Draft Strategy. Play to Beane’s strengths!

[Johnny Hammersticks]

Alright, hear me out.  Brandon Beane has proven that he can’t consistently hit on 1st/2nd round picks.  Let’s be honest.  We are going to have a lot of holes to fill after the FA bloodbath.  
 

Since Beane tends to hit on mid-late round prospects, let’s trade out of the 1st and 2nd round altogether.  Accumulate as many 3rd-5th round picks as possible.  Thanks for reading.

 

Let me know what you think in the comments.  Like and subscribe.

[newcam2012]

2 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Alright, hear me out.  Brandon Beane has proven that he can’t consistently hit on 1st/2nd round picks.  Let’s be honest.  We are going to have a lot of holes to fill after the FA bloodbath.  
 

Since Beane tends to hit on mid-late round prospects, let’s trade out of the 1st and 2nd round altogether.  Accumulate as many 3rd-5th round picks as possible.  Thanks for reading.

 

Let me know what you think in the comments.  Like and subscribe.

The Bills need impact players. Most impact players come from the early rounds.

 

This is a flawed strategy. Of course depending on a teams board they can trade up and down. 

 

A GM and it's scouting staff has to be able to make sound early picks. If they can't changes need to be made.

 

I agree Beane's track record in early rounds isn't great. But you can't just throw in the towel and concede that you are incompetent to make good early picks. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by newcam2012

[Johnny Hammersticks]

6 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The Bills need impact players. Most impact players cone from the early rounds.

 

This is a flawed strategy. Of course depending on a teams board they can trade up and down. 

 

A GM and it's scouting staff has to be able to make sound early picks. If they can't changes need to be made.

 

I agree Beane's track record in early rounds isn't great. But you can't just throw in the towel and concert that you are incompetent to make good early picks. 

Just think of gaining 5-6 starters who are high motor, lunch pail guys.  Versus two pre-madonnas that Beane totally whiffs on.  I’m just connecting the dots here.  

[BIGBOY]

1 hour ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Alright, hear me out.  Brandon Beane has proven that he can’t consistently hit on 1st/2nd round picks.  Let’s be honest.  We are going to have a lot of holes to fill after the FA bloodbath.  
 

Since Beane tends to hit on mid-late round prospects, let’s trade out of the 1st and 2nd round altogether.  Accumulate as many 3rd-5th round picks as possible.  Thanks for reading.

 

Let me know what you think in the comments.  Like and subscribe.

I hardly ever come on here and this is the first thing I clicked in. What a bizarre take. Fantastic name though, sir. 

[Johnny Hammersticks]

4 minutes ago, BIGBOY said:

I hardly ever come on here and this is the first thing I clicked in. What a bizarre take. Fantastic name though, sir. 

Well, name recognize name, @BIGBOY.  My takes tend to be bizarre in general.  I doubt I will ever make it to the bigs, but if you plant corn you tend to GET corn.  Nah-mean?

[Dr.Sack]

Two options as I see it: Option #1 Teardown and start over, Option #2 plug holes. 

 

[Freddie's Dead]

Clearly amyl induced, but I like the idea of trading down in round 1.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Dr.Sack said:

Two options as I see it: Option #1 Teardown and start over, Option #2 plug holes. 

 

A teardown seems unlikely. Since they are staying the course with the coaches I tend to think it's a plug the holes scenario. 

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

A teardown seems unlikely. Since they are staying the course with the coaches I tend to think it's a plug the holes scenario. 

 

A teardown doesn't really fit where the Bills are in any event. I can't think of a single team in my time watching the NFL who with a 27 year old top 5 QB decided to tear down? Maybe Houston the year before the Watson stuff came out.... but not sure that is a model to follow anyway given what has happened there since!

