Why bother with Special Teams?

[ProcessTruster]

Since Bass can kick 4 out of 5 (5 out of 5?) out of the end zone anytime he wants, and the point of punt and kickoff returns is simply to get the ball safely into 17's hands, why would the Bills tie up 10m+ in Neal, Jones, Matakavich, et al?   With Hines and Bass on the team, returns and kickoffs are non events.   I would prefer to take that cap space, load up on offense and therefore punt very little, taking that risk off the table as well.   Coaches talk all about the importance of special teams.  With long ball kickers and solid return guys, not sure I'm buying it.   

[Buffalo_Stampede]

I honestly don’t understand why they don’t just kick it out of the end zone every kick.

 

They are trying to kick it high and make a tackle inside the 20 but it’s not likely to happen. Sets up injuries and a possible long return.

 

 I also think they have to justify the cap spent on special teams players. They need to change the philosophy. 
 

Bass was 70% touch back as a rookie and the coaches have him down to 46% last year. Dropping each year. There is very little benefit in kicking short. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Simon Says]

6 minutes ago, ProcessTruster said:

Since Bass can kick 4 out of 5 (5 out of 5?) out of the end zone anytime he wants, and the point of punt and kickoff returns is simply to get the ball safely into 17's hands, why would the Bills tie up 10m+ in Neal, Jones, Matakavich, et al?   With Hines and Bass on the team, returns and kickoffs are non events.   I would prefer to take that cap space, load up on offense and therefore punt very little, taking that risk off the table as well.   Coaches talk all about the importance of special teams.  With long ball kickers and solid return guys, not sure I'm buying it.   

You obviously are referring to COVERAGE guys, but, Hines and Bass can't do it all by themselves.

Smiley coached ST into a top unit,so,maybe he can get by with rookies replacing Jones, Matakevich,etc. But look at their cap hits; is there really that much to be saved?

[Buffalo Junction]

Because having good special teams usually won’t win you a game, but bad special teams play can often lose you a game. The tighter the game is the more influence special teams has with turnovers, field position, and momentum. Poor jammers or up backs can lead to turnovers, bad gunners can lead to big returns, bad holders lead to missed field goals, etc. There’s a reason why guys like Taiwan Jones and Kumerow make rosters every year. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Because having good special teams usually won’t win you a game, but bad special teams play can often lose you a game. The tighter the game is the more influence special teams has with turnovers, field position, and momentum. Poor jammers or up backs can lead to turnovers, bad gunners can lead to big returns, bad holders lead to missed field goals, etc. There’s a reason why guys like Taiwan Jones and Kumerow make rosters every year. 

It’s the old special teams are 1/3 of the game thinking. The NFL changed the rules which allows for no return the majority of kickoffs. Coach to the rules. The best kick cover teams allow around 20 yards a return. Most of the NFL is right around 20-25 yards a return.

 

If the rules stay the same just kick it out of the end zone. Getting a few yards extra isn’t worth it.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Matt_In_NH]

13 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

honestly don’t understand why they don’t just kick it out of the end zone every kick

The answer is data/analytics.  Because the other team has an average drive start further back than the 25 and statistically that means you give up points.  There is really good data to back it up.  Over the course of the season it probably means 20 or more less points given up. 

[John from Riverside]

Guys, they can block in guys that can tackle on special teams
 

But we should be using a lot more draft picks for this

[Buffalo_Stampede]

9 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The answer is data/analytics.  Because the other team has an average drive start further back than the 25 and statistically that means you give up points.  There is really good data to back it up.  Over the course of the season it probably means 20 or more less points given up. 

I would love to see league points scored starting after a touch back vs starting a drive after a return.

 

I dont believe it’s worth risking injury or a long return. If you have a kicker that can kick a TB 100% of the time why wouldn’t you do it? Zero teams in the NFL tackle a returner short of the 25 every kickoff.

[BillsFan130]

29 minutes ago, Herb Nightly said:

You obviously are referring to COVERAGE guys, but, Hines and Bass can't do it all by themselves.

Smiley coached ST into a top unit,so,maybe he can get by with rookies replacing Jones, Matakevich,etc. But look at their cap hits; is there really that much to be saved?

