Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[dave mcbride]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Having watched a bunch of those throws, I disagree.

 

One INT, in the Jets game, Josh threw to a spot where Davis wasn't.  Josh took responsibility, and clearly one of them was wrong about where Davis should be, but I don't think we can know who it was.

Steelers game - DB was between Davis and the ball, in perfect position to jump it - could argue that Josh expected Davis to run his route differently, one of them wrong

 

The other 4, were balls that should not have been thrown. 

GB game - Josh dirted the ball yards short of Davis on one, on the other made an off-target throw back to the middle of the field, intercepted miles before it got to Davis.  Two bad throws that shouldn't havebeen made.

Vikings game - Bad throw way short of Davis with defender between Davis and the ball.  Defender jumped the route.

NE game -  dangerous throw intercepted by McCourty way short of Davis, should not have been thrown, nothing Davis could have done

 

There are two reasons why INTs are occuring at an anomalous rate.  One is that the WR is making mistakes or not being sure-handed with the ball, like the ball that bounced off Beasley's chest into a defender's hands in the MIA playoff game.  The others are that the QB is making bad decisions or bad throws, or that the team's self-scouting on what plays they call in different situations is poor, and defenders anomalously know what's coming.

 

I'd add that the pick on the Beasley throw in the playoff game was perfectly defended (deflected at the point of reception too) and on the QB. As you'll recall, on the play before Allen missed Beasley badly in the middle of the field. I turned to my wife and son and said, "he's going to force the next pass to Beasley come hell or high water." It's a thing he does. I love the faith he has in his receivers and his desire to do right by them, but clearly, the Dolphins saw it coming too. 

Edited March 31, 2023 by dave mcbride

[Beck Water]

17 minutes ago, dave mcbride said:

I'd add that the pick on the Beasley throw in the playoff game was perfectly defended (deflected at the point of reception too) and on the QB. As you'll recall, on the play before Allen missed Beasley badly in the middle of the field. I turned to my wife and son and said, "he's going to force the next pass to Beasley come hell or high water." It's a thing he does. I love the faith he has in his receivers and his desire to do right by them, but clearly, the Dolphins saw it coming too. 

 

We'll have to agree to disagree there.  I think Beasley was being held before the ball got there, and should have played the ball differently - extended his hands for the catch instead of trying to body-catch it, possibly taken a step towards the throw - both of which might have made the holding more obvious to the refs.  Josh was forcing it a bit, but not outrageous like some of his other INTs.

 

But, IMHO, the majority of Josh's INTs were far more on Josh than on the WR, poor decisions or poor throws.  And I don't say this because I'm historically easy on WR and hard on Josh - to the contrary.

Edited March 31, 2023 by Beck Water

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

Having watched a bunch of those throws, I disagree.

 

One INT, in the Jets game, Josh threw to a spot where Davis wasn't.  Josh took responsibility, and clearly one of them was wrong about where Davis should be, but I don't think we can know who it was.

Steelers game - DB was between Davis and the ball, in perfect position to jump it - could argue that Josh expected Davis to run his route differently, one of them wrong

 

The other 4, were balls that should not have been thrown. 

GB game - Josh dirted the ball yards short of Davis on one, on the other made an off-target throw back to the middle of the field, intercepted miles before it got to Davis.  Two bad throws that shouldn't havebeen made.

Vikings game - Bad throw way short of Davis with defender between Davis and the ball.  Defender jumped the route.

NE game -  dangerous throw intercepted by McCourty way short of Davis, should not have been thrown, nothing Davis could have done

 

There are two reasons why INTs are occuring at an anomalous rate.  One is that the WR is making mistakes or not being sure-handed with the ball, like the ball that bounced off Beasley's chest into a defender's hands in the MIA playoff game.  The others are that the QB is making bad decisions or bad throws, or that the team's self-scouting on what plays they call in different situations is poor, and defenders anomalously know what's coming.

