Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Do you still feel this way? I respect your opinion around here a ton, but man he goes completely ghost mode too often to be #2 to me. In my head he had a terribly inconsistent year.  I wanted to look at the stats to see if maybe my memory was off/exaggerated.  I looked at the games, and it was even worse than i remembered even to my surprise.

His stretch headed into the playoffs was atrocious.  We had a great record this year but I think it was despite him, not because he brought much.  How many 2-3 catch games under 30yds.

These lead to stalled drives, 3 n outs that kill field position, gasses the defense.  Im thinking it led Diggs to the most attention hes seen in his entire career, haaaad to lead to some of the frustration on his part.

If Stefs going to eat double teams the whole year, he deserves to have someone on the other side just eating because of it. Instead it felt like, double teamed? Welp try harder because nobody else wants to help move the ball.

 

I like Gabe i really do, he seems like a quietly driven dude. I saw how hard he worked last offseason! Was it truly the injury, what did you see brother? Honest good faith question here.

 

 

Yes. This thread was after this season. I still feel that way. Gabe Davis is a low end #2 but he is a #2. It doesn't mean I want him to be the Bills #2. But he has production. He is just not a chain mover type of #2 receiver. He is a big play guy and not a conventional one because it isn't break out speed. It is good body control, a good release package and an ability to run a certain package of routes - especially the post and comeback concepts - well. 

 

Someone hit the nail on the head earlier, in an elite receiving corps he is your #3 outside guy who can also play some big slot. And people want the Bills to have an elite receiving corps, I get that. But it leads them a little to overreaction. I don't think the Bills will pay Gabe, but someone will. He will get a decent FA deal this time next year commensurate with being a mid to low end #2 receiver. The Michael Gallop deal, plus a bit for 2 years inflation.

1 hour ago, BillsShredder83 said:

He does not fit us as a #2

 

That is a different point and I see that argument.

Edited March 28, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Dr. Who]

3 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You cant just look at a full year stat line and get an accurate depiction.  How many games did he meaningfully contribute?  If im very lenient I can say 7 of 15 games. In reality it was 9 games that he sat along for the ride.  He cant get open on short/intermediate stuff, which semi forced our hand into the whole 50yd bomb on 3rd and 4 scenario we were in all year.

 

Thats a great skill to have for a #3, but i need my #2 to get open short and intermediate first, then if you can hit the deep stuff great.

 

How many ppl said the offense looked best early season on the dink n dubk?  Cant do that when your #2 needs to get deep to have any chance at seperation.  Diggs was being asked to pull the weight of two. He does not fit us as a #2

I think this analysis is accurate. It doesn't look probable right now that the Bills are likely to acquire Hopkins or OBJ. They are supposedly high on the new FA acquisitions, neither of which screams even potential #2. Unlikely a draft pick will fall to 27 that will fulfill that role. There's a fair crowd that is now going with we were victims of bad breaks, injury, whatnot last year, so the chances of a SB are in reality unchanged and running it back is not a bad proposal. I think there still needs to be investment in oline and upgrade at wr2, te2. I expect a good chance 2 of the 3 day one and two picks go for the D again (LB, DL). 

[Dopey]

6 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

This has gotta be lack of separation right? These two guys had the same QB throwing them the ball

Beane dis mention Gabe’s ankle being an issue. That certainly hurts the ability to separate. Also, Diggs is one of the best route runners in the NFL. That’s why we gave up so much to bring him here from Minny. He’s been the focal point since arriving. Gabe was in his first year as a starter, with a new oc. Thinking an off season of film study and getting the ankle ready will help. I don’t think he was brought in as Diggs’ replacement. He the #2 wr and I feel he performed well overall in that role. 

[Behindenemylines]

On 2/20/2023 at 9:51 AM, Buffalo_Stampede said:

In this offense the #2 WR should be 1,000+ yards and 10 TD player consistently.

Agreed but I do think he is better than he appears to play actually. He’s an enigma for certain

[mjt328]

Fans always look at everything as black and white.   

Either Gabe Davis is really good and underappreciated... or he totally sucks and doesn't even belong on an NFL roster.

