Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?

[BarleyNY]

8 hours ago, Beck Water said:

 

To be fair here,

 

1) We don't know how much talk about acquiring DHop comes from serious enquiries by the Bills themselves vs. pundits and fans.  Beane has said many times that often when the Bills are reported to be interested in a player, it means there have been preliminary calls, "is this player actually available?  what are your thoughts on a fair deal for him?" but it's clear there isn't gonna be a meeting of minds so that's all there is.

 

2) Beane did in fact mention needing to extend Gabe Davis (and Ed Oliver) in his combine presser when he talked about not re-signing Tremaine Edmunds.

 

 

That’s fair. I should’ve added that we don’t know much of what’s happening behind the scenes and that there certainly could be extension talks in earnest. Time will tell on this and acquiring DHop. It’s worth mentioning that I don’t see how both can happen with Diggs on the roster. It’d just be way too much cap space tied up in the receiving corps. 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It wasn’t just Davis being limited it was McKenzie as well. Understand I was very pro Davis and McKenzie. I understood why they were getting the opportunity. They are what they are. I still think Davis has value as a deep threat, red zone target, and blocker. He’s not fast but he has an ability to get behind the defense.

 

See I think this is part of it, especially with Davis. There were a lot of people who were sold on him coming off the KC game and who had, in my view, slightly over the top expectations for him in 2022 and he didn't meet them and now are slightly too negative on him. It's about finding that sensible middle ground. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

27 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I think this is part of it, especially with Davis. There were a lot of people who were sold on him coming off the KC game and who had, in my view, slightly over the top expectations for him in 2022 and he didn't meet them and now are slightly too negative on him. It's about finding that sensible middle ground. 

I wasn’t sold but I understood that the Bills needed to find out if he can be a WR2 before drafting his replacement. He did earn those snaps he got last year. You typically don’t draft slot only WRs high in the draft. So spending a 1st is technically replacing Davis.

Edited March 27, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[The Red King]

On 2/20/2023 at 9:42 AM, Chaos said:

Gabe Davis is a bit of an anomaly on the current Bills. His best play comes in the playoffs rather than the regular season.  

 

The reason I asking "Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?" is because Spotrac ranks him as having a higher market value than either Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver or Jordan Poyer. Spotrac bases is ranking on actual production vs comps.  No eye tests involved.  Based on production, the comps Spotrac sees for Davis are Christian Kirk, Russell Gage, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfrow.  For all of the discussion around Tremaine Edmunds being virtually a child in years, Davis is actually a year younger, and only 23  now.  He will be the same age as Edmunds when he becomes a free agent next year. 

 

 

No.  He has key drops at the worst time.  I don't care if someone has a 99% catch rate and 90 yrd avg per catch if they keep dropping the ones we desperately need and never fights for contested balls.

[T master]

Not sure there is a true number 1-A WR in this draft but i'm sure Beane is shaking the tree's & has something in mind when it comes to moves as far as FA if there are still any FA's left after the draft that he has been looking into I'm sure he could have more up his sleeve . 

 

At any rate Gabe is a good player & a definite number 3 which can be depended on in certain situations & Josh has a chemistry with him & i believe Gabe will work very hard to try & make his production better this season .

Edited March 27, 2023 by T master

[SoCal Deek]

2 minutes ago, T master said:

Not sure there is a true number 1-A WR in this draft but i'm sure Beane is shaking the tree's & has something in mind when it comes to moves as far as FA if there are still any FA's left after the draft that he has been looking into I'm sure he could have more up his sleeve . 

I’m nowhere near as sure. It’s possible that Beane is looking at the long term plan now, and realizes he’s got way too many 2023 holes to fill with way too little cash to fill them with. I guess we’re gonna find out.

[BananaB]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

See I think this is part of it, especially with Davis. There were a lot of people who were sold on him coming off the KC game and who had, in my view, slightly over the top expectations for him in 2022 and he didn't meet them and now are slightly too negative on him. It's about finding that sensible middle ground. 

I had high hopes for both, thought they both had proven they could make the jump. I was wrong and I noticed that early in the season. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I wasn’t sold but I understood that the Bills needed to find out if he can be a WR2 before drafting his replacement. He did earn those snaps he got last year. You typically don’t draft slot only WRs high in the draft. So spending a 1st is technically replacing Davis.

 

Agree if you draft someone round 1 you want them to start on the boundary really. In this draft class I think what you are hoping for if you go receiver is that the guy you take can split those reps with Gabe in year 1 and take over in year 2 if (and as we all expect, when) Gabe moves on. 

[Alphadawg7]

On 2/20/2023 at 6:42 AM, Chaos said:

Gabe Davis is a bit of an anomaly on the current Bills. His best play comes in the playoffs rather than the regular season.  

 

The reason I asking "Do the Bills Under Appreciate Gabe Davis?" is because Spotrac ranks him as having a higher market value than either Tremaine Edmunds, Ed Oliver or Jordan Poyer. Spotrac bases is ranking on actual production vs comps.  No eye tests involved.  Based on production, the comps Spotrac sees for Davis are Christian Kirk, Russell Gage, Michael Gallup, Hunter Renfrow.  For all of the discussion around Tremaine Edmunds being virtually a child in years, Davis is actually a year younger, and only 23  now.  He will be the same age as Edmunds when he becomes a free agent next year. 

