Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

He's an inconsistent pass catcher. Some games he's on, others he's off. Thus he's 50%. It's not just stats, it's visible when you watch the games. His route tree is limited, his foot work is slow & he can't separate easily, which is why he has to go way down field. He can't separate & get the needed shorter intermediate catches with any kind of consistency. We can & should upgrade from him @ WR2.

 

 

Nah, his hips are stiff and he's not as good laterally as vertically. And guys who are consistently thrown so many longer routes do have lower catch percentages. Long passes are simply harder to connect on, for QBs and receivers both. It's a big risk / big reward deal.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Thurman#1

[purple haze]

On 2/20/2023 at 6:46 AM, GunnerBill said:

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

Give me a higher, more consistent catch rate across from Diggs and Diggs will give us even more big plays.

Edited February 22, 2023 by purple haze

[Thurman#1]

13 hours ago, Billz4ever said:

Bit of a disappointment? He was arguably the biggest disappointment on the entire team this year performance-wise unless you give those honors to Saffold.  

 

 

 

If so, that says more about the expectations than about performance.

 

That game against the Chiefs in 2021 got people's expectations unreasonably high. Me too. He had a good year. 

[Mango]

On 2/20/2023 at 10:12 AM, The Jokeman said:

Davis ranked 33rd last year in receiving yards despite his drop issues, one could argue that's the best #2 WR in the league but of course he's not as some top guys on other teams didn't rank in the top 32. Davis isn't an elite #2 but would call him above average. 

The most pressing needs for the Bills offense are OL, Slot receiver, Play calling, QB decision making. 
 

Spending a lot of resources upgrading Gabe Davis seems like a waste if you could spend thenupgrading the above. (I know you can’t upgrade play calling or QB decision making with money or draft picks)

[Straight Hucklebuck]

49 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Nah, his hips are stiff and he's not as good laterally as vertically. And guys who are consistently thrown so many longer routes do have lower catch percentages. Long passes are simply harder to connect on, for QBs and receivers both. It's a big risk / big reward deal.

I agree on his stiffness, the upright running style. 

 

But at 6'2" he is the tallest WR on the Bills, and you just don't see any contested catch with Gabe Davis. 

 

Yes, I know he ripped the ball out of Levi Wallace's hands, but he doesn't pluck the ball away from defenders in a crowd, fight through small spaces on the field. 

 

He really only seems to be able to catch footballs when he can get a runway and have green grass in front of him. 

 

Or its the comeback route off the go. 

 

He makes the Patriots catch, that's 50 yards and a TD, and the 70-yard Jets heave and he's at 1000 yards and 8 TDs on the year. 

 

To me, there is room to squeeze more production out of that skill set if he (like Josh) hits the weight room and gets into better shape. 

[Mango]

On 2/20/2023 at 4:19 PM, HappyDays said:

The problem in this discussion is that there are two different conversations going on. Is Davis a decent #2 WR? Yes. Is he a good enough #2 WR on a championship caliber offense? No. Look at how many weapons the other final contenders had. If we want to level up our offense we need much better than Davis as the 2nd most targeted player on offense. How is this even a debate?

I don’t think Davis is a world beater. I do think he’s fine. A guy you upgrade when the opportunity presents itself but you dot. Spend a lot of time, money, or resources doing so. Even if you are championship team. 
 

I disagree with the bolded. Davis is fine. Having a WR 1a/1b isn’t the norm for any QB post rookie contract. It just isn’t. Mahomes didn’t have a WR with more than 4TD receptions, but Davis isn’t good enough? 
 

Fix the OL. Fix the play calling. Get Allen seeing the field better. And we’ll stop caring about Gabe Davis so much. 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

I don’t think Davis is a world beater. I do think he’s fine. A guy you upgrade when the opportunity presents itself but you dot. Spend a lot of time, money, or resources doing so. Even if you are championship team. 
 

I disagree with the bolded. Davis is fine. Having a WR 1a/1b isn’t the norm for any QB post rookie contract. It just isn’t. Mahomes didn’t have a WR with more than 4TD receptions, but Davis isn’t good enough? 
 

Fix the OL. Fix the play calling. Get Allen seeing the field better. And we’ll stop caring about Gabe Davis so much. 

