It’s not the draft execution so much as it’s the draft strategy

[BarleyNY]

13 hours ago, FireChans said:

The Chiefs last year spent 2 firsts on a DE and CB. Drafted a WR who could barely see the field in the second.

 

The year prior, they drafted a LB in the second.

 

The year prior they drafted an RB in the first and a LB in the second.

 

They year prior they drafted a WR and a S in the second.

 

The year prior they drafted a DE in the second.  They traded their first for a DE.

 

So in the last FIVE years, the Chiefs have spent 7 of their 10 top picks on defensive players.  7 of 11 if you count the Orlando Brown trade.   They also got some picks back by TRADING AWAY a great offensive player and spending those picks on defense.

 

What is the difference between us and them in terms of strategy?  They drafted BETTER players. Period. They hit on some of their third and later picks. We didn't.  Period.

I’m not going to argue that Beane has drafted as well as he could have or that I don’t want to see better from him. I agree with you on that. But he has done a pretty average job compared to the league. Still, if you want to win a championship average isn’t good enough. 

 

As for KC, did you miss last off-season where they recognized their deficiencies on the OL and totally revamped it? Then they won the SB. The draft isn’t the only way to address needs. They also have the best QB in the league and that covers up a lot of deficiencies. We’ve got a QB that’s close and it does as well. I know both got injured last season, but I think about what the season that could’ve been if Allen had better protection and didn’t have to deal with the UCL injury. 

[PBF81]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

No doubt the OL is a weakness.  

 

OK, but that has to do with Beane's drafting, or lack thereof, right?  
 

How would you rate our LB corps now going into 2023?  

 

Or our secondary?  

 

RBs?  

 

After Edmunds leaves about the only noteworthy player on the roster is Oliver, and he hasn't performed up to the standards expected as stated by the team when they drafted him.  

 

A lot of people think that Rousseau will come on, but he faded, not came on, over the last 8 games of the season, so we'll see, but until it happens ... 

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by PBF81

[OldTimer1960]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

OK, but that has to do with Beane's drafting, or lack thereof, right?  
 

How would you rate our LB corps now going into 2023?  

 

Or our secondary?  

 

RBs?  

I rate the RBs as good, not great.  LB was fine with Edmunds and Milano, but a weakness if Edmunds leaves.  I share the frustration with OL - they’ve tried to address that with older FA and they have not worked out as well as hoped.  I hope they can address it this year.  I suspect that an OL will be among the better players available at pick 27 - we’ll see.  

[PBF81]

13 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I’m not going to argue that Beane has drafted as well as he could have or that I don’t want to see better from him.  But he has done a pretty average job compared to the league.  Still, if you want to win a championship average isn’t good enough.   

 

I would argue that he hasn't even done as good a job as some of his predecessors, but he's getting far more credit than they did because of Allen.  

 

But what you said right there, average isn't good enough.  So if after five years of his management it's not good enough, what's the basis for the hope that for some reason all of a sudden he's going to be drafting top-5?   That's what people are seeing.  And I would say that it's even below average.  Look at the list of players that he's drafted that I put up and ask yourself, if we had to field those as the core of our team, and bring on only average free agents, how would we do?  

 

 

5 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I rate the RBs as good, not great.  LB was fine with Edmunds and Milano, but a weakness if Edmunds leaves.  I share the frustration with OL - they’ve tried to address that with older FA and they have not worked out as well as hoped.  I hope they can address it this year.  I suspect that an OL will be among the better players available at pick 27 - we’ll see.  

 

A solid OT should be available and there will be plenty of solid G/C prospects when we're up in rounds 2/3.  

 

I'd bet you a beer though that we don't take an offensive lineman in round 1.   I don't think it's in McBeane's blood.  LOL 

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I rate the RBs as good, not great.  LB was fine with Edmunds and Milano, but a weakness if Edmunds leaves.  I share the frustration with OL - they’ve tried to address that with older FA and they have not worked out as well as hoped.  I hope they can address it this year.  I suspect that an OL will be among the better players available at pick 27 - we’ll see.  

