Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[ghostwriter]

Nah. He didn’t make the most of the opportunities given to him. He’s shown flashes, but as far as from a sheer production standpoint he’s been very average. Luckily for him he will have another opportunity to prove himself this year.

[HappyDays]

The problem in this discussion is that there are two different conversations going on. Is Davis a decent #2 WR? Yes. Is he a good enough #2 WR on a championship caliber offense? No. Look at how many weapons the other final contenders had. If we want to level up our offense we need much better than Davis as the 2nd most targeted player on offense. How is this even a debate?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

15 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Just saying, it's not a given, even with a top QB.

 

Nine QBs threw for over 4,100 yards this year, and only 3 of their 9 teams had their WR #2 go over 1,000 yards. And those players' stats were:

Tee Higgins: 1,029 yds and 7 TDs [on 109 Targets]

Chris Godwin: 1,023 and 3 TDs [on 142 targets]

Tyler Lockett: 1,033 and 9 TDs [on 117 Targets]

 

Gabe Davis had 836 and 7 TDs [on 93 Targets]

 

Diggs [154 targets] took more opportunities away from Davis than did the other three players' counterparts: Chase [134 targets], Evans [127 targets], Metcalf [141 targets].

 

If you pro-rated Gabe's stats to the number of targets that the other three players got, it would look like this:

with Higgins # of targets: 980 yards and 8 TDs

with Godwin's # of targets: 1,276 yards and 10.65 TDs

with Lockett's # of targets: 1,052 yards and 8.775 TDs

 

And again, 6 of the 9 teams didn't have two 1,000 yard receivers to begin with. It isn't the norm, even with the top passing QBs in the league.

 

As far as TDs go, Six QBs threw at least 29 TDs. Here are their top two TD receivers' totals:

Mahomes: Kelce (TE) 12 and McKinnon (RB) 9  -  [His top 2 WRs only had 5 TDs combined]

Allen: Diggs 11 and Davis 7

Burrow: Chase 9 and Higgins 7

Smith: Lockett 9 and Metcalf 6

Cousins: Jefferson 8 and Thielen 6

Goff: St. Brown 6 and Chark 3

 

So, expecting more than 7 TDs from your number two WR is also a lot to ask, even from a prolific passing team.

 

 

 

You’re doing too much work. Lol, but good work.

 

Gabe Davis’ numbers to me are average WR2 numbers for a high scoring offense. Maybe below average.

 

Thats kind of the point I’m trying to make. I know 1,000+ and 10 TDs are big numbers for WR2 but that’s my expectation in this offense.

 

Otherwise you’re replaceable. Gabe Davis is a replaceable WR2. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The question was is he undervalued. I think some of the responses in this thread prove he is because they have said things that are demonstrably not true like "he is a number 3"

 

In a championship caliber offense he is a #3 target at best. That's what he would have been for any of the final 4 teams. Likely #3 for KC and #4 or worse for the rest. We're the only team that had a talent like that as our #2.

[Einstein]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The question was is he undervalued. I think some of the responses in this thread prove he is because they have said things that are demonstrably not true like "he is a number 3" 

 

I think there is a case to be made for both a mediocre #2 and a #3.

 

79th in receptions - That would make a #3 WR

33rd in yards - That would make him a #2 WR

2nd in yards/rec  - That would make him a #1 WR

186th in catch % - That would make him a #6 WR

 

But you also have to take into account that he is in one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL.

 

I think there is a definite argument to be made that he puts up #3 WR numbers in a normal offense.

 

[GunnerBill]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

In a championship caliber offense he is a #3 target at best. That's what he would have been for any of the final 4 teams. Likely #3 for KC and #4 or worse for the rest. We're the only team that had a talent like that as our #2.

 

I don't disagree with that. But that doesn't mean he isn't a #2. It means the Bills have to get better. We agree there. I said that 12 months ago.

6 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

I think there is a case to be made for both a mediocre #2 and a #3.

 

79th in receptions - That would make a #3 WR

33rd in yards - That would make him a #2 WR

2nd in yards/rec  - That would make him a #1 WR

186th in catch % - That would make him a #6 WR

 

But you also have to take into account that he is in one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL.

 

I think there is a definite argument to be made that he puts up #3 WR numbers in a normal offense.