 

I think there's a world where Davis is our #2 WR and the offense is still consistently very good. The OL would have to be much better, we would need a consistent starting caliber slot WR, and we would have to make it a point to get Knox and Cook and Hines more involved in the passing game. If all of that happens we could live with Davis as the #2 outside WR, presumably with a rookie behind him.

 

But Davis is so easily upgradeable, so why not just do that? There are a lot of veteran WRs who are clearly better than Davis and are potentially available this offseason - OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, to name a few. I know a couple of those are just rumored to be available. But I would take any of those guys in Davis' spot and relegate him to the rotational/specialist role he excelled in his first two years.

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster is proven to be better than Davis. He had 1,400 yards playing across from an elite receiver in Pittsburgh. Davis hasn't come close to that. I don't think JuJu is great by any means but he can separate and run a full route tree. He isn't a huge TD producer but he moves the chains. The Chiefs offense this year was all about moving the chains and then Andy Reid's trickery punching it into the  endzone when they got close enough. Remember he led a Chiefs offense with Alex Smith that didn't have a single TD to a WR over an entire season. He's a master of scheming up TDs through any means possible.

 

Getting a little off topic here but the Chiefs of 2021 are actually a great parallel to the Bills of 2022. Mahomes and the offense as a whole that year were too focused on the deep ball so their offense lacked rhythm. Mahomes went through a slump in the middle of that season where he was forcing passes down field instead of taking easy completions underneath. Sound familiar? That issue cost them an AFC Championship Game that they were winning by multiple scores. So Andy Reid works his magic and develops an entirely new style of offense in the offseason. They trade away Tyreek Hill and focus on throwing short/intermediate throws to Kelce and JuJu and get the RBs heavily involved in the passing game. Their offensive philosophy totally flipped in a single offseason. But they also added guys like JuJu and Toney and McKinnon to make their new philosophy work.

 

So If your idea is to run it back with basically the same group of skill position players and just trust Dorsey to figure it out, I don't think that's likely to work. Any OL improvements this offseason will be moderate, we aren't going to get the Chiefs or Eagles or 49ers OL in one offseason. It's a lot easier to find a much better WR #2 than it is to build a much better OL IMO.

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by HappyDays

[Mango]

9 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think there's a world where Davis is our #2 WR and the offense is still consistently very good. The OL would have to be much better, we would need a consistent starting caliber slot WR, and we would have to make it a point to get Knox and Cook and Hines more involved in the passing game. If all of that happens we could live with Davis as the #2 outside WR, presumably with a rookie behind him.

 

But Davis is so easily upgradeable, so why not just do that? There are a lot of veteran WRs who are clearly better than Davis and are potentially available this offseason - OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, to name a few. I know a couple of those are just rumored to be available. But I would take any of those guys in Davis' spot and relegate him to the rotational/specialist role he excelled in his first two years.

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster is proven to be better than Davis. He had 1,400 yards playing across from an elite receiver in Pittsburgh. Davis hasn't come close to that. I don't think JuJu is great by any means but he can separate and run a full route tree. He isn't a huge TD producer but he moves the chains. The Chiefs offense this year was all about moving the chains and then Andy Reid's trickery punching it into the  endzone when they got close enough. Remember he led a Chiefs offense with Alex Smith that didn't have a single TD to a WR over an entire season. He's a master of scheming up TDs through any means possible.

 

Getting a little off topic here but the Chiefs of 2021 are actually a great parallel to the Bills of 2022. Mahomes and the offense as a whole that year were too focused on the deep ball so their offense lacked rhythm. Mahomes went through a slump in the middle of that season where he was forcing passes down field instead of taking easy completions underneath. Sound familiar? That issue cost them an AFC Championship Game that they were winning by multiple scores. So Andy Reid works his magic and develops an entirely new style of offense in the offseason. They trade away Tyreek Hill and focus on throwing short/intermediate throws to Kelce and JuJu and get the RBs heavily involved in the passing game. Their offensive philosophy totally flipped in a single offseason. But they also added guys like JuJu and Toney and McKinnon to make their new philosophy work.

 

So If your idea is to run it back with basically the same group of skill position players and just trust Dorsey to figure it out, I don't think that's likely to work. Any OL improvements this offseason will be moderate, we aren't going to get the Chiefs or Eagles or 49ers OL in one offseason. It's a lot easier to find a much better WR #2 than it is to build a much better OL IMO.

 

 

 

My stance is to run the direction of your first paragraph. 

