Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[HappyDays]

 

[BananaB]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Diggs and Davis had more yards than Chase and Higgins, so what does it really matter?  

 

Davis had 9 games under 50 yards. Higgins had 6.   Every number 2 has some non-productive days.

 

These splits you guys are relying on are pretty meaningless.

So Gabe is consistently under 50 while Higgins is over.  Sounds right, Gabes as inconsistent as you can get. 

[Warcodered]

6 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think we should maybe throw the ball to Knox more.

[Shaw66]

Just now, Nephilim17 said:

Well, I've looked at the top-10 receiver duos in the league and Davis' numbers stick out as the worst for consistency with maybe the exception of 32-year-old Thielen in Minny — and with Cousins throwing to him. 

 

Also, and I think this is huge, we have a top-3 QB in Allen so I don't want our number two guy posting merely acceptable or average numbers — I want him to have dominant numbers as a reflection of who is throwing to him.

 

I — and many others — strongly disagree that Davis' numbers are "the nature of random numbers." Some athletes are streaky and others are consistent. I think consistency is a huge virtue as a number two guy because there will be games and teams who figure out how to minimize Diggs — and that's when we need the number two guy to step up. And what, God forbid, if Diggs gets hurt?

Belichick has been famous for taking away a team's top weapon and others will do it to us too. We need a guy that gives us a dependable high-end receiving weapon. Maybe that will be Knox (we need to throw to him more to find out) but until then, it has to be our number two WR.

I think most observers and fans here don't think that Davis is a high-end number two guy. You do and that's your right but many, including myself, think differently and want a replacement.    

 

 

Have you studied the game plans of every game where Davis went under 50 yards for the game?   Have you studied the defensive  alignments on every play to determine what defenses he faced?   Until you've done that, you can't convince me that Davis's inconsistency is based on Davis's limitations, because Davis is not the only person who determines whether Davis is open and whether Allen throws to him.   Have you studied Davis's blocking assignments on every play and graded his performance?    Until you've done that, I am NOT going to conclude that Davis is a problem because his 800+ receiving yards weren't spread across 15 games as evenly as you would like.  

 

The Bills were 7th in the league in passing yards per game, seventh in the league in passer rating, second in the league in passing touchdowns.   They were second in the league behind KC in total yards per game and total points per game.  KC's second receiver, Smith-Schuster, averaged 58+ yards per game, Davis averaged 55+.  Smith-Schuster had seven games below forty yards, three in a row, then two about 80, then three more in a row below forty. 

 

You guys get lost in these little data points and attach great meaning to them to support your subjective feelings because you remember some balls Davis dropped.   

 

Several years ago there was a debate that went on for weeks about how much better the Bills would be if Tyrod Taylor just threw over the middle more.   He was near the bottom of the league in throwing to the middle.  It was so much nonsense.   If he'd thrown over the middle the average number of times, that would have been less that two times a game more than he was throwing.   The stat simply did not translate into something meaningful, and these stats people are pointing to about Davis don't mean much, either. 

 

The Bills have a very good passing offense and excellent total offense.  Davis is a significant contributor to that offense.  To talk about replacing him is silly.  You're actually going to burn a first-round pick on a guy you want to be the #2 receiver, instead of an offensive lineman or a linebacker?   Really?   And don't say they can get a guy in the third.   Counting on a third rounder to start and put up 800 yards is a pipe dream.  

 

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Have you studied the game plans of every game where Davis went under 50 yards for the game?   Have you studied the defensive  alignments on every play to determine what defenses he faced?   Until you've done that, you can't convince me that Davis's inconsistency is based on Davis's limitations, because Davis is not the only person who determines whether Davis is open and whether Allen throws to him.   Have you studied Davis's blocking assignments on every play and graded his performance?    Until you've done that, I am NOT going to conclude that Davis is a problem because his 800+ receiving yards weren't spread across 15 games as evenly as you would like.  