The reality is somewhere in the middle.  

 

Looking around the NFL, I found only seven teams with a #2 WR that is clearly and significantly better than Davis:

-  Dolphins, Bengals, Chargers, Eagles, Cowboys, Bucs, Seahawks

At the same time, there are about eight teams where Davis could potentially be their #1 guy:

-  Ravens, Texans, Colts, Titans, Chiefs, Giants, Packers, Panthers, 

 

The Bills are not in a terrible position with Davis as the #2 receiver.  But in my opinion, this team should be striving to surround Josh Allen with better weapons than "not terrible."  We've seen too many times in the playoffs where opponents succeed in taking away Stefon Diggs, and nobody steps up.  Having two exceptional outside receivers would keep that from happening.

 

[Shaw66]

9 hours ago, BillsShredder83 said:

You cant just look at a full year stat line and get an accurate depiction.  How many games did he meaningfully contribute?  If im very lenient I can say 7 of 15 games. In reality it was 9 games that he sat along for the ride.  He cant get open on short/intermediate stuff, which semi forced our hand into the whole 50yd bomb on 3rd and 4 scenario we were in all year.

 

Thats a great skill to have for a #3, but i need my #2 to get open short and intermediate first, then if you can hit the deep stuff great.

 

How many ppl said the offense looked best early season on the dink n dubk?  Cant do that when your #2 needs to get deep to have any chance at seperation.  Diggs was being asked to pull the weight of two. He does not fit us as a #2

This is a great example of how people misunderstand the reality of pro football.  Other than QBs and maybe a dozen or two dozen other skill players, pro football players do not make meaningful co tri unions in every game, or even half the games.  They do their jobs, and sometimes that results in nice days and sometimes not.   Most running backs aren't over 80 yards every game.  Most receivers don't catch 6 balls every game.   

 

The season stats are exactly the way to measure contribution, because every guy, other than the stars, make plays sporadically. It's their totals that matter, and Davis's totals are healthy.  Not great, but healthy.  

[Jay_Fixit]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

This is a great example of how people misunderstand the reality of pro football.  Other than QBs and maybe a dozen or two dozen other skill players, pro football players do not make meaningful co tri unions in every game, or even half the games.  They do their jobs, and sometimes that results in nice days and sometimes not.   Most running backs aren't over 80 yards every game.  Most receivers don't catch 6 balls every game.   

 

The season stats are exactly the way to measure contribution, because every guy, other than the stars, make plays sporadically. It's their totals that matter, and Davis's totals are healthy.  Not great, but healthy.  

He was 81st in receptions per game

He was 34th in yards per game

He was 186th in catch % right between MVS and Tutu Atwell

 

If he was a 3 then yeah, they’re healthy. But for a number 2, which this team desperately needs, they are not good enough. Which is why the Bills should be looking for a proper 2 unless they feel Davis can improve quite a bit.

[Shaw66]

40 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said:

He was 81st in receptions per game

He was 34th in yards per game

He was 186th in catch % right between MVS and Tutu Atwell

 

If he was a 3 then yeah, they’re healthy. But for a number 2, which this team desperately needs, they are not good enough. Which is why the Bills should be looking for a proper 2 unless they feel Davis can improve quite a bit.

Um, do the math.  There are 32 teams, remember?   So, that's 32 receivers who should be #1s and should be better than Davis.  34th in yards per game, that's high #2 receiver yardage.   81st in receptions?  That means there were a lot of receivers who were catching nickel and dime throws, because they weren't getting anything like the yards Davis got.  Catch % is one of those stats that people get hung up on that are not a measure of football production.  Of course, it's relevant to coaches, because it tells them where someone can improve.  But it isn't a true measure of performance that is of any real significance if the guy is getting 850 yards.   Yards and touchdowns are what matter, and in Davis's first season as a full time starter, boom!, yards and touchdowns.   

 

Davis is not a problem.  

