Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, Jay_Fixit said:

It is a bad comparison. Shaw’s

last few posts are just him writing words.

 

you know, I can 100% be on board with someone who disagrees, but if you don't buy in to Gunner and Shaw's Mike Williams comparison - give it its propers that theyr'e trying to craft a comparison, it's not just "writing words".

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Mike williams also got  a ton more catches on the same number of targets. He's much more reliable. The yardage is mostly imo due to chargers offense not targeting him as deep as Allen does Davis. 

 

Your #2 guy needs to be reliable

 

But that kind of gets to my point about, "what are the Bills ASKING Davis to do?"

 

If they're asking him to be their chain mover....he's failing

 

If they're asking him to be their lower percentage "deep guy", then maybe he's doing what's asked and the real problem is the lack of a reliable "chain mover", which the Bills weren't asking Davis to be

[Jay_Fixit]

11 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

you know, I can 100% be on board with someone who disagrees, but if you don't buy in to Gunner and Shaw's Mike Williams comparison - give it its propers that theyr'e trying to craft a comparison, it's not just "writing words".

 

But that kind of gets to my point about, "what are the Bills ASKING Davis to do?"

 

If they're asking him to be their chain mover....he's failing

 

If they're asking him to be their lower percentage "deep guy", then maybe he's doing what's asked and the real problem is the lack of a reliable "chain mover", which the Bills weren't asking Davis to be

As I posted previously, the Mike Williams comparison was bad. Only because it was though.

 

My original post about Davis is all this thread needs. He needs to do more. It’s not hard to comprehend.

 

 

16 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Mike williams also got  a ton more catches on the same number of targets. He's much more reliable. The yardage is mostly imo due to chargers offense not targeting him as deep as Allen does Davis. 

 

Your #2 guy needs to be reliable

GoBills always gets it.

[GoBills808]

26 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

you know, I can 100% be on board with someone who disagrees, but if you don't buy in to Gunner and Shaw's Mike Williams comparison - give it its propers that theyr'e trying to craft a comparison, it's not just "writing words".

 

But that kind of gets to my point about, "what are the Bills ASKING Davis to do?"

 

If they're asking him to be their chain mover....he's failing

 

If they're asking him to be their lower percentage "deep guy", then maybe he's doing what's asked and the real problem is the lack of a reliable "chain mover", which the Bills weren't asking Davis to be

I don't know what the Bills are asking him to do but I have to imagine they're expecting more out of the position. Mike Williams is actually the third option in that offense behind Keenan Allen and Ekeler, so by comparing Davis' stats to Williams it actually more of a case that Davis is better suited to a WR3 role.

[Beck Water]

22 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know what the Bills are asking him to do but I have to imagine they're expecting more out of the position. Mike Williams is actually the third option in that offense behind Keenan Allen and Ekeler, so by comparing Davis' stats to Williams it actually more of a case that Davis is better suited to a WR3 role.

 

And that’s a fair assessment

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

I don't know what the Bills are asking him to do but I have to imagine they're expecting more out of the position. Mike Williams is actually the third option in that offense behind Keenan Allen and Ekeler, so by comparing Davis' stats to Williams it actually more of a case that Davis is better suited to a WR3 role.

All that needs to be said is in the top 30 WR's last season by ADOT,  Gabe is

 

top 6 in drop%

bottom 13 in passer rating

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

All that needs to be said is in the top 30 WR's last season by ADOT,  Gabe is

 

top 6 in drop%

bottom 13 in passer rating

Also anecdotally it seemed like a lot of Allen's picks were Davis targets but don't quote me on that

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Also anecdotally it seemed like a lot of Allen's picks were Davis targets but don't quote me on that

6 of them. Tied for 2nd in league, along with guys who saw a TON of targets, way more than Davis.

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Also anecdotally it seemed like a lot of Allen's picks were Davis targets but don't quote me on that

Even more startling, Bills specifically:

 

The only Bills players that Josh had a worse passer rating than Gabe when targeting were Moss, Cook, Gentry (1 target), and Crowder.

 

Josh had 6 picks targeting Gabe. 8 to the rest of the team COMBINED.

 

Gabe had one more drop than Diggs on 60 less targets.

 

Gabe only had a better YAC/R than McKenzie, Smoke (1 catch), Beasley.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

Also anecdotally it seemed like a lot of Allen's picks were Davis targets but don't quote me on that

 

No anecdote needed.  It’s factually documented by pro-football-reference

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022_advanced.htm

6 while targeting Davis, 3 targeting Knox, 2 targeting McKenzie

 

But, is that on Davis, or on Allen for forcing the ball in there?  Or somewhat on Dorsey for not realizing that play ha been ing nosed by D’s and he needed to put it in the back of the playbook?  I’m going with most were more on some combination of Allen and Dorsey.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

 

 I find it fitting that Gabe’s Birthday is on April Fools Day.

[Jay_Fixit]

26 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

No anecdote needed.  It’s factually documented by pro-football-reference

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022_advanced.htm

6 while targeting Davis, 3 targeting Knox, 2 targeting McKenzie

 

But, is that on Davis, or on Allen for forcing the ball in there?  Or somewhat on Dorsey for not realizing that play ha been ing nosed by D’s and he needed to put it in the back of the playbook?  I’m going with most were more on some combination of Allen and Dorsey.

I mean, it may be on Allen. But that’s because he probably expects more of Davis. And he’s consistently underwhelming. So in essence, it’s on Davis.

[GoBills808]

47 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

No anecdote needed.  It’s factually documented by pro-football-reference

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/buf/2022_advanced.htm

6 while targeting Davis, 3 targeting Knox, 2 targeting McKenzie

 

But, is that on Davis, or on Allen for forcing the ball in there?  Or somewhat on Dorsey for not realizing that play ha been ing nosed by D’s and he needed to put it in the back of the playbook?  I’m going with most were more on some combination of Allen and Dorsey.

