Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[RocCityRoller]

1 hour ago, gobills404 said:

No. I think he's over-hated by BIlls fans and over-targeted by Josh. Whether it's more Knox, more Cook,  improved play from the slot, or adding a do-it-all WR2 the Bills need to do a much better job attacking the short to intermediate areas of the field.  A WR with an extremely limited downfield route tree shouldn't be getting nearly as many targets as he does.

Probably agree with this post more than any other on this topic. 😎

 

WR3 was a mess, and Knox had a terrible start to the year. That hurt the intermediate and underneath stuff. OC needs to get Cook and Hines (if he isn't a cap casualty) involved in the passing game more. A better WR3 or a future WR1 who earns WR2 this season in camp would be wise IMO.

[Einstein]

48 minutes ago, PrimeTime101 said:

your joking right? Look.. I am not saying Davis did a good job but lets be honest with each other about this video. 

 

passes         H= Hard Catch  E= Easy Catch

#1 E

#2 E

#3 H   Low throw

#4 E

#5 H  he was WELL covered, hot ball came to high high and off his hands. (I would call this the typical WR drop Though so lets put this in the middle)

#6 1:09 mark HARD. well covered and was hit when the ball arrived.

#7 H  I mean come on. that was an under thrown ball

#8 H but he should have caught this.. will give this one to ya 

#9 H That ball was thrown way to hard. could he of caught it? yes. but the point of this exercise is, how hard of catches were these attempts? 

#10 3 seconds third and goal off the fingertips in sideline/endzone. this was so hard of a catch I thought it was funny they sneaked this one in for seconds.

#11 HARD I mean come on.. the dude jumped up and went off his finger tips... please

#12 2 defenders draped all over him. even if he had a closer attempt to catch that? would it of been stripped?

#13 another 4 second catch while Davis was falling to his knees reaching out for a pass... H H H

#14 Last one? got hit at same time ball arrived. that is a hard catch to make.

 

I disagree on most of your "hard" labels. These are basic NFL catches. They may be hard in high school, but not in the NFL.

[gobills404]

30 minutes ago, RocCityRoller said:

Probably agree with this post more than any other on this topic. 😎

That can’t be true! I was told it was a joke full of horrible narratives by a very rational and not at all angry person.

[folz]

2 hours ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Davis was one of 42 receivers with more than 93 regular season targets last season.

 

Among those 42 receivers, he was:

- last in receptions (48)

- last in catch percentage (51.6%)

- 30th in receiving yards (836)

- 36th in catches that resulted in first downs (35)

- tied for 12th in TD receptions (7)

 

He had 3 or fewer catches in 10/15 of his regular season games.

 

Courtesy of The Buffalo News 

 

This is a total cherry-picking of stats to try and prove a point by the BN writer. Whoever wrote this article chose the 93 target number because that was how many targets Gabe had...which means everyone else on that list actually had more targets than Gabe (anywhere from 1 to 91 targets more than Gabe). Of course he would be low on that list for receptions, yards, and first downs because he had fewer targets than everyone else. 

 

So, basically, all of those BN stats are absolutely meaningless except for two: (1) the catch percentage. Which we all know about. Yes, Gabe has to improve on the drops. But even with that, you have to take into account that many of Gabe's targets are low percentage (deep shots)...hard to compare that to say a player like Tyler Boyd who has mostly high percentage throws coming his way. Same with the first down stat. You can't compare first downs for say a slot receiver compared to a boom or bust deep guy; And (2) TDs: Well despite having fewer targets than the other 40 guys, he had more TDs than all but 28 (that's a good thing right?).

 

 

[Green Lightning]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

I'll buy that argument if he actually catches more than 50% of his targets.

[BADOLBILZ]

55 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Gabe this year had more yards, more yards per game, more yards per reception and more touchdowns than Sanders last year. He was, by any definition, an upgrade on  old man Manny. 

 

That is my point. I don't love Gabe. He is an upgradeable low end #2. But he was better than Sanders and yet people will make the argument he was worse. 

