It’s not the draft execution so much as it’s the draft strategy

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I forgot about Tenuta. So that’s one each in rounds 3, 5, 6 & 7. Plus Saffold. Whoop. Meanwhile the DL gets Von Miller, several other FAs and one pick each in rounds 1 & 2. Let’s discuss the difference there. Hit rates plummet as the draft goes on. Round one breakdown is about: 1/3 of players are good enough to stay with their team after their rookie deal, 1/3 are good enough to play out their rookie deal and then play elsewhere and 1/3 bust. Round two is about 25% same team, 35% different team, 40% bust. It slides down from there. By the time you get to day 3 you’re buying lottery tickets. I’m not saying that they shouldn’t have taken some shots, but it’s not the same thing as using premium picks. 

So you want them to draft for need, but just for offense?

 

They should take their 12th OG on the board in round two instead of their #2 DT?

[BarleyNY]

6 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Buffalo's draft picks typically are reflective of the HC.  As in, all too often OBD takes the safe approach that limits risk, but means the reward is typically smaller. 

 

The one time they abandoned that principle was taking Josh, who was physically the most gifted talent in that draft.  Rousseau and Spencer Brown fit that concept, but then they went back to safe in 2022 taking Cook and Bernard along with another RD1 CB.  They're just not bold very often and that's the price teams need to pay to remain competitive.   

 

These 6 off-seasons have been a slow grind of improving, over-paying or paying market value for talent, and struggling to keep up with the league's elite.  In that regard, their strategy is safe and frequently decisions to support that are not executed well.    

I look at it similarly, but I think that recently it is more that they’re filling needs and looking for cost control.  That often comes at the expense of taking the best prospects available (at a position that isn’t a big need) or taking chances on players with bigger upsides.That gets you Basham over Humphrey because you have Morse. 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I look at it similarly, but I think that recently it is more that they’re filling needs and looking for cost control.  That often comes at the expense of taking the best prospects available (at a position that isn’t a big need) or taking chances on players with bigger upsides.That gets you Basham over Humphrey because you have Morse. 

How is drafting Boogie Basham a "need pick" when you drafted two DE's in the first and second round right before him?  But reaching for a center when you need a backup not a "need pick?"

[LABILLBACKER]

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I forgot about Tenuta. So that’s one each in rounds 3, 5, 6 & 7. Plus Saffold. Whoop. Meanwhile the DL gets Von Miller, several other FAs and one pick each in rounds 1 & 2. Let’s discuss the difference there. Hit rates plummet as the draft goes on. Round one breakdown is about: 1/3 of players are good enough to stay with their team after their rookie deal, 1/3 are good enough to play out their rookie deal and then play elsewhere and 1/3 bust. Round two is about 25% same team, 35% different team, 40% bust. It slides down from there. By the time you get to day 3 you’re buying lottery tickets. I’m not saying that they shouldn’t have taken some shots, but it’s not the same thing as using premium picks. 

Drafting 5th-7th round olineman just proves how little McDermott values protecting his best player. It's a slap in the face to JA.  In 6 years, McDermott has acquired just 1 olineman in the first 2 rounds. And that was "Found On Road Dead".

[FireChans]

Just now, LABILLBACKER said:

Drafting 5th-7th round olineman just proves how little McDermott values protecting his best player. It's a slap in the face to JA.  In 6 years, McDermott has acquired just 1 olineman in the first 2 rounds. And that was "Found On Road Dead".

Dion Dawkins?

[OldTimer1960]

6 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

That gets bumped out of the playoffs for the last three seasons, the team has a lot going for it to say the least, but there are short comings on both sides of the ball, and the buck stops on the GMs HCs & coordinators desks, it is they who are not adapting or the players are not doing what they want done, either way, it’s on them to make appropriate changes in play design or personnel to achieve the goal. 
 

GO BILLS!!!

only 1 team out of 32 does not get bounced out of playoffs or earlier.  Of course, we all want them to win a championship, but realize it is VERY hard to do.  