 

Yes I watched them too. He didn't 'dirt' the ball short of Davis in the GB game, he threw him low in scramble drill like you're supposed to and Davis gave up on the play while the ball was in the air allowing Jaire Alexander to get around him.

 

We don't have to go this far to justify Davis' below average play. He needs to get better.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Yes I watched them too. He didn't 'dirt' the ball short of Davis in the GB game, he threw him low in scramble drill like you're supposed to and Davis gave up on the play while the ball was in the air allowing Jaire Alexander to get around him.

 

We don't have to go this far to justify Davis' below average play. He needs to get better.

 

I don't disagree that Davis needs to get better.

 

Josh stated after the game that he was trying to "dirt" the ball to throw it away.  Why would he say that if it were a "normal" low throw?

 

We will have to agree to disagree on your interpretation of what happened on that play.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't disagree that Davis needs to get better.

 

Josh stated after the game that he was trying to "dirt" the ball to throw it away.  Why would he say that if it were a "normal" low throw?

 

We will have to agree to disagree on your interpretation of what happened on that play.

Because he isn't going to come out and say Davis needs to fight for that pass. 

[Chaos]

14 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Because he isn't going to come out and say Davis needs to fight for that pass. 

It appears that Allen is by far the best “teammate” in Bills history.  He is like 10 wins above replacement but never ***** about crap protection , second rate offensive weapons and HC/DC/defense choking.  So he becomes a lightning rod for ridiculous criticisms. He is the only player in the NFL judged against “perfect”

on a regular basis. 

Edited March 31, 2023 by Chaos

[Snappysnackcakes]

If Gabe played through a high ankle sprain early in the season, as Beane mentioned recently then yes, we ALL under appreciate the man. I had the misfortune of having one of those in high school. Oh my God. Me trying to describe it wouldn’t do it justice. He’s a man. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

When it’s all said and done Davis will have an Emmanuel Sanders type of career. He’ll string together a few 1000+ yard seasons, but I think he will consistently hover around that 800-900 mark w/ an annual 6-8 TDs which is NOT bad. I definitely think he is under appreciated on this board. The Diggs/Davis combo is one of the statistical bests in the league. No, he is no Jaylen Waddle or Tee Higgins. If Buffalo can find a guy of that caliber then pull the trigger. For now I am happy w/ Davis. I don’t think the book is closed on career and I expect a nice bounce back season along w/ Dawson Knox. 

[Dopey]

With Edmunds gone, I think you guys found your new whipping boy. Have at it. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

But, IMHO, the majority of Josh's INTs were far more on Josh than on the WR, poor decisions or poor throws.  And I don't say this because I'm historically easy on WR and hard on Josh - to the contrary.

 

Was there ever an explanation on the first INT in the first Jets game? That one still has me baffled. 

10 minutes ago, Dopey said:

With Edmunds gone, I think you guys found your new whipping boy. Have at it. 

 

Davis has been at least Edmunds equal as whipping boy since around mid-season last year. Top two whipping boys currently are Davis and Dorsey. 

Edited April 1, 2023 by Sammy Watkins' Rib

[gonzo1105]

He’s the type of WR who will be a 2 here, have a good year. Some team will pay him to be a 1 and he’ll be a failure 

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, Chaos said:

It appears that Allen is by far the best “teammate” in Bills history.  He is like 10 wins above replacement but never ***** about crap protection , second rate offensive weapons and HC/DC/defense choking.  So he becomes a lightning rod for ridiculous criticisms. He is the only player in the NFL judged against “perfect”

on a regular basis. 

 

In fairness one of Josh's great strengths and probably the reason he is who he is - he judges HIMSELF against perfect. Nobody needs to tell Josh when he has screwed up. If anything at times I think he is too hard on himself. Certainly earlier in his career he would beat himself up after mistakes to the extent he would press too much. It still happens occasionally but he has got much better at moving on to the next play. But Josh expects perfection from himself and he isn't satisfied when he doesn't attain it.