 

The Bills do have two options though this offseason - both almost certainly start with a Josh Allen restructure to free up $21m of space:

 

1. Kick the can some more and try and bring this core back again - I summarise the key elements of this option as:

• still probably letting Poyer walk;
• re-sign Edmunds;
• extend Oliver and lower the cap hit;
• restructure at least two of Diggs, Milano, Dawkins and White (Diggs gives you about $5.5m the rest can all give you about $4m each);
• replace Saffold with another mid-range FA guard;

2. Begin the re-load (not re-build) - I summarise the key elements of this option as:

• letting Poyer walk;
• letting Edmunds walk;
• exploring trade market for Ed Oliver;
• using some of the less valuable but easier restructures on younger guys (Johnson and Knox for example can give you c.$2m each - you might still need to take the $4m from Milano)
• sit out free agency (save for a couple of low value vets that don't affect comp pick formulas)

 

Which I think is preferable really depends on what the projections for the cap beyond 2023 look like. I know some think the cap could jump by nearly $20m again in 2024 and maybe even as much as $30m in 2025 as new TV and streaming revenues come on stream. But until those contracts are signed people don't know.

 

Option 1 would all but guarantee the Bills win the division again (save for any major injury that costs Josh games) but it would reduce your flexibility in 2024 and 2025 in terms of being able to move on from some of your older vet guys - the 2017 generation basically. It keeps the Bills in the spot they were last offseason and are before making moves this time where they are really looking to the draft and FA to find that one more special piece that makes the difference. 

 

Option 2 to me involves the Bills basically making 3 new starting holes on their defense to add to the 3 or 4 on their offense in a year when they only have 6 draft picks to address them (though you'd either get a starter or a pick back for Ed) and would rely on either some backups stepping up, some draft picks making an early impact or finding some extremely good value FAs. The advantage of that option is you'd be looking at potentially going into 2024 with as much as $35m of space (just by restructuring Josh forget any other deals) and somewhere between 8 and 10 draft picks. That allows you to re-shape your roster a bit more drastically. 

 

I think both are viable options. Option 2 probably makes 2023 a less obvious chance to contend but beyond that allows a pivot towards greater allocation on offense more quickly. Option 1 you can still make that pivot but it probably happens more gradually over 2-3 years rather than a quicker re-set. I'm sure the Bills (and the rest of the league) has a better sense of the future of the cap than I do based on reading a couple of articles but I think the more you genuinely see a cap "explosion" in 2023 and 2024 the more I lean towards option 1. The less sold I am on that happening the more I lean towards option 2. 

 

Edited February 20, 2023 by GunnerBill

[Simon Says]

7 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Just think of gaining 5-6 starters who are high motor, lunch pail guys.  Versus two pre-madonnas that Beane totally whiffs on.  I’m just connecting the dots here.  

You're dreaming if you assume they would get "5 or 6 starters" ,certainly not IMMEDIATE starters.

But,sure,plug a lot of day 2 picks in there, consider them nominally,  starters.  

The odds of making a roster drop significantly for day 2 and day 3 picks. 

Bills need immediate impact players. And,if you say Beane fails in the early rounds, why do you think he can draft well LATER? He either can draft ,or he cant. 

This year's draft might be especially critical in light of Buffalo's cap situation. 

I might consider a move down in the 1st,and don't forget the possibility of trading picks for veterans. That would ensure some value for a pick.

Edited February 20, 2023 by Herb Nightly
Spelling

[Manther]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

A teardown doesn't really fit where the Bills are in any event. I can't think of a single team in my time watching the NFL who with a 27 year old top 5 QB decided to tear down? Maybe Houston the year before the Watson stuff came out.... but not sure that is a model to follow anyway given what has happened there since!

 

The Bills do have two options though this offseason - both almost certainly start with a Josh Allen restructure to free up $21m of space:

 

1. Kick the can some more and try and bring this core back again - I summarise the key elements of this option as:

• still probably letting Poyer walk;
• re-sign Edmunds;
• extend Oliver and lower the cap hit;
• restructure at least two of Diggs, Milano, Dawkins and White (Diggs gives you about $5.5m the rest can all give you about $4m each);
• replace Saffold with another mid-range FA guard;

2. Begin the re-load (not re-build) - I summarise the key elements of this option as:

• letting Poyer walk;
• letting Edmunds walk;
• exploring trade market for Ed Oliver;
• using some of the less valuable but easier restructures on younger guys (Johnson and Knox for example can give you c.$2m each - you might still need to take the $4m from Milano)
• sit out free agency (save for a couple of low value vets that don't affect comp pick formulas)

 

Which I think is preferable really depends on what the projections for the cap beyond 2023 look like. I know some think the cap could jump by nearly $20m again in 2024 and maybe even as much as $30m in 2025 as new TV and streaming revenues come on stream. But until those contracts are signed people don't know.

