

It is a huge part of my frustration with the state of the Bills roster at the moment. In a lot of years I would be much higher on the Bills than I am now. We’ve lost a lot of distance on KC at the moment. The conference runs through Arrowhead at the moment. 
 

It didn’t have to be that way.

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Phillips was a good contributor? What? In week 1? What about the other 17 weeks? Waste of money.

 

 

That is the only thing you took away from that post?  Lol...I didn't say he was a focal point, but he was part of the DL rotation backing up Oliver.  And honestly, what does it matter, you are complaining about a guy who was brought back on a 1 year deal as the #4 DT behind Oliver, Jones, and Settle whose primary role would be to backup Oliver specifically.  It literally had no impact on the cap preventing us from signing or retaining any other players last year or this offseason.  

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That is the only thing you took away from that post?  Lol...I didn't say he was a focal point, but he was part of the DL rotation backing up Oliver.  And honestly, what does it matter, you are complaining about a guy who was brought back on a 1 year deal as the #4 DT behind Oliver, Jones, and Settle whose primary role would be to backup Oliver specifically.  It literally had no impact on the cap preventing us from signing or retaining any other players last year or this offseason.  

 

Not true. I said then, before the season, that giving out three decent DT deals to Jones, Phillips and Settle rather than adding another OL or outside receiver depth was a mistake and so it proved. 

 

I took that out of the post because the other guys you mentioned - Morse, Beas, Brown and Williams I had already included (with Quinton Spain) in my list of successes. I suppose you could add vet minimum Shaq to that list too. But it is still outdone by the overpays and failures.

[CheshireCT]

35 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think you are being a bit overly harsh here.  All teams sign guys like these.  And many of these guys were the early days where Beane was both a new GM and in the midst of having to clean up a mess of a roster and cap use by his predecessor.  And many of these were short term or 1 year deals with no future cap ramifications brought in to help field a competitive team without creating cap issues that would prevent the team from improving in the subsequent years.  

 

Not to mention, several played key roles in high ranked offenses and defenses that helped us win our division, reach the playoffs, and win playoff games.  Guys like Morse, Sanders, Beas, Brown, Williams all started or played key roles in our offense that has been amongst the highest scoring in the league the past 3 seasons.  Guys like Addision and Star were starters on a defense that was ranked #1 in the NFL their last year here, and Phillips was good contributor for us this year on a defense than ranked #2 in the NFL despite the crazy slew of injuries to the defense.  

 

Is every signing a home run, absolutely not, but no GM has a perfect record.  But Beane has a better track record than most.  

 

I would also add, Beane has also done a good job moving on from players. Most of those short deals weren't extended, and he knew to let Lawson and Philips go when they were overvalued. This year is a bit more difficult with Edmunds and Poyer.

[Alphadawg7]

18 minutes ago, Mango said:

Great post. I came to say the same. 
 

New Orleans proved you can navigate huge amounts of negative cap space. But they also proved that the Bill will eventually come due over the course of one or multiple seasons. 
 

Ultimately the Bills have to make some moves that may make the roster worse and in 2024 KC has $85M more cap dollars than the Buffalo Bills. And no matter how much they try, they won’t be able to outspend that difference between them next off season. 

 

And don't forget, this year Cincy has a ton of cap space too to try and improve further and potentially widen the gap they established by looking like the better team in partial game and playoff game we played them this year.  

 

It is why I have said this is IMHO the most important offseason for Beane during the Allen era.  We are going to need him to make good decisions during free agency and also a strong draft if we want to stay ahead of all the teams in our own division and keep pace with KC and Cincy.  

[newcam2012]

35 minutes ago, Success said:

 

It's worrisome that KC has so much cap going for them.  

 

That said - I'd also say they overachieved this year.  I didn't think they were as good as previous years, despite the end result.  They did the classic "get hot at the right time" thing, and they also benefitted more than Cincy or Buffalo from the forfeit-game fallout.  Both Cincy and Buffalo beat them during the season. 

 

It just seemed to fall there way at the end there, and I felt like they were a little lucky to get by both the Jags and Cincy, and also Philly in the end (but luck is also a huge part of winning a title).