 

 

Gabe got more opportunity..........and he did less with it.    His yards per snap dropped from around .96 to .90 from 2021-2022..........which isn't a HUGE drop in itself but it's very notable because the assumption was that he'd get more productive on a per play basis and that would lead to him becoming a 1,000+ yard receiver ........like a Tee Higgins(1.36).    Instead he's more of a Marquez Valdes Scantling(.88).     The range between top end and low end WR2 options in the NFL is pretty significant.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Gabe got more opportunity..........and he did less with it.    His yards per snap dropped from around .96 to .90 from 2021-2022..........which isn't a HUGE drop in itself but it's very notable because the assumption was that he'd get more productive on a per play basis and that would lead to him becoming a 1,000+ yard receiver ........like a Tee Higgins(1.36).    Instead he's more of a Marquez Valdes Scantling(.88).     The range between top end and low end WR2 options in the NFL is pretty significant.

 

Yea but the point is the assumption is what is leading to some of the overreaction now. I had him for about 900 yards and 7 touchdowns in one of the pre season pop thread you know the ones where everyone gets 1,000 yards and Devin Singletary becomes a bellcow? The consesnus then was that I was a Gabe hater. Now I am a Gabe lover because when he delivers almost that sort of production I shrug and say "that's who he is." 

[folz]

3 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

In this offense the #2 WR should be 1,000+ yards and 10 TD player consistently.

 

Sometimes I think you guys are a bit unrealistic.

 

Only 22 receivers in the NFL had over 1,000 yards this season (there are 32 teams...so many teams didn't even have their #1 WR gain 1,000 yards, let alone their #2).

Of those 22 receivers, only 3 had 10+ TDs (Adams, Brown, and Diggs).

 

So, only 3 WRs in the entire NFL had 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs this year. THREE. And you expect that from our #2 WR as if that is normal for a #2? Heck, it's not even normal for a #1.

 

Only 5 NFL teams this year had two 1,000 yard receivers. Here are those teams top 2 WR numbers combined:

MIAMI: 3,066 yards and 15 TDs (Hill and Waddle)

PHILLY: 2,692 yards and 18 TDs (Brown and Smith)

TAMPA: 2,147 yards and 9 TDs (Evans and Godwin)

SEATTLE: 2,081 yards and 15 TDs (Metcalf and Lockett)

CINCY: 2,075 yards and 16 TDs (Chase and Higgins)

for comparison:

BILLS: 2,276 yards and 18 TDs (Diggs and Davis)

 

So, the combo of Diggs and Davis had the 3rd highest combined yards of any WR duo and they tied with Philly for the most TDs by any WR duo. Obviously, none of those teams had 20 TDs from their starting WR duo. So, 10 TDs a piece for your WR1 and WR2 just doesn't happen that often.

 

Not to mention that three of those five teams listed above had more passing attempts than the Bills (more attempts = more yards)

Team        Pass Attempts

Tampa         751

Cincy           610

Miami          584

[Buff            574]

Seattle        573

Philly           536

 

(Philly was the true outlier this year with the fewest attempts of the top 6 WR passing teams, yet the 2nd most yards and tied for most TDs.)

 

And then there is draft position as well when discussing those teams/players:

Team      Player       Draft position

Tampa    Evans              #7

Tampa    Godwin          #84

Cincy      Chase             #5

Cincy      Higgins          #33

Philly       Brown            #51

Philly       Smith             #10

Seattle    Metcalf          #64

Seattle    Lockett          #69

Miami      Waddle           #6

Miami      Hill                 #165

Buff         Diggs            #146

Buff         Davis             #128

 

So, when you are looking at teams with two 1,000 yard receivers, you are comparing Davis (drafted #128) with much more highly drafted players. Eight of those top twelve players were drafted in the top 69 (basically all 1st and 2nd rounders). (Hill and Diggs were obviously the big lotto picks---but to expect Davis to be that in his third year, or ever, may be expecting too much).

 

We all know Gabe needs to clean up his drops, but otherwise, you can't really knock his production (stat-wise) as a #2 WR. 