[Chaos]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In fairness one of Josh's great strengths and probably the reason he is who he is - he judges HIMSELF against perfect. Nobody needs to tell Josh when he has screwed up. If anything at times I think he is too hard on himself. Certainly earlier in his career he would beat himself up after mistakes to the extent he would press too much. It still happens occasionally but he has got much better at moving on to the next play. But Josh expects perfection from himself and he isn't satisfied when he doesn't attain it.

Fortunately the GM and Coach both found time and occassion in the off season to callout Allen for his aggressive running style. Because that is why the Bills can't get past the division round of playoff games.  

Edited April 1, 2023 by Chaos

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

He’s the type of WR who will be a 2 here, have a good year. Some team will pay him to be a 1 and he’ll be a failure 

 

That's what could have happened.

 

He's the modern Alvin Harper type for sure.

 

Back in the early 90's very few teams had 2 solid CB's...........the Bills made it to 4 straight SB's with only 1 of them..........so if you had a stud RB and stud WR1 your WR2 could EAT.    Which Alvin Harper did and he then got PAID to be WR1 in Tampa and to this day remains their worst UFA signing ever.

 

Today,  there are a lot more dudes in the secondary........and all those stud offensive players gotta' be receiving targets in order for the 3rd best offensive player to get the favorable matchups in the secondary.

 

Davis moving to WR2 by his lonesome doubly exposed him because he often had to face CB1's as teams chose to double Diggs with CB2.    If Davis had hit free agency after the 2021 season he would likely have surpassed the Christian Kirk contract numbers and been a Harper-esque bust.

 

If he had hit UFA after getting fully exposed this past season he would have been lucky to get the deal Marques Valdes-Scantling got in KC.

 

 

[Commish]

Great analysis by Locked On Bills of Gabe Davis just released. Bottom line, he lacks the skill set needed to get open on short and intermediate route, and he's got poor hands:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DuKno8cC2E

[Dr. Who]

5 hours ago, Commish said:

Great analysis by Locked On Bills of Gabe Davis just released. Bottom line, he lacks the skill set needed to get open on short and intermediate route, and he's got poor hands:

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DuKno8cC2E

Fair, balanced assessment: he's best at longer routes because it takes him time to build up speed. He's a "horizontal clapper" as a catcher which is inherently going to end up with more drops than if he set up a "catching diamond" to nestle the ball. He is good at putting himself in position to catch the ball, which is probably why folks get frustrated when it results in a relatively high drop rate. Marino thinks Davis is a great WR4 in a high volume passing offense. He's a mixed quality WR2 and most of his deficiencies are probably not going to be fixed just by Davis being healthy.

 

Aside: Marino really does look like Josh Allen's pudgy brother.

[Dopey]

On 3/31/2023 at 11:29 AM, Beck Water said:

 

We'll have to agree to disagree there.  I think Beasley was being held before the ball got there, and should have played the ball differently - extended his hands for the catch instead of trying to body-catch it, possibly taken a step towards the throw - both of which might have made the holding more obvious to the refs.  Josh was forcing it a bit, but not outrageous like some of his other INTs.

 

But, IMHO, the majority of Josh's INTs were far more on Josh than on the WR, poor decisions or poor throws.  And I don't say this because I'm historically easy on WR and hard on Josh - to the contrary.

I agree, but let's be careful on this board. I don't think we're allowed to criticize Josh. 🤷‍♂️

[TRIP65]

On 2/20/2023 at 9:46 AM, GunnerBill said:

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

50% catch rate, BIG long drops in hands, can't blame ankle for that, he was there and catch's were easy.

 

He blocks well but is 1 dimensional route runner WR. Not saying get rid of him but Shakir and the two other WR's picked up should be complete open competition for 2,3,4.

 

Shakir, Harty, Sherfield offer run after catch too.