 

The Bills were 7th in the league in passing yards per game, seventh in the league in passer rating, second in the league in passing touchdowns.   They were second in the league behind KC in total yards per game and total points per game.  KC's second receiver, Smith-Schuster, averaged 58+ yards per game, Davis averaged 55+.  Smith-Schuster had seven games below forty yards, three in a row, then two about 80, then three more in a row below forty. 

 

You guys get lost in these little data points and attach great meaning to them to support your subjective feelings because you remember some balls Davis dropped.   

 

Several years ago there was a debate that went on for weeks about how much better the Bills would be if Tyrod Taylor just threw over the middle more.   He was near the bottom of the league in throwing to the middle.  It was so much nonsense.   If he'd thrown over the middle the average number of times, that would have been less that two times a game more than he was throwing.   The stat simply did not translate into something meaningful, and these stats people are pointing to about Davis don't mean much, either. 

 

The Bills have a very good passing offense and excellent total offense.  Davis is a significant contributor to that offense.  To talk about replacing him is silly.  You're actually going to burn a first-round pick on a guy you want to be the #2 receiver, instead of an offensive lineman or a linebacker?   Really?   And don't say they can get a guy in the third.   Counting on a third rounder to start and put up 800 yards is a pipe dream.  

 

Lmao people in that Tyrod debate used to say he doesn’t need to throw over the middle more because he’s already really good and our franchise QB. 
 

 

Were you one of those people?

 

You draft a WR in the first because Diggs is no spring chicken and this is likely Davis’ last year in a Bills uni.

Edited March 29, 2023 by FireChans

[Shaw66]

13 minutes ago, BananaB said:

So Gabe is consistently under 50 while Higgins is over.  Sounds right, Gabes as inconsistent as you can get. 

As I just said, how do you know it's Davis and not the game plan?   Not the defense?   Not the situation?

 

When is the last time you saw pass receivers rated as good or bad based on their game consistency?   It is not a stat I've seen anywhere.   Why?   Because consistent receivers are not better than inconsistent receivers.  Productive receivers are better than nonproductive receivers, and Davis was 33rd in yards and 15th in touchdowns.  

 

And by the way, the games Davis was under 50, the Bills were 7-2.  Hard to say that his inconsistency is costing Bills games.  

[BananaB]

28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

As I just said, how do you know it's Davis and not the game plan?   Not the defense?   Not the situation?

 

When is the last time you saw pass receivers rated as good or bad based on their game consistency?   It is not a stat I've seen anywhere.   Why?   Because consistent receivers are not better than inconsistent receivers.  Productive receivers are better than nonproductive receivers, and Davis was 33rd in yards and 15th in touchdowns.  

 

And by the way, the games Davis was under 50, the Bills were 7-2.  Hard to say that his inconsistency is costing Bills games.  

You don’t think consistent WRs are more productive, long term I bet you’re wrong. If you’re not consistent and can’t be counted on you’re not gonna last long, why do you think Gabe is such a hot topic this off-season. Gabe got good yards and TDs but from game to game he’s below average. One blowout game he surpassed his average yards by 3x.  How often does that happen? Once a year if he’s lucky.  Does that make the other games less significant because he put up nice numbers in a blowout?  His inconsistencies stalled drives, missed points and led to some turnovers.  The overall numbers don’t mean ***** if you can’t be average on a game to game basis, and he wasn’t. Gabe was lucky the Bills had absolutely no other options last year to put in his spot. 
 

He was 186th in catch percentage, that’s just ***** terrible. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by BananaB

[FireChans]

21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

As I just said, how do you know it's Davis and not the game plan?   Not the defense?   Not the situation?

 

When is the last time you saw pass receivers rated as good or bad based on their game consistency?   It is not a stat I've seen anywhere.   Why?   Because consistent receivers are not better than inconsistent receivers.  Productive receivers are better than nonproductive receivers, and Davis was 33rd in yards and 15th in touchdowns.  