 

Option 1 would all but guarantee the Bills win the division again (save for any major injury that costs Josh games) but it would reduce your flexibility in 2024 and 2025 in terms of being able to move on from some of your older vet guys - the 2017 generation basically. It keeps the Bills in the spot they were last offseason and are before making moves this time where they are really looking to the draft and FA to find that one more special piece that makes the difference. 

 

Option 2 to me involves the Bills basically making 3 new starting holes on their defense to add to the 3 or 4 on their offense in a year when they only have 6 draft picks to address them (though you'd either get a starter or a pick back for Ed) and would rely on either some backups stepping up, some draft picks making an early impact or finding some extremely good value FAs. The advantage of that option is you'd be looking at potentially going into 2024 with as much as $35m of space (just by restructuring Josh forget any other deals) and somewhere between 8 and 10 draft picks. That allows you to re-shape your roster a bit more drastically. 

 

I think both are viable options. Option 2 probably makes 2023 a less obvious chance to contend but beyond that allows a pivot towards greater allocation on offense more quickly. Option 1 you can still make that pivot but it probably happens more gradually over 2-3 years rather than a quicker re-set. I'm sure the Bills (and the rest of the league) has a better sense of the future of the cap than I do based on reading a couple of articles but I think the more you genuinely see a cap "explosion" in 2023 and 2024 the more I lean towards option 1. The less sold I am on that happening the more I lean towards option 2. 

 

Gunner, thanks for the great and easy to understand synopsis.  

 

I strongly prefer option 2.  With option 2 I think the Bills still win the Division in 2023.  With option 2 I think the Bills can move towards a SB contender again.  

 

The Bills need to reload and they need to reallocate their resources to different positions which includes sides of the ball.

 

Beane needs to have an above average draft to help our team move forward regardless of option 1 or 2.  Beane needs multiple good drafts consecutively to lead us to be Championship caliber team.

 

The NFL is an offense driven league, we need to lead with offense!  

 

Bills flaws (fix some, not all and we have a chance).....

 

- McD as a HC is a Defensive HC

- OC needs to learn and make drastic improvements

_ DC is old, the game has passed him by and will not make changes

- Bills Cap and resources are allocated to the D

- Dline is a rotation, many resources are allocated to the Dline which are part time players

- Oline needs more resources and strong players

- Oline will prolong JA17's career (longevity and successes)

 

[Chaos]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

sit out free agency (save for a couple of low value vets that don't affect comp pick formulas)

Why not an option 1A where the Salary Cap saved by resigning Edmunds is used to improve the oline, and Edmunds is replaced in the draft? 

[NI Bills Fan]

Whilst Beane's success in early rounds is certainly up for debate... To give up the chance of drafting another Allen level talent for an extra Spencer Brown or Terrel Bernard is not a sound strategy in my opinion.

 

Also, a suggestion for the site admins... Could we get a 'Hear me Out' thread warning added? 😊

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Chaos said:

Why not an option 1A where the Salary Cap saved by resigning Edmunds is used to improve the oline, and Edmunds is replaced in the draft? 

 

Of course there are hybrid variations between the two, I was trying to keep simple for sake of making the point. I suspect the Bills WILL in reality chart some sort of a middle course. You could extend Tremaine but still look at a trade market for Ed or you could extend Ed and lower his hit while letting Tremaine walk and of course you could do a combination of the 2017 generation and those who come after that in terms of restructures. There are multitude ways of cutting it but I was trying to show the parameters within which that falls. 

[Buffalo Junction]

Playing to Beane’s strengths would be trading 2nd and 3rd round picks for starters and drafting rounds 1, 4, 5, 6 & 7. His first round record isn’t bad; Allen (top 3 QB), Edmunds (gonna get $18+MM), trade for Diggs (all pro), Oliver (average starter), Rousseau (stout starting DE that’s improving), Elam (showed flashes). Oliver has been disappointing, but he was a consensus top 10 talent. 