 

I see Sherfield winning this out after Miami campaign.

 

The end, I see Diggs, Sherfield as main guys with Shakir at Slot. Davis in on run downs to block as number 2 guy. Going deep, Harty comes in slot 3rd and long with TE out there.

We have SPEED now in WR's and RB's. Teams will not be able to pack 8 in box anymore. Look for a lot more inside plays with many more run after catch TD's

 

 

 

 

[TRIP65]

On 4/1/2023 at 1:51 PM, BADOLBILZ said:

 

That's what could have happened.

 

He's the modern Alvin Harper type for sure.

 

Back in the early 90's very few teams had 2 solid CB's...........the Bills made it to 4 straight SB's with only 1 of them..........so if you had a stud RB and stud WR1 your WR2 could EAT.    Which Alvin Harper did and he then got PAID to be WR1 in Tampa and to this day remains their worst UFA signing ever.

 

Today,  there are a lot more dudes in the secondary........and all those stud offensive players gotta' be receiving targets in order for the 3rd best offensive player to get the favorable matchups in the secondary.

 

Davis moving to WR2 by his lonesome doubly exposed him because he often had to face CB1's as teams chose to double Diggs with CB2.    If Davis had hit free agency after the 2021 season he would likely have surpassed the Christian Kirk contract numbers and been a Harper-esque bust.

 

If he had hit UFA after getting fully exposed this past season he would have been lucky to get the deal Marques Valdes-Scantling got in KC.

 

 

Bills in the 90's always had great Safeties and Nickles. Bills to date just got two great CB's possible. few teams can pay for two Top CB's.

 

No difference except use of running back.

 

Bills had Reed, Lofton, Beebe outside. TE's, McKellar and Metzelaars. Add Thomas, that TEAM would destroy today's defenses.

 

Kelly would use Thomas screens and draws cause no one could stay in the box with WR/TE talent. Cut back runner is the key, can't tackle Thomas in the open. Stout enough to run inside for 4 yards. One of the best ever catch RB's too. Tied Jim Brown years in a row all Purpose Yards in NFL.

 

Now, Josh is a different breed than anyone but maybe Elway early on. But even Josh is a much better Athlete. Young and Mahomes a lot alike.

 

You have to incorporate running game. You get up, you need to run out the clock and maintain possession. Bad weather, need to RUN. Team with good pass defense, need Play Action, screens.

 

Bills are set up for this now with Cook/Harris. Let's see how SMART Dorsey is!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[TRIP65]

On 3/30/2023 at 9:23 AM, Dr. Who said:

What do you make of the argument that deficiencies at slot were what really caused more problems? If so, are you satisfied Shakir and Harty, perhaps, sufficiently address that issue? I surmise Downs could be a superior slot receiver (he's my fourth wr, but the only one likely to be available for the Bills to select imo.) What do you think about grabbing a fella like Kayshon Boutte later in the draft as a possible wr2 candidate down the road?

No rookie in this draft class is beating out Sherfield, Shakir, Harty or Davis. Even if drafted 1st round, McDermott doesn't view Rookies that way unless a MUST. We have plenty of WR options, speed and run after the catch. Also proof what we have can play in NFL except for really Shakir. Shakir has a year in NFL though and knows now what it takes.

 

Sherfield is the GUY. 6'1" fast, great hands and can run after the catch. He will be Hybrid slot/long WR that Andre Reed was. That also will free Diggs long cause the best CB will be on Diggs alone.  Sherfield will get safety, have to watch cause of the run after catch.

 

Shakir and Davis will fight for WR three.

 

Harty will have WR4 no matter what, he is a smaller but faster Sherfield and will reek havoc like Hill on the field.

 

People are underestimating what Beane has done here. All 3 RB's have speed and can take it to the Top. So can Sherfield, Harty and Shakir.

 

With the Middle shored up, Josh can deliver quick screens, Tackles are good enough to HOLD for 3 secs.