He was 30th overall in receiving yards for WRs (with only 32 teams, that would seem to put him as a low-end #1/high-end#2 for that stat).

Only 12 WRs in the entire league scored more TDs than Gabe this year.

And yet, 41 WRs had more targets than he did last season.

 

Give him an offseason on the juggs machine and a healthy 2023 campaign and I think he'll be fine. I also hope that a new voice in the WR room will help. Of course, I'm not saying don't draft or bring in another WR. Gabe is only under contract one more year, so we need to bring up some young guys anyhow...and more competition is always good. Draft a young guy and if he or Khalil beat out Gabe next year for the starting or #2 spot, so be it. Or, Gabe bounces back, holds his spot and has a much better year next season. He's still young with room to grow and improve. Most people get better with more experience/time on the job.

 

 

[RocCityRoller]

16 minutes ago, folz said:

Sometimes I think you guys are a bit unrealistic.

 

Only 22 receivers in the NFL had over 1,000 yards this season (there are 32 teams...so many teams didn't even have their #1 WR gain 1,000 yards, let alone their #2).

Of those 22 receivers, only 3 had 10+ TDs (Adams, Brown, and Diggs).

 

So, only 3 WRs in the entire NFL had 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs this year. THREE. And you expect that from our #2 WR as if that is normal for a #2? Heck, it's not even normal for a #1.......

 

Thank you, some sanity on this board and good data driven perspective. I looked at all players with 50+ targets, and then just WR with 50+ targets.

Will share that soon.

 

Something fun to note. Tampa (142 targets) and Cincy (126 targets) were the only two teams with 2 RB to have more than 50 targets. It's almost like passing to your RB makes life easier. McCaffrey and Eckler also got fed.

 

 

[Bills Fan in MD]

You can't just evaluate Gabe based on his numbers.  It's great when he goes off for 150+ yards and multiple TDs, but then he disappears for huge stretches of the season.  And the drops, which have happened on game changing plays (like the Jets game), are just killers.

 

Consistency and reliability are just as important as stats in terms of identifying where WRs fall in a team's pecking order, and why Davis isn't a true WR2 right now.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Bills Fan in MD

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Sometimes I think you guys are a bit unrealistic.

 

Only 22 receivers in the NFL had over 1,000 yards this season (there are 32 teams...so many teams didn't even have their #1 WR gain 1,000 yards, let alone their #2).

Of those 22 receivers, only 3 had 10+ TDs (Adams, Brown, and Diggs).

 

So, only 3 WRs in the entire NFL had 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs this year. THREE. And you expect that from our #2 WR as if that is normal for a #2? Heck, it's not even normal for a #1.

 

Only 5 NFL teams this year had two 1,000 yard receivers. Here are those teams top 2 WR numbers combined:

MIAMI: 3,066 yards and 15 TDs (Hill and Waddle)

PHILLY: 2,692 yards and 18 TDs (Brown and Smith)

TAMPA: 2,147 yards and 9 TDs (Evans and Godwin)

SEATTLE: 2,081 yards and 15 TDs (Metcalf and Lockett)

CINCY: 2,075 yards and 16 TDs (Chase and Higgins)

for comparison:

BILLS: 2,276 yards and 18 TDs (Diggs and Davis)

 

So, the combo of Diggs and Davis had the 3rd highest combined yards of any WR duo and they tied with Philly for the most TDs by any WR duo. Obviously, none of those teams had 20 TDs from their starting WR duo. So, 10 TDs a piece for your WR1 and WR2 just doesn't happen that often.

 

Not to mention that three of those five teams listed above had more passing attempts than the Bills (more attempts = more yards)

Team        Pass Attempts

Tampa         751

Cincy           610

Miami          584

[Buff            574]

Seattle        573

Philly           536

 

(Philly was the true outlier this year with the fewest attempts of the top 6 WR passing teams, yet the 2nd most yards and tied for most TDs.)

