Draft Strategy. Play to Beane’s strengths!

[PBF81]

6 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

A teardown seems unlikely. Since they are staying the course with the coaches I tend to think it's a plug the holes scenario. 

 

Whatever they choose to do, it requires someone that knows how to put cheap (aka drafted) talent into place.  This crew hasn't even sniffed being able to do that in five seasons.  Now they're on the cusp of lapping themselves in the cap hell situation, and we're in it for round two, .... I guess.  Doesn't sound all that inspiring to me.  

 

If history holds, we'll draft our players, be told how going against conventional wisdom in one or more ways will net us a big improvement in whatever facet they put forth.  The media will applaud us for having an A- Draft, and how couldn't it be with all of the holes we have, none of our rookies will make any kind of impact this season, we'll be having the same conversation next year, and over time we'll see that all of our day 1 & 2 picks aren't holding their draft status as to where they were selected, and one or two of our day 3 players we'll get rid of claiming that they're not needed while they go and do more than any of our other draft picks except elsewhere.  That's the established pattern here.  To wish upon a star for something different, well ...  LOL  

 

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by PBF81

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

A teardown doesn't really fit where the Bills are in any event. I can't think of a single team in my time watching the NFL who with a 27 year old top 5 QB decided to tear down? Maybe Houston the year before the Watson stuff came out.... but not sure that is a model to follow anyway given what has happened there since!

 

The Bills do have two options though this offseason - both almost certainly start with a Josh Allen restructure to free up $21m of space:

 

1. Kick the can some more and try and bring this core back again - I summarise the key elements of this option as:

• still probably letting Poyer walk;
• re-sign Edmunds;
• extend Oliver and lower the cap hit;
• restructure at least two of Diggs, Milano, Dawkins and White (Diggs gives you about $5.5m the rest can all give you about $4m each);
• replace Saffold with another mid-range FA guard;

2. Begin the re-load (not re-build) - I summarise the key elements of this option as:

• letting Poyer walk;
• letting Edmunds walk;
• exploring trade market for Ed Oliver;
• using some of the less valuable but easier restructures on younger guys (Johnson and Knox for example can give you c.$2m each - you might still need to take the $4m from Milano)
• sit out free agency (save for a couple of low value vets that don't affect comp pick formulas)

 

Which I think is preferable really depends on what the projections for the cap beyond 2023 look like. I know some think the cap could jump by nearly $20m again in 2024 and maybe even as much as $30m in 2025 as new TV and streaming revenues come on stream. But until those contracts are signed people don't know.

 

Option 1 would all but guarantee the Bills win the division again (save for any major injury that costs Josh games) but it would reduce your flexibility in 2024 and 2025 in terms of being able to move on from some of your older vet guys - the 2017 generation basically. It keeps the Bills in the spot they were last offseason and are before making moves this time where they are really looking to the draft and FA to find that one more special piece that makes the difference. 

 

Option 2 to me involves the Bills basically making 3 new starting holes on their defense to add to the 3 or 4 on their offense in a year when they only have 6 draft picks to address them (though you'd either get a starter or a pick back for Ed) and would rely on either some backups stepping up, some draft picks making an early impact or finding some extremely good value FAs. The advantage of that option is you'd be looking at potentially going into 2024 with as much as $35m of space (just by restructuring Josh forget any other deals) and somewhere between 8 and 10 draft picks. That allows you to re-shape your roster a bit more drastically. 

 

I think both are viable options. Option 2 probably makes 2023 a less obvious chance to contend but beyond that allows a pivot towards greater allocation on offense more quickly. Option 1 you can still make that pivot but it probably happens more gradually over 2-3 years rather than a quicker re-set. I'm sure the Bills (and the rest of the league) has a better sense of the future of the cap than I do based on reading a couple of articles but I think the more you genuinely see a cap "explosion" in 2023 and 2024 the more I lean towards option 1. The less sold I am on that happening the more I lean towards option 2. 

 

 

Great read!  