[starrymessenger]

We will all be interested observers when # 27 is on the clock. It may show whether a new commitment to the O is in the cards. We need WR and O-line help and, probably, also with the running back position if DS walks, which I expect he will. Of course if Poyer and Tremaine also sign with other teams we will have important holes to fill at safety and LB. The safety position is especially concerning since it has been a strength of the D but Hyde is getting up there in years and who knows if Hamlin will ever be able to play again. Maybe Benford can transition maybe not. I think I would try hard to finalize a team friendly contract with Poyer if at all possible.
I would not be completely surprised if when we pick both Addison (WR) and Johnson (S) are on the board. Either one would be an outstanding pick at a position of need. My feeling is that McD would want the safety and that defensive players are perhaps graded more highly than equivalent players on offence talent-wise on the Bill's board. If instead a receiver is taken in the first (or a IOL or OT) it may indicate the change in emphasis going forward that some fans are hoping to see.

Of course FA and possibly trades might answer a lot of questions even before we get to the draft.

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

So you want them to draft for need, but just for offense?

 

They should take their 12th OG on the board in round two instead of their #2 DT?

That’s not even a good straw man. Please try to do better than that. 
 

I don’t want them to put themselves in a position where they have to draft for need. And I want them to stop pouring most of their resources into the defense. I thought that was clear. 

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

How is drafting Boogie Basham a "need pick" when you drafted two DE's in the first and second round right before him?  But reaching for a center when you need a backup not a "need pick?"

Because being 2 deep in the DL has been more important to this team than building the first string OL or drafting the BPA. 

Edited February 22, 2023 by BarleyNY

[FireChans]

22 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That’s not even a good straw man. Please try to do better than that. 
 

I don’t want them to put themselves in a position where they have to draft for need. And I want them to stop pouring most of their resources into the defense. I thought that was clear. 

Because being 2 deep in the DL has been more important to this team than building the first sting OL or drafting the BPA. 

How do you know that Boogie Basham wasn't BPA over Creed Humphrey?

[PBF81]

On 2/20/2023 at 3:04 PM, BarleyNY said:

I think that this regime’s drafting has been solid overall.

 

For the sake of discussion, I'll address this part of your original post.  

 

What's the criteria you use to draw that conclusion?  

 

Many people, fans and media alike, recognize that the team hasn't gotten X-th pick value out of their X-th picks.  To me that would determine how "solid" a GM's/Team's drafts are.  Day-3 picks that turn into starters happen to all teams, so unless there's a bunch of 'em that's a wash.  

 

So I'm curious how you arrive at that conclusion?    It's the premise of your entire post which is why I ask.  

 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by PBF81

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, PBF81 said:

 

For the sake of discussion, I'll address this part of your original post.  

 

What's the criteria you use to draw that conclusion?  

 

Many people, fans and media alike, recognize that the team hasn't gotten X-th pick value out of their X-th picks.  To me that would determine how "solid" a GM's/Team's drafts are.  Day-3 picks that turn into starters happen to all teams, so unless there's a bunch of 'em that's a wash.  

 

So I'm curious how you arrive at that conclusion?    It's the premise of your entire post which is why I ask.  

 

 

I think that many people, fans and media alike, overestimate what impact it is reasonable to expect with the X-th pick.

Would it be great if every 1st and 2nd round pick, regardless of being early, middle or late in the round, turn out to be stars?  Of course, but that isn’t how it always works out and no team is immune from disappointing outcomes for many reasons.

Edited February 21, 2023 by OldTimer1960

[John from Riverside]

Sometimes you just really want to be a fly on the wall in the conversations for the team
 

Brandon bean has shown the ability to bring in offensive talent. He did it the year that he traded the first round pick for Stefon Diggs that ***** was genius in the offense immediately got better.

 

But

 

The cursory wave that we appear to do whenever it comes to pass, protection and run blocking, is very frustrating

 

It’s like we got the really nice house, but decided to go cheap on the insurance

 

Josh Allen masks a lot he really is one of the best players in the league. The problem is when we get into the playoffs where all the teams are good you can only mask so much.

 

I would really like to see this team make a concerted effort to create a team that if Josh Allen was not behind center we would still win. I feel like that’s the mentality that they have to take in order to get the rest of the way there.

 

Absolutely no defensive players with that first round pick

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Sometimes you just really want to be a fly on the wall in the conversations for the team
 

Brandon bean has shown the ability to bring in offensive talent. He did it the year that he traded the first round pick for Stefon Diggs that ***** was genius in the offense immediately got better.

 

But

 

The cursory wave that we appear to do whenever it comes to pass, protection and run blocking, is very frustrating

 

It’s like we got the really nice house, but decided to go cheap on the insurance

 

Josh Allen masks a lot he really is one of the best players in the league. The problem is when we get into the playoffs where all the teams are good you can only mask so much.

