very good SI piece by Andrew Brandt on "cap jail" nonsense because you had to pay a quarterback

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Beane has really struggled to find value in UFA........that is why they are cap strapped.

 

Their drafts have been better than average and he's gotten good value on his own re-signs..........in a league where you can roll over cap the sheer volume of dollars thrown away on bad UFA decisions has put them into creative accounting mode a couple years earlier than they should be.

 

 

 

Could not agree more. Mitch Morse has been decent, but was slightly overpaid his first deal here (compared to his peers at the time). Beas and Brown were good value. He just got a good year out of Daquan Jones and he got a good (cheap) year out of Williams (the right tackle) and Quinton Spain (then they paid him, fell out with him and cut him in the space of 4 months). 

 

You put that against overpaying Trent Murphy, Tyler Kroft, OJ Howard (who we paid not to play), Vontae Davis (same again), Jordan Phillips (this season), Josh Norman, Vernon Butler, Mario Addison, Emmanuel Sanders, Quinton Jefferson, Star Lotulelei.... 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Honestly those saying the cap doesn't matter at all and those saying the cap is a major issue are both incorrect really.  The reality is that it really lands somewhere in the middle and other factors lend to both.

 

Yes, it is true that it is possible for some teams who are tight on cap space or even over the cap can make maneuvers to manipulate their cap space to free up enough to make the moves they want.  However, that does not mean it universally works in every situation, it has no future potential ramifications, or that it is limitless in how much cap space they can magically free up in one offseason. 

 

It is absolutely possible that teams who make these kinds of maneuvers can later find themselves in an unsurmountable cap jail situation.  Does not mean they always will, but cap jail is a real thing that teams and GM's can find themselves in through poor cap management, bad contracts, and poor roster decisions.

 

This is why cap management is an important skill set of a GM despite people falsely believing the cap doesn't matter.  If your GM doesn't manage and maneuver it properly, abuses it, etc..then down the road ramifications can be significant.  Which is why I always laugh at people who think it doesn't matter, because it very much does and its honestly one of the most important parts of the GM's job.  And a GM who is good at cap management can definitely minimize the restrictions of the cap and make it feel less rigid or constricting.  

 

That being said, I have no concerns about us as Beane has been very good at how he has managed the cap, contract structures, player retention, etc where the deals are both good for the players and provide Beane and the team the flexibility to keep a contending roster around Josh Allen.  So if there is a move they want to make, I am confident in Beane's ability to put us in position to do it and also minimize future cap risk.  

 

 

That cap does matter. Anyone saying the cap doesn't matter is wrong. But it is just accounting. You have to be clever at accounting just like real accountants. And just like real accountancy it is easier the more cash you have. 

 

If you have a rich owner who is willing to spend cash now for cap relief and you have good cap management (and to be fair I think Overdorf though heavily criticised in the Ralph days has always been a good cap manager) then you can retain a lot of flexibility with your roster even when you are paying a franchise QB and a lot of guys. 

 

I always look at Tennessee as a team who run a very vanilla cap management methodology and it hurts the team. It cost them AJ Brown. And while the GM carried the can the real responsibility sits with an ownership that isn't willing, or maybe able, to pony up the readies.

[No_Matter_What]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Could not agree more. Mitch Morse has been decent, but was slightly overpaid his first deal here (compared to his peers at the time). Beas and Brown were good value. He just got a good year out of Daquan Jones and he got a good (cheap) year out of Williams (the right tackle) and Quinton Spain (then they paid him, fell out with him and cut him in the space of 4 months). 

 

You put that against overpaying Trent Murphy, Tyler Kroft, OJ Howard (who we paid not to play), Vontae Davis (same again), Jordan Phillips (this season), Josh Norman, Vernon Butler, Mario Addison, Emmanuel Sanders, Quinton Jefferson, Star Lotulelei.... 

Lol knowing your posting history I wonder how could you possibly forgot Saffold

Edited February 22, 2023 by No_Matter_What

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

Lol knowing your posting history I wonder how could you possibly forgot Saffold

 

I have already obliterated the whole sorry episode from my memory clearly hahaha.

[Manther]

3 hours ago, first_and_ten said:

Any cap problems that the Bills have right now comes from overpaying on the defensive side. Look at our D line. All that money put into it and we get nothing come playoff time. Put the money into a better Offensive line and more weapons for our franchise quarterback. Then the Bills will be dangerous come playoff time. Also, in my humble opinion, they need a an upgrade from Frazier. 