 

If those are the only two options, pursuing option 2 doesn't seem as if it would be particularly productive.  For that one to be productive, both short and more importantly longer term, it would require good drafting, something that Beane has done anything but proven a propensity for.  Even in free-agency he's hit-n-miss on "proven" players.  

 

Either way, I wouldn't put a lot of money on the notion that we win the division this coming season, which is disappointing as most of us had assumed that we'd be winning the division for years to come as was I.  Oh well ... 

 

I'm also not in the camp that prefers to have a weak division so that we can win it, like the Pats for 20 years.  I prefer some competition, although I wouldn't want to be in the same division with both Cinci and KC for example, but having the Fins, Jets, and meh, maybe even the Pats be competitive IMO is a good thing and helps come playoff time.  

[GunnerBill]

11 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Great read!  

 

If those are the only two options, pursuing option 2 doesn't seem as if it would be particularly productive.  For that one to be productive, both short and more importantly longer term, it would require good drafting, something that Beane has done anything but proven a propensity for.  Even in free-agency he's hit-n-miss on "proven" players.  

 

Either way, I wouldn't put a lot of money on the notion that we win the division this coming season, which is disappointing as most of us had assumed that we'd be winning the division for years to come as was I.  Oh well ... 

 

I'm also not in the camp that prefers to have a weak division so that we can win it, like the Pats for 20 years.  I prefer some competition, although I wouldn't want to be in the same division with both Cinci and KC for example, but having the Fins, Jets, and meh, maybe even the Pats be competitive IMO is a good thing and helps come playoff time.  

 

If the Bills run it back with pretty much this roster they have enough of an advantage with Josh to win this division. I am pretty convinced of that. Should they create additional holes to try and re-set the roster next year that does bring the Dolphins and the Jets into play IMO. Depending on whst they do in the offseason.

[Nextmanup]

Here, here!  

 

This is a solid idea.  For all intensive purposes, we can't hit first round picks anyway.  They're coaching department just can't get the job done for some reason.  I like the crew assembled, but for some reason, there record just isn't good.

 

Who knows, maybe we'll do a blockbuster trade and give away all our picks, and then this will all be mute anyway.

 

 

[T master]

9 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Alright, hear me out.  Brandon Beane has proven that he can’t consistently hit on 1st/2nd round picks.  Let’s be honest.  We are going to have a lot of holes to fill after the FA bloodbath.  
 

Since Beane tends to hit on mid-late round prospects, let’s trade out of the 1st and 2nd round altogether.  Accumulate as many 3rd-5th round picks as possible.  Thanks for reading.

 

Let me know what you think in the comments.  Like and subscribe.

 

If they could get some players that they could get lucky with like a Wyatt Teller or Gabe that didn't need developing that might work well but the Bills are in the win now mode so they need plug & play guys & even last year with the likes of Shakir being praised as a steel he wasn't used much which i think is a flaw .

 

The Bills lost Hodgins this year & Let Blackshear walk last year & both of those players could have produced better than Mckenzie & Moss so i think it is just the thing of using more of those players that they have & drafted because they produce even if it is in pre season give them more reps because you know what the others have shown to that point .

 

Which i guess does go to your point of getting more lower round draft picks to a point .

Edited February 20, 2023 by T master

[RG Murdock]

Remember this post... Beane's going to sign BOTH Edmunds and Poyer! He realizes that the Bills D is not nearly the same without BOTH. Realizes they have NO replacement for EITHER. Poyer gets a front loaded 3 year $30M contract ($25M guaranteed). and Edmunds gets a 5 year $90M contract ($80M guaranteed, with lessor cap hits the first 2 years). Both slightly less then market values, but both elect to stay. Go Bills!!

[Johnny Hammersticks]

It’s all about playing the odds, really.  Say we could get some team’s 3rd, 4th & 5th for our 1st round pick, and then someone’s 4th, 5th & 7th for our 2nd round pick.  That’s 6 picks in those middle rounds.  That’s guys like Taron Johnson, Wyatt Teller, Gabe Davis and Matt Milano.  I sure wouldn’t hate that.  The proof is in the pudding, folks!

