It’s not the draft execution so much as it’s the draft strategy

[BarleyNY]

I’ve mentioned this in other threads, but think it’s worth having a discussion about on its own. While it is easy to look at what could have been in previous drafts and even rightly point out alternate picks we wanted at the time, I think that this regime’s drafting has been solid overall. That’s more a function of how bad most drafts are for most teams than anything exceptional done by the Bills. Seriously, look it up. Every team misses a lot. But I don’t want to discuss that here. 

 

What I want to discuss is the focus on using so many high picks and other resources on the the defense at the expense of the offense. Defense: 2 firsts spent on CBs, a first at MLB, 2 firsts, 2 seconds a huge FA signing on the DL versus 1 first on a QB, a first traded for a WR, 2 seconds spent on the OL (one of which busted) and 1 second on a RB.

 

To me it looks like the defensive success the Bills have had is directly due to the resources spent on it. If that’s what a team needs to do to find success, then it’s the talent and not the coaching. Te opportunity cost of using those resources on the offense is huge IMO. The deficiencies we see at OL and WR are because of what was spent on the defense. Imagine what the offense would look like if you flip the resource allocation - or just even it up.

 

Today’s NFL is not a league where you win a SB by building a pristine defense and then using the leftovers to support your FQB. This has been my single greatest point of frustration with this Bills regime. IMO this has to change or the Bills are not going to get a championship with Allen. I think this is what Diggs alluded to when he talked about KC having an offensive HC. 

[RoyBatty is alive]

Why not just come out and say you want an offensive minded coach and draft for offense, we get it.

[Alphadawg7]

11 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve mentioned this in other threads, but think it’s worth having a discussion about on its own. While it is easy to look at what could have been in previous drafts and even rightly point out alternate picks we wanted at the time, I think that this regime’s drafting has been solid overall. That’s more a function of how bad most drafts are for most teams than anything exceptional done by the Bills. Seriously, look it up. Every team misses a lot. But I don’t want to discuss that here. 

 

What I want to discuss is the focus on using so many high picks and other resources on the the defense at the expense of the offense. Defense: 2 firsts spent on CBs, a first at MLB, 2 firsts, 2 seconds a huge FA signing on the DL versus 1 first on a QB, a first traded for a WR, 2 seconds spent on the OL (one of which busted) and 1 second on a RB.

 

To me it looks like the defensive success the Bills have had is directly due to the resources spent on it. If that’s what a team needs to do to find success, then it’s the talent and not the coaching. Te opportunity cost of using those resources on the offense is huge IMO. The deficiencies we see at OL and WR are because of what was spent on the defense. Imagine what the offense would look like if you flip the resource allocation - or just even it up.

 

Today’s NFL is not a league where you win a SB by building a pristine defense and then using the leftovers to support your FQB. This has been my single greatest point of frustration with this Bills regime. IMO this has to change or the Bills are not going to get a championship with Allen. I think this is what Diggs alluded to when he talked about KC having an offensive HC. 

 

The issue has been that Fraziers defenses have continued to lay down and look totally out classed in our playoff losses, especially the past 3 years.  He has given up 107 points and 1403 yards just in our last 3 playoff losses.  Those 3 teams would all lose the next week and combine for just 56 points and 1034 yards in those games, substantially less than when they played against our D just one week earlier.  In fact we gave up more than double those points to those same teams, and we had MUCH higher ranked defenses those years too.

 

And when you see those juggernaut offenses get slowed down and lose after having their way with Buffalo, it is hard to fault the FO feeling like our defense needs to get better.  And the most frustrating part about it was that our defense had a lot of talent on it, so it felt like making an improvement in a specific area would take that D to the next level.  

 

So I have a hard time faulting Beane for believing defenses improvements would be what helped get us over the top, especially with an already potent offense where Allen was still ascending and expected to keep getting better.  Plus this year, there were quite a bit more expectations from Gabe Davis who really put up a rather disappointing season, and so much so that there are real questions if he is even capable of being a quality #2 WR or better suited to be a #3.  

 

But lets also not forget, we have spent many valuable draft picks on offense as well along the way, it wasn't totally ignored like a lot of people seem to want to believe.  Investing a first into Diggs, and multiple 2nd's and 3rds on OL, RB's, and TE.  