 

 

But he puts up #2 numbers in this offense. He is a #2. Just a mediocre one. 

[BADOLBILZ]

41 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

In a championship caliber offense he is a #3 target at best. That's what he would have been for any of the final 4 teams. Likely #3 for KC and #4 or worse for the rest. We're the only team that had a talent like that as our #2.

 

 

That's really all that matters.

 

This is a SB contending team and they just don't match up with the best at WR2.    

 

As much as we talk about offensive line........there has been a greater correlation in the quality of receiving targets in teams reaching the championship games and SB's  in recent years than even the quality of the offensive lines.

 

The Bills need to address both areas but anyone who thinks that WR2 isn't the most important individual player they can add isn't paying attention.

[NoSaint]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

define for me the difference between low two and high 3 or 4?  
 

Sure he’s a boundary guy not a slot - so that may be an effect here/  but I’m not sure anyone can really articulate the gap between WR50 and WR70 in WR rankings. it’s incomplete guys that can contribute heavily. Scheme and role fit being bigger impact than gaps in talent through much of that.
 

If 4 is your first perimeter backup…. That may be where he slots up for most teams as a below average 2 that’s not a slot guy though 

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That's really all that matters.

 

This is a SB contending team and they just don't match up with the best at WR2.    

 

As much as we talk about offensive line........there has been a greater correlation in the quality of receiving targets in teams reaching the championship games and SB's  in recent years than even the quality of the offensive lines.

 

The Bills need to address both areas but anyone who thinks that WR2 isn't the most important individual player they can add isn't paying attention.

Think about Josh Allen with Tyreek Hill AND Jaylen Waddle. Devonta Smith AND AJ Brown...Ja'Marr Chase AND Tyler Boyd. The Bills offense would be unstoppable. You can't stop multiple high-level targets with today's rules, both on the perimeter and in the pocket. Why would you not want that kind of devilish situation here on our team? Where has the Bills management been the last several years? It's like they tie one hand behind their back because they want to make sure other teams have a chance.

 

The fact Bengals fans can say Joe Burrow is better than Josh Allen and there's only so much a Bills fan can say in response and it's "agree to disagree" is a travesty. It's a huge failing on the Bills organization around the QB from the management to the coaches.

 

Every person on this planet should be slapped on the nose with the knowledge that Josh Allen is the best quarterback alive. And it's not even like management has tried to build around him and missed. They don't even try.

[Alphadawg7]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

 

Personally, I think the concerns with Davis today exceed just the low catch rate and his drop rate.  And focusing just on his catch rate is missing the bigger picture with Davis in terms to the concerns heading into this offseason versus the optimism around him heading into last years offseason after the KC game.

• His situational awareness has been problematic at times, including not getting his feet down in bounds where it should have been routine catch.    
• Despite an expanded role in the offense as the full time #2 for the season, he didn't really show any growth and his production wasn't much more than it had been.  I mean 12% of his total yards on the season came on one single play against Pitt.  
• He appears to have a limited route tree and has not shown consistency in getting open.  These things have been both shown by All-22 and mentioned even by an opposing defender.
• And I question his mental toughness when things don't go his way personally.  There have been clear shifts in his body language when he doesn't make a play he should have made and seems to get dejected and affect his confidence in those games.  
• Furthermore - Davis has a "reputation" of making big plays and coming up big in playoffs.  But, is that really accurate?  I think its exaggerated and more built off the lore of the KC playoff game and a few other games because its not happened very much over his 3 year career.   
  • His big plays, and especially big games, are far and in between during the regular season where his production in a pass happy offense opposite an elite WR has been underwhelming.  
  • He only had 1 game with 100 yards this year during the regular season but had 10 games with less than 60 yards.
  • And he has only had 2 big games out of 7 in the playoffs (KC last year, Miami this year).  The other 5 games were minimal games where he wasn't much of a factor.  

I think a "lower end" description of him as a #2 is a bit generous description...I think he is more of a solid #3 WR forced to act as a #2 due to lack of options.  