 

And then there is draft position as well when discussing those teams/players:

Team      Player       Draft position

Tampa    Evans              #7

Tampa    Godwin          #84

Cincy      Chase             #5

Cincy      Higgins          #33

Philly       Brown            #51

Philly       Smith             #10

Seattle    Metcalf          #64

Seattle    Lockett          #69

Miami      Waddle           #6

Miami      Hill                 #165

Buff         Diggs            #146

Buff         Davis             #128

 

So, when you are looking at teams with two 1,000 yard receivers, you are comparing Davis (drafted #128) with much more highly drafted players. Eight of those top twelve players were drafted in the top 69 (basically all 1st and 2nd rounders). (Hill and Diggs were obviously the big lotto picks---but to expect Davis to be that in his third year, or ever, may be expecting too much).

 

We all know Gabe needs to clean up his drops, but otherwise, you can't really knock his production (stat-wise) as a #2 WR. 

He was 30th overall in receiving yards for WRs (with only 32 teams, that would seem to put him as a low-end #1/high-end#2 for that stat).

Only 12 WRs in the entire league scored more TDs than Gabe this year.

And yet, 41 WRs had more targets than he did last season.

 

Give him an offseason on the juggs machine and a healthy 2023 campaign and I think he'll be fine. I also hope that a new voice in the WR room will help. Of course, I'm not saying don't draft or bring in another WR. Gabe is only under contract one more year, so we need to bring up some young guys anyhow...and more competition is always good. Draft a young guy and if he or Khalil beat out Gabe next year for the starting or #2 spot, so be it. Or, Gabe bounces back, holds his spot and has a much better year next season. He's still young with room to grow and improve. Most people get better with more experience/time on the job.

 

 

 

And those unrealistic expectations now somewhat impact perceptions. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

45 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Sometimes I think you guys are a bit unrealistic.

 

Only 22 receivers in the NFL had over 1,000 yards this season (there are 32 teams...so many teams didn't even have their #1 WR gain 1,000 yards, let alone their #2).

Of those 22 receivers, only 3 had 10+ TDs (Adams, Brown, and Diggs).

 

So, only 3 WRs in the entire NFL had 1,000+ yards and 10+ TDs this year. THREE. And you expect that from our #2 WR as if that is normal for a #2? Heck, it's not even normal for a #1.

 

Only 5 NFL teams this year had two 1,000 yard receivers. Here are those teams top 2 WR numbers combined:

MIAMI: 3,066 yards and 15 TDs (Hill and Waddle)

PHILLY: 2,692 yards and 18 TDs (Brown and Smith)

TAMPA: 2,147 yards and 9 TDs (Evans and Godwin)

SEATTLE: 2,081 yards and 15 TDs (Metcalf and Lockett)

CINCY: 2,075 yards and 16 TDs (Chase and Higgins)

for comparison:

BILLS: 2,276 yards and 18 TDs (Diggs and Davis)

 

So, the combo of Diggs and Davis had the 3rd highest combined yards of any WR duo and they tied with Philly for the most TDs by any WR duo. Obviously, none of those teams had 20 TDs from their starting WR duo. So, 10 TDs a piece for your WR1 and WR2 just doesn't happen that often.

 

Not to mention that three of those five teams listed above had more passing attempts than the Bills (more attempts = more yards)

Team        Pass Attempts

Tampa         751

Cincy           610

Miami          584

[Buff            574]

Seattle        573

Philly           536

 

(Philly was the true outlier this year with the fewest attempts of the top 6 WR passing teams, yet the 2nd most yards and tied for most TDs.)

 

And then there is draft position as well when discussing those teams/players:

Team      Player       Draft position

Tampa    Evans              #7

Tampa    Godwin          #84

Cincy      Chase             #5

Cincy      Higgins          #33

Philly       Brown            #51

Philly       Smith             #10

Seattle    Metcalf          #64

Seattle    Lockett          #69

Miami      Waddle           #6

Miami      Hill                 #165

Buff         Diggs            #146

Buff         Davis             #128

 

So, when you are looking at teams with two 1,000 yard receivers, you are comparing Davis (drafted #128) with much more highly drafted players. Eight of those top twelve players were drafted in the top 69 (basically all 1st and 2nd rounders). (Hill and Diggs were obviously the big lotto picks---but to expect Davis to be that in his third year, or ever, may be expecting too much).