 

I would really like to see this team make a concerted effort to create a team that if Josh Allen was not behind center we would still win. I feel like that’s the mentality that they have to take in order to get the rest of the way there.

 

Absolutely no defensive players with that first round pick

Eliminating half the players in the draft from consideration probably isn’t the best strategy.

[John from Riverside]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Eliminating half the players in the draft from consideration probably isn’t the best strategy.

It’s not about eliminating players. It’s about creating a team that can actually play come playoff time.
 

Taking a defensive player with that first pic would just be more of the same let McDermott coach up his defense

[Paup 1995MVP]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think that is more the issue...our system is the core problem is my personal opinion, and its why I have turned sour on Frazier.  Our number 1 and number ranked defenses were inept in the postseason the past 2 seasons which were clearly our best shots since Kelly era at a SB.  Meanwhile, the very offenses that dominated us were held in check the next week and both lost to teams with the 16th and 17th ranked defenses.  

 

Additionally, after putting up 2 sacks for the Bills last year, and 4.5 sacks the 2 years prior to that...Hughes was let go and put up 9 sacks on the leagues worst team this year.  Despite the fact he was labeled washed by most everyone here at his age.  

 

At some point, when our defense is hemorrhaging points and yards every post season exit and you are still not getting pressure despite the investments in the front 7 to get pressure you have to start looking at the system.  Not only did we give up a FG to Chiefs in 13 seconds last year, we did it again this year in just 12 seconds at end of first half in KC.  

 

I have lost all faith in our defensive system being the right fit.  I know it also has McD's fingerprints on this defense, but I think this defense can use some new thoughts and concepts to incorporate into it.  Not to mention, McD already had to strip Frazier of his play calling duties before in the past, and the D instantly improved.  In the Cincy game, it was reported by Tim Graham that McD was screaming when he saw our DB's ten yards off the LOS on a key 3rd and 4 as well, but Frazier and the D didn't adjust and gave up the easiest conversion.  

 

Something has to change defensively IMHO.  And while I don't expect any kind of complete over haul while McD is the HC, I would like to see some new thoughts, new play calling, and new blood inserted into it.  

Good thoughts Alpha.  You know your football.  I did not know that Jerry Hughes had 9 sacks this past season.  That's impressive for any team.  But given how bad the Texans were record wise, that's even more impressive.  Is he planning on playing another season with the Texans?

 

Lets hope that the disaster that was the Bengals playoff game is the low point for this defense.  And that changes to our defensive system are made.  A more aggressive attacking defense is definitely needed.  Don't need safeties lining up 20+ yards beyond the line of scrimmage on most plays, with corners 8-10 yards off WR's.  Makes it too easy for the opposing offense.  And the mindset is one of passivity.  That can not be in professional football.  

[All_Pro_Bills]

If I've got it right the Bills organization structure has both the GM and HC reporting into ownership.  So, they're sort of co-GM's.  I think that's a problem but one that's easily correctable.  If I'm Pegula, I would address that by changing the reporting relationships to HC to GM and GM to owner.  That's put Beane clearly in charge of the draft and all other personnel decisions.  At this point I think its better to concentrate this responsibility with the GM to remove any real or imagined bias towards picking defensive players.  I expect there's not much of a chance this happens.  

 

I agree they've neglected the offense for one reason or another and not surrounding your QB with protection and more weapons given the way the league favors the offenses and how unique of a talent they've got in Allen is a major blunder.  Whether its McDermott's influence or defensive bias on the selections or how the board is set up.  I think they still need to go BPA vs. pure need but if there's a close score between an offensive vs. a defensive guy the offense needs to take priority.    

Edited February 22, 2023 by All_Pro_Bills

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think that many people, fans and media alike, overestimate what impact it is reasonable to expect with the X-th pick.

Would it be great if every 1st and 2nd round pick, regardless of being early, middle or late in the round, turn out to be stars?  Of course, but that isn’t how it always works out and no team is immune from disappointing outcomes for many reasons.

 

No, of course not, but you have to hit some of 'em.   Say you have three picks, one each in the first three rounds, it's not unreasonble that at least one of those three equal or exceed their related draft spot.  We've not gotten that, not even close.  Other than Allen, jury's out on Rousseau, but otherwise a swing-and-a-miss.  