 

What I do know, is Davis right now being the #2 focal point of the passing attack was not enough for Josh and this offense this year.  I think that was pretty clear and we now face two paths this offseason:

1. We are either have to find an upgrade to Davis via draft, FA, or trade allowing Davis to be more of a quality #3 guy in the pass game rather than a low end #2...
2. Or we need to upgrade the other weapons around Diggs and Davis so our passing attack isn't so overly dependent on Davis.  That would mean someone emerging at the slot like Shakir or bringing in someone who can be a legit threat from the slot, and also getting Knox and RB's more involved in the passing game. 
   1. First and foremost, they need to upgrade the OL so we can have the freedom to use Knox and the RB's more in the passing game and less as extra blockers.  

But pertaining specifically to Davis, this offseason needs to either upgrade from Davis or it needs bigger threats outside of him so we can minimize the dependence on Davis opposite Diggs.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

I think there is a case to be made for both a mediocre #2 and a #3.

 

79th in receptions - That would make a #3 WR

33rd in yards - That would make him a #2 WR

2nd in yards/rec  - That would make him a #1 WR

186th in catch % - That would make him a #6 WR

 

But you also have to take into account that he is in one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL.

 

I think there is a definite argument to be made that he puts up #3 WR numbers in a normal offense.

 

 

33rd in yards, but 12% of his total yards came on one 98 yard play against Pitt.  So the 33rd in yards lacks the context to show in his inconsistency.  I mean he had 10 games under 60 yards as a #2 WR on a pass happy offense while getting to play opposite a top 5 WR in Diggs and on a team who didn't have a lot of other weapons to throw to.  

 

Davis right now feels a lot more like a solid #3 WR forced to play #2 because we don't have anyone better.  

Edited February 20, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Personally, I think the concerns with Davis today exceed just the low catch rate and his drop rate.  And focusing just on his catch rate is missing the bigger picture with Davis in terms to the concerns heading into this offseason versus the optimism around him heading into last years offseason after the KC game.

• His situational awareness has been problematic at times, including not getting his feet down in bounds where it should have been routine catch.    
• Despite an expanded role in the offense as the full time #2 for the season, he didn't really show any growth and his production wasn't much more than it had been.  I mean 12% of his total yards on the season came on one single play against Pitt.  
• He appears to have a limited route tree and has not shown consistency in getting open.  These things have been both shown by All-22 and mentioned even by an opposing defender.
• And I question his mental toughness when things don't go his way personally.  There have been clear shifts in his body language when he doesn't make a play he should have made and seems to get dejected and affect his confidence in those games.  
• Furthermore - Davis has a "reputation" of making big plays and coming up big in playoffs.  But, is that really accurate?  I think its exaggerated and more built off the lore of the KC playoff game and a few other games because its not happened very much over his 3 year career.   
  • His big plays, and especially big games, are far and in between during the regular season where his production in a pass happy offense opposite an elite WR has been underwhelming.  
  • He only had 1 game with 100 yards this year during the regular season but had 10 games with less than 60 yards.
  • And he has only had 2 big games out of 7 in the playoffs (KC last year, Miami this year).  The other 5 games were minimal games where he wasn't much of a factor.  

I do think a "lower end" description of him as a #2 is adequate description though...and that would also make him a quality #3 if we say drafted, signed, or traded for someone that took over the #2 role.  

 

What I do know, is Davis right now being the #2 focal point of the passing attack was not enough for Josh and this offense this year.  I think that was pretty clear and we now face two paths this offseason:

1. We are either have to find an upgrade to Davis via draft, FA, or trade allowing Davis to be more of a quality #3 guy in the pass game rather than a low end #2...
2. Or we need to upgrade the other weapons around Diggs and Davis so our passing attack isn't so overly dependent on Davis.  That would mean someone emerging at the slot like Shakir or bringing in someone who can be a legit threat from the slot, and also getting Knox and RB's more involved in the passing game. 
   1. First and foremost, they need to upgrade the OL so we can have the freedom to use Knox and the RB's more in the passing game and less as extra blockers.  

But pertaining specifically to Davis, this offseason needs to either upgrade from Davis or it needs bigger threats outside of him so we can minimize the dependence on Davis opposite Diggs.  

 

 

 

33rd in yards, but 12% of his total yards came on one 98 yard play against Pitt.  So the 33rd in yards lacks the context to show in his inconsistency.  I mean he had 10 games under 60 yards as a #2 WR on a pass happy offense while getting to play opposite a top 5 WR in Diggs and on a team who didn't have a lot of other weapons to throw to.  