 

Somewhat true of KC but let's not take anything away from what they did. They still went out and beat a Cinci team that thrashed the Bills. Not to mention Cinci had their way with them in previous meetings. Not to mention they beat a better Eagle team.

 

In short, quality organizations with quality coaches and quality players know how to win. That's KC from top to bottom.

 

Compare that to a Bills team.

Veach huge edge over Beane.

Reid huge edge over McD.

Spags huge edge over Fraizer.

Bienemy edge over Dorsey. Get the picture? 

 

There is talk about being too harsh on Beane. Perhaps too harsh on the coaches as well. I totally get that if you have standards to the losing ways of the past. Totally understand if you are satisfied with multiple playoff appearances. 

 

At some point, the playoff appearances need to be Super Bowl appearances. Wouldn't you agree? The Bills have absolutely squandered the last two years! There's no other way to say it or see it. Enough with the excuses and the kid gloves.

 

This organization has failed with greatness to meet its goals. It's all good though. Let's run it back again this year. What's the likely result? What a farce. One can clearly see teams are right on the backs of the Bills. Two just so happen to be in the division. Two other teams have made clear jumps past the Bills. The writing is on the wall. I'd argue that Diggs and even Allen can feel it slipping away. Their comments and attitude indicates frustration and unhappiness. That comes from disappointment and losing. 

 

The Bills brass has obviously blundered in protecting Allen and giving him weapons. Coaching and scheme is also an issue. Maybe under Dabol we have seen the best version of Allen? Dorsey certainly didn't get the best out of him? In fact, I'd agrue the opposite. 

 

Hold onto to your seat. The upcoming season is likely a bumpy road with a whole less success. 

Edited February 22, 2023 by newcam2012

[Marcus Aurelius]

6 hours ago, Augie said:

So, cap jail is kind of like Otis in Mayberry? You can just grab the key and let yourself out? 

Well I'll be a dirty bird (my mother used to say that) ... I forgot about this character! 😄

 

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

If you have a rich owner who is willing to spend cash now for cap relief and you have good cap management (and to be fair I think Overdorf though heavily criticised in the Ralph days has always been a good cap manager) then you can retain a lot of flexibility with your roster even when you are paying a franchise QB and a lot of guys. 

 

You implicitly raise a great point, albeit perhaps unwittingly.  IMO the overall teams of that "Last 20 Years" period often had better talent than we had.  We simply struggled to find a QB that was better than average.  If we had had Allen on many of those teams we'd have done better overall than we are now.  I even think that some of those coaches were better gameday/on-field coaches.  

 

It is easy to underestimate the impact that Allen has had here.  There's no doubt in my mind that had we had Allen in some of those seasons we'd have made the playoffs easily and likely even won the division over a Brady-led Pats too.  

 

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

.......Nsekhe, Klein, Saffold.......all guys who somehow got $6M aav or more as well.

 

It's really a combination of big wastes AND a high volume of nickel and dime mistakes that added up on the pro side.

 

Even things like the $15M they wasted trading for Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Coleman(for a 2 week tryout) was real cap space that would go a long way toward getting the Bills back to the cap today.  

 

The Bills pro personnel department has been pretty ineffective under Beane.

 

Lotulolei cost us over $30M for the three years he played here, and not including 2020 when he sat out.  Talk about a waste.  

 

That Carolina connection for the players we've stripped from them hasn't worked out well at all.  Lotulolei, Benjamin, Addison, Jones, Obada, Butler.  

 

Them going there and so constantly coming up empty is troubling.  It's as if they're completely afraid to step out of their comfort zones which is the way that they stock the team, with a ridiculous overemphasis on Defense in both the Drafts and Free Agency.  It wouldn't be so bad if some of their DE pass-rush draft choices would turn into an impact player.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think you are being a bit overly harsh here.  All teams sign guys like these.  And many of these guys were the early days where Beane was both a new GM and in the midst of having to clean up a mess of a roster and cap use by his predecessor.  And many of these were short term or 1 year deals with no future cap ramifications brought in to help field a competitive team without creating cap issues that would prevent the team from improving in the subsequent years.  