Agreed.  The cap is about allocation of money on resources and we have too many high paid players at positions you may or may not pay them at.  Those positions are luxury positions and you have to be choosey with which positions you allocate those resources of cap to.

1 hour ago, ColoradoBills said:

Cap jail or hell or whatever term fans want to use only happens when a team goes way in to win it all.

Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

 

Teams like KC and Buffalo have to let some high dollar players walk.  KC couldn't keep Hill unless they let someone else goes.

Bills have decisions similar to that with Poyer, Edmunds and even a guy like Oliver.  Beane will work through it.

Agreed.  Cap hell or jail is what New Orleans did multiple times.  Not sure what the Rams cap situation will like in the future. 

[Alphadawg7]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That cap does matter. Anyone saying the cap doesn't matter is wrong. But it is just accounting. You have to be clever at accounting just like real accountants. And just like real accountancy it is easier the more cash you have. 

 

If you have a rich owner who is willing to spend cash now for cap relief and you have good cap management (and to be fair I think Overdorf though heavily criticised in the Ralph days has always been a good cap manager) then you can retain a lot of flexibility with your roster even when you are paying a franchise QB and a lot of guys. 

 

I always look at Tennessee as a team who run a very vanilla cap management methodology and it hurts the team. It cost them AJ Brown. And while the GM carried the can the real responsibility sits with an ownership that isn't willing, or maybe able, to pony up the readies.

 

Yeah, this is essentially what I was saying.  And Tennessee is a great example of poor cap management costing them where as I feel like Beane is among the better GM's in the league at being smart about it.  

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yeah, this is essentially what I was saying.  And Tennessee is a great example of poor cap management costing them where as I feel like Beane is among the better GM's in the league at being smart about it.  

 

He is (although the Bills were good at it even when running the opposite model in the cash to cap days tbf, they have good people on that side). But Pegula is part of it too. The problem in Tennessee is ownership is not willing to pay up and it forces them into more of a cash to cap model.

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, Manther said:

Agreed.  Cap hell or jail is what New Orleans did multiple times.  Not sure what the Rams cap situation will like in the future. 

 

Not so great.  They are over the cap by $16M and they got a lot of UFAs they need to make decisions on.

Not to mention that at draft time they got only picks in 2, 3, 6, 6, 6, 6, 7, 7.

If Stafford isn't back to his former self, it could get tough for them.

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, Success said:

Great article, and very true. I have also seen some analysts say that Allen's contract is already a bargain, and he'll probably be more in the range of the 10th highest QB pay in just a year or 2.

 

Beane has some flaws, but I think he's kind of a wizard w/ the cap, at least so far.  I trust him to be able to work the dollars so we'll always be able to surround Allen w/ a competitive team.

 

He is very good at working the numbers. 

 

He is just not good at selecting free agents or drafting. 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

He is very good at working the numbers. 

 

He is just not good at selecting free agents or drafting. 

 

I think it is a tad harsh on his drafting which isn't perfect but compares well with his peers. But it is worth remembering Beane is not a GM from a scouting background. He is from the football ops side by trade. So maybe not surprising his track record on that side is more impressive.

[BADOLBILZ]

43 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Could not agree more. Mitch Morse has been decent, but was slightly overpaid his first deal here (compared to his peers at the time). Beas and Brown were good value. He just got a good year out of Daquan Jones and he got a good (cheap) year out of Williams (the right tackle) and Quinton Spain (then they paid him, fell out with him and cut him in the space of 4 months). 

 

You put that against overpaying Trent Murphy, Tyler Kroft, OJ Howard (who we paid not to play), Vontae Davis (same again), Jordan Phillips (this season), Josh Norman, Vernon Butler, Mario Addison, Emmanuel Sanders, Quinton Jefferson, Star Lotulelei.... 

 

.......Nsekhe, Klein, Saffold.......all guys who somehow got $6M aav or more as well.

 

It's really a combination of big wastes AND a high volume of nickel and dime mistakes that added up on the pro side.

 

Even things like the $15M they wasted trading for Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Coleman(for a 2 week tryout) was real cap space that would go a long way toward getting the Bills back to the cap today.  

 

The Bills pro personnel department has been pretty ineffective under Beane.