 

And even looking at the drafting of Cook and Shakir last year.  Our first year OC struggled to involve them most the season in the game plan.  And with Cook, they struggled more to use him in the way they envisioned which was as a receiving weapon for Josh.  Then they traded for Hines to also help in the passing game as a weapon for Josh...and again, Dorsey couldn't get him involved.  

 

So I also can't fault Beane for a first ever OC not being able to better utilize the players on the roster.  However, the top heavy investment into D for me is more a result of Fraziers Defenses getting embarrassed in the playoff losses ending our season.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Don Otreply]

Rather succinct of you OP, you hit the nail on the head. 

  Beane & Mcdermott really need to stop with the Idea that the Offense will work being held together with duct tape and bailing wire, it’s past time to actually build a power house offense, hell, they might even win a championship if they do…, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

[whorlnut]

Both Allen and Diggs are starting to take the gloves off. Before this year, there was never any indication that they were upset and they shouldn’t have been. The offense was fairly well stocked in 2020. The oline was pretty solid and Beasley and brown were humming. Diggs was in his first year. Davis was rolling as the fourth or fifth WR. It was a good unit. 
 

Then the off-season happened and we doubled down on DEs in round 1 and 2. We added sanders to a 1 year deal and a few other pieces on offense. Then last year, we threw some one year deals to some vets and re-upped with McKenzie. We took cook in 2 and Shakir in 5, but also spent our first on another defender and a third on a guy that can’t get in the field. 
 

My point is that Diggs and Allen have seen enough. Allen petitioned for brown and Beasley at the end of the year cause he didn’t trust his “weapons”. That’s on Beane and it’s a huge black eye considering his qb was begging for help during a possible SB season. Never mind the fact that Davis had one of the worst completions % of any qualified WR and Allen clearly didn’t trust his awful line. Diggs is no different. He can also see the resource allocations are insanely lopsided and is a huge reason he isn’t targeted as much as he should be when defenses figure us out. 
 

I think it’s to the point where you won’t hear as much of the “we love each other” talk and you will see more focused talk about winning. I just hope we don’t get into a situation where Allen is bitter like Aaron Rodgers about not getting help. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by whorlnut

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

The issue has been that Fraziers defenses have continued to lay down and look totally out classed in our playoff losses, especially the past 3 years.  He has given up 107 points and 1403 yards just in our last 3 playoff losses.  Those 3 teams would all lose the next week and combine for just 56 points and 1034 yards in those games, substantially less than when they played against our D just one week earlier.  In fact we gave up more than double those points to those same teams, and we had MUCH higher ranked defenses those years too.

 

And when you see those juggernaut offenses get slowed down and lose after having their way with Buffalo, it is hard to fault the FO feeling like our defense needs to get better.  And the most frustrating part about it was that our defense had a lot of talent on it, so it felt like making an improvement in a specific area would take that D to the next level.  

 

So I have a hard time faulting Beane for believing defenses improvements would be what helped get us over the top, especially with an already potent offense where Allen was still ascending and expected to keep getting better.  Plus this year, there were quite a bit more expectations from Gabe Davis who really put up a rather disappointing season, and so much so that there are real questions if he is even capable of being a quality #2 WR or better suited to be a #3.  

 

But lets also not forget, we have spent many valuable draft picks on offense as well along the way, it wasn't totally ignored like a lot of people seem to want to believe.  Investing a first into Diggs, and multiple 2nd's and 3rds on OL, RB's, and TE.  

 

And even looking at the drafting of Cook and Shakir last year.  Our first year OC struggled to involve them most the season in the game plan.  And with Cook, they struggled more to use him in the way they envisioned which was as a receiving weapon for Josh.  Then they traded for Hines to also help in the passing game as a weapon for Josh...and again, Dorsey couldn't get him involved.  

 

So I also can't fault Beane for a first ever OC not being able to better utilize the players on the roster.  However, the top heavy investment into D for me is more a result of Fraziers Defenses getting embarrassed in the playoff losses ending our season.

Yeah, what was going on behind the scenes as to why Shakir wasn't on the field in place of McKenzie, and why they continued to use the "it's hard to get someone up to speed" excuse for Hines. 

 

He caught 7 balls in his first game ever in the NFL, with 12 total touches. 

 

In Buffalo, he touched the ball 11 times on offense after the November 1st trade. 

[starrymessenger]

7 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Yeah, what was going on behind the scenes as to why Shakir wasn't on the field in place of McKenzie, and why they continued to use the "it's hard to get someone up to speed" excuse for Hines. 