Some of those guys have cap hits into the 2.5 3.5 mil range.

 

Lets say you sub out 3-4 of those for guys on rookie deals/ veteran minimum vets

 

You are probably looking at 6-10 mil in cap savings. I would say that’s a descent amount 

[StHustle]

5 of the last 10 Super Bowl winners had top 5 special team units.

[Matt_In_NH]

8 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I would love to see league points scored starting after a touch back vs starting a drive after a return.

 

I dont believe it’s worth risking injury or a long return. If you have a kicker that can kick a TB 100% of the time why wouldn’t you do it? Zero teams in the NFL tackle a returner short of the 25 every kickoff.

 

"Zero teams tackle a returner short of the 25 on every kickoff, true".  However, take the average drive start over all kickoffs that are not touchbacks, that is what you need to work with not one individual play.  That is the whole point of analytics, you are trying to find a small statistical advantage, it might seem worthless to you but if you find 5 such advantages it becomes something significant.  NFL teams have been shown to be wrong in the past, for instance, reluctance to go for it on 4th down has been proven to be a bad philosophy and now you see teams going for it more.  in this case, if you can cover kicks well it does work and that is why it's done.

 

You can search around online and find data.  Ultimately it comes down to a few tenths of points scored on average per drive if you start at the 25 vs the 20. 

 

This is not exact, just trying to show the thinking:

You have about 6 kickoffs per game, figure 3 are touchbacks and 3 you get at the 20 on average.  Those three drive starts at the 20 equal about 1 point in a game statistically.  So 17 points over a season.  Those points can be the difference in winning and losing in an individual game.  Is it debatable?  Maybe, if you can get drive starts inside the 20 the benefit is even greater obviously.   The margin of winning and losing in the NFL is thin, any advantage needs to be carefully considered.

 

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html

 

 

 

[Drew21PA]

Old school

 

”losers walk”. Start on their 25

[Buffalo_Stampede]

18 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

 

"Zero teams tackle a returner short of the 25 on every kickoff, true".  However, take the average drive start over all kickoffs that are not touchbacks, that is what you need to work with not one individual play.  That is the whole point of analytics, you are trying to find a small statistical advantage, it might seem worthless to you but if you find 5 such advantages it becomes something significant.  NFL teams have been shown to be wrong in the past, for instance, reluctance to go for it on 4th down has been proven to be a bad philosophy and now you see teams going for it more.  in this case, if you can cover kicks well it does work and that is why it's done.

 

You can search around online and find data.  Ultimately it comes down to a few tenths of points scored on average per drive if you start at the 25 vs the 20. 

 

This is not exact, just trying to show the thinking:

You have about 6 kickoffs per game, figure 3 are touchbacks and 3 you get at the 20 on average.  Those three drive starts at the 20 equal about 1 point in a game statistically.  So 17 points over a season.  Those points can be the difference in winning and losing in an individual game.  Is it debatable?  Maybe, if you can get drive starts inside the 20 the benefit is even greater obviously.   The margin of winning and losing in the NFL is thin, any advantage needs to be carefully considered.

 

http://phdfootball.blogspot.com/2013/06/field-position-and-scoring.html

 

 

 

There is no data that supports forcing a return instead a touchback. It’s such a small difference either way. It’s not worth it.

 

You’re much more likely to give up a 30+ yard return or have someone injured. 
 

Scenario 1: 3/6 returns start at the 15 yard line. 2/6 start around 30. One return gets it to the 45.

Scenario 2: 6/6 drives start at the 25.

 

What scenario is more likely to result in points? Also the long return has the chance to change momentum.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Green Lightning]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

There is no data that supports forcing a return instead a touchback. It’s such a small difference either way. It’s not worth it.

 

You’re much more likely to give up a 30+ yard return or have someone injured. 
 

Scenario 1: 3/6 returns start at the 15 yard line. 2/3 start around 30. One return gets it to the 45.

Scenario 2: 6/6 drives start at the 25.

 

What scenario is more likely to result in points? Also the long return has the chance to change momentum.

Yeah. Talk to the Bengals about the importance punt return coverage and get back to me.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

18 minutes ago, Green Lightning said:

Yeah. Talk to the Bengals about the importance punt return coverage and get back to me.