 

Not to mention, several played key roles in high ranked offenses and defenses that helped us win our division, reach the playoffs, and win playoff games.  Guys like Morse, Sanders, Beas, Brown, Williams all started or played key roles in our offense that has been amongst the highest scoring in the league the past 3 seasons.  Guys like Addision and Star were starters on a defense that was ranked #1 in the NFL their last year here, and Phillips was good contributor for us this year on a defense than ranked #2 in the NFL despite the crazy slew of injuries to the defense.  

 

Is every signing a home run, absolutely not, but no GM has a perfect record.  But Beane has a better track record than most.  

 

To what extent does that have to do with Allen however?  How would this team be doing with QBs like Taylor, Fitzpatrick, Orton, Bledsoe (LOL, in particular with his brick feet), etc.  I don't think even average by our standards back then.  

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

Phillips was a good contributor? What? In week 1? What about the other 17 weeks? Waste of money.

 

Phillips played to his late 3rd round draft status.  Remember, he was never a pass-rushing prospect.  He was more of a gap-filling DT, which he did decently.  Was he an impact player?  No, but at the tail end of the 3rd round that isn't expected.  

 

I'd say he's played better at DT than his offensive counterpart Spencer Brown has at OT and both were drafted within a couple of picks of the same draft spot.  I'd be pretty happy if we could get the same level of play out of Brown at the RT spot.  

1 hour ago, Success said:

It's worrisome that KC has so much cap going for them.  

 

That said - I'd also say they overachieved this year.  I didn't think they were as good as previous years, despite the end result.  They did the classic "get hot at the right time" thing, and they also benefitted more than Cincy or Buffalo from the forfeit-game fallout.  Both Cincy and Buffalo beat them during the season. 

 

It just seemed to fall there way at the end there, and I felt like they were a little lucky to get by both the Jags and Cincy, and also Philly in the end (but luck is also a huge part of winning a title).

 

The Rams overachieved last season, '21 , also. 

 

I wouldn't mind seeing us overachieve in the playoffs one of these seasons.  By hook or by crook I'd take a Championship! 

 

 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

It is why I have said this is IMHO the most important offseason for Beane during the Allen era.  We are going to need him to make good decisions during free agency and also a strong draft if we want to stay ahead of all the teams in our own division and keep pace with KC and Cincy.  

 

I couldn't agree more, particularly with the Jets and Fins making a monumental leap this past season.  Miami nearly beat us all three times, and did once although that was a bogus game.  Still, the combined point differential in all three games was +4 for us.  We split with the Jets, and neither team has the QB that we have.  

 

It'll be critical for us to win the division this next season too.  Going into the playoffs as a wild-card wouldn't be good.  I don't envision any scenario in which we miss the playoffs as long as Allen stays healthy.  Having said that, if Allen were to get hurt in the preseason I wouldn't bet a rusty penny that we have a winning record.  

 

We'll see what happens, but if this Draft is like his past ones I'm concerned.  Apparently we won't do much in Free Agency according to Beane.  

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

2 years.......$14.5M......$7.7M gtd.

 

Beane was paying backups $6M plus and getting patted on the back for it for the most part.

 

I understand that the Bills weren't much of a destination after they gutted the roster of all recent 1st and 2nd round picks in the name of culture and passed on addressing their QB problem in year 1..........but he paid double for everything in subsequent seasons and really struck out big time in pro personnel.     

Beane's strategy has been to dumpster dive for FA vets in the OL.  Still waiting for him to sign a guy who can play longer than a season, besides Morse.

 

I don't hate the strategy, just the results

[PBF81]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Beane's strategy has been to dumpster dive for FA vets in the OL.  Still waiting for him to sign a guy who can play longer than a season, besides Morse.

 

I don't hate the strategy, just the results

 

Wow, talk about an incredibly accurate concise statement!  Very accurately stated! 

[Matt_In_NH]

Saying the Cap is just accounting and saying you can have whatever you want all the time just do some accounting are not the same.  Cap and cash are different…. True but you still have to be smart.   Look at New Orleans spotrac page for the next 5 years and look at all the void money that is “just accounting”.  