 

And by the way, the games Davis was under 50, the Bills were 7-2.  Hard to say that his inconsistency is costing Bills games.  

The gameplan was target Davis 10 times and him only catch 3 balls for 39 yards.

[ColoradoBills]

50 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

I think we should maybe throw the ball to Knox more.

 

Yes.  He needs at a minimum 2 more targets per game.

 

The other WR debate (which is part of the Davis debate) is the slot.

Fans want a top-notch slot receiver and I want the following.

 

Diggs, Harty, Shakir, Sherfield and Davis all can play inside and outside.

Diggs takes off about 25% of the offensive plays.  That's just the way he is.

Davis should have his total # of snaps diminished, especially if he can't prove to catch the ball better.

 

It seems to me that having a bigger rotation both on the outside and slot could be a real nightmare for opposing Ds.

Put pressure on the NCB or the zone area protecting against the slot receiver.

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, Warcodered said:

I think we should maybe throw the ball to Knox more.

Tell that to KD.  Our OL was so pathetic we had to leave him in there to block most of the 1st half of the season.  Dorsey needs to use the same receiver distribution game plan as he used against the Rams & Titans last year. Diggs had 4 tds and 24 targets. Yet JA distributed the ball to 7/8 different pass receivers in those games.  

Edited March 29, 2023 by LABILLBACKER

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, BananaB said:

You don’t think consistent WRs are more productive, long term I bet you’re wrong. If you’re not consistent and can’t be counted on you’re not gonna last long, why do you think Gabe is such a hot topic this off-season. Gabe got good yards and TDs but from game to game he’s below average. One blowout game he surpassed his average yards by 3x.  How often does that happen? Once a year if he’s lucky.  Does that make the other games less significant because he put up nice numbers in a blowout?  His inconsistencies stalled drives, missed points and led to some turnovers.  The overall numbers don’t mean ***** if you can’t be average on a game to game basis, and he wasn’t. Gabe was lucky the Bills had absolutely no other options last year to put in his spot. 
 

He was 186th in catch percentage, that’s just ***** terrible. 

I don't know on what basis you'd make that bet.   One of my principle points is that Davis's games under 50 yards are much too small a sample to say that he's inconsistent.   The variations in his yardage over one season of games simply isn't sufficient data to establish that he is "inconsistent.   Furthermore, as I said, until you know the play calls, the defenses, the game plan, etc., you can't know whether the Inconsistency you see is caused by Davis or other factors. 

 

Second, I don't have any reason to believe that consistency in this data is better in the long term.  I certainly know I want an inconsistent receiver who gets me 1200 yards over a consistent one who gets me 600.  That's a no brainer.   If I have two guys, one at 1200 and one at 1000, yes, I'll take the guy I can count on every day, but in between those two extremes, I don't know where the cut off point is.  What I do know is that Davis got a lot of yards last season, and that's valuable.  

 

You say his inconsistencies led to stalled drives, missed points and some turnovers.   I think that's nonsense until you prove it.   In the first place, as I said, the Bills were 7-2 in his games under 40 yards.  So, I only care about the two games the Bills lost.   And in those two games, you'd have to find the plays where he had drops or ran bad patterns that led to those things.   Do the research and come back with some actual data and we can talk. 

 

You guys seem to be ignorant of the fact - the fact - that the deeper  you go into fine tuned data, the less meaningful the data is.   When have you ever heard catch percentage cited as the measure of a good receiver?    It's a very important piece of data for coaches to start with, but it is only a starting point.   The number of times he caught the ball compared to the number of times he was targeted until you back out of Davis's totals - and every other receiver - all of the bad throws and all of the plays where he was double teamed and all of the plays where the corner made a good play on the ball.   After you've done that for all receivers, tell me where he stand in catch percentage, and then we'll have a stat that at least we can talk about.  

