Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[Beck Water]

13 minutes ago, TRIP65 said:

50% catch rate, BIG long drops in hands, can't blame ankle for that, he was there and catch's were easy.

 

He blocks well but is 1 dimensional route runner WR. Not saying get rid of him but Shakir and the two other WR's picked up should be complete open competition for 2,3,4.

 

Shakir, Harty, Sherfield offer run after catch too.

 

I see Sherfield winning this out after Miami campaign.

 

Dude, if our competition for #2 receiver next year is between Davis, Shakir, and Sherfield all I can say is that Beane isn't paying attention to what's going on offensively.  Don't get me wrong, I think Sherfield is a totally reasonable pickup by Beane for $1.77M as a guy who may be a step up from Kumerow as the #5 WR who must contribute on ST and can maybe do a better job actually playing WR in case of injuries, or see the field as a downfield blocker.

 

Sherfield couldn't crack the lineup in AZ or SF.  Now I'll grant that in AZ, he was behind Fitzgerald then Hopkins, Christian Kirk, their TE, and Andy Isabella in whom they invested a 2nd round pick.  In SF, he was behind Deebo Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk and then Juan Jennings came on.  But still, we're talking about wanting to improve our WR talent to compete with the best in the league, so....if he can't beat out 7th rounder Juan Jennings, or Andy Isabella who looks like a 2nd round bust right now, that looks like a bit of a "maybe" to hang your hat on as a potential #2.

 

He had a reasonable year in Miami as the #3 WR behind two #1 WR who kept opposing DCs awake at night (Waddle and Hill), Good for Him.  We didn't think McKenzie's 423 yds on 42 receptions and 64.5% catch % on 54% of the snaps were good enough production for #3, so I assume we wouldn't have thought Sherfield's 417 yds on 30 receptions and 58.8% catch % on 60% of the snaps is enough.

 

As the saying goes "Maybes don't fly in September"

 

 

[TRIP65]

On 4/12/2023 at 2:37 PM, Beck Water said:

 

Dude, if our competition for #2 receiver next year is between Davis, Shakir, and Sherfield all I can say is that Beane isn't paying attention to what's going on offensively.  Don't get me wrong, I think Sherfield is a totally reasonable pickup by Beane for $1.77M as a guy who may be a step up from Kumerow as the #5 WR who must contribute on ST and can maybe do a better job actually playing WR in case of injuries, or see the field as a downfield blocker.

 

Sherfield couldn't crack the lineup in AZ or SF.  Now I'll grant that in AZ, he was behind Fitzgerald then Hopkins, Christian Kirk, their TE, and Andy Isabella in whom they invested a 2nd round pick.  In SF, he was behind Deebo Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk and then Juan Jennings came on.  But still, we're talking about wanting to improve our WR talent to compete with the best in the league, so....if he can't beat out 7th rounder Juan Jennings, or Andy Isabella who looks like a 2nd round bust right now, that looks like a bit of a "maybe" to hang your hat on as a potential #2.

 

He had a reasonable year in Miami as the #3 WR behind two #1 WR who kept opposing DCs awake at night (Waddle and Hill), Good for Him.  We didn't think McKenzie's 423 yds on 42 receptions and 64.5% catch % on 54% of the snaps were good enough production for #3, so I assume we wouldn't have thought Sherfield's 417 yds on 30 receptions and 58.8% catch % on 60% of the snaps is enough.

 

As the saying goes "Maybes don't fly in September"

 

 

First 400 yards on 42 receptions is NOT the same as 400 yards on 30 receptions. I do hope you understand That at least. Second, Hill was quoted as saying BIG loss. Third, starting QB was out MANY games, remember that? Josh miss any games?

 

In AZ the HC played the higher up draft picks. Sheffield beat them all out in Preseason but sat. Kind of like the WR we did that too who went to the Giants and was successful.

 

What WR in NFL Draft this year has same measurable's and has PROVEN it in the NFL with Experience?

 

Have you seen Buffalo's Cap space? -6mil with Lawson's number not in it and draft two weeks away. So Lawson will be around 1.7 mil. Need 3 mil for draft and 5 mil for Injuries. That is 17 mil Buffalo has to come up with right now before anyone else is added.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/tools/roster/buffalo-bills/

[Warriorspikes51]

If his ankles and hands would behave, he'd be a top WR2

[TRIP65]

5 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

If his ankles and hands would behave, he'd be a top WR2

BIG if

[Chaos]

This statistic may explain why we love Diggs, and don't like Davis so much.  This shows the differential between the Bills overall passer rating and the passer rating when each receiver is targeted. 

 

The top ten on this list surprised me a bit (min 40 targets). Maybe Jerry Jeudy is better than I give him credit for and I might be a bit sadder about Isaiah Hodges than I was before I ran these stats. 