[biggerdaddynj]

Maybe he’ll trade up for version two of Cody Ford.

[PBF81]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

If the Bills run it back with pretty much this roster they have enough of an advantage with Josh to win this division. I am pretty convinced of that. Should they create additional holes to try and re-set the roster next year that does bring the Dolphins and the Jets into play IMO. Depending on whst they do in the offseason.

 

Agreed, but at the same time I'm not penciling is in for 13 wins again either, I think that the holes in our Defense are going to cost us this season.

 

Also, I'm thinking that the Jets & Fins are both going to improve and they were already competitive this season.  

[Johnny Hammersticks]

3 hours ago, Herb Nightly said:

You're dreaming if you assume they would get "5 or 6 starters" ,certainly not IMMEDIATE starters.

But,sure,plug a lot of day 2 picks in there, consider them nominally,  starters.  

The odds of making a roster drop significantly for day 2 and day 3 picks. 

Bills need immediate impact players. And,if you say Beane fails in the early rounds, why do you think he can draft well LATER? He either can draft ,or he cant. 

This year's draft might be especially critical in light of Buffalo's cap situation. 

I might consider a move down in the 1st,and don't forget the possibility of trading picks for veterans. That would ensure some value for a pick.

Is it wrong to dream?  If we didn’t have dreamers in this world, Herb, we wouldn’t have things like the electric car, space travel, and crotch wigs.  Give me 6-7 picks in rounds 3 through 5 all day long.  Beane will find 4-5 immediate plug and play starters.  Book it.

[mabden]

11 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Just think of gaining 5-6 starters who are high motor, lunch pail guys.  Versus two pre-madonnas that Beane totally whiffs on.  I’m just connecting the dots here.  

 

Apologies upfront, but what "prima donnas' has Beane drafted in the 1st and 2nd round?

 

Allen?

Edmunds?

Oliver?

Rousseau?

Elam?

Epenesa?

Basham?

Cook?

maybe some of these picks (Oliver, Epenesa, Basham) haven't lived up to 1st or 2nd round expectations, but prima donnas, no way.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

1 minute ago, mabden said:

 

Apologies upfront, but what "prima donnas' has Beane drafted in the 1st and 2nd round?

 

Allen?

Edmunds?

Oliver?

Rousseau?

Elam?

Epenesa?

Basham?

Cook?

maybe some of these picks (Oliver, Epenesa, Basham) haven't lived up to 1st or 2nd round expectations, but prima donnas, no way.

Irregardless, I could care less about a player’s character at this point.  If they’re drafted in the first two rounds they better damn well be more than average rotational players.  Quantity is usually better than quality in the long run.  

It’s like a buddy of mine.  When we used to go out chasing the ladies he would hit on every single girl in the bar.  He always took one home.  Now, sometimes the girl looked like Abe Vigota, but that’s beside the point.  She was a starter, mabden.  A real plug and play starter.  You feel me?

[Thurman#1]

11 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Alright, hear me out.  Brandon Beane has proven that he can’t consistently hit on 1st/2nd round picks.  Let’s be honest.  We are going to have a lot of holes to fill after the FA bloodbath.  
 

Since Beane tends to hit on mid-late round prospects, let’s trade out of the 1st and 2nd round altogether.  Accumulate as many 3rd-5th round picks as possible.  Thanks for reading.

 

Let me know what you think in the comments.  Like and subscribe.

 

 

His first round picks have been plenty good. Two bad 2nd round picks and the rest are OK or not sure yet.

 

I get that this was a feeble attempt at humor, but keep your mitts off the first round. It doesn't make sense.

 

Out of six first round picks, two have been terrific, Allen and Tre, Edmunds has been good, Rousseau is still a bit early but looks like a good deal. Oliver is a very good player, though not a great bargain where we drafted him. Elam started to look really good in the playoffs, he show every sign of starting to really get it.

 

Not to mention getting Diggs for his other pick.

 

And their latest 2nd, Cook, also looks like he was really picking things up near the end.

 

 

2 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Great read!  