 

He caught 7 balls in his first game ever in the NFL, with 12 total touches. 

 

In Buffalo, he touched the ball 11 times on offense after the November 1st trade. 

McD and Frazier do not appear to do offence. They are both defensive specialists. Their OC doesn't seem to do it well either. If developing the offence is the way forward I don't have the confidence right now that this staff can do it now that Daboll is gone.

 

[RoyBatty is alive]

15 minutes ago, starrymessenger said:

McD and Frazier do not appear to do offence. They are both defensive specialists. Their OC doesn't seem to do it well either. If developing the offence is the way forward I don't have the confidence right now that this staff can do it now that Daboll is gone.

 

Can we stop getting carried away.

 

Yes, Mcdermot is Defensive minded as is Frazier, what did you want Frazier to be, offensive minded?  And you dont like Dorsey.  It is not all on Dorsey, good or bad.  Dorsey isnt the reason Josh fumbled the ball in the endzone followed up by a game ending interception.  Yes too much is put on Allen but his mistakes have been lethal, one can be intellectually Homest about it or lay the blame on Dorsey or McDermott who was praised here for months as potential HC of the year and 

 

We had for most of the season one of the most dynamic offenses around, so lets stop with the hyperbole.

[starrymessenger]

2 minutes ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Can we stop getting carried away.

 

Yes, Mcdermot is Defensive minded as is Frazier, what did you want Frazier to be, offensive minded?  And you dont like Dorsey.  It is not all on Dorsey, good or bad.  Dorsey isnt the reason Josh fumbled the ball in the endzone followed up by a game ending interception.  Yes too much is put on Allen but his mistakes have been lethal, one can be intellectually Homest about it or lay the blame on Dorsey or McDermott who was praised here for months as potential HC of the year and 

 

We had for most of the season one of the most dynamic offenses around, so lets stop with the hyperbole.

Josh regressed at times this year. Of course the easy thing to do is blame the player when he underperforms. The point is that as great a player as he can be Josh is fully capable of underperforming at times. His instincts can tend towards sandlot hero ball antics. He absolutely needs to be coached and imo coached hard. To me it doesn't seem like Dorsey can do that. Imo Daboll could.
Since, as you seem to agree, McD and Frazier are defensive coaches I don't know how emphasis on the offence, if it even happens, would have good chances of being successful. Who is going to build this thing?

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

53 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Rather succinct of you OP, you hit the nail on the head. 

  Beane & Mcdermott really need to stop with the Idea that the Offense will work being held together with duct tape and bailing wire, it’s past time to actually build a power house offense, hell, they might even win a championship if they do…, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

But realistically at the end of the 2021 season the offense, the offense was working at a very high level.  The biggest issues in 2020 and 2021 was stopping the run and sacking the QB.  The year in 2022 it didn't work, but yet almost the same team as 2021 was back the only exceptions were Stafford for Williams, McKenzie for Beasley and Dorsey for Daboll, plus new line coach.  What was the problem, who knows.  The area that seemed to regress the most was the Oline which again 4 of the 5 players were back and had a new coach.

 

Not disagreeing that they need to spend resources on the offense, but can understand why more attention was given to defense.

[RoyBatty is alive]

1 minute ago, starrymessenger said:

Josh regressed at times this year. Of course the easy thing to do is blame the player when he underperforms. The point is that as great a player as he can be Josh is fully capable of underperforming at times. His instincts can tend towards sandlot hero ball antics. He absolutely needs to be coached and imo coached hard. To me it doesn't seem like Dorsey can do that. Imo Daboll could.
Since, as you seem to agree, McD and Frazier are defensive coaches I don't know how emphasis on the offence, if it even happens, would have good chances of being successful. Who is going to build this thing?

Frazier has a title, Defensive Coordinator, that is his job, his job is not to build the offense and no I am not a fan of Frazier, I think the NFL has moved past him. 

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

The issue has been that Fraziers defenses have continued to lay down and look totally out classed in our playoff losses, especially the past 3 years.  He has given up 107 points and 1403 yards just in our last 3 playoff losses.  Those 3 teams would all lose the next week and combine for just 56 points and 1034 yards in those games, substantially less than when they played against our D just one week earlier.  In fact we gave up more than double those points to those same teams, and we had MUCH higher ranked defenses those years too.