 

BTW, I disagree that the LBs were fine with just Edmunds and Milano on the field.  IMO we need a third, and not some backup stiff.  If they were that good then we wouldn't have allowed average RBs to tear us apart.  

 

I have no idea what their plan is with only Milano as a starting caliber LB on the roster now.  Good luck with that.  I'm of the opinion that they tweaked the LB unit to only have two LBs simply because they didn't have a third worth starting.  What now, a 4-1-6?  5-1-5?  

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by PBF81

[OldTimer1960]

6 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

I would argue that he hasn't even done as good a job as some of his predecessors, but he's getting far more credit than they did because of Allen.  

 

But what you said right there, average isn't good enough.  So if after five years of his management it's not good enough, what's the basis for the hope that for some reason all of a sudden he's going to be drafting top-5?   That's what people are seeing.  And I would say that it's even below average.  Look at the list of players that he's drafted that I put up and ask yourself, if we had to field those as the core of our team, and bring on only average free agents, how would we do?  

 

 

 

A solid OT should be available and there will be plenty of solid G/C prospects when we're up in rounds 2/3.  

 

I'd bet you a beer though that we don't take an offensive lineman in round 1.   I don't think it's in McBeane's blood.  LOL 

 

 

He did maneuver into position to take Allen and he did select him - to discount that is not a fair assessment.  QB hit rate in the league is poor and he succeeded.

[PBF81]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

He did maneuver into position to take Allen and he did select him - to discount that is not a fair assessment.  QB hit rate in the league is poor and he succeeded.

 

Agreed, but is he going to live off of that singular pick?  McD too?  

 

Because they are.  That's a lot of peoples' point.  

[OldTimer1960]

52 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Agreed, but is he going to live off of that singular pick?  McD too?  

 

Because they are.  That's a lot of peoples' point.  

Beyond the Allen pick, I fault him for the Cody Ford pick - that was certainly a miss, but show me a GM who hasn’t missed like that.  I think the Rousseau pick, Edmunds pick and Oliver pick are defendable and none of them can be classified as “misses”.  I can agree that we’d like better from Epenesa and Basham, but a 6.5 sack season in a rotation from Epenesa isn’t really far below par for a 2nd round pick.  I also think that it is too soon to declare Basham a bust.

 

I don’t see how anyone can argue that Singletary hasn’t lived up to his draft status.  Now, Moss, that’s a different story.

 

I guess we have different views of what is realistic to expect of draft picks.  Again, I don’t think there is a GM that hasn’t missed on picks - even early first round picks aren’t immune to whiffs.

 

 

[PBF81]

44 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Beyond the Allen pick, I fault him for the Cody Ford pick - that was certainly a miss, but show me a GM who hasn’t missed like that.  I think the Rousseau pick, Edmunds pick and Oliver pick are defendable and none of them can be classified as “misses”.  I can agree that we’d like better from Epenesa and Basham, but a 6.5 sack season in a rotation from Epenesa isn’t really far below par for a 2nd round pick.  I also think that it is too soon to declare Basham a bust.

 

I don’t see how anyone can argue that Singletary hasn’t lived up to his draft status.  Now, Moss, that’s a different story.

 

I guess we have different views of what is realistic to expect of draft picks.  Again, I don’t think there is a GM that hasn’t missed on picks - even early first round picks aren’t immune to whiffs.

 

 

 

Singletary was a late 3rd-rounder, he's done fine considering.  As RBs go it was a fine pick there in the late 3rd, but we need more.  I mean does Singletary really contribute to us winning games more than many RBs would?  I don't think so.  This past season he ranked 25th in rushing yards for RBs.  We're talking about the team as a whole here, not each individual pick and whether or not they meet up to standards.   When we think of Singletary can we think of a time that he even took over one game, in four seasons?  No.  He had a great game vs. Atlanta, but hardly took it over.  Allen was gawd awful, so we can count that, but the point is that he doesn't give us anything that any moderate FA RB would.  

