Draft Strategy. Play to Beane’s strengths!

[ALLEN1QB]

Hey just might be a good idea!!

[starrymessenger]

Looking at this year's draft (and FA) I think Beane has an opportunity to make changes that can help right the ship but he needs to find starters and potential impact players at the top of the draft, say the first 3 rounds. IMO these picks should lay the foundation for a change in direction and football philosophy. The players you want and need are there to be picked but it certainly would help to have some luck in having your targets be available to you. All the teams are competing for these most desirable assets.

Addison has been mocked to the Bills. Pick him at 27 and your WR problems insofar as talent is concerned should be resolved. Addison is DeShaun Jackson. I'll take that any day. Most of the best WRs in this draft are pure slot guys. We don't need another slot receiver to start. I think Shakir could prove good enuf and very good indeed if used properly. Addison is versatile, fast and sufficiently gifted with ball skills to have productive reps on the outside as a deep threat. He can also take the top off a D running intermediate depth routes in the middle of the field. In the second round it's just possible that you could land Jack Clark to replace the departing Edmunds. I think he will be a terrific player even if you need to cheat a bit in covering the deeper zones on passing downs to occasionally help him out. If you get to do something like that in the first two rounds you have greatly improved both sides of the ball. 
It needn't really be those particular guys either. They could replace Edmunds with Trenton Simpson in the first if he's there. There will be promising IOL prospects in the second, maybe Steve Avila who has centre/guard versatility. In the third Marvin Mims, a guy I'm very high on as a legit # 2 WR could still be hanging around. The point is simply that there are plenty of players in the draft that could do the Bills a lot of good, but Beane needs to hit on them early. And there would be, depending on the position, good players available in the later rounds. The RB group is very strong and there are bigger between the tackles short yardage backs but with with wheels who should be there in the fifth. For this reason and also because of other priorities  I would pass on Bijan if there even though he's a great player and would take some of the heat off Josh, who thankfully would no longer be RB 1. Needless to say, Beane can also look to improve the roster through FA and possibly trades. What I wouldn't want to see is Beane/McD showing everybody how smart they are like they did in the third round last year. If they pick Andrew Vorhees in the first I'll be buying a new TV day after.

My expectation though is that this Bills brain trust will probably look to fill holes in a piecemeal fashion, in other words run it back. I don't believe that this coaching staff is capable of implementing a strategic shift, so it's maybe just as well. If so the result is likely to not be good enough, once more. 

 

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by starrymessenger

[newcam2012]

6 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Whatever they choose to do, it requires someone that knows how to put cheap (aka drafted) talent into place.  This crew hasn't even sniffed being able to do that in five seasons.  Now they're on the cusp of lapping themselves in the cap hell situation, and we're in it for round two, .... I guess.  Doesn't sound all that inspiring to me.  

 

If history holds, we'll draft our players, be told how going against conventional wisdom in one or more ways will net us a big improvement in whatever facet they put forth.  The media will applaud us for having an A- Draft, and how couldn't it be with all of the holes we have, none of our rookies will make any kind of impact this season, we'll be having the same conversation next year, and over time we'll see that all of our day 1 & 2 picks aren't holding their draft status as to where they were selected, and one or two of our day 3 players we'll get rid of claiming that they're not needed while they go and do more than any of our other draft picks except elsewhere.  That's the established pattern here.  To wish upon a star for something different, well ...  LOL  

 

 

Very well stated again. Its hard to imagine someone is taking the words right out of my mouth only to say it more clearly and elegantly. 

 

Couldn't agree more with your post. Why people fail to use logic and see likely results is beyond me. I prefer a more reality based point of view.

 

What Beane sold us at the press conference was garbage. Yet, Bills fans will pound the drum that the Bills are going to the super bowl.  I guess one must have to suspend belief, ignore patterns, possess blind optimism, and have a disregard for probability. 

 

I have little confidence that Beane will be able to pull off getting quality high impact players with all the restrictions in place. As a result, the Bills are likely to fail in their journey to the top.

 

Lets break it down. Tear it down and get better. Improve enough to bring one home. That has to happen with new coaches, new management, and new schemes. Otherwise, the team is stuck in good mode but not good enough mode. Expect similar results next year or worse. 

[entropyrules]

1 hour ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

 

 

 

Got any?

wait let me check be back in a sec......................................................

 

oh what was the question again?

[ghostwriter]

15 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Alright, hear me out.  Brandon Beane has proven that he can’t consistently hit on 1st/2nd round picks.  Let’s be honest.  We are going to have a lot of holes to fill after the FA bloodbath.  
 

Since Beane tends to hit on mid-late round prospects, let’s trade out of the 1st and 2nd round altogether.  Accumulate as many 3rd-5th round picks as possible.  Thanks for reading.