 

If those are the only two options, pursuing option 2 doesn't seem as if it would be particularly productive.  For that one to be productive, both short and more importantly longer term, it would require good drafting, something that Beane has done anything but proven a propensity for.  Even in free-agency he's hit-n-miss on "proven" players.  

 

Either way, I wouldn't put a lot of money on the notion that we win the division this coming season, which is disappointing as most of us had assumed that we'd be winning the division for years to come as was I.  Oh well ... 

 

I'm also not in the camp that prefers to have a weak division so that we can win it, like the Pats for 20 years.  I prefer some competition, although I wouldn't want to be in the same division with both Cinci and KC for example, but having the Fins, Jets, and meh, maybe even the Pats be competitive IMO is a good thing and helps come playoff time.  

 

 

I don't blame you for not wanting to put money on winning the division this coming year. I mean, who wants to win money? It's such filthy corrupting stuff.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

 

Whatever they choose to do, it requires someone that knows how to put cheap (aka drafted) talent into place.  This crew hasn't even sniffed being able to do that in five seasons.  Now they're on the cusp of lapping themselves in the cap hell situation, and we're in it for round two, .... I guess.  Doesn't sound all that inspiring to me.  

 

If history holds, we'll draft our players, be told how going against conventional wisdom in one or more ways will net us a big improvement in whatever facet they put forth.  The media will applaud us for having an A- Draft, and how couldn't it be with all of the holes we have, none of our rookies will make any kind of impact this season, we'll be having the same conversation next year, and over time we'll see that all of our day 1 & 2 picks aren't holding their draft status as to where they were selected, and one or two of our day 3 players we'll get rid of claiming that they're not needed while they go and do more than any of our other draft picks except elsewhere.  That's the established pattern here.  To wish upon a star for something different, well ...  LOL  

 

 

 

 

Dude, this is flat-out ridiculous. It's just dumb.

 

You're talking about a 3-loss team that starts more draftees than guys who got there other ways.

 

They draft well. Far from perfectly, but well.

 

The established pattern here is to have a team with legitimate Super Bowl aspirations for several years in a row now, and it'll likely be so next year as well.

 

 

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

A teardown doesn't really fit where the Bills are in any event. I can't think of a single team in my time watching the NFL who with a 27 year old top 5 QB decided to tear down? Maybe Houston the year before the Watson stuff came out.... but not sure that is a model to follow anyway given what has happened there since!

 

The Bills do have two options though this offseason - both almost certainly start with a Josh Allen restructure to free up $21m of space:

 

1. Kick the can some more and try and bring this core back again - I summarise the key elements of this option as:

• still probably letting Poyer walk;
• re-sign Edmunds;
• extend Oliver and lower the cap hit;
• restructure at least two of Diggs, Milano, Dawkins and White (Diggs gives you about $5.5m the rest can all give you about $4m each);
• replace Saffold with another mid-range FA guard;

2. Begin the re-load (not re-build) - I summarise the key elements of this option as:

• letting Poyer walk;
• letting Edmunds walk;
• exploring trade market for Ed Oliver;
• using some of the less valuable but easier restructures on younger guys (Johnson and Knox for example can give you c.$2m each - you might still need to take the $4m from Milano)
• sit out free agency (save for a couple of low value vets that don't affect comp pick formulas)

 

Which I think is preferable really depends on what the projections for the cap beyond 2023 look like. I know some think the cap could jump by nearly $20m again in 2024 and maybe even as much as $30m in 2025 as new TV and streaming revenues come on stream. But until those contracts are signed people don't know.

 

Option 1 would all but guarantee the Bills win the division again (save for any major injury that costs Josh games) but it would reduce your flexibility in 2024 and 2025 in terms of being able to move on from some of your older vet guys - the 2017 generation basically. It keeps the Bills in the spot they were last offseason and are before making moves this time where they are really looking to the draft and FA to find that one more special piece that makes the difference. 