 

Either way, that's how good teams are built so that they don't get into cap hell.  If it's reasonable to get all starters on day 3, great, but where are they here.  Beane hasn't done a good job, that's why we're regressing and in worse cap shape than we were when he got here, or the same anyway.  

[Jeff1954]

Great discussion. Thanks. Will be better able to judge the 2022 draft next season when, hopefully, Cook, Shakir, Elam, and Benford should get a lot more touches. (Not going to comment on Bernard- didn’t see him.)

Being realistic, Beane will be here for years yet. So he should be. It is up to the coaches to give his picks the best chance to be successful. We can’t judge the quality of the picks if the players aren’t given more chances. Or are the coaches telling us what they think of the picks?

I would really value people’s opinions in this regard on the almost non-use of Nyheim Hines in the offence after the trade as he is effectively one of this year’s fifth round picks.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

For the sake of discussion, I'll address this part of your original post.  

 

What's the criteria you use to draw that conclusion?  

 

Many people, fans and media alike, recognize that the team hasn't gotten X-th pick value out of their X-th picks.  To me that would determine how "solid" a GM's/Team's drafts are.  Day-3 picks that turn into starters happen to all teams, so unless there's a bunch of 'em that's a wash.  

 

So I'm curious how you arrive at that conclusion?    It's the premise of your entire post which is why I ask.  

 

 

I’ve looked at a lot of different analyses of draft performance. Here is a three part one that does a decent job. Harvard has put out some good stuff on it too. I think casual fans expect far too much success from draft picks. Just look at the optimism on this board for late round picks. The statistics do not bear that out at all.

 

I think this regime has been in the average range as far as pick usage. Let’s look at their first round picks. According to the analysis linked above first round picks’ performance is:

- 30% Players who perform well enough to get their second contract with the team that drafted them. These are almost always premium contracts. 

- 50% Players who sign their second contract with another team. These are usually lesser contracts. 

- 20% Players who bust and are out of the league. 
- Early picks have a better success rate than later ones. 
 

Looking at the Bills first round pick usage they got:

- Tre White, elite CB in top 30% group

- Josh Allen, elite QB in top 30% group

- Tre Edmunds, arguably in the top 30% and definitely in the 50% group

- Oliver, probably in the 50% group. Good player who didn’t live up to his top 10 draft slot.

- Trade for Diggs, certainly a talent well worth that pick. You can discount it somewhat due to the extra contract expense. Still, excellent value.

- Rousseau - TBD, but I think he’s already safely in the 50% group. He could wind up in the top 30% group tho. 
- Elam - TBD. 
 

That performance is much better than league average. I think if I ran through the second round we’d come back to Earth because the Bills have definitely underperformed there. After that I think we’d be pretty average since league wide performance falls off every round. Obviously coaching and development play a part too, but that’s where my head is at. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve looked at a lot of different analyses of draft performance. Here is a three part one that does a decent job. Harvard has put out some good stuff on it too. I think casual fans expect far too much success from draft picks. Just look at the optimism on this board for late round picks. The statistics do not bear that out at all.

 

I think this regime has been in the average range as far as pick usage. Let’s look at their first round picks. According to the analysis linked above first round picks’ performance is:

- 30% Players who perform well enough to get their second contract with the team that drafted them. These are almost always premium contracts. 

- 50% Players who sign their second contract with another team. These are usually lesser contracts. 

- 20% Players who bust and are out of the league. 
- Early picks have a better success rate than later ones. 
 

Looking at the Bills first round pick usage they got:

- Tre White, elite CB in top 30% group

- Josh Allen, elite QB in top 30% group

- Tre Edmunds, arguably in the top 30% and definitely in the 50% group

- Oliver, probably in the 50% group. Good player who didn’t live up to his top 10 draft slot.

- Trade for Diggs, certainly a talent well worth that pick. You can discount it somewhat due to the extra contract expense. Still, excellent value.

- Rousseau - TBD, but I think he’s already safely in the 50% group. He could wind up in the top 30% group tho. 
- Elam - TBD. 
 

That performance is much better than league average. I think if I ran through the second round we’d come back to Earth because the Bills have definitely underperformed there. After that I think we’d be pretty average since league wide performance falls off every round. Obviously coaching and development play a part too, but that’s where my head is at. 

 

Thanks, I'll look that over in detail when I have time.  I don't care the source, good analysis is good analysis.  I'm curious what their base criteria(s) is/are.  

 

I'll get back to you ...