 

Let me know what you think in the comments.  Like and subscribe.

We’ll probably draft a safety or an undersized LB in RD1.

[BADOLBILZ]

 

 

Did @BringBackFergy leave with Yolo?

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Following this logic, we need to trade J.Allen and trade up and draft a QB….since Beane at least did that correctly.

[RyanC883]

16 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Alright, hear me out.  Brandon Beane has proven that he can’t consistently hit on 1st/2nd round picks.  Let’s be honest.  We are going to have a lot of holes to fill after the FA bloodbath.  
 

Since Beane tends to hit on mid-late round prospects, let’s trade out of the 1st and 2nd round altogether.  Accumulate as many 3rd-5th round picks as possible.  Thanks for reading.

 

Let me know what you think in the comments.  Like and subscribe.

 

 

 

I’ve thought about this also.   
 

Ideally if we didn’t have cap issues we could trade early picks for impact players.  But this route is out.  
 

In terms of drafting later rounds, Bean does a good job, but not so much in finding impact players as contributing players (Jackson, Spencer Brown, Cook, etc).  
 

I think now we are stuck hoping Bean gets an impact player in Rd. 1 and 2.  

 

 

 

[Johnny Hammersticks]

2 minutes ago, ControllerOfPlanetX said:

Following this logic, we need to trade J.Allen and trade up and draft a QB….since Beane at least did that correctly.

Let’s not get crazy here…

[Kwai San]

9 hours ago, Chaos said:

Why not an option 1A where the Salary Cap saved by resigning Edmunds is used to improve the oline, and Edmunds is replaced in the draft? 

 Pray tell - @ pick 27 whom might this mystery individual be?  I get that you are not a fan of Edmunds but come on man.  @27 there is NO ONE whom will step into the Edmunds role or even 1/2 of his role right out of camp.  If there is go for it......but from what I see, that guy ain't there......

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Very well stated again. Its hard to imagine someone is taking the words right out of my mouth only to say it more clearly and elegantly. 

 

Couldn't agree more with your post. Why people fail to use logic and see likely results is beyond me. I prefer a more reality based point of view.

 

What Beane sold us at the press conference was garbage. Yet, Bills fans will pound the drum that the Bills are going to the super bowl.  I guess one must have to suspend belief, ignore patterns, possess blind optimism, and have a disregard for probability. 

 

I have little confidence that Beane will be able to pull off getting quality high impact players with all the restrictions in place. As a result, the Bills are likely to fail in their journey to the top.

 

Lets break it down. Tear it down and get better. Improve enough to bring one home. That has to happen with new coaches, new management, and new schemes. Otherwise, the team is stuck in good mode but not good enough mode. Expect similar results next year or worse. 

 

Thanks!

 

Having said all that, I guess that the eternal optimists always have the possibility that we'll just get one of those "lucky seasons" that propels us to a championship, like LA a little in '21.  But if rather rely on talent and good coaching, which we're short on.  

 

What's strange is how some teams, like ours, don't consider making similar changes in their coaching ranks like they do for the roster/depth chart.  

 

It's a business, nothing should be off the table, and unless you've achieved perfection, and we haven't come close, then there's always room for improvement.

[Chaos]

29 minutes ago, Kwai San said:

 Pray tell - @ pick 27 whom might this mystery individual be?  I get that you are not a fan of Edmunds but come on man.  @27 there is NO ONE whom will step into the Edmunds role or even 1/2 of his role right out of camp.  If there is go for it......but from what I see, that guy ain't there......

Whole thread on the subject

https://www.twobillsdrive.com/community/topic/246114-suitable-edmunds-replacements-in-the-draft/

 

[frostbitmic]

Trade around until they have the first five picks of round #3, enough of this first and second round mediocrity.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Let’s not get crazy here…

 

Are you saying we should NOT draft exclusively left handed people in an attempt to become more creative on both offense and defense? I’d like to see more creativity on both sides of the ball, but we need to horses to make that happen! 

[Alphadawg7]

18 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Alright, hear me out.  Brandon Beane has proven that he can’t consistently hit on 1st/2nd round picks.  Let’s be honest.  We are going to have a lot of holes to fill after the FA bloodbath.  
 

Since Beane tends to hit on mid-late round prospects, let’s trade out of the 1st and 2nd round altogether.  Accumulate as many 3rd-5th round picks as possible.  Thanks for reading.

 

Let me know what you think in the comments.  Like and subscribe.

 

This is a bit exaggerative, but there is merit to trading out of the first round and compiling more pics given our cap situation and strength of our roster.  But its not so simple and cut and dry as you laid out here.  It depends who is on the board at 27 first and foremost because that will determine if Bills are even willing to trade out of that spot or if there is someone who wants to trade into our spot.  Both things need to be true for it to happen.  