 

Yes, this is subjective.  But a lot of it also includes how to build a team, the big picture view.  It seems to me that Beane is missing that element.  And look at the number of defensive players he's drafted, you'd think that given the sheer volume of them he'd have hit on one premier player, but he hasn't.  Oliver's probably the best, but he disappears for games at a time, he's good, very good when he's on, but hardly great and certainly not a premier or impact player.  And LOL, the national media's talking about Edmunds as if he's Patrick Willis now.  

 

Here's another angle, here's our starting line-up given only Beane's drafted players and not including Allen who carries the entire team.  

 

RB:  Singletary (Presumably Cook now)  

 

RT:  Spencer Brown 

OL:  Tommy Doyle  

 

WR1:  Gabe Davis 

WR2:  Khalil Shakir 

 

TE:  Knox 

 

DE:  Rousseau

DE:  Epenesa 

DT:  Oliver 

DT:  Basham 

 

LB:  Edmunds 

LB:  Bernard  

LB:  Spectre 

 

CB:  Dane Jackson 

CB:  Benford 

CB:  Neal 

CB:  Taron Johnson 

 

S: Jaquan Johnson  

 

IDK, I view that as entirely unimpressive.  I mean where are we going with that lineup other than for the basement of whatever division we're in.  Even with Allen I don't think that we even make a wild card with that.  We get rocked on both sides.  

 

... and BTW, now take Edmunds out of that mix.  It borders on pathetic. 

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I guess we have different views of what is realistic to expect of draft picks.  Again, I don’t think there is a GM that hasn’t missed on picks - even early first round picks aren’t immune to whiffs.

 

BTW, in contrast, here is Cinci's drafted roster over the same five year time period, a team that just dusted our normal starting roster chock full of free agents.  

 

WR:  Chase 

WR:  Higgins ... not including Boyd drafted two years earlier 

 

OT:  Williams 

G:  Volson 

G/T:  Carman drafted this past year  

 

QB:  Burrow 

 

DE:  Hubbard was '18 but he's a better DE than anyone we have 

 

LB:  Wilson 

LB:  Pratt 

 

And those are their legitimate starting players, for us I just put in anyone that was drafted.  There's no comparison.  

 

... and BTW, I have a difficult time believing that that's average, our drafts under Beane that is.

 

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by PBF81

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

I’m not going to argue that Beane has drafted as well as he could have or that I don’t want to see better from him. I agree with you on that. But he has done a pretty average job compared to the league. Still, if you want to win a championship average isn’t good enough. 

 

As for KC, did you miss last off-season where they recognized their deficiencies on the OL and totally revamped it? Then they won the SB. The draft isn’t the only way to address needs. They also have the best QB in the league and that covers up a lot of deficiencies. We’ve got a QB that’s close and it does as well. I know both got injured last season, but I think about what the season that could’ve been if Allen had better protection and didn’t have to deal with the UCL injury. 

I mean, you brought up the "high picks on defense" thing.  KC did the exact same thing. They got better players.

 

Do you want to talk the OL investment with us and them in the last, say, 4 years?

 

Bills

2nd rounder Dawkins (good player)

5th rounder Teller (star, traded away)

2nd rounder Ford (bust)

3rd rounder Brown (meh)

4th rounder Doyle (bum)

7th rounder Anderson (who)

6th rounder Tenuta (off the team)

High priced FA Morse (good player)

 

Chiefs

7th rounder Allegreti (bum, backup

3rd rounder Niang (bum, backup)

2nd rounder Humphrey (good player)

6th rounder Smith (good player)

1st rounder Brown (trade, solid player)

High priced FA Thuney (good player)

 

Comparing those lists, was the problem not investing enough resources or not getting/keeping good players?