I am fine with "easily upgradable". Fine go do it. But the guys you want to target are $15-20M+ per year. If we need two $20M WR we don't have a WR problem, we have a QB problem. I don't believe we have a QB problem. If we can get Mike Evans on an $8-12M deal go for it. Otherwise I have no interest in mortgaging 2024 and 2025 cap space for a WR when both OL and DL suck. 

Wholeheartedly agree that we need a starting slot WR and a change in offensive philosophy. As a guy who watches the A22 every week I am unsure if offensive philosophy is the the total issue. My dumb fan eyes have been telling me the same thing Kurt Warner did at the end of the year, and that is that Allen needs to make the QB position easier and see what the defense is giving him. There is certainly a ton of blame on OC, but Allen deserves a bit as well. 

My plan wouldn't be to just run it back. We have seen over and over again that teams who spread the ball out to tons of WR, RB, TE, etc have pretty solid post season success. And in that environment Gabe Davis is just fine as a cog in the machine. Upgrade OL and the slot. 

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I agree on his stiffness, the upright running style. 

 

But at 6'2" he is the tallest WR on the Bills, and you just don't see any contested catch with Gabe Davis. 

 

Yes, I know he ripped the ball out of Levi Wallace's hands, but he doesn't pluck the ball away from defenders in a crowd, fight through small spaces on the field. 

 

He really only seems to be able to catch footballs when he can get a runway and have green grass in front of him. 

 

Or its the comeback route off the go. 

 

He makes the Patriots catch, that's 50 yards and a TD, and the 70-yard Jets heave and he's at 1000 yards and 8 TDs on the year. 

 

To me, there is room to squeeze more production out of that skill set if he (like Josh) hits the weight room and gets into better shape. 

 

 

Not buying that. "You just don't see any contested catch with Gabe Davis"? Simply not true.

 

He had that terrific contested catch on the 2nd TD against Pittsburgh, the 62 yard TD. Fitzpatrick was in great position and actually pins Davis' arm to his side. Davis has a step and a half on the CB but Fitz is running straight vertical while Davis has to go a bit sideways. Minkah pins his arm to his side so Davis catches it one-handed and then Fitzpatrick gets two hands on it and starts to rip it away ... and Davis will have absolutely none of it and simply muscles it away from him. That was as contested as *****. A beautiful TD.

 

Or the TD with 0:23 left in the second quarter in the 2021 Pittsburgh game. The guy is leaning right on him, but Allen throws it to him anyway, and Davis just muscles his way to the ball for the TD.

 

Or the one at 6:20 in the 3rd quarter of the first Jets game in 2021. 

 

Or the 2021 Monday night game against the Pats at 2:03 in the first quarter. Just a slant over the middle and a sweet pass from Allen, the CB gets a hand in and almost knocks it out, contesting it, and Davis just holds on and brings it in. He will not let it be ripped out.

 

I'm just going through a highlights film and finding them, ah, another one with a guy right on him and Davis coming back to the ball, reaching out and just using his length to get to it and hold it as the guy tries to rake it out against the Panthers at 7:58 in the 1st.

 

Oh, yeah, that Chargers catch in 2020 at 10:10 in the 4th. Just simply out-leaps the CB.

 

Last game of the season in his rookie year, against the Fins, at 14:26 in the 4th. Davis has like four yards on the CB, but Allen's throw forces him to slow way up, the CB catches up to him but Davis simply gets in his way out-reaches him.

 

Look, it simply isn't true, and I didn't even get halfway through that 2021 highlights film. If anything it says more about what you're choosing to remember.

 

You're right that he's open a lot. But that's not a bad thing. It's quite good, in fact.

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think there's a world where Davis is our #2 WR and the offense is still consistently very good. The OL would have to be much better, we would need a consistent starting caliber slot WR, and we would have to make it a point to get Knox and Cook and Hines more involved in the passing game. If all of that happens we could live with Davis as the #2 outside WR, presumably with a rookie behind him.

 

But Davis is so easily upgradeable, so why not just do that? There are a lot of veteran WRs who are clearly better than Davis and are potentially available this offseason - OBJ, DeAndre Hopkins, Michael Thomas, Brandin Cooks, Mike Evans, to name a few. I know a couple of those are just rumored to be available. But I would take any of those guys in Davis' spot and relegate him to the rotational/specialist role he excelled in his first two years.