 

It also depends how far back Bills will go and if they feel good about who they can get there and with those other picks potentially.  

 

Conclusion:  Same as any year...they will trade back (or up) if it makes sense, or if a guy they covet is there just stay put and take said player.  

[Yantha]

The draft is a dance of "luck".  All this money goes into scouting, arguing over the draft board, and then when it all comes down to it, it's luck.  Star players in college can flop in the NFL.  And then there are plenty of examples of guys coming from small schools, undervalued in the draft, and then do very well in the NFL.  OR they are stuck on second team in college due sometimes due to politics..... and then flourish when out of being "under the thumb" of their college program.

 

There's something to be said about accumulating draft picks to have "more bingo cards......" in the game.....  but generally speaking, the CHANCE of landing a winner is better in the first round vs. the 4th or 5th.

 

Edit:  nice english...  must be tired.

Edited February 21, 2023 by Yantha

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Yantha said:

The draft is a dance of "luck".  All this money goes into scouting, arguing over the draft board, and then when it all comes down to it, it's luck.  Star players in college can flop in the NFL.  And then there are plenty of examples of guys coming from small schools, undervalued in the draft, and then do very well in the NFL.  OR they are stuck on second team in college due sometimes due to politics..... and then flourish when out of being "under the thumb" of their college program.

 

There's something to be said about accumulating draft picks to have "more bingo cards......" in the game.....  but generally speaking, the CHANCE of landing a winner is better in the first round vs. the 4th or 5th.

 

Edit:  nice english...  must be tired.

Some luck is involved but it's also a process of skill and evaluation. 

 

You can't sell the scouting department short and mitigate the draft process as getting lucky.

 

In today's football there are so many tools scouts have at their disposal. Analytics can used so probalities of success or lack of based on measurables. Think Oliver pick here. He dropped mostly due to lack of size. 

 

So yes luck is involved but it much more than that. 

Edited February 21, 2023 by newcam2012

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Yantha said:

The draft is a dance of "luck".  All this money goes into scouting, arguing over the draft board, and then when it all comes down to it, it's luck.  Star players in college can flop in the NFL.  And then there are plenty of examples of guys coming from small schools, undervalued in the draft, and then do very well in the NFL.  OR they are stuck on second team in college due sometimes due to politics..... and then flourish when out of being "under the thumb" of their college program.

 

There's something to be said about accumulating draft picks to have "more bingo cards......" in the game.....  but generally speaking, the CHANCE of landing a winner is better in the first round vs. the 4th or 5th.

 

Edit:  nice english...  must be tired.

 

A "dance of luck" yes and no.  Again, this is one of those areas where you can "make your luck."  

 

It's important when you scout to consider who the player you're looking at went up against.  If they're small school and logged all their stats and yards in situations that typically don't occur often in the NFL, it's probably a good idea to factor that in heavily.  Also look at the caliber of players that a player went up against, if those he didn't do anything against teams featuring individual opponents that are likely headed for the NFL, there's a good chance he'll struggle in the NFL as well.  Only makes sense.   

 

You can help yourself by drafting players that did well against other players that are headed for the NFL and against teams that often field them.  

 

IOW, if a player logs a ton of stats against Kent State, Akron, and Ball State, but does hardly anything against other teams, but putting up gawdy numbers and overall very good numbers against weaker competition, don't take 'em high.  Zay Jones was one of those for example.  He also played in a lot of games with 5 WR sets and when his team was hopelessly down.  This information is statistically available publicly, for teams not to avail themselves of it is remiss.  

 

 

[Einstein's Dog]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Of course there are hybrid variations between the two, I was trying to keep simple for sake of making the point. I suspect the Bills WILL in reality chart some sort of a middle course. You could extend Tremaine but still look at a trade market for Ed or you could extend Ed and lower his hit while letting Tremaine walk and of course you could do a combination of the 2017 generation and those who come after that in terms of restructures. There are multitude ways of cutting it but I was trying to show the parameters within which that falls. 

The hybrid I would like to see is one that transitions resources to the offense a little.  So no Poyer, no Edmunds, and look at possibly moving Ed.  Then you add a FA lb (cheaper Edmunds replacement), free agent OL (Saffold replacement), FA WR -this could be the one bigish ticket item an OBJ, or D Hop, or M Thomas.  Then draft an OL, and WR along w BPA of what is needed on D (another LB, Safety)

[newcam2012]

Agree. Letting Allen play Superman and relying on the defense to get stops isn't working. Especially evident in the playoffs where it counts.

 

The Bills have to rethink their course of action and plan accordingly. How likely is this to occur with the same people in charge?