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Um, do the math.  There are 32 teams, remember?   So, that's 32 receivers who should be #1s and should be better than Davis.  34th in yards per game, that's high #2 receiver yardage.   81st in receptions?  That means there were a lot of receivers who were catching nickel and dime throws, because they weren't getting anything like the yards Davis got.  Catch % is one of those stats that people get hung up on that are not a measure of football production.  Of course, it's relevant to coaches, because it tells them where someone can improve.  But it isn't a true measure of performance that is of any real significance if the guy is getting 850 yards.   Yards and touchdowns are what matter, and in Davis's first season as a full time starter, boom!, yards and touchdowns.   

 

Davis is not a problem.  

I like Gabe a lot and hope he stays, but it has to be noted that he got 20% of his yards and 29% of his TDs in a single game.

[Beck Water]

15 hours ago, Dopey said:

Beane dis mention Gabe’s ankle being an issue. That certainly hurts the ability to separate. Also, Diggs is one of the best route runners in the NFL. That’s why we gave up so much to bring him here from Minny. He’s been the focal point since arriving. Gabe was in his first year as a starter, with a new oc. Thinking an off season of film study and getting the ankle ready will help. I don’t think he was brought in as Diggs’ replacement. He the #2 wr and I feel he performed well overall in that role. 

 

The problem I have with this explanation (I’ll give it the benefit to call it explanation instead of excuse), is that we had the same explanation for Gabe in 2021: he had a early season ankle sprain and media members who attend practice like Sal Capaccio said it was visibly hindering him until late in the 2021 season.

 

https://www.draftsharks.com/fantasy/injury-history/gabriel-davis/10597

 

Same ankle, which he originally injured in the Ravens playoff game 2020.

 

If Davis has had ankle injuries in September practices two years in a row that have hindered him (per the observation of knowledgeable practice observers and his GM) all season for two years in a row, maybe this is a chronic issue or at least an injury that is more likely than not to recur, and therefore we need to consider the player that he is when his ankle is injured, as representing the player we get.

 

Now if somehow he can undergo off season rehab and strengthening or wear a brace or whatever such that the injury doesn’t recur, then sure, consider that off season film study and ankle rehab will help.  But wouldn’t he have done that off-season in 2022?

 

 

[Nephilim17]

22 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

He is just not a chain mover type of #2 receiver.

Exactly. I think most people believe we'd be better off with a consistent chain mover from out #2 guy then someone who explodes for 171 yards one game but in a six-week span puts up this yardage (and near the end of the season):
33
35

74

171

13 

37

 

Really? Some of you want that 171 yard big game from Davis and you're good with with four out of six games with 37 yards or less? Really, that's good #2 production?

Not for me. Way too much pressure on Diggs to have monster games and for Josh to run for first downs. Give me a #2 guy that gets 60 to 80 yards from Josh freakin' Allen most weeks.

But keep looking at yardage totals and tell yourself he's what the BIlls need.

Edited March 29, 2023 by Nephilim17

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, FrenchConnection said:

I like Gabe a lot and hope he stays, but it has to be noted that he got 20% of his yards and 29% of his TDs in a single game.

But that's in the nature of stats,  some big games some not good at all.  

[Shaw66]

12 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Exactly. I think most people believe we'd be better off with a consistent chain mover from out #2 guy then someone who explodes for 171 yards one game but in a six-week span puts up this yardage (and near the end of the season):
33
35

74

171

13 

37

 

Really? Some of you want that 171 yard big game from Davis and you're good with with four out of six games with 37 yards or less? Really, that's good #2 production?

Not for me. Way too much pressure on Diggs to have monster games and for Josh to run for first downs. Give me a #2 guy that gets 60 to 80 yards from Josh freakin' Allen most weeks.

But keep looking at yardage totals and tell yourself he's what the BIlls need.

Diggs and Davis had more yards than Chase and Higgins, so what does it really matter?  

 

Davis had 9 games under 50 yards. Higgins had 6.   Every number 2 has some non-productive days.

 

These splits you guys are relying on are pretty meaningless.

[Beck Water]

5 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

But that's in the nature of stats,  some big games some not good at all.  

 

While that’s certainly true overall, I think what some people are looking for is either a higher mean, or a smaller standard deviation.