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

.......Nsekhe, Klein, Saffold.......all guys who somehow got $6M aav or more as well.

 

It's really a combination of big wastes AND a high volume of nickel and dime mistakes that added up on the pro side.

 

Even things like the $15M they wasted trading for Kelvin Benjamin and Corey Coleman(for a 2 week tryout) was real cap space that would go a long way toward getting the Bills back to the cap today.  

 

The Bills pro personnel department has been pretty ineffective under Beane.

 

Lord was Nsekhe that much too? Bedknobs and broomsticks.

Edited February 22, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Alphadawg7]

45 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Could not agree more. Mitch Morse has been decent, but was slightly overpaid his first deal here (compared to his peers at the time). Beas and Brown were good value. He just got a good year out of Daquan Jones and he got a good (cheap) year out of Williams (the right tackle) and Quinton Spain (then they paid him, fell out with him and cut him in the space of 4 months). 

 

You put that against overpaying Trent Murphy, Tyler Kroft, OJ Howard (who we paid not to play), Vontae Davis (same again), Jordan Phillips (this season), Josh Norman, Vernon Butler, Mario Addison, Emmanuel Sanders, Quinton Jefferson, Star Lotulelei.... 

 

I think you are being a bit overly harsh here.  All teams sign guys like these.  And many of these guys were the early days where Beane was both a new GM and in the midst of having to clean up a mess of a roster and cap use by his predecessor.  And many of these were short term or 1 year deals with no future cap ramifications brought in to help field a competitive team without creating cap issues that would prevent the team from improving in the subsequent years.  

 

Not to mention, several played key roles in high ranked offenses and defenses that helped us win our division, reach the playoffs, and win playoff games.  Guys like Morse, Sanders, Beas, Brown, Williams all started or played key roles in our offense that has been amongst the highest scoring in the league the past 3 seasons.  Guys like Addision and Star were starters on a defense that was ranked #1 in the NFL their last year here, and Phillips was good contributor for us this year on a defense than ranked #2 in the NFL despite the crazy slew of injuries to the defense.  

 

Is every signing a home run, absolutely not, but no GM has a perfect record.  But Beane has a better track record than most.  

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think you are being a bit overly harsh here.  All teams sign guys like these.  And many of these guys were the early days where Beane was both a new GM and in the midst of having to clean up a mess of a roster and cap use by his predecessor.  And many of these were short term or 1 year deals with no future cap ramifications brought in to help field a competitive team without creating cap issues that would prevent the team from improving in the subsequent years.  

 

Not to mention, several played key roles in high ranked offenses and defenses that helped us win our division, reach the playoffs, and win playoff games.  Guys like Morse, Sanders, Beas, Brown, Williams all started or played key roles in our offense that has been amongst the highest scoring in the league the past 3 seasons.  Guys like Addision and Star were starters on a defense that was ranked #1 in the NFL their last year here, and Phillips was good contributor for us this year on a defense than ranked #2 in the NFL despite the crazy slew of injuries to the defense.  

 

Is every signing a home run, absolutely not, but no GM has a perfect record.  But Beane has a better track record than most.  

 

Phillips was a good contributor? What? In week 1? What about the other 17 weeks? Waste of money.

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Success]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think it is a tad harsh on his drafting which isn't perfect but compares well with his peers. But it is worth remembering Beane is not a GM from a scouting background. He is from the football ops side by trade. So maybe not surprising his track record on that side is more impressive.

 

I think rankings show that we fall right in the middle in terms of drafting over the past 5 years.  And that's kind of how I see it. 

 

I think evaluating Beane as a drafter also has to take into consideration how slowly we sometimes bring rookies & younger players along.  This coaching staff seems a bit cautious in that regard, at least for me.  I see Elam, Cook and Shakir as all being very quality starters for the Bills next year - and really could have been in '22.  Benford could be also if he makes a successful move to safety.  It doesn't look great - but it also wouldn't shock me a bit if Bernard turned into a very good sub at some point, and special teamer.

 

Other drafts have been more hit or miss, but it's kind of interesting to me that players like Teller, Hodgins and Zay Jones have panned out better elsewhere.

 

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Phillips was a good contributor? What? In week 1? What about the other 17 weeks? Waste of money.

 

 

He was very good until he got hurt.  He was basically playing w/ 1 arm the last half of the season.  