 

And when you see those juggernaut offenses get slowed down and lose after having their way with Buffalo, it is hard to fault the FO feeling like our defense needs to get better.  And the most frustrating part about it was that our defense had a lot of talent on it, so it felt like making an improvement in a specific area would take that D to the next level.  

 

So I have a hard time faulting Beane for believing defenses improvements would be what helped get us over the top, especially with an already potent offense where Allen was still ascending and expected to keep getting better.  Plus this year, there were quite a bit more expectations from Gabe Davis who really put up a rather disappointing season, and so much so that there are real questions if he is even capable of being a quality #2 WR or better suited to be a #3.  

 

But lets also not forget, we have spent many valuable draft picks on offense as well along the way, it wasn't totally ignored like a lot of people seem to want to believe.  Investing a first into Diggs, and multiple 2nd's and 3rds on OL, RB's, and TE.  

 

And even looking at the drafting of Cook and Shakir last year.  Our first year OC struggled to involve them most the season in the game plan.  And with Cook, they struggled more to use him in the way they envisioned which was as a receiving weapon for Josh.  Then they traded for Hines to also help in the passing game as a weapon for Josh...and again, Dorsey couldn't get him involved.  

 

So I also can't fault Beane for a first ever OC not being able to better utilize the players on the roster.  However, the top heavy investment into D for me is more a result of Fraziers Defenses getting embarrassed in the playoff losses ending our season.

Seems like an offense that was more effective would’ve helped in two of the three games you referenced. The other one - KC last season - wasn’t a personnel issue, it was a coaching error. So an offense that could keep KC or Cincy’s offense off the field could’ve been the difference but in both games. I do not see how any team wins in today’s NFL by prioritizing defense over offense. I am not sure how anyone can equate hoping players with significant limitations and later round picks work out on offense versus throwing far more high draft picks and free agent dollars at the defense.

 

As for Dorsey and his hiring, I agree that we should expect more out of the offensive scheme and play calling. That said, some more talent to work with is also needed. Dorsey and Allen were put in a spot where, compared to the defense, they were expected to do more with less. That was not exactly the way I’d have set up a rookie OC for success. And here’s the thing about that - as a first time OC getting his big break Dorsey was not in a position to make any demands when he took the job. A more experienced coach would’ve made demands as a condition of taking the jobs including improvements to offensive personnel. 

6 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Why not just come out and say you want an offensive minded coach and draft for offense, we get it.

You should probably just reread what I wrote - more slowly. 

[Alphadawg7]

28 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Seems like an offense that was more effective would’ve helped in two of the three games you referenced. The other one - KC last season - wasn’t a personnel issue, it was a coaching error. So an offense that could keep KC or Cincy’s offense off the field could’ve been the difference but in both games. I do not see how any team wins in today’s NFL by prioritizing defense over offense. I am not sure how anyone can equate hoping players with significant limitations and later round picks work out on offense versus throwing far more high draft picks and free agent dollars at the defense.

 

As for Dorsey and his hiring, I agree that we should expect more out of the offensive scheme and play calling. That said, some more talent to work with is also needed. Dorsey and Allen were put in a spot where, compared to the defense, they were expected to do more with less. That was not exactly the way I’d have set up a rookie OC for success. And here’s the thing about that - as a first time OC getting his big break Dorsey was not in a position to make any demands when he took the job. A more experienced coach would’ve made demands as a condition of taking the jobs including improvements to offensive personnel.

Coming off last year, the offense had just set NFL playoff records over its two games.  Josh Allen had 9 TDs and almost 800 yards in 2 games with no turnovers.  But…Our defense just surrendered 42 points, including giving up 17 points in final 2 of regulation and opening drive of OT.  
 

It was not crazy to look at our playoffs and feel much better about the offense than the defense heading into last season.  Davis seemed to be on the rise too, just about everyone expected more from him this year than what he did.  
 

Between the previous 2 seasons of 2020 and 2021, we combined to score the most points in the entire NFL.  Literally the most points of any team over that span.  

 

You also are ignoring we still drafted Cook in the 2nd and Shakir to go along with signing some guys for the offense like Crowder and trading for Hines mid season.  The offense was not ignored to the degree you are trying to say here.  And we badly needed a CB given Tre was far from ready.  
 

End of the day, Crowder got hurt and Dorsey failed to incorporate Cook, Shakir and Hines effectively into the offense most the season.  