[entropyrules]

6 hours ago, Freddie's Dead said:

Clearly amyl induced, but I like the idea of trading down in round 1.

nah i am leaning more toward schrooms

[newcam2012]

32 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

A teardown doesn't really fit where the Bills are in any event. I can't think of a single team in my time watching the NFL who with a 27 year old top 5 QB decided to tear down? Maybe Houston the year before the Watson stuff came out.... but not sure that is a model to follow anyway given what has happened there since!

 

The Bills do have two options though this offseason - both almost certainly start with a Josh Allen restructure to free up $21m of space:

 

1. Kick the can some more and try and bring this core back again - I summarise the key elements of this option as:

• still probably letting Poyer walk;
• re-sign Edmunds;
• extend Oliver and lower the cap hit;
• restructure at least two of Diggs, Milano, Dawkins and White (Diggs gives you about $5.5m the rest can all give you about $4m each);
• replace Saffold with another mid-range FA guard;

2. Begin the re-load (not re-build) - I summarise the key elements of this option as:

• letting Poyer walk;
• letting Edmunds walk;
• exploring trade market for Ed Oliver;
• using some of the less valuable but easier restructures on younger guys (Johnson and Knox for example can give you c.$2m each - you might still need to take the $4m from Milano)
• sit out free agency (save for a couple of low value vets that don't affect comp pick formulas)

 

Which I think is preferable really depends on what the projections for the cap beyond 2023 look like. I know some think the cap could jump by nearly $20m again in 2024 and maybe even as much as $30m in 2025 as new TV and streaming revenues come on stream. But until those contracts are signed people don't know.

 

Option 1 would all but guarantee the Bills win the division again (save for any major injury that costs Josh games) but it would reduce your flexibility in 2024 and 2025 in terms of being able to move on from some of your older vet guys - the 2017 generation basically. It keeps the Bills in the spot they were last offseason and are before making moves this time where they are really looking to the draft and FA to find that one more special piece that makes the difference. 

 

Option 2 to me involves the Bills basically making 3 new starting holes on their defense to add to the 3 or 4 on their offense in a year when they only have 6 draft picks to address them (though you'd either get a starter or a pick back for Ed) and would rely on either some backups stepping up, some draft picks making an early impact or finding some extremely good value FAs. The advantage of that option is you'd be looking at potentially going into 2024 with as much as $35m of space (just by restructuring Josh forget any other deals) and somewhere between 8 and 10 draft picks. That allows you to re-shape your roster a bit more drastically. 

 

I think both are viable options. Option 2 probably makes 2023 a less obvious chance to contend but beyond that allows a pivot towards greater allocation on offense more quickly. Option 1 you can still make that pivot but it probably happens more gradually over 2-3 years rather than a quicker re-set. I'm sure the Bills (and the rest of the league) has a better sense of the future of the cap than I do based on reading a couple of articles but I think the more you genuinely see a cap "explosion" in 2023 and 2024 the more I lean towards option 1. The less sold I am on that happening the more I lean towards option 2. 

 

Fantastic breakdown and analysis. Really enjoyed the detail and rational behind your post. Great read Gunner.

 

I prefer option #2 and it's not really close. I'm probably in the minority and my reasoning might be flawed. Let me elaborate.

 

Option 1 seems to be more of a win now mode. Imho, the Bills under scenario 1 just won't be good enough to reach the Super Bowl. Feels like it's another early exit from the playoffs. To be honest I don't think it's an easy division title. The necessary holes and weaknesses of the team are too much to overcome. Add in the same coaching staff and similar schemes. This seems to bolster the end result mentioned above. Plus, as you implied this option might not be ideal for the following years.

 

Option 2 as a reload is my preferred decision. I feel like the upcoming season isn't going to produce a Super Bowl appearance or a Lombardi Trophy. Truthfully, I'm not all that interested in another early playoff exit. As a result, I'd rather sacrifice a little this year to get a lot better next year. 