[78thealltimegreat]

5 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

 

That will never happen.  All of the other three major sports employs a great deal less players and although they have guaranteed contracts, it’s not a 53 or should I say a 69 man roster including PS.

 

These owners love this cap as it’s a hard edit, and a hard cap.  There are certainly manipulations in Terms of cash over cap, and converting roster to signing bonuses.  The owners don’t want exemptions as that is less profit, and they expend a ton to buy a franchise.  They get incredible tax exemptions, but they also expend a great deal of cash.

People thought I was crazy when I said Daniel Jones was asking for 45 mill not so crazy anymore. Once the major markets have franchise QBs they have to pay there will quickly become a movement that qb in particular will become a salary exception where it can only count so much against the cap

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

You implicitly raise a great point, albeit perhaps unwittingly.  IMO the overall teams of that "Last 20 Years" period often had better talent than we had.  We simply struggled to find a QB that was better than average.  If we had had Allen on many of those teams we'd have done better overall than we are now.  I even think that some of those coaches were better gameday/on-field coaches.  

 

It is easy to underestimate the impact that Allen has had here.  There's no doubt in my mind that had we had Allen in some of those seasons we'd have made the playoffs easily and likely even won the division over a Brady-led Pats too.  

 

 

Allen has been 90% of the team's recent success and playoff streak. Without him the team would likely be a bottom third tier team. 

 

Truthfully, when you analyze the Bills roster it's not overtly good. After Allen and Diggs there's not a lot of meat on the bone offensively. 

 

Defensively it seems like it doesn't matter who's on the field come playoff time. The nice defensive regular season stats go out the window. The teams thrash Fraizer's defense. Pretty consistent theme. Gotta hope the Bills play QB Jones or Jackson. 

[78thealltimegreat]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And don't forget, this year Cincy has a ton of cap space too to try and improve further and potentially widen the gap they established by looking like the better team in partial game and playoff game we played them this year.  

 

It is why I have said this is IMHO the most important offseason for Beane during the Allen era.  We are going to need him to make good decisions during free agency and also a strong draft if we want to stay ahead of all the teams in our own division and keep pace with KC and Cincy.  

I would be more worried about the Bengals if Burrow and Chase were already signed to extensions and they still had that cap space 

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And don't forget, this year Cincy has a ton of cap space too to try and improve further and potentially widen the gap they established by looking like the better team in partial game and playoff game we played them this year.  

 

It is why I have said this is IMHO the most important offseason for Beane during the Allen era.  We are going to need him to make good decisions during free agency and also a strong draft if we want to stay ahead of all the teams in our own division and keep pace with KC and Cincy.  

Beane missed his window to capitalize on vastly improving the team. His misses were and are huge. Both sides of the lines are not good enough. Other weakmesses exist too. The time to do it was while Allen was on his rookie contract. 

 

My initial thought is the Bills aren't as good as Cinci amd KC. I don't think they can make up the ground now. Beane's hand is exposed. His presser was a huge bluff to the fans. Are you calling him or.folding?

[Ya Digg?]

3 hours ago, Success said:

 

I think rankings show that we fall right in the middle in terms of drafting over the past 5 years.  And that's kind of how I see it. 

 

I think evaluating Beane as a drafter also has to take into consideration how slowly we sometimes bring rookies & younger players along.  This coaching staff seems a bit cautious in that regard, at least for me.  I see Elam, Cook and Shakir as all being very quality starters for the Bills next year - and really could have been in '22.  Benford could be also if he makes a successful move to safety.  It doesn't look great - but it also wouldn't shock me a bit if Bernard turned into a very good sub at some point, and special teamer.

 

Other drafts have been more hit or miss, but it's kind of interesting to me that players like Teller, Hodgins and Zay Jones have panned out better elsewhere.

 

 

He was very good until he got hurt.  He was basically playing w/ 1 arm the last half of the season.  

 

The only one who has done anything of note is Teller. Jones went to the Raiders and did absolutely nothing, did nothing for the first part of this season then finally, finally came on towards the end. And I’m sorry, but 300 yards and a couple of touchdowns for Hodgins is nothing. He’s a slower version of Robert Foster in that as soon as the Giants get some talent at WR he will quickly fall down that depth chart