 

 

Huh?  You're comparing them based on the market value of different positions now?  Dude, the top WR's make $30M a year...the top safeties, MLB, etc don't make anything near that.  

 

So OF COURSE Davis is a higher GUESSED market value by some website.  This is just another one of your weird and irrelevant takes all together.  Nothing in here is useful information of any kind towards the conclusion you are trying to paint. 

Edited March 27, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Mikie2times]

A couple things I'm seeing in this thread and starting to get annoyed. Davis has been #2 in the NFL in yards per catch back to back years. Three years ago he was 4th. YPC has an inverse correlation with catch %. Last year, ranking the top 140 WR's, the correlation is -.62. Not married, but statistically relevant. Past using a formula to determine this how about common sense? Deeper routes = lower receptions per route thrown. This aside, Davis was a steal for us relative to where he fell in the draft. As far as being a legit #2, he has not lived up to that billing. If that is the standard of success for a 4th round pick than we will have a lot of depressed fans in the future. Him meeting, failing to meet, or exceeding expectations is purely up to the people assigning those. He has destroyed any normal expectations for a 4th round pick.   

[papazoid]

gabe davis  48 catches on 93 targets = 51.6%

dawson knox 48 catches on 65 targets = 73.8%

mckenzie 42 catches on 65 targets = 64.6%

stephon diggs 108 catches on 154 targets = 70.1

jamar chase 87 catches on 134 targets 65.0%

tee higgins 74 catches on 109 targets = 67.9%

tyler boyd 58 catches on 82 targets = 70.7%

hayden hurst 52 catches on 68 targets = 76.5

[GoBills808]

18 minutes ago, KzooMike said:

A couple things I'm seeing in this thread and starting to get annoyed. Davis has been #2 in the NFL in yards per catch back to back years. Three years ago he was 4th. YPC has an inverse correlation with catch %. Last year, ranking the top 140 WR's, the correlation is -.62. Not married, but statistically relevant. Past using a formula to determine this how about common sense? Deeper routes = lower receptions per route thrown. This aside, Davis was a steal for us relative to where he fell in the draft. As far as being a legit #2, he has not lived up to that billing. If that is the standard of success for a 4th round pick than we will have a lot of depressed fans in the future. Him meeting, failing to meet, or exceeding expectations is purely up to the people assigning those. He has destroyed any normal expectations for a 4th round pick.   

Correct

 

higher ADOT will correlate w lower catch% (or comp% from QB perspective)

 

however concerns re: Davis' limited route tree, overall physicality, and untimely drops in the #2 role are valid imo

[Mikie2times]

2 minutes ago, papazoid said:

gabe davis  48 catches on 93 targets = 51.6%

dawson knox 48 catches on 65 targets = 73.8%

mckenzie 42 catches on 65 targets = 64.6%

stephon diggs 108 catches on 154 targets = 70.1

jamar chase 87 catches on 134 targets 65.0%

tee higgins 74 catches on 109 targets = 67.9%

tyler boyd 58 catches on 82 targets = 70.7%

hayden hurst 52 catches on 68 targets = 76.5

Compare him to the NFL league leaders in YPC, not that context should matter when having a BBQ. Then consider he was #2 last year, #4 3 years ago, and he compares to zero WR's on our team as far as route depth. As I said, not a #2. But the drop% crowd needs to look how the Bills use him as well. 

 

1. Jaylen Waddle 64.1%

2. Gabe Davis 51.6%

3. AJ Brown 60.7%

4. Corey Davis 50%

5. Marquez Valdes-Scantling 51.9%

6. Darius Slayton 64.8%

 7. Terry McLaurin 64.2%

8. George Pickens 61.9%

9. Davante Adams 55.6%

10. Amari Cooper 59.1%

 

 

4 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Correct

 

higher ADOT will correlate w lower catch% (or comp% from QB perspective)

 

however concerns re: Davis' limited route tree, overall physicality, and untimely drops in the #2 role are valid imo

100%

[papazoid]

he leads the league in drops

 

espn analytics five thirty eight ranks gabe as the 100th best wr in league

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/nfl-receiver-rankings/

 

it's not all rosy

 

all i'm saying is currently he is a #3 WR at best and we need an upgrade at  #2 WR

 

i'm not trying to get rid of gabe......i just dont value him as a #2

 

 

[Beck Water]

16 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

That’s fair. I should’ve added that we don’t know much of what’s happening behind the scenes and that there certainly could be extension talks in earnest. Time will tell on this and acquiring DHop. It’s worth mentioning that I don’t see how both can happen with Diggs on the roster. It’d just be way too much cap space tied up in the receiving corps. 

 

Concur. 