Punting is different. There are no rules that benefit the punting team.

 

If I were coaching special teams I would want shorter but higher punts for the same reason, limit a return. Force a fair catch. I bet that Eagles punter was trying to directional kick and also pin inside the 20. He missed it and hit a line drive.

 

 I don’t think the extra 5 yards means much. Yes if you can pin them inside the 10 it definitely makes a difference but that’s all on the punters skill, not the coverage. Some guys are good at downing a punt before it goes into the end zone but I’m not spending cap on those guys.

 

 I would also say this, if that punter kicked it through the end zone they might have won the Super Bowl

Edited February 20, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Matt_In_NH]

23 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

There is no data that supports forcing a return instead a touchback. It’s such a small difference either way. It’s not worth it.

 

You’re much more likely to give up a 30+ yard return or have someone injured. 
 

Scenario 1: 3/6 returns start at the 15 yard line. 2/6 start around 30. One return gets it to the 45.

Scenario 2: 6/6 drives start at the 25.

 

What scenario is more likely to result in points? Also the long return has the chance to change momentum.

 

If what you said was true you would be right, but the scenarios you list I assume were just made up guesses.  Below is an article from the Buffalo news from last year that showed the Bills opponents start at the 18.2 yard line on average which was outstanding.

 

PlayAction: How the Bills weaponize their kickoff coverage unit

https://buffalonews.com › sports › playaction-how-the-bill...

Nov 23, 2022 — The Bills are holding opponents to an 18.2-yard average on kickoff returns, second best in the league. Buffalo ranked third in kickoff coverage ...

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

 

If what you said was true you would be right, but the scenarios you list I assume were just made up guesses.  Below is an article from the Buffalo news from last year that showed the Bills opponents start at the 18.2 yard line on average which was outstanding.

 

PlayAction: How the Bills weaponize their kickoff coverage unit

https://buffalonews.com › sports › playaction-how-the-bill...

Nov 23, 2022 — The Bills are holding opponents to an 18.2-yard average on kickoff returns, second best in the league. Buffalo ranked third in kickoff coverage ...

And the league average kick return is around 20. 
 

We can’t just say 18 yards. What does that even mean? It doesn’t mean anything when compared to the league. There is no advantage to a defense when the opponents offense starts at the 20 vs the 25. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said:

Since Bass can kick 4 out of 5 (5 out of 5?) out of the end zone anytime he wants, and the point of punt and kickoff returns is simply to get the ball safely into 17's hands, why would the Bills tie up 10m+ in Neal, Jones, Matakavich, et al?   With Hines and Bass on the team, returns and kickoffs are non events.   I would prefer to take that cap space, load up on offense and therefore punt very little, taking that risk off the table as well.   Coaches talk all about the importance of special teams.  With long ball kickers and solid return guys, not sure I'm buying it.   

I thought you were going to discuss straight up eliminating ST from the game itself, which I'd be interested in pursuing.

 

But if your point is simply that our administration GREATLY over-values the importance of special teams, you are dead on correct!  It's all part of that classic, old school, football guy mentality, that these guys all learn in the game bubble from the same people, and then kick around in the bubble for the remainder of their careers.

It gets passed from one generation to the next in this way, and is handed down as "football knowledge."

 

Like so many aspects of the game, we now know that is all BS.

 

Data says otherwise.

 

 

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The answer is data/analytics.  Because the other team has an average drive start further back than the 25 and statistically that means you give up points.  There is really good data to back it up.  Over the course of the season it probably means 20 or more less points given up. 

 

Do you believe that McD embraces analytical data and uses that in his decision making process?  Because most professional coaches aren't enamored with analytics or the prospect of of using data to shape game-plans or even personnel acquisition.    

 

I think more innovative HC's are looking for advantages and are moving toward this, but many are not.  If anything, cap challenges are driving their decisions on special teams and what they do on the special teams unit. 

 

[GunnerBill]

The thing is the data does still show that the best teams tend to be good on special teams. I did a comparison of the Bills $$s allocation to STs compared to SB winners a couple of years ago and they were pretty much right about on the average. Happy to crunch those numbers again at some point this offseason to see what has moved, but basically every team pays a few guys just to run about on special teams.