 

We all know Gabe needs to clean up his drops, but otherwise, you can't really knock his production (stat-wise) as a #2 WR. 

He was 30th overall in receiving yards for WRs (with only 32 teams, that would seem to put him as a low-end #1/high-end#2 for that stat).

Only 12 WRs in the entire league scored more TDs than Gabe this year.

And yet, 41 WRs had more targets than he did last season.

 

Give him an offseason on the juggs machine and a healthy 2023 campaign and I think he'll be fine. I also hope that a new voice in the WR room will help. Of course, I'm not saying don't draft or bring in another WR. Gabe is only under contract one more year, so we need to bring up some young guys anyhow...and more competition is always good. Draft a young guy and if he or Khalil beat out Gabe next year for the starting or #2 spot, so be it. Or, Gabe bounces back, holds his spot and has a much better year next season. He's still young with room to grow and improve. Most people get better with more experience/time on the job.

 

 

Our QB has 4,300 yards and 35 TD. Not all teams throw the ball as well as the Bills.

 

I think it’s a fair expectation of WR2 with those passing stats.

 

Basically my point is 50 catches, 700-800 yards, and 6-7 TDs isn’t an impressive WR2 stat line when the QB has 4300 yards passing and 37 TDs

 

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea but the point is the assumption is what is leading to some of the overreaction now. I had him for about 900 yards and 7 touchdowns in one of the pre season pop thread you know the ones where everyone gets 1,000 yards and Devin Singletary becomes a bellcow? The consesnus then was that I was a Gabe hater. Now I am a Gabe lover because when he delivers almost that sort of production I shrug and say "that's who he is." 

 

 

Oh no question that the presumption of success is leading to some of the overreaction.........but he actually DID get worse with more reps.    

 

And maybe he does get better if there is less physical play permitted in the secondary in 2022 and it have been more officiated more like 2020-2021.

 

He got exposed at the catch point.

 

I was with you on the expectations...........I said last spring that he'd have to put up over 1,000 yards to justify being given sole ownership of all of those targets.........and I didn't see where his past production and injury history warranted that trust.

 

But I actually think his failure to excel was more than just Gabe 2022 being Gabe of the past.   Things changed.

 

We found out,  he's not a contested catch guy because suddenly he was being contested because more obstruction was permitted.

 

I think you see that change........ based on your assessment of Rashee Rice being a good fit for the Bills.   A couple years ago........I think maybe he's covered a bit too much for your liking.    Now,  there is added value in excelling at the catch point.

[GunnerBill]

9 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Oh no question that the presumption of success is leading to some of the overreaction.........but he actually DID get worse with more reps.    

 

And maybe he does get better if there is less physical play permitted in the secondary in 2022 and it have been more officiated more like 2020-2021.

 

He got exposed at the catch point.

 

I was with you on the expectations...........I said last spring that he'd have to put up over 1,000 yards to justify being given sole ownership of all of those targets.........and I didn't see where his past production and injury history warranted that trust.

 

But I actually think his failure to excel was more than just Gabe 2022 being Gabe of the past.   Things changed.

 

We found out,  he's not a contested catch guy because suddenly he was being contested because more obstruction was permitted.

 

I think you see that change........ based on your assessment of Rashee Rice being a good fit for the Bills.   A couple years ago........I think maybe he's covered a bit too much for your liking.    Now,  there is added value in excelling at the catch point.

 

I think Rice possibly fits what they look for but honestly, I am not sure. Their offensive identity is kinda hard to pin down. Gabe might have been slightly down on what he was in 2021 per usage but I think basically he was the same guy. He is a mediocre #2. Especially for a pass heavy team. They have to try and get better.

Edited February 20, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Straight Hucklebuck]

 

I feel as if our #2 WR needs a better physique than this to maximize his productivity in the NFL. 