 

JuJu Smith-Schuster is proven to be better than Davis. He had 1,400 yards playing across from an elite receiver in Pittsburgh. Davis hasn't come close to that. I don't think JuJu is great by any means but he can separate and run a full route tree. He isn't a huge TD producer but he moves the chains. The Chiefs offense this year was all about moving the chains and then Andy Reid's trickery punching it into the  endzone when they got close enough. Remember he led a Chiefs offense with Alex Smith that didn't have a single TD to a WR over an entire season. He's a master of scheming up TDs through any means possible.

 

Getting a little off topic here but the Chiefs of 2021 are actually a great parallel to the Bills of 2022. Mahomes and the offense as a whole that year were too focused on the deep ball so their offense lacked rhythm. Mahomes went through a slump in the middle of that season where he was forcing passes down field instead of taking easy completions underneath. Sound familiar? That issue cost them an AFC Championship Game that they were winning by multiple scores. So Andy Reid works his magic and develops an entirely new style of offense in the offseason. They trade away Tyreek Hill and focus on throwing short/intermediate throws to Kelce and JuJu and get the RBs heavily involved in the passing game. Their offensive philosophy totally flipped in a single offseason. But they also added guys like JuJu and Toney and McKinnon to make their new philosophy work.

 

So If your idea is to run it back with basically the same group of skill position players and just trust Dorsey to figure it out, I don't think that's likely to work. Any OL improvements this offseason will be moderate, we aren't going to get the Chiefs or Eagles or 49ers OL in one offseason. It's a lot easier to find a much better WR #2 than it is to build a much better OL IMO.

 

 

 

The Chiefs didn't find a much better #2. They got rid of their #1 and brought in a bunch of "easily upgradeable" #2s and #3s. They got Smith-Schuster for about $3M.

[Success]

Everyone is kind of pining for Hodgins & wondering how we let him get away - but in no universe is Hodgins a better receiver than Davis.  

 

Davis underperformed this past season. But he can still be a great #2 for us, imo.  The skills are there.  He had more of a case of the dropsies in '22 - it was most of the season, so we have to see if that becomes a recurring pattern. But he has a ton of talent.

 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Not buying that. "You just don't see any contested catch with Gabe Davis"? Simply not true.

 

He had that terrific contested catch on the 2nd TD against Pittsburgh, the 62 yard TD. Fitzpatrick was in great position and actually pins Davis' arm to his side. Davis has a step and a half on the CB but Fitz is running straight vertical while Davis has to go a bit sideways. Minkah pins his arm to his side so Davis catches it one-handed and then Fitzpatrick gets two hands on it and starts to rip it away ... and Davis will have absolutely none of it and simply muscles it away from him. That was as contested as *****. A beautiful TD.

 

Or the TD with 0:23 left in the second quarter in the 2021 Pittsburgh game. The guy is leaning right on him, but Allen throws it to him anyway, and Davis just muscles his way to the ball for the TD.

 

Or the one at 6:20 in the 3rd quarter of the first Jets game in 2021. 

 

Or the 2021 Monday night game against the Pats at 2:03 in the first quarter. Just a slant over the middle and a sweet pass from Allen, the CB gets a hand in and almost knocks it out, contesting it, and Davis just holds on and brings it in. He will not let it be ripped out.

 

I'm just going through a highlights film and finding them, ah, another one with a guy right on him and Davis coming back to the ball, reaching out and just using his length to get to it and hold it as the guy tries to rake it out against the Panthers at 7:58 in the 1st.

 

Oh, yeah, that Chargers catch in 2020 at 10:10 in the 4th. Just simply out-leaps the CB.

 

Last game of the season in his rookie year, against the Fins, at 14:26 in the 4th. Davis has like four yards on the CB, but Allen's throw forces him to slow way up, the CB catches up to him but Davis simply gets in his way out-reaches him.

 

Look, it simply isn't true, and I didn't even get halfway through that 2021 highlights film. If anything it says more about what you're choosing to remember.

 

You're right that he's open a lot. But that's not a bad thing. It's quite good, in fact.

Yeah you’re right, my bad, he’s Mossing guys constantly out there.