 

14 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

Exactly. I think most people believe we'd be better off with a consistent chain mover from out #2 guy then someone who explodes for 171 yards one game but in a six-week span puts up this yardage (and near the end of the season):

 

I think there are all kinds of great discussion points stemming off your thoughts here.

 

The first is, what role was Gabe Davis asked to fill in this offense?  Was he asked to be the chain mover guy, or was he asked to be the aggressive, “we’re taking a shot” route runner?  Did Josh Allen essentially deflate his catch % by sending uncatchable balls thrown under duress or while Davis was double covered or had a DB in position to jump the route?

 

I think there’s some of both, myself.  I can remember some routes Davis ran that were clearly intended as “chain movers” where if he’s open, it should be a straightforward easy throw - and he dropped balls he should have caught at times.  I can also remember some deep shots or throws into coverage where I thought “Geesh, Allen is doing his pal Davis no favors on the catch % there”, and where there was another receiver (Knox or McKenzie, sometimes Hines or Shakir) who was clearly intended to be the chain-mover - and Allen passed him up and sacrificed a 1st down in favor of a low % deep shot to Gabe.  I don’t have access to the kind of stats that would let me comb out how common each situation was.

 

Anyway, I think a fair portrayal of Davis’ contributions last season is probably a bit more complicated than looking at his targets and catches and yards on a per game basis and putting it all on him.

[Nephilim17]

11 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Every number 2 has some non-productive days.

Show me another #2 receiver with a top quarterback that had a stretch of 6 games last year with 4 game under 40 yards receiving. I looked at the top-10 receiver combos last year and NO ONE was as inconsistent as Gabe. And that's with Josh Allen throwing to him.

 

Please show me a top QB with a number two guy with the long stretches of low-yardage games like Gabe.

[Jay_Fixit]

4 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Um, do the math.  There are 32 teams, remember?   So, that's 32 receivers who should be #1s and should be better than Davis.  34th in yards per game, that's high #2 receiver yardage.   81st in receptions?  That means there were a lot of receivers who were catching nickel and dime throws, because they weren't getting anything like the yards Davis got.  Catch % is one of those stats that people get hung up on that are not a measure of football production.  Of course, it's relevant to coaches, because it tells them where someone can improve.  But it isn't a true measure of performance that is of any real significance if the guy is getting 850 yards.   Yards and touchdowns are what matter, and in Davis's first season as a full time starter, boom!, yards and touchdowns.   

 

Davis is not a problem.  

I did the math. That’s why I made the post.

 

81st in receptions per game. Not receptions. That’s WR 3 worthy.

 

34th in yards… yeah, cause he got 1/5 of those in one game. Otherwise he’s around 48 yards per game. And yeah, that’s how stats work sometimes but he was realllllly a non factor in most games.

 

He had 2 games with more than 5 receptions. 2.

 

He had 8 games with under 40 yards.

 

Unless he improves, he’s not WR 2 worthy and Buffalo should look to upgrade.

 

I like Davis, but we’re not jumping chasms here. He’s just kinda meh.

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

While that’s certainly true overall, I think what some people are looking for is either a higher mean, or a smaller standard deviation.

 

 

 

Well, that's a very nice statement of the point.   However, I think there are two things to recognize here:

 

First, there aren't a lot of #2 receivers who have a higher mean.  The mean is just the average of the total, and as we've kept saying, his total yards are good for a #2 receiver.  Yes, the best #2s are a couple hundred yards ahead, but most #2s are behind Davis and those have a lower mean.   

 

Second, without having gone to study the data, I think it's a good bet that most #2s have a large standard deviation like Davis does.   Every week there's a different game plan, a different focus of the offense, different defenders, and then a different game.  I suspect the number of targets for most #2s varies widely from week to week.   Why?   Because every game is different, and because if a receiver is getting the same number of targets every week, that means the offense is predictable.  