 

Davis right now feels a lot more like a solid #3 WR forced to play #2 because we don't have anyone better.  

 

Nah he is a #2. He isn't good enough for what the Bills need. But he is a #2. You can absolutely make the playoffs with Gabe Davis as your #2 receiver. It is just making the playoffs isn't the standard in Buffalo any more. 

40 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

define for me the difference between low two and high 3 or 4?  
 

Sure he’s a boundary guy not a slot - so that may be an effect here/  but I’m not sure anyone can really articulate the gap between WR50 and WR70 in WR rankings. it’s incomplete guys that can contribute heavily. Scheme and role fit being bigger impact than gaps in talent through much of that.
 

If 4 is your first perimeter backup…. That may be where he slots up for most teams as a below average 2 that’s not a slot guy though 

 

He is a starting outside receiver in the NFL. Just a lower end one. 

[Einstein]

9 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Personally, I think the concerns with Davis today exceed just the low catch rate and his drop rate.  And focusing just on his catch rate is missing the bigger picture with Davis in terms to the concerns heading into this offseason versus the optimism around him heading into last years offseason after the KC game.

• His situational awareness has been problematic at times, including not getting his feet down in bounds where it should have been routine catch.    
• Despite an expanded role in the offense as the full time #2 for the season, he didn't really show any growth and his production wasn't much more than it had been.  I mean 12% of his total yards on the season came on one single play against Pitt.  
• He appears to have a limited route tree and has not shown consistency in getting open.  These things have been both shown by All-22 and mentioned even by an opposing defender.
• And I question his mental toughness when things don't go his way personally.  There have been clear shifts in his body language when he doesn't make a play he should have made and seems to get dejected and affect his confidence in those games.  
• Furthermore - Davis has a "reputation" of making big plays and coming up big in playoffs.  But, is that really accurate?  I think its exaggerated and more built off the lore of the KC playoff game and a few other games because its not happened very much over his 3 year career.   
  • His big plays, and especially big games, are far and in between during the regular season where his production in a pass happy offense opposite an elite WR has been underwhelming.  
  • He only had 1 game with 100 yards this year during the regular season but had 10 games with less than 60 yards.
  • And he has only had 2 big games out of 7 in the playoffs (KC last year, Miami this year).  The other 5 games were minimal games where he wasn't much of a factor.  

I think a "lower end" description of him as a #2 is a bit generous description...I think he is more of a solid #3 WR forced to act as a #2 due to lack of options.  

 

What I do know, is Davis right now being the #2 focal point of the passing attack was not enough for Josh and this offense this year.  I think that was pretty clear and we now face two paths this offseason:

1. We are either have to find an upgrade to Davis via draft, FA, or trade allowing Davis to be more of a quality #3 guy in the pass game rather than a low end #2...
2. Or we need to upgrade the other weapons around Diggs and Davis so our passing attack isn't so overly dependent on Davis.  That would mean someone emerging at the slot like Shakir or bringing in someone who can be a legit threat from the slot, and also getting Knox and RB's more involved in the passing game. 
   1. First and foremost, they need to upgrade the OL so we can have the freedom to use Knox and the RB's more in the passing game and less as extra blockers.  

But pertaining specifically to Davis, this offseason needs to either upgrade from Davis or it needs bigger threats outside of him so we can minimize the dependence on Davis opposite Diggs.  

 

 

 

33rd in yards, but 12% of his total yards came on one 98 yard play against Pitt.  So the 33rd in yards lacks the context to show in his inconsistency.  I mean he had 10 games under 60 yards as a #2 WR on a pass happy offense while getting to play opposite a top 5 WR in Diggs and on a team who didn't have a lot of other weapons to throw to.  

 

Davis right now feels a lot more like a solid #3 WR forced to play #2 because we don't have anyone better.  

 

Great post. As I said, great argument to be made that he is a #3.

 

12% of his total yardage coming on 1 reception is insane.

[Alphadawg7]

12 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah he is a #2. He isn't good enough for what the Bills need. But he is a #2. You can absolutely make the playoffs with Gabe Davis as your #2 receiver. It is just making the playoffs isn't the standard in Buffalo any more. 