[Simon Says]

Wide  receivers have become  more and more important. Therefore, exorbitantly priced. Thats why I prefer the Bills add one in the draft rather than free agency. You are kind  of comparing apples to oranges here,as well.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Herb Nightly

[HappyDays]

28 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The Chiefs didn't find a much better #2. They got rid of their #1 and brought in a bunch of "easily upgradeable" #2s and #3s. They got Smith-Schuster for about $3M.

 

They had two #1s in Kelce and Hill. They got rid of one. But that came after a concerted effort to build an elite OL after they got trounced in Super Bowl LV. They gave an $80 million contract to Joe Thuney, they traded a 1st for Orlando Brown, they hit on two picks in Creed Humphrey and Trey Smith. And most importantly they have one of the greatest offensive minds of all time at the helm. I don't personally expect Dorsey to suddenly become Andy Reid or for us to develop an elite OL in one offseason. I also don't expect Davis to be better than JuJu Smith-Schuster. So, the easiest and most realistic avenue of improvement for our offense this offseason is upgrading Davis.

 

The Chiefs also aren't the only example of a championship caliber team. The Eagles traded for AJ Brown. The 49ers traded for McCaffrey. The Bengals drafted Chase just one year after drafting Tee Higgins. Adding offensive weapons to an already talented offense is a proven method of making a team championship caliber. In the case of the Bengals they did it even with an average at best OL.

[colin]

This is a great thread.  the numbers have been discussed to death, and i think it's clear davis has a problem w catching.

 

from watching him play, the thing that stands out to me the most is on the left hand side of the field, either catching over the right shoulder (which several times meant if he catches it clean he's getting 6, instead he drops it) or coming back to the ball, he's just awful.  i mean, the number of drops where the ball went through his hands into his chest would be crazy for a good highschool player.

 

he (or the scheme and other players) are doing well to get open in those positions, but he's dropping perfect balls way to often in the exact same way.  i hope he can figure this out and simply improve his ability in those spots.  coulda been a TD at the jets, and a TD vs the Bengals.  if he hits those, it woulda been home field throughout, and there's a shot that we get back in that bengals game and have a sick sick comeback at home.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

22 hours ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

I like cutting McKenzie. 

 

Don't bring Brown, Beasley, Kumerow or Crowder back. 

 

Sign Olamide Zaccheaus and Darius Slayton. 

 

Then draft a R1 WR. 

 

 

This flushes out the Bottom 3 WRs. 

 

Cheap veterans this team can afford in their mid-20's. 

 

Elite traits WR that buffers Gabe Davis leaving after next year. 

 

 

Regardless, Beane has to have it in his head that one #1 WR is not enough. Diggs is not enough. Stack weapons. 

 

So you flipped the WR room - but 3 play - that doesn't leave a lot of playing time for davis, rookie, shakir.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

Diggs plays 75% of snaps and checks himself out of the game. 

 

Davis was 90%+ plus last year, that can come down, we have a baseline on his 2020-2021 seasons. 

 

Ideally the rookie can play outside or inside right away.

 

Leaving full time ownership of the slot up for grabs between Zachheaus and Shakir. 
 

Slayton was phased out of New York but I thought he was productive when on the field, he’d be a great flex WR and bars against injury. 

 

McKenzie being brought back is really a non-starter. He has no role other than slot gadget and just gets in the way of Shakir. 

 

 

[without a drought]

Gabe Davis obviously needs to be more consistent and do a better job holding onto the ball, but besides his impressive you. There is this.

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/what-wr-has-the-most-receiving-td-in-the-last-3-years

[Orlando Buffalo]

On 2/21/2023 at 10:42 PM, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

If so, that says more about the expectations than about performance.

 

That game against the Chiefs in 2021 got people's expectations unreasonably high. Me too. He had a good year. 

I am one of those that got unreasonably high based on end of last year but he is an average #2. I thought he was gonna be a low end #1 but he is more limited than I realized. The Bills appreciate him properly. 

[StHustle]

Some game he played like a #1, others a good #2, and the rest a low end #2. Overall, he ended up being an average #2. He can definitely improve and with his drive we shall see if he takes a jump into more consistent hands. Josh Reed cause to mind as a guy who finally got his hands together after a few bad seasons. 
 

with that said, if we were able to get a DHop or someone else who can bump Gabe to #3, he’d be the best #3 in the league imo. I also think we’d have the best over WR corp in the league cause our #3-5 would be tops in the league and #1-2 is in the conversation.