 

Bottom line, I think people's expectations are unreasonable.   I just looked back over the past 20 years.  Bills had two #2s who had more yards than Davis.   Beasley with Brown and Lee Evans with Moulds.   In both cases, they weren't a lot higher.   Woods never did it.  Granted, the teams were bad, but the QBs were good - Allen and Bledsoe.  Having a 1000-yard #2 is a luxury, and complaining about the standard deviation or catch % is nitpicking - yes it would be good to improve those things, but none of it raises Davis to the level of being a problem.   I will be completely satisfied to see him on the field come September, and I'll expect him to have 1000 yards by the end of the season.  

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Show me another #2 receiver with a top quarterback that had a stretch of 6 games last year with 4 game under 40 yards receiving. I looked at the top-10 receiver combos last year and NO ONE was as inconsistent as Gabe. And that's with Josh Allen throwing to him.

 

Please show me a top QB with a number two guy with the long stretches of low-yardage games like Gabe.

No, I won't show you the number 2 you want to see, because it isn't worth going to look for it.   It's in the nature of random numbers.   It just isn't meaningful that he had four under 40 in six games.   Chances are that some other number 2 will do it next season.   And even if Davis does it again next season, the question then becomes "why is this happening?"   It could be happening for any number of reasons.   The unusual season is one where every game a receiver is within 10 or 15 yards of his average, every game.  That's rarely how random numbers fall. 

 

Did you look at the total yards receiving by top-10 combos?   Did you see where I said that Davis and Diggs had 200+ more yards on the season than Chase and Higgins?   Which would rather have, more yards or fewer yards and more consistency?   It's an interesting question, but it isn't immediately obvious that consistency is the right answer.  

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

No, I won't show you the number 2 you want to see, because it isn't worth going to look for it.   It's in the nature of random numbers.   It just isn't meaningful that he had four under 40 in six games.   Chances are that some other number 2 will do it next season.   And even if Davis does it again next season, the question then becomes "why is this happening?"   It could be happening for any number of reasons.   The unusual season is one where every game a receiver is within 10 or 15 yards of his average, every game.  That's rarely how random numbers fall. 

 

Did you look at the total yards receiving by top-10 combos?   Did you see where I said that Davis and Diggs had 200+ more yards on the season than Chase and Higgins?   Which would rather have, more yards or fewer yards and more consistency?   It's an interesting question, but it isn't immediately obvious that consistency is the right answer.  

Jamarr Chase missed like 5 games this year due to injury

[Nephilim17]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

No, I won't show you the number 2 you want to see, because it isn't worth going to look for it.   It's in the nature of random numbers.   It just isn't meaningful that he had four under 40 in six games.   Chances are that some other number 2 will do it next season.   And even if Davis does it again next season, the question then becomes "why is this happening?"   It could be happening for any number of reasons.   The unusual season is one where every game a receiver is within 10 or 15 yards of his average, every game.  That's rarely how random numbers fall. 

 

Did you look at the total yards receiving by top-10 combos?   Did you see where I said that Davis and Diggs had 200+ more yards on the season than Chase and Higgins?   Which would rather have, more yards or fewer yards and more consistency?   It's an interesting question, but it isn't immediately obvious that consistency is the right answer.  

Well, I've looked at the top-10 receiver duos in the league and Davis' numbers stick out as the worst for consistency with maybe the exception of 32-year-old Thielen in Minny — and with Cousins throwing to him. 

 

Also, and I think this is huge, we have a top-3 QB in Allen so I don't want our number two guy posting merely acceptable or average numbers — I want him to have dominant numbers as a reflection of who is throwing to him.

 

I — and many others — strongly disagree that Davis' numbers are "the nature of random numbers." Some athletes are streaky and others are consistent. I think consistency is a huge virtue as a number two guy because there will be games and teams who figure out how to minimize Diggs — and that's when we need the number two guy to step up. And what, God forbid, if Diggs gets hurt?

Belichick has been famous for taking away a team's top weapon and others will do it to us too. We need a guy that gives us a dependable high-end receiving weapon. Maybe that will be Knox (we need to throw to him more to find out) but until then, it has to be our number two WR.

I think most observers and fans here don't think that Davis is a high-end number two guy. You do and that's your right but many, including myself, think differently and want a replacement.