[Nephilim17]

20 minutes ago, Chaos said:

This statistic may explain why we love Diggs, and don't like Davis so much.  This shows the differential between the Bills overall passer rating and the passer rating when each receiver is targeted. 

 

The top ten on this list surprised me a bit (min 40 targets). Maybe Jerry Jeudy is better than I give him credit for and I might be a bit sadder about Isaiah Hodges than I was before I ran these stats. 

Yikes. That's a huge disparity. I'm sure someone will say that we mostly throw to Davis deeper and that explains it but I don't think that's everything. You need your number two to put up better numbers than that.

Edited April 16, 2023 by Nephilim17

[Dopey]

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/sports/bills/value-of-gabe-davis

The Bills don't, but the mob here does. Don't forget, he's a mid 4th round pick and has made less than $1 million per season, on avg.,

brought in to complement Diggs, not take over for him. It's amazing how people here react when a player isn't a HOF player. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Dopey

[jethro_tull]

At 51.6% catch percentage last year it is hard to under appreciate his play.  

[HappyDays]

This meshes with every criticism of Davis. He only runs a small selection of routes at a high level. Anything that requires separating in small spaces he does at a below average level. That is not the skill set of a true #2 IMO.

 

And it's been a problem his whole career. From the article:

 

"He’s never cleared the 35th percentile in success rate vs. man, zone or press coverage in any of his three NFL seasons."

 

We have a less than 35th percentile WR as our full time #2... It's a HUGE limitation in this offense. The only hope is that Kincaid or someone else steps up and takes a bunch of Davis's targets away.

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

On 2/20/2023 at 9:42 AM, Chaos said:

Gabe Davis is a bit of an anomaly on the current Bills. His best play comes in the playoffs rather than the regular season.  

 

The reason I asking "Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?" is because Spotrac ranks him as having a higher market value than either Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver or Jordan Poyer. Spotrac bases is ranking on actual production vs comps.  No eye tests involved.  Based on production, the comps Spotrac sees for Davis are Christian Kirk, Russell Gage, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfrow.  For all of the discussion around Tremaine Edmunds being virtually a child in years, Davis is actually a year younger, and only 23  now.  He will be the same age as Edmunds when he becomes a free agent next year. 

 

 

I once remember a poster on here saying he expects our #2 WR to put up 1,000+ yards, double digit TD. I did a 3 minute google search and came to find out that no WR2 hit those marks unless they had a QB on a rookie contract but a few teams came close. So the expectations are a bit unrealistic imo, I wonder though if Gabe didn't have the drops that he did would this be an issue? Or would some still think he's a mediocre #2 WR.

[The Wiz]

8 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

 

I once remember a poster on here saying he expects our #2 WR to put up 1,000+ yards, double digit TD. I did a 3 minute google search and came to find out that no WR2 hit those marks unless they had a QB on a rookie contract but a few teams came close. So the expectations are a bit unrealistic imo, I wonder though if Gabe didn't have the drops that he did would this be an issue? Or would some still think he's a mediocre #2 WR.

If he was at 65% (was at 51.6%) catch rate last year, he would have made 12 more receptions of the 93 targets and likely would have had 208.8 more yards putting him at 1044.8 yards on the season (possibly adding another TD or 2).

 

The yards and TDs are great, but the drop rate really is the big issue/concern with most fans.

Edited June 16, 2023 by The Wiz

[Jauronimo]

56 minutes ago, The Wiz said:

If he was at 65% (was at 51.6%) catch rate last year, he would have made 12 more receptions of the 93 targets and likely would have had 208.8 more yards putting him at 1044.8 yards on the season (possibly adding another TD or 2).

 

The yards and TDs are great, but the drop rate really is the big issue/concern with most fans.

A few of those drops were potential game winners and not overly difficult plays to make.  

[Nextmanup]

[mrags]

8 hours ago, Jauronimo said:

A few of those drops were potential game winners and not overly difficult plays to make.  

Which is opposite of what I recall him being his first 2 seasons. He was super dependable with big moments on the line. Specifically thinking of the Colts playoff game. He came up with a couple catches that really won that game for us. I remember others but those sideline catches that game were amazing. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This meshes with every criticism of Davis. He only runs a small selection of routes at a high level. Anything that requires separating in small spaces he does at a below average level. That is not the skill set of a true #2 IMO.

 

And it's been a problem his whole career. From the article:

 

"He’s never cleared the 35th percentile in success rate vs. man, zone or press coverage in any of his three NFL seasons."

 

We have a less than 35th percentile WR as our full time #2... It's a HUGE limitation in this offense. The only hope is that Kincaid or someone else steps up and takes a bunch of Davis's targets away.

Can you define true #2? Separating in small spaces has little to do with an outside WR. That is what your slot WR does.