 

Option 2 to me involves the Bills basically making 3 new starting holes on their defense to add to the 3 or 4 on their offense in a year when they only have 6 draft picks to address them (though you'd either get a starter or a pick back for Ed) and would rely on either some backups stepping up, some draft picks making an early impact or finding some extremely good value FAs. The advantage of that option is you'd be looking at potentially going into 2024 with as much as $35m of space (just by restructuring Josh forget any other deals) and somewhere between 8 and 10 draft picks. That allows you to re-shape your roster a bit more drastically. 

 

I think both are viable options. Option 2 probably makes 2023 a less obvious chance to contend but beyond that allows a pivot towards greater allocation on offense more quickly. Option 1 you can still make that pivot but it probably happens more gradually over 2-3 years rather than a quicker re-set. I'm sure the Bills (and the rest of the league) has a better sense of the future of the cap than I do based on reading a couple of articles but I think the more you genuinely see a cap "explosion" in 2023 and 2024 the more I lean towards option 1. The less sold I am on that happening the more I lean towards option 2. 

 

Excellent analysis!  Given the unpredictable nature of NFL personnel moves, we may actually see elements from both of your options.  I'm probably more optimistic than most of the people posting comments on this site.  I do think that the play of several Bills ( White, Dawkins, Brown, Poyer, Oliver, Phillips, Davis, etc. ) were effected by past and current injuries.  Contrary to the thoughts of some, I believe Beane will make the right moves to keep the team moving forward.  I have also seen the cap growth projections for 2024 and 2025.  These will factor into Beane's actions during this off season.

[Buffalo Junction]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ed Oliver is better than an average starter. He isn't consistently dominant which I know is what you hope for from a top 10 pick so I can take disappointing. But that doesn't make him average. When he was fully healthy this past year he was one of our better players.

As good as Oliver can be at times, he tends to not be a primary difference maker. He will beat 1 v 1 matchups and often not they washed by double teams, but if you take out Von and/ Jones he tends to perform in the average range. By that I mean he doesn’t make splash plays often or usually keep the second blocker in a combo from climbing to the second level. 
 

That said, him not developing further could be due to injuries, or it might be on coaching. I don’t have an answer there, but I do think he has the potential to improve. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, Thurman#1 said:

Dude, this is flat-out ridiculous. It's just dumb.

 

Thank you!  🙄😂🤣😂

[hondo in seattle]

13 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Alright, hear me out.  Brandon Beane has proven that he can’t consistently hit on 1st/2nd round picks.  Let’s be honest.  We are going to have a lot of holes to fill after the FA bloodbath.  
 

Since Beane tends to hit on mid-late round prospects, let’s trade out of the 1st and 2nd round altogether.  Accumulate as many 3rd-5th round picks as possible.  Thanks for reading.

 

Let me know what you think in the comments.  Like and subscribe.

 

This is actually humorously logical.  

 

But while Beane has thus far been far from perfect in the early rounds, we do have to give him credit for Josh. 

 

And I'd hate to give up 1st and 2nd round picks.  When you look at a much bigger sample of all teams over the past 20 years or more (instead of just looking at Beane's picks the past few years), the probability of getting a high-quality starter is much higher in the early rounds.   The Bills need more high-quality starters and fewer jags.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

10 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

This is actually humorously logical.  

 

But while Beane has thus far been far from perfect in the early rounds, we do have to give him credit for Josh. 

 

And I'd hate to give up 1st and 2nd round picks.  When you look at a much bigger sample of all teams over the past 20 years or more (instead of just looking at Beane's picks the past few years), the probability of getting a high-quality starter is much higher in the early rounds.   The Bills need more high-quality starters and fewer jags.

 

For every Cody Ford there is a Wyatt Teller.  For every Boogie Basham there is a Matt Milano.  Would you rather have one Boogie Basham or three Matt Milanos?  The math seems simple to me.  Step into my office.

 

 

[Johnny Hammersticks]

12 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Clearly amyl induced, but I like the idea of trading down in round 1.

Well, only partly but I’m totally serious about this.

 

5 hours ago, entropyrules said:

nah i am leaning more toward schrooms

 

Got any?