 

That is not in any way a logical argument.  We made the playoffs with Kelvin Benjamin as our #1 WR and not only was he not a #1 WR anymore, he wasn't even a #3 or #4 WR and was cut after 3 games in KC the next season and never made another roster again.  Tim Tebow made the playoffs as a starting QB, didn't mean he was a starting caliber QB in the NFL.  

 

So saying he is a #2 because a team can make the playoffs with him as a #2 WR is not evidence he is a #2 WR.  

 

If Davis got hurt on the first play of the game week 1 for the season...Bills were still making the playoffs.  

Edited February 20, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[SoCal Deek]

I find these discussions interesting. By most people’s accounts on here the Bills are a ‘pass happy’ offense. And yet again according to many, they get little to no production out of:

 

WR2

TE 

Slot WR

RB screens

 

Kinda makes ya wonder where are all the yards and points coming from then? 😉

[Einstein]

5 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

I find these discussions interesting. By most people’s accounts on here the Bills are a ‘pass happy’ offense. And yet again according to many, they get little to no production out of:

 

WR2

TE 

Slot WR

RB screens

 

Kinda makes ya wonder where are all the yards and points coming from then? 😉

 

[GunnerBill]

25 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

That is not in any way a logical argument.  We made the playoffs with Kelvin Benjamin as our #1 WR and not only was he not a #1 WR anymore, he wasn't even a #3 or #4 WR and was cut after 3 games in KC the next season and never made another roster again.  Tim Tebow made the playoffs as a starting QB, didn't mean he was a starting caliber QB in the NFL.  

 

So saying he is a #2 because a team can make the playoffs with him as a #2 WR is not evidence he is a #2 WR.  

 

If Davis got hurt on the first play of the game week 1 for the season...Bills were still making the playoffs.  

 

Fair but they didn't have the production indicators to match. Gabe's production indicators put him as a mediocre #2. I said that when Bills fans were tipping him for 1,000 yard seasons. I also say it now. He is a #2 receiver. He is capable of being that and has demonstrated that fact. 

 

Doesn't mean I don't think the Bille should be trying to upgrade. I do. I was arguing they hadn't done enough at receiver all last summer as well you know.

 

[Maine-iac]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

I think there is a case to be made for both a mediocre #2 and a #3.

 

79th in receptions - That would make a #3 WR

33rd in yards - That would make him a #2 WR

2nd in yards/rec  - That would make him a #1 WR

186th in catch % - That would make him a #6 WR

 

But you also have to take into account that he is in one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL.

 

I think there is a definite argument to be made that he puts up #3 WR numbers in a normal offense.

 

How about TD's?  I think the fact that he is constantly compared to 1st and 2nd round picks by many shows what a value he is.  Maybe he is not a high percentage chain moving threat like Diggs but he is a threat.  With his average depth of target, yards per reception, and TD's the defenses have to account for him.  We don't take enough advantage in our mid and short game and that's not his fault.  A good number of Gabe's targets probably should have been a swing pass or some Kelce like TE route but we don't use those.  My guess is that if Diggs went down Davis would get more slants and hooks and his catch percentage would be much improved but he still wouldn't be who you'd want starting at the 1 spot.  He's a good 4th round pick playing well enough to be a #2.  He's not a 1st or 2nd round pick or a free agent you paid a bunch of money so as far as resources used vs production he's a pretty good value.  In my opinion he's good enough I don't want to spend a 1st or 2nd round pick on WR when we have so many needs on the OL or possibly secondary.  Especially when a rookie WR isn't necessarily going to get you anything more on the scoreboard.  If we actually ran the ball the fact that he is a great run blocker might mean something also.

[SoCal Deek]

47 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

He’s throwing the ball to somebody? No? 

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, SoCal Deek said:

He’s throwing the ball to somebody? No? 

 

Do you remember the quality of receivers Brady was winning SB’s with?

[Donuts and Doritos]

11 hours ago, RocCityRoller said:

Davis was targeted 93 times last year.

he had 48 receptions and 8 drops (analytical sites show 7 or 8 )

That is 56 targets.

What were the other 37 'targets'? (40%)

 Read the article. It's not 1 year it's all 3 years. 

2020 = 56.5%

2021 = 55.6%

2022 = 51.6%

 

He has one of the lowest catch % in the NFL over all 3 years & it's been declining each year. This is who he is, a low catch % WR.