I really don't think this board understands the Bills offense at all. 

Davis is an excellent WR who had too many drops last year. Had he made a few more catches he would have had elite numbers as an outside deep threat.  And this was with an injured ankle.

I also have to believe if Davis made that catch against the Jets on the desperation bomb at the end of the game this entire discussion would be different. 

[BADOLBILZ]

58 minutes ago, mrags said:

Which is opposite of what I recall him being his first 2 seasons. He was super dependable with big moments on the line. Specifically thinking of the Colts playoff game. He came up with a couple catches that really won that game for us. I remember others but those sideline catches that game were amazing. 

 

Some fans don't realize how much of a curve they graded Gabe on because he was a rookie.   After that 4 catch game against Indy he had 0 catches on 7 targets in the next 2 games.   He's never been particularly sure handed and as the receiving corps has diminished Gabe has become a more featured target and he has had to play against CB's who are higher on their teams depth charts.   And that's exposed weaknesses that were always there. 

 

The way to make Gabe a feel good story again is to knock him down to being receiving option 3 or 4 on the chart again.

[BADOLBILZ]

45 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

Can you define true #2? Separating in small spaces has little to do with an outside WR. That is what your slot WR does.

I really don't think this board understands the Bills offense at all. 

Davis is an excellent WR who had too many drops last year. Had he made a few more catches he would have had elite numbers as an outside deep threat.  And this was with an injured ankle.

I also have to believe if Davis made that catch against the Jets on the desperation bomb at the end of the game this entire discussion would be different. 

 

 

Again.......Gabe Davis was 186th in catch % in the NFL......the lowest of any heavily targeted receiver(Jets bust Corey Davis was a lower % but on almost 50% less targets).

 

And Gabe had the league's highest drop % for a WR at almost 10%.    That's horrible and it wasn't just the outright drops.........he's generally bad when contested.......which is the even larger issue now that he is facing better CB's.

 

And enough with the ankle injury talk..........like Harmon said he's been largely the same player for all of his career........and that should not surprising because he first injured it in his rookie season and played the Indy playoff game where he had the 4 catches with the bad foot and the injury has just kept recurring each season.      

 

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

55 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

The way to make Gabe a feel good story again is to knock him down to being receiving option 3 or 4 on the chart again.

 

I agree. But he's still likely the starting #2 outside receiver. But he should be behind Knox or Kincaid in targets and maybe tied with our slot receiver. Gabe can possibly be a long-term solution for the #2 receiver spot. He just shouldn't be the second most targeted pass catcher. Gabe was at his best as the #2 outside receiver when Diggs and Beasley were 1 and 2 in targets. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

20 hours ago, HappyDays said:

This meshes with every criticism of Davis. He only runs a small selection of routes at a high level. Anything that requires separating in small spaces he does at a below average level. That is not the skill set of a true #2 IMO.

 

And it's been a problem his whole career. From the article:

 

"He’s never cleared the 35th percentile in success rate vs. man, zone or press coverage in any of his three NFL seasons."

 

We have a less than 35th percentile WR as our full time #2... It's a HUGE limitation in this offense. The only hope is that Kincaid or someone else steps up and takes a bunch of Davis's targets away.

Now, I do believe Davis has some issues. Being consistent. Drops. Staying healthy. So what I'm about to say isn't meant to excuse any of that at all.

 

However, looking at this chart in addition to seeing a WR that doesn't run a full tree...I see a problem with the offensive coordinator. This chart shows Davis struggling to have success with digs and curls. Yet they are among the highest % of routes he's asked to run. He's shown some degree of success on out routes...but those are among the lowest % he's asked to run. To my eyes at least it looks like a case of a coach trying to fit a guy into his system rather that adjusting his system to fit the players. And this is a common thing with inexperienced coordinators.

 

Yes, I would love to see the Bills have a WR2 that can run the whole route tree with success. However sometimes you have to tweak what you do based on the players you have.

[Mr. WEO]

49 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Now, I do believe Davis has some issues. Being consistent. Drops. Staying healthy. So what I'm about to say isn't meant to excuse any of that at all.

 

However, looking at this chart in addition to seeing a WR that doesn't run a full tree...I see a problem with the offensive coordinator. This chart shows Davis struggling to have success with digs and curls. Yet they are among the highest % of routes he's asked to run. He's shown some degree of success on out routes...but those are among the lowest % he's asked to run. To my eyes at least it looks like a case of a coach trying to fit a guy into his system rather that adjusting his system to fit the players. And this is a common thing with inexperienced coordinators.

 

Yes, I would love to see the Bills have a WR2 that can run the whole route tree with success. However sometimes you have to tweak what you do based on the players you have.

 

Missed 2 games in 3 years.  got nearly 1000 yards total last season despite high ankle sprain in September...