 

Edited February 23, 2023 by FireChans

[BarleyNY]

39 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Comparing those lists, was the problem not investing enough resources or not getting/keeping good players?

 

Both. Plus probably some issues with player development.

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Both. Plus probably some issues with player development.

?????

 

Does KC have a better OL than us because they invested more or because they executed well and got good players?

[BarleyNY]

51 minutes ago, FireChans said:

?????

 

Does KC have a better OL than us because they invested more or because they executed well and got good players?

Again, both. They’ve spent more draft capital and more in FA than the Bills. Your list is a bit misleading. For example, you describe Thuney’s contract and Morse’s the same way, but they aren’t close to the same.

 

And let’s not get stuck on KC. How about the Bengals versus the Bills where investment on the offense is concerned? Sure, they’ve done better with their picks, but they’ve also invested a lot more too. It’s both. 

[Thrivefourfive]

On 2/20/2023 at 12:18 PM, whorlnut said:

Both Allen and Diggs are starting to take the gloves off. Before this year, there was never any indication that they were upset and they shouldn’t have been. The offense was fairly well stocked in 2020. The oline was pretty solid and Beasley and brown were humming. Diggs was in his first year. Davis was rolling as the fourth or fifth WR. It was a good unit. 
 

Then the off-season happened and we doubled down on DEs in round 1 and 2. We added sanders to a 1 year deal and a few other pieces on offense. Then last year, we threw some one year deals to some vets and re-upped with McKenzie. We took cook in 2 and Shakir in 5, but also spent our first on another defender and a third on a guy that can’t get in the field. 
 

My point is that Diggs and Allen have seen enough. Allen petitioned for brown and Beasley at the end of the year cause he didn’t trust his “weapons”. That’s on Beane and it’s a huge black eye considering his qb was begging for help during a possible SB season. Never mind the fact that Davis had one of the worst completions % of any qualified WR and Allen clearly didn’t trust his awful line. Diggs is no different. He can also see the resource allocations are insanely lopsided and is a huge reason he isn’t targeted as much as he should be when defenses figure us out. 
 

I think it’s to the point where you won’t hear as much of the “we love each other” talk and you will see more focused talk about winning. I just hope we don’t get into a situation where Allen is bitter like Aaron Rodgers about not getting help. 

Ooo ooo, I like this. Diggs is Allen’s strategic talking piece. I think that works. Allen can’t put himself out there as disgruntled with the coaching staff/front office. But Diggs can.. fits the diva tag. Diggs is really doing Allen, and us, a solid. Smart. And the staff and FO don’t even realize they’re getting a wake up call in a nice, conscientiousness way. 
 

Go Bills!!!!

[billsfan89]

The Bills drafts from 2019 to 2022 have not been the best drafts. They haven't been tragic but the problem is that the Bills haven't hit on a "home run" pick in the draft. It's been a lot of single and doubles so to speak. 

 

2019 

Oliver, Knox and Singletary

Oliver has been an above average DT and Knox and above average TE, while Singletary has been an average RB. 

 

2020

AJ, Gabe Davis, Bass and Dane Jackson

AJ had a rough first two seasons but came up better this season. Gabe has been up and down as a WR. Bass probably the best hit but at a niche ST position and Dane Jackson a solid corner. 

 

2021

Groot, Boogie, Spencer Brown and Hamlin

Groot has been decent and has some "home run potential" but thus far he has only been solid, Boogie and Spencer Brown have been very up and down and Hamlin was playing decent before his situation but is more likely a high end backup. 

 

2022

Elam, Cook, Shakir, Benford and Bernard

Benford and Elam were up and down but both look like they can play in the league, Cook looks to be a good RB with how he ended the season, Shakir flashed some but will have to develop some more and Bernard looked lost hopefully he plays better in year two. 