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[Don Otreply]

No, it would appear that they over estimated his capacity to become a #2 WR, the catch percentage this past season, and for that matter, his career with Buffalo isn’t what one would call awesome, We all love the guy when he is doing his toe drag swag, etc, but it can not be argued that he did not lay an egg this past season, play design by our OC isn’t particularly helpful in this regard either…, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Billz4ever]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't disagree we need an upgrade. I was one of those banging the table for us to bring in another outside receiver last spring to at least compete / challenge him. The question was is he undervalued. I think some of the responses in this thread prove he is because they have said things that are demonstrably not true like "he is a number 3" and "he was worse than Sanders was in 2021". 

 

Personally I think a lot of Bills fans were too high on him coming into the season and as a result are too harsh on him now because their expectations were unrealistic for a player of Gabe's ability. I am kinda exactly where I have been on him throughout - mediocre #2.

 

I don't think it was just Bills fans that were too high on him.  I think the entire organization had high hopes for him heading into this past season that he had grown into the roll and they all convinced themselves that he would.  It was wishful thinking.  

[Patrick Duffy]

8 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

No, it would appear that they over estimated his capacity to become a #2 WR, the catch percentage this past season, and for that matter, his career with Buffalo isn’t what one would call awesome, We all love the guy when he is doing his toe drag swag, etc, but it can not be argued that he did not lay an egg this past season, play design by our OC isn’t particularly helpful in this regard either…, 

 

GO BILLS!!!

 

But basically we all did, or most I'd say.....

 

I mean after last 2 seasons along with how he performed in playoffs, especially in the 13 seconds game.....pretty everyone was saying how he's earned his shot to be starting WR2. I don't recall any post saying he didn't deserve his shot, if so I missed it.

 

So I mean nobody can blame them (not saying you are) for over estimating him since we all did

[folz]

11 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Our QB has 4,300 yards and 35 TD. Not all teams throw the ball as well as the Bills.

 

I think it’s a fair expectation of WR2 with those passing stats.

 

Basically my point is 50 catches, 700-800 yards, and 6-7 TDs isn’t an impressive WR2 stat line when the QB has 4300 yards passing and 37 TDs

 

 

 

Just saying, it's not a given, even with a top QB.

 

Nine QBs threw for over 4,100 yards this year, and only 3 of their 9 teams had their WR #2 go over 1,000 yards. And those players' stats were:

Tee Higgins: 1,029 yds and 7 TDs [on 109 Targets]

Chris Godwin: 1,023 and 3 TDs [on 142 targets]

Tyler Lockett: 1,033 and 9 TDs [on 117 Targets]

 

Gabe Davis had 836 and 7 TDs [on 93 Targets]

 

Diggs [154 targets] took more opportunities away from Davis than did the other three players' counterparts: Chase [134 targets], Evans [127 targets], Metcalf [141 targets].

 

If you pro-rated Gabe's stats to the number of targets that the other three players got, it would look like this:

with Higgins # of targets: 980 yards and 8 TDs

with Godwin's # of targets: 1,276 yards and 10.65 TDs

with Lockett's # of targets: 1,052 yards and 8.775 TDs

 

And again, 6 of the 9 teams didn't have two 1,000 yard receivers to begin with. It isn't the norm, even with the top passing QBs in the league.

 

As far as TDs go, Six QBs threw at least 29 TDs. Here are their top two TD receivers' totals:

Mahomes: Kelce (TE) 12 and McKinnon (RB) 9  -  [His top 2 WRs only had 5 TDs combined]

Allen: Diggs 11 and Davis 7

Burrow: Chase 9 and Higgins 7

Smith: Lockett 9 and Metcalf 6

Cousins: Jefferson 8 and Thielen 6

Goff: St. Brown 6 and Chark 3

 

So, expecting more than 7 TDs from your number two WR is also a lot to ask, even from a prolific passing team.

 

 

 

[Patrick Duffy]

1 minute ago, Billz4ever said:

 

I don't think it was just Bills fans that were too high on him.  I think the entire organization had high hopes for him heading into this past season that he had grown into the roll and they all convinced themselves that he would.  It was wishful thinking.  

Can you blame them? He earned that opportunity and we all had high hopes, unfortunately it turned out to be a bit of a disappointment. It happens.