It's almost certainly more on Davis

 

Forcing throws to wideouts is part of an NFL quarterback's repertoire.  They shouldn't be ending up as INTs at an anomalous rate 

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, Jay_Fixit said:

None of those things matter. None of them.

 

A #2 WR and all the expectations that go with it has nothing to do with draft position or contract. 
 

Davis could have been undrafted for all that matters. The fact of the matter is he’s just not really good at being a #2 and an upgrade should be considered.

My point was why is anyone comparing the expectations of Davis to Williams? There’s a reason he’s a 4th round pick and made less than $4 million total in 4 yrs. If he was undrafted, my expectations would be even less. Again, a 4th round pick brought in to supplement our #1 wr vs a guy drafted #7 overall to be the #1. That’s what I was talking about. 

[Jay_Fixit]

41 minutes ago, Dopey said:

My point was why is anyone comparing the expectations of Davis to Williams? There’s a reason he’s a 4th round pick and made less than $4 million total in 4 yrs. If he was undrafted, my expectations would be even less. Again, a 4th round pick brought in to supplement our #1 wr vs a guy drafted #7 overall to be the #1. That’s what I was talking about. 

Because he’s supposed to be a #2 receiver. That’s why. 
 

 

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, BananaB said:

Mike Williams is another inconsistent WR. The thing is, he has more highs than he does lows and Gabe is the opposite. Mike has 5 games under 70 yards to Gabes 10, 5 games under 50 yards to Gabes 9, and 5 games under 40 to Gabes 8…. Mike wasn’t held for under 70 yards in back to back weeks all season where Gabe was held under 50 in back to back games numerous times. At the end of the season he had was held under 60 yards for 6 straight weeks, and he only eclipsed 40 twice over that stretch. To be honest, looking this over this is just another poor comparison. 

 

He is. Like most WR2s. That is the point. His highs are higher. His lows are lower. That is the point. Most of them have significant varience.

[Dopey]

10 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

Because he’s supposed to be a #2 receiver. That’s why. 
 

 

Who are you referring to, Davis or Williams? 
You know what, never mind. 

[BananaB]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He is. Like most WR2s. That is the point. His highs are higher. His lows are lower. That is the point. Most of them have significant varience.

I don’t understand your point because Williams is still more consistent and more productive. Are you trying to say it’s ok for Gabe because Mike has a few bad games as well? Its not. Williams has a handful of bad games during the season while Gabe has a handful of good ones. They are basically opposites. Still a very bad comparison 

Edited March 31, 2023 by BananaB

[Dr. Who]

I'll concede Davis is a low-end 2. Before last season, lot of folks thought the KC playoff game presaged a breakout season. I wanted to trade up for Jameson Williams because I thought Davis was injury prone and too erratic. I don't know how much the injury to Josh's elbow altered game plans. Conjecture all you wish to justify Davis as an adequate 2. There are a few here who think he is fine or at least acceptable. What I think should not be debatable is somewhere you need to find a more consistent, dominant threat to compliment Diggs. Maybe that's Knox or a running game that incorporates the pass catching abilities of a fella like Cook. Maybe it's much better play out of the slot, but it has to come from somewhere so that you can't just focus on Diggs as the single dangerous weapon -- and yes, a subpar oline and rookie OC surely contributed. The fix involves sufficient remedy for all that. 

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, BananaB said:

I don’t understand your point because Williams is still more consistent and more productive. Are you trying to say it’s ok for Gabe because Mike has a few bad games as well? Its not. Williams has a handful of bad games during the season while Gabe has a handful of good ones. They are basically opposites. Still a very bad comparison 

 

My point is very simple - high levels of variance are common among #2 wide receivers.... that point is proven. Add to that 3 out of 4 100 yard games Williams had were when he was the #1 in Keenan Allen's absence. 

 

I am not arguing Gabe is better than Williams. Or that the Bills shouldn't be trying to upgrade Gabe. But your point on consistency only makes sense if Gabe is considerably less consistent than his peers and he is not. He isn't as good as a lot of other #2s.... but that is a different point. His inconsistency is common among #2 receivers because their usage is so dependant on other factors - game plan, opposition coverage assignments etc. 

[Beck Water]

12 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

It's almost certainly more on Davis

 

Forcing throws to wideouts is part of an NFL quarterback's repertoire.  They shouldn't be ending up as INTs at an anomalous rate 

 

Having watched a bunch of those throws, I disagree.

 

One INT, in the Jets game, Josh threw to a spot where Davis wasn't.  Josh took responsibility, and clearly one of them was wrong about where Davis should be, but I don't think we can know who it was.

Steelers game - DB was between Davis and the ball, in perfect position to jump it - could argue that Josh expected Davis to run his route differently, one of them wrong

 

The other 4, were balls that should not have been thrown. 

GB game - Josh dirted the ball yards short of Davis on one, on the other made an off-target throw back to the middle of the field, intercepted miles before it got to Davis.  Two bad throws that shouldn't havebeen made.

Vikings game - Bad throw way short of Davis with defender between Davis and the ball.  Defender jumped the route.

NE game -  dangerous throw intercepted by McCourty way short of Davis, should not have been thrown, nothing Davis could have done

 

There are two reasons why INTs are occuring at an anomalous rate.  One is that the WR is making mistakes or not being sure-handed with the ball, like the ball that bounced off Beasley's chest into a defender's hands in the MIA playoff game.  The others are that the QB is making bad decisions or bad throws, or that the team's self-scouting on what plays they call in different situations is poor, and defenders anomalously know what's coming.