So like I said in my last post, really hard to fault the FO for seeing the defense as a bigger issue after the KC loss than the offense was. 

 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Don Otreply]

6 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

But realistically at the end of the 2021 season the offense, the offense was working at a very high level.  The biggest issues in 2020 and 2021 was stopping the run and sacking the QB.  The year in 2022 it didn't work, but yet almost the same team as 2021 was back the only exceptions were Stafford for Williams, McKenzie for Beasley and Dorsey for Daboll, plus new line coach.  What was the problem, who knows.  The area that seemed to regress the most was the Oline which again 4 of the 5 players were back and had a new coach.

 

Not disagreeing that they need to spend resources on the offense, but can understand why more attention was given to defense.

Yup, don’t disagree so much, although the offense was imo, not supported properly personnel wise,  (yes I know they hired a bunch of O side coaches to supposedly assist with this).

 

   I am referring to a rookie OC that lacked experience in personnel use, play design, and sequencing the play calling, ( which was brought up by former successful QBs who saw it this way)  this played a part in why we struggled to beat lesser and equal teams, it was the previously mentioned O side coaches who imo should have been more proactive in helping out Dorsey when the offense started to struggle during the second half of the season, assisting the rookie OC was in theory why they were hired,  what ever was going on wasn’t working so well  as the season progressed.
 

Water under the bridge at this point…,  fingers crossed going forward, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Dopey]

8 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Rather succinct of you OP, you hit the nail on the head. 

  Beane & Mcdermott really need to stop with the Idea that the Offense will work being held together with duct tape and bailing wire, it’s past time to actually build a power house offense, hell, they might even win a championship if they do…, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

According to ESPN, we were:

4th in total yds

4th in total points 

those numbers are for the entire league, not just the afc. And with a qb with an elbow injury. 
If I was just counting on TBD for research on the Bills , I would have figured we suck offensively. 
You know, the defense isn’t half bad either. Again, I wouldn’t know that I’d this place was all I used for research. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by Dopey

[BobbyC81]

11 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Rather succinct of you OP, you hit the nail on the head. 

  Beane & Mcdermott really need to stop with the Idea that the Offense will work being held together with duct tape and bailing wire, it’s past time to actually build a power house offense, hell, they might even win a championship if they do…, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

Let’s see.  The Bills were 4th in points in 2022, 3rd in 2021 and 2nd in 2020.  OMG, it’s a decreasing trend!
 

Looks like a powerhouse offense to me.

[John from Riverside]

13 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Why not just come out and say you want an offensive minded coach and draft for offense, we get it.

I would settle for a defensive coach that let the office of coordinator do what he wanted and gave him the groceries to execute it while he concentrated on coaching up the defense
 

I felt that’s what he did with dabol, except not giving him the groceries as much as he could have

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

👆🏼A surprising number of TBD-TSW contributors.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

15 hours ago, RoyBatty is alive said:

Can we stop getting carried away.

 

Yes, Mcdermot is Defensive minded as is Frazier, what did you want Frazier to be, offensive minded?  And you dont like Dorsey.  It is not all on Dorsey, good or bad.  Dorsey isnt the reason Josh fumbled the ball in the endzone followed up by a game ending interception.  Yes too much is put on Allen but his mistakes have been lethal, one can be intellectually Homest about it or lay the blame on Dorsey or McDermott who was praised here for months as potential HC of the year and 

 

We had for most of the season one of the most dynamic offenses around, so lets stop with the hyperbole.

His mistakes are lethal because there's no plan b 

6 hours ago, Dopey said:

According to ESPN, we were:

4th in total yds

4th in total points 

those numbers are for the entire league, not just the afc. And with a qb with an elbow injury. 
If I was just counting on TBD for research on the Bills , I would have figured we suck offensively. 
You know, the defense isn’t half bad either. Again, I wouldn’t know that I’d this place was all I used for research. 

Defense looks great against non playoff teams 

 

 

 

 

[Dopey]

29 minutes ago, Pine Barrens Mafia said:

His mistakes are lethal because there's no plan b 

Defense looks great against non playoff teams 

 

 

 

 

We were 4-3 vs playoff teams including the playoff loss. 

Ravens scored 19 on us

Even in a loss to Miami(a playoff team) we held them to 212 total yards. 

The SB champs scored 20 in us. 
Are they supposed to let up on non playoff teams?