 

Contrast that with 2017 to 2018 which produced Josh Allen, Milano, Tre White, Dawkins, T.Johnson and Edumonds. Allen, Milano and White are All-Pro caliber players while Johnson, Dawkins and Edumonds are "Pro Bowl" caliber players in just two drafts. 

 

The Bills need some of the 2020-2022 players to develop into higher impact players and the 2023 draft class to have at least one really big hit in it.

[PBF81]

8 hours ago, FireChans said:

I mean, you brought up the "high picks on defense" thing.  KC did the exact same thing. They got better players.

 

Do you want to talk the OL investment with us and them in the last, say, 4 years?

 

Bills

2nd rounder Dawkins (good player)

 

Just a heads up, Dawkins wasn't even on Beane's watch.  Neither were White or Milano.  All were 2017 and that draft wasn't his.  

1 hour ago, Thrivefourfive said:

Ooo ooo, I like this. Diggs is Allen’s strategic talking piece. I think that works. Allen can’t put himself out there as disgruntled with the coaching staff/front office. But Diggs can.. fits the diva tag. Diggs is really doing Allen, and us, a solid. Smart. And the staff and FO don’t even realize they’re getting a wake up call in a nice, conscientiousness way. 
 

Go Bills!!!!

 

Go Bills!  

The biggest concern for us is that people are saying that Allen has an out clause after the 2025 season, three more seasons.  If that's true and Allen isn't happy by then, he may very well walk, and who could blame him if he's got a half-assed OL and questionable receivers.  

[FireChans]

23 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Just a heads up, Dawkins wasn't even on Beane's watch.  Neither were White or Milano.  All were 2017 and that draft wasn't his.  

 

Go Bills!  

The biggest concern for us is that people are saying that Allen has an out clause after the 2025 season, three more seasons.  If that's true and Allen isn't happy by then, he may very well walk, and who could blame him if he's got a half-assed OL and questionable receivers.  

I am aware. He was still a Bills investment in the OL.

[PBF81]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I am aware. He was still a Bills investment in the OL.

 

Roger.  Just not one I'm going to give Beane credit for.  Beane's draft contributions to our OL is effectively Spencer Brown.  

[Another Fan]

On 2/20/2023 at 3:04 PM, BarleyNY said:

I’ve mentioned this in other threads, but think it’s worth having a discussion about on its own. While it is easy to look at what could have been in previous drafts and even rightly point out alternate picks we wanted at the time, I think that this regime’s drafting has been solid overall. That’s more a function of how bad most drafts are for most teams than anything exceptional done by the Bills. Seriously, look it up. Every team misses a lot. But I don’t want to discuss that here. 

 

What I want to discuss is the focus on using so many high picks and other resources on the the defense at the expense of the offense. Defense: 2 firsts spent on CBs, a first at MLB, 2 firsts, 2 seconds a huge FA signing on the DL versus 1 first on a QB, a first traded for a WR, 2 seconds spent on the OL (one of which busted) and 1 second on a RB.

 

To me it looks like the defensive success the Bills have had is directly due to the resources spent on it. If that’s what a team needs to do to find success, then it’s the talent and not the coaching. Te opportunity cost of using those resources on the offense is huge IMO. The deficiencies we see at OL and WR are because of what was spent on the defense. Imagine what the offense would look like if you flip the resource allocation - or just even it up.

 

Today’s NFL is not a league where you win a SB by building a pristine defense and then using the leftovers to support your FQB. This has been my single greatest point of frustration with this Bills regime. IMO this has to change or the Bills are not going to get a championship with Allen. I think this is what Diggs alluded to when he talked about KC having an offensive HC. 

The meat of that I agree with.  Much as I appreciate a 2000 Ravens like defense it seems kind of dated in a way today.  You can’t win in todays NFL as a defensive minded coach.  Or at the very least a real strong OC.

 

But yeah for sure Bills have their work cut out on offense