 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Success said:

 

I think rankings show that we fall right in the middle in terms of drafting over the past 5 years.  And that's kind of how I see it. 

 

I think evaluating Beane as a drafter also has to take into consideration how slowly we sometimes bring rookies & younger players along.  This coaching staff seems a bit cautious in that regard, at least for me.  I see Elam, Cook and Shakir as all being very quality starters for the Bills next year - and really could have been in '22.  Benford could be also if he makes a successful move to safety.  It doesn't look great - but it also wouldn't shock me a bit if Bernard turned into a very good sub at some point, and special teamer.

 

Other drafts have been more hit or miss, but it's kind of interesting to me that players like Teller, Hodgins and Zay Jones have panned out better elsewhere.

 

 

Actually the numbers show them top 3 between 2017 and 2019 (okay only two years of Beane) and top 12 since then.

 

That is what the numbers show. @JGMcD2 has posted them.

Edited February 22, 2023 by GunnerBill

[BADOLBILZ]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Lord was Nsekhe that much too? Bedknobs and broomsticks.

 

 

2 years.......$14.5M......$7.7M gtd.

 

Beane was paying backups $6M plus and getting patted on the back for it for the most part.

 

I understand that the Bills weren't much of a destination after they gutted the roster of all recent 1st and 2nd round picks in the name of culture and passed on addressing their QB problem in year 1..........but he paid double for everything in subsequent seasons and really struck out big time in pro personnel.     

[Mango]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Honestly those saying the cap doesn't matter at all and those saying the cap is a major issue are both incorrect really.  The reality is that it really lands somewhere in the middle and other factors lend to both.

 

Yes, it is true that it is possible for some teams who are tight on cap space or even over the cap can make maneuvers to manipulate their cap space to free up enough to make the moves they want.  However, that does not mean it universally works in every situation, it has no future potential ramifications, or that it is limitless in how much cap space they can magically free up in one offseason. 

 

It is absolutely possible that teams who make these kinds of maneuvers can later find themselves in an unsurmountable cap jail situation.  Does not mean they always will, but cap jail is a real thing that teams and GM's can find themselves in through poor cap management, bad contracts, and poor roster decisions.

 

This is why cap management is an important skill set of a GM despite people falsely believing the cap doesn't matter.  If your GM doesn't manage and maneuver it properly, abuses it, etc..then down the road ramifications can be significant.  Which is why I always laugh at people who think it doesn't matter, because it very much does and its honestly one of the most important parts of the GM's job.  And a GM who is good at cap management can definitely minimize the restrictions of the cap and make it feel less rigid or constricting.  

 

That being said, I have no concerns about us as Beane has been very good at how he has managed the cap, contract structures, player retention, etc where the deals are both good for the players and provide Beane and the team the flexibility to keep a contending roster around Josh Allen.  So if there is a move they want to make, I am confident in Beane's ability to put us in position to do it and also minimize future cap risk.  

 

Great post. I came to say the same. 
 

New Orleans proved you can navigate huge amounts of negative cap space. But they also proved that the Bill will eventually come due over the course of one or multiple seasons. 
 

Ultimately the Bills have to make some moves that may make the roster worse and in 2024 KC has $85M more cap dollars than the Buffalo Bills. And no matter how much they try, they won’t be able to outspend that difference between them next off season. 

[HOUSE]

2 hours ago, 1st&ten said:

What about those expensive mouth guards ?

1 per season

[Success]

9 minutes ago, Mango said:

Great post. I came to say the same. 
 

New Orleans proved you can navigate huge amounts of negative cap space. But they also proved that the Bill will eventually come due over the course of one or multiple seasons. 
 

Ultimately the Bills have to make some moves that may make the roster worse and in 2024 KC has $85M more cap dollars than the Buffalo Bills. And no matter how much they try, they won’t be able to outspend that difference between them next off season. 

 

It's worrisome that KC has so much cap going for them.  

 

That said - I'd also say they overachieved this year.  I didn't think they were as good as previous years, despite the end result.  They did the classic "get hot at the right time" thing, and they also benefitted more than Cincy or Buffalo from the forfeit-game fallout.  Both Cincy and Buffalo beat them during the season. 

 

It just seemed to fall there way at the end there, and I felt like they were a little lucky to get by both the Jags and Cincy, and also Philly in the end (but luck is also a huge part of winning a title).

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Success