 

You want to talk about problems the Bills have, about things that really need to improve?   Talk to me about Dion Dawkins.  Talk to me about Spencer Brown.   The Bills have two starting wideouts and two starting tackles.   The #1 tackle is mediocre at best, and the #2 tackle probably was one of the worst right tackles in the league.   Davis wasn't close, nowhere near close to being the worst #2 wideout in the league.   

 

Beane says he has no worries about Davis.   I'll take his opinion over yours. 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Shaw66

[Shaw66]

So, I had to look at the catch percentage data.   I mean, who ever looks at that?   But I was curious.

 

Davis is 186th, at 51%.   See any other names under 60%?  I did.  

 

Names like Deebo Samuel, Courtland Sutton, Elijah Moore, Julio Jones, Davante Adams.   Maybe it's time for the 49ers to move on from Samuel.   

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Beane says he has no worries about Davis.   I'll take his opinion over yours. 

 

His actions say otherwise. He spent much of the end of last season trying to sign OBJ, and he said just a couple days ago they still aren't out on him. They've been heavily connected to DeAndre Hopkins. So Beane clearly is trying to find an upgrade to Davis, regardless of what he says.

 

This is similar to how he's been talking glowingly about Edmunds for a year now and made it sound like he was a definite extension priority. But his actions said otherwise. He always signs his cornerstone players early but let Edmunds make it to free agency.

 

Don't listen to Beane's words. Watch what he does. That will tell you his true opinion on the matter.

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by HappyDays

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

For anyone interested, here's some background explanation on these numbers.

It's basically a bit of a Frankenmetric, based upon someone observing each route and deciding if the receiver is open or not 0.2 seconds before the QB throws, and so forth so on for all 3 metrics (what was the hypothetical catch probability given some hypothetical WR and then + or - on that - if it was a gimmee 99% catch probability catch and the WR muffs it, big down-score; if it was a low probability circus catch, big up score).

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34649390/espn-receiver-tracking-metrics-how-new-nfl-stats-work-open-catch-yac-scores

 

I'm a simple Beck, and I like simple stats that anyone can measure, and that don't require vector analysis of position, direction, and velocity of all 22 defenders or whatever they do.  I can't put ESPN's total QBR frankenstat out of my mind.  But, if you like that sort of thing, There Ya Go.

 

For those who love it, or even just want to understand it, here are the numbers Walder refers to:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/

Diggs ratings: 83 open, 81 catch, 43 YAC / overall 83 (4th in the league behind AJ Brown, Jefferson, and Lockett

Knox ratings: 57 open,  48 catch, 34 YAC / overall 47 (73)

I. McKenzie: 62 open,  36 catch, 33 YAC / overall 43 (86)

Davis ratings: 45 open,  37 catch, 42 YAC / overall 37 (100)

(FTR, new WR Trent Sherfield scores 50/40/36//overall 43 (86).  Harty not enough playing time to score.)

Bills last season (Diggs, Knox, Davis): total 167 [Diggs Knox McKenzie would total 173, but Davis targeted much more]

 

Compare to Chiefs:

Travis Kelce ratings: 78 open, 65 catch, 50 YAC / overall 75 (10)

Juju Smith-Schuster: 49 open,  60 catch, 52 YAC / overall 56 (46)

Marquez Valdez-Scan: 26 open, 46 catch, 29 YAC/ overall 23 (110)

Chiefs last season (Kelce, SS, MVS): total 154

 

Bengals, total 217

Eagles, total 224

Dolphins, total 179

Giants, total 185

 

Anyway, I'm not sure this passes the "eye test" once you're past about the top 10 guys - do we really believe George Pickens is a better WR than Jamaar Chase, Davante Adams, and Deandre Hopkins?  Or that Isaiah Hodgins is a better WR than Adams, Hopkins, or Amon-Ra St Brown?  Which is how this lines 'em up. 

 

Enjoy, and believe it or don't.