 

Also as I've said elsewhere, Beane has talked about "his process" for want of a better term - he likes to focus on our impending FA, on FA, and make contract changes/extensions only as he needs to to get under the cap and sign his FA.   Then the draft.  Then he gets to work on contract extensions.

 

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, papazoid said:

he leads the league in drops

 

In fact, he does not lead the league in drops

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2022/receiving_advanced.htm

He's like 14th in drop percentage, which I think is the most meaningful number.

 

I'm not saying he doesn't have too many drops, but why exaggerate?

 

4 hours ago, papazoid said:

espn analytics five thirty eight ranks gabe as the 100th best wr in league

 

What are their metrics? 

 

Because by passer rating when targeted, he's pretty low - but that's a metric that speaks at least as much about the QB and when/how he targets the WR.  Gabe can have a low passer rating when targeted because Josh is throwing it away in his general direction a lot, or throwing him off-target, uncatchable balls.

 

By most metrics which most people use to assess WR, he's quite a bit better than that - you know, receiving yards (33), yds per game (34), Y/R (2), TD (19) 1D (49).

His catch % is low though (186) but again, I'm not sure that's all on him - I think Josh did him no favors with the target #s.

 

That's not to say that you, or I, or the Bills, shouldn't be wanting an upgrade at #2, but why not recognize what the guy did, and did well?

[BillsShredder83]

On 2/20/2023 at 9:46 AM, GunnerBill said:

Do the Bills? No. Do Bills fans? Yes, some. He is a lower end #2 receiver but there are folks on here saying he is a #3 or a #4 and that is plain wrong. Spotrac's projections are not always my cup of tea but Michael Gallop as a comparator for Gabe makes a ton of sense. Similar level of player. A lower end #2 who makes big plays but has a low catch rate. 

Do you still feel this way? I respect your opinion around here a ton, but man he goes completely ghost mode too often to be #2 to me. In my head he had a terribly inconsistent year.  I wanted to look at the stats to see if maybe my memory was off/exaggerated.  I looked at the games, and it was even worse than i remembered even to my surprise.

His stretch headed into the playoffs was atrocious.  We had a great record this year but I think it was despite him, not because he brought much.  How many 2-3 catch games under 30yds.

These lead to stalled drives, 3 n outs that kill field position, gasses the defense.  Im thinking it led Diggs to the most attention hes seen in his entire career, haaaad to lead to some of the frustration on his part.

If Stefs going to eat double teams the whole year, he deserves to have someone on the other side just eating because of it. Instead it felt like, double teamed? Welp try harder because nobody else wants to help move the ball.

 

I like Gabe i really do, he seems like a quietly driven dude. I saw how hard he worked last offseason! Was it truly the injury, what did you see brother? Honest good faith question here.

 

[Beck Water]

5 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Correct

 

higher ADOT will correlate w lower catch% (or comp% from QB perspective)

 

however concerns re: Davis' limited route tree, overall physicality, and untimely drops in the #2 role are valid imo

 

Absolutely!  As I said, totally understandable to want an upgrade - but let's give the guy credit for what he's asked to do and what he's done.

[BillsShredder83]

On 3/26/2023 at 10:47 PM, Dopey said:

I think he took a step forward last season, but I wasn’t expecting a pro bowl player. Just a 4th round pick who was supposed to supplement our star receiver. I think he did that. First season as a full time starter with a new OC. I also think Josh and Gabe weren’t in synch with each other. I saw a stat where he was targeted 93 times and the number of those that were “catchable “ was 57. Fantasypros.com.

Not putting too much stock into the site or stat, but I think an offseason of film study by Josh, Gabe AND Dorsey to see where the issues were is going to help. I’d like to see the “catchable “ rate a little higher. For Diggs it was around 75% as opposed to the 61% for Gabe. Lastly and maybe more importantly, it’s a contract year baby!!

This has gotta be lack of separation right? These two guys had the same QB throwing them the ball

[BillsShredder83]

On 3/26/2023 at 10:19 PM, Shaw66 said:

Absurd.  Crashed and burned?   He had more catches and more yards than 10 of #1s in the league, and more catches and yards than about 25 of the #2s.   That is not crashed and burned, by any means at all.  

 

Anyone who wants to replace Davis because 2022 wasn't good enough has unreasonable expectations for a #2.  

 

Anyone who wants him to improve on 2022, great.  You do, I do, McDermott does, and he does.   But burning quality draft picks to get someone who might be better, forget it.  Spending cap space beyond what's already been spent, forget it. 

You cant just look at a full year stat line and get an accurate depiction.  How many games did he meaningfully contribute?  If im very lenient I can say 7 of 15 games. In reality it was 9 games that he sat along for the ride.  He cant get open on short/intermediate stuff, which semi forced our hand into the whole 50yd bomb on 3rd and 4 scenario we were in all year.

 

Thats a great skill to have for a #3, but i need my #2 to get open short and intermediate first, then if you can hit the deep stuff great.

 

How many ppl said the offense looked best early season on the dink n dubk?  Cant do that when your #2 needs to get deep to have any chance at seperation.  Diggs was being asked to pull the weight of two. He does not fit us as a #2