 

I know many will disagree. That's fine and that's the beauty of this forum. 

 

Lastly, I would prefer an option 3 which would consist of getting new coaches at both coordinator positions. Fraizer would be at the top of the list. Dorsey really held back the team with his inexperience and lack of ingenuity. Coach McD is a great feel good story and a high character guy. However, he lacks nasty and his style is losing steam. Two years in a row he's really failed in dramatic fashion. 13 seconds and a unprepared and out coached performance vs Cinci. As some point, the coaches have to be held accountable. 

[GunnerBill]

27 minutes ago, Buffalo Junction said:

Playing to Beane’s strengths would be trading 2nd and 3rd round picks for starters and drafting rounds 1, 4, 5, 6 & 7. His first round record isn’t bad; Allen (top 3 QB), Edmunds (gonna get $18+MM), trade for Diggs (all pro), Oliver (average starter), Rousseau (stout starting DE that’s improving), Elam (showed flashes). Oliver has been disappointing, but he was a consensus top 10 talent. 

 

Ed Oliver is better than an average starter. He isn't consistently dominant which I know is what you hope for from a top 10 pick so I can take disappointing. But that doesn't make him average. When he was fully healthy this past year he was one of our better players.

 

11 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Fantastic breakdown and analysis. Really enjoyed the detail and rational behind your post. Great read Gunner.

 

I prefer option #2 and it's not really close. I'm probably in the minority and my reasoning might be flawed. Let me elaborate.

 

Option 1 seems to be more of a win now mode. Imho, the Bills under scenario 1 just won't be good enough to reach the Super Bowl. Feels like it's another early exit from the playoffs. To be honest I don't think it's an easy division title. The necessary holes and weaknesses of the team are too much to overcome. Add in the same coaching staff and similar schemes. This seems to bolster the end result mentioned above. Plus, as you implied this option might not be ideal for the following years.

 

Option 2 as a reload is my preferred decision. I feel like the upcoming season isn't going to produce a Super Bowl appearance or a Lombardi Trophy. Truthfully, I'm not all that interested in another early playoff exit. As a result, I'd rather sacrifice a little this year to get a lot better next year. 

 

I know many will disagree. That's fine and that's the beauty of this forum. 

 

Lastly, I would prefer an option 3 which would consist of getting new coaches at both coordinator positions. Fraizer would be at the top of the list. Dorsey really held back the team with his inexperience and lack of ingenuity. Coach McD is a great feel good story and a high character guy. However, he lacks nasty and his style is losing steam. Two years in a row he's really failed in dramatic fashion. 13 seconds and a unprepared and out coached performance vs Cinci. As some point, the coaches have to be held accountable. 

 

Yea we disagree on the level of a coaching problem that the Bills have. They don't have Andy Reid, sure. But I do not think McDermott or the coordinators are the major issue and that is why we are in different places on what the right answer is. I do think it is close between the two options and as I said above to @Chaos I expect the Bills to end up with something of a hybrid between the two. 

Edited February 20, 2023 by GunnerBill

[PBF81]

So give away all of our biggest picks for later round picks, most of whom we'd have to cut anyway for lack of roster space, then assess which ones are good, like Teller and Hodgins, send them packing, and keep the ones that are of backup caliber yet will end up starting?  

 

That seems to be Beane's strength.  

 

And when it gets to a point where a team has to work around the normal facets of the draft to attempt to overcome the weaknesses of the architect of the Draft, isn't that kind of a signal for something?  Just sayin' ... 

[damj]

8 hours ago, Johnny Hammersticks said:

Alright, hear me out.  Brandon Beane has proven that he can’t consistently hit on 1st/2nd round picks.  Let’s be honest.  We are going to have a lot of holes to fill after the FA bloodbath.  
 

Since Beane tends to hit on mid-late round prospects, let’s trade out of the 1st and 2nd round altogether.  Accumulate as many 3rd-5th round picks as possible.  Thanks for reading.

 

Let me know what you think in the comments.  Like and subscribe.

Not trade out of those rounds, but be willing to trade down if the right player at the right position is not available. We need quantity AND quality.