 

 

Edited March 29, 2023 by Beck Water

[ColoradoBills]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

You guys seem to be ignorant of the fact - the fact - that the digger you go into fine tuned data, the less meaningful the data is.   When have you ever heard catch percentage cited as the measure of a good receiver?    It's a very important piece of data for coaches to start with, but it is only a starting point.   The number of times he caught the ball compared to the number of times he was targeted until you back out of Davis's totals - and every other receiver - all of the bad throws and all of the plays where he was double teamed and all of the plays where the corner made a good play on the ball.   After you've done that for all receivers, tell me where he stand in catch percentage, and then we'll have a stat that at least we can talk about. 

 

It's a need at OT.  Tommy Doyle is practically an unknown.  His 1 game last year was his total of snaps for the season.

Q is once again another 1 year JAG.

 

Dawkins, Brown and Doyle will all be in their last year of their contracts next season.

If Dawkins goes down and Brown doesn't improve Josh could be in big trouble.

 

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

His actions say otherwise. He spent much of the end of last season trying to sign OBJ, and he said just a couple days ago they still aren't out on him. They've been heavily connected to DeAndre Hopkins. So Beane clearly is trying to find an upgrade to Davis, regardless of what he says.

 

This is similar to how he's been talking glowingly about Edmunds for a year now and made it sound like he was a definite extension priority. But his actions said otherwise. He always signs his cornerstone players early but let Edmunds make it to free agency.

 

Don't listen to Beane's words. Watch what he does. That will tell you his true opinion on the matter.

 

These are two different things.   Some people here are saying Davis is inadequate and the Bills should move on.   Beane was responding to thoughts like that.  What he was saying was, effectively, that #2 receiver is not a hole in the lineup that he needs to fill. 

 

Talking about OBJ and Hopkins is something different.  Beane has said often that he always will consider opportunities to make the team better, so of course he actively considers stars like that who might be available.   Personally, I don't think either makes sense, because my first impression is that I wouldn't want to add another difficult personality to the receiver room.  That concern notwithstanding, I'd certainly be talking to them.  

 

Talking about moving on from Davis now just doesn't make sense.   This team wants to contend for a Lombardi, and they need a linebacker, a D tackle, an O tackle much more than they need a 200- or 300-yard upgrade at the #2 receiver.  And that's the other reason why, although Beane will look at Hopkins and OBJ, he's not likely to pull the trigger.  He has more important positions to spend his money on.  

[Maine-iac]

My guess is that if your average depth of target is over 15 yards you probably aren't open on every play.  You also aren't making easy routine catches that far down the field either.  His role is to keep teams defending deep passes.  If we had a decent slot receiver or used our TE or RB like other teams we would see more of the benefits of having Davis and Diggs outside.

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

These are two different things.   Some people here are saying Davis is inadequate and the Bills should move on.   Beane was responding to thoughts like that.  What he was saying was, effectively, that #2 receiver is not a hole in the lineup that he needs to fill. 

 

Talking about OBJ and Hopkins is something different.  Beane has said often that he always will consider opportunities to make the team better, so of course he actively considers stars like that who might be available.   Personally, I don't think either makes sense, because my first impression is that I wouldn't want to add another difficult personality to the receiver room.  That concern notwithstanding, I'd certainly be talking to them.  

 

Talking about moving on from Davis now just doesn't make sense.   This team wants to contend for a Lombardi, and they need a linebacker, a D tackle, an O tackle much more than they need a 200- or 300-yard upgrade at the #2 receiver.  And that's the other reason why, although Beane will look at Hopkins and OBJ, he's not likely to pull the trigger.  He has more important positions to spend his money on.  

 

Oh I don't want to move on from Davis this year. No need to do that, I would rather have as much talent as possible even though I expect him to walk in free agency next year.

 

But I also don't think he is truly good enough to be a full time #2 WR in this offense. His skill set makes him a perfect WR4 like he was in 2020. Beane gave him his shot after his divisional round performance in 2022, but now he is seemingly looking to upgrade him.

 

We need a #2 weapon similar to what the Eagles, the Chiefs, the Bengals, the 49ers had last year. Davis is a fine #2 for the middle tier of the NFL. We're competing with the top tier.

 

For what it's worth I don't think the Chiefs this year have a #2 worthy of competing with the top tier either, at least not yet, not since JuJu signed elsewhere. But they still have a great OL. The Bills don't even have that so we are desperate for one more piece of top talent if we hope to compete with the upper echelon.

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

For anyone interested, here's some background explanation on these numbers.

It's basically a bit of a Frankenmetric, based upon someone observing each route and deciding if the receiver is open or not 0.2 seconds before the QB throws, and so forth so on for all 3.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/34649390/espn-receiver-tracking-metrics-how-new-nfl-stats-work-open-catch-yac-scores

 

I'm a simple Beck, and I like simple stats that anyone can measure, and that don't require some kind of vector analysis of position, direction, and velocity of all 22 defenders.  I can't put ESPN's total QBR frankenstat out of my mind.  But, if you like that sort of thing, There Ya Go.

You know, Beck, there are millions of fans hooked on pro football.   Some of them are geeks like the guys at Pro Football Reference, who make all this data available.   Some of them are geeks like Football Outsiders, whose work I like, and some of them are geeks like PFF, whose work I don't like.   But I will tell you, quickly, that I can't really tell you whose data is useful and whose isn't.  What i do know is that data can be used for two different purposes.   One is to evaluate players for the purpose of figuring out how to work with them to improve.  That's an internal, coaching purpose.   The other purpose is to help fans try to figure out what teams are good and what players are good, to fuel discussions and to recognize greatness.  The first kind of data, the internal data, isn't particularly useful for the second purpose.   Why?   Because there is a low correlation of that data to greatness.  

 

Catch percentage is one of those internal-use numbers, and it's a number that doesn't correlate with greatness.   How do I know that?   Because I know that Gabriel Davis and Deebo Samuel and Davante Adams are NOT worse receivers than 150 other guys currently in the league.   That's ridiculous.   Receptions, yards, and touchdowns correlate with effectiveness, and those are the data that reasonable fans look to to determine the relative value of players.  

 

That triangular thing is cool, created by some geek to come up with some way compare receivers.   Looks cool, but I'm sure I don't a picture like that to know that Diggs is a better receiver than Knox and Davis. 

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Oh I don't want to move on from Davis this year. No need to do that, I would rather have as much talent as possible even though I expect him to walk in free agency next year.

 

But I also don't think he is truly good enough to be a full time #2 WR in this offense. His skill set makes him a perfect WR4 like he was in 2020. Beane gave him his shot after his divisional round performance in 2022, but now he is seemingly looking to upgrade him.

 

We need a #2 weapon similar to what the Eagles, the Chiefs, the Bengals, the 49ers had last year. Davis is a fine #2 for the middle tier of the NFL. We're competing with the top tier.

 

For what it's worth I don't think the Chiefs this year have a #2 worthy of competing with the top tier either, at least not yet, not since JuJu signed elsewhere. But they still have a great OL. The Bills don't even have that so we are desperate for one more piece of top talent if we hope to compete with the upper echelon.

Yeah, I don't have any major quarrel with this.   I'm not going to be surprised to see the Bills get what they can from Davis and then move on.  Oh, and by the way, I know you weren't saying Davis should go, but others are. 

 

Reading what you said made me think one other thing.   There are very few teams that actually keep their #2s around very long.  Colts did it for a long time, but it's much of a revolving door for teams.   That's because there's a limit to how many players teams can lock up for the long term, and #2 receiver is virtually never a priority, because of needs at more important positions.  So, who the next #2 is going to be is a continuing question for GMs.  What Beane meant when he said he's fine with Davis (whatever his exact words were) was that #2 receiver is not a problem now.