We need some luck

[Andy1]

4 hours ago, Shortchaz said:

It might feel like 20% but it’s probably closer to 1%. the margins are so thin, even between the best and worst teams, in the NFL a few “lucky” bounces can make all the difference in outcome.

 

had an interesting conversation during the superbowl about this topic. I’m surprised with all the metrics around that someone hasn’t quantified it. (Maybe they have, I’m too lazy to look) 
 

 

Sounds like you agree it is much more than 1% of the formula for playoff teams. One of these seasons, Lady Luck will shine on the Bills. With all the adversity the team dealt with, this was definitely not the year. 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

I guess you are talking about McDermott referencing the Japanese Kaizen approach to business---focusing on constant improvement.

 

I have to disagree here.  Just because he wants to get better and is trying to get better doesn't mean he will get better.  Though in his defense, he HAS gotten bette at certain in-game tactical sorts of things.  Others, he has remained horrible at.  We still have no smartly designed, effective, call review system in place, which is indefensible.

 

 

 

 

 

 

I was skeptical of McDermott's ceiling as well but I have to admit he has improved in a lot of areas.    He has become one of the best at deciding when to go for it on 4th down or when to kick the ball.........which I thought he was Jauronian at early in his career.    He has mostly embraced being a pass first offense.   I agree that he seems pretty stubborn about his defense but from an analytics viewpoint I suspect that ranking at the top of the league the past two years reflects favorably on that obstinance.    

 

What I am MOST disappointed in McD is his inability to make broad adjustments to certain opponents the way Lou Anarumo does with Cinci.   The biggest argument for keeping an expensive back 7 intact for all these years should be that they should become great at adapting and confusing opponents.   Instead,  against the best QB'd opponents in the playoffs they've been fish in a barrel over and over.   

[nosejob]

On 2/17/2023 at 6:51 PM, Einstein said:

2021 was our season.

 

The stars aligned.

 

Allen was on fire in the playoffs.

 

Gabe’s brick hands suddenly turned to perfectly conditioned leather mits filled with stick-em.

 

Then McFrazier happened…

We had quite a daunting schedule this year opening on the road against the champs, then Tenn., to heat stroke in Miami and finished with 3 losses totaling 8 pts.

We had crazy adverse events and still got to host 2 playoff games at home. Then McFrazier happened.

Edited February 19, 2023 by nosejob

[Don Otreply]

I hear what the OP is getting at, we do need some luck, but more so than that, we need a competent O-Line and a better #2 WR, as well as some real innovation with our OC’s & DC’s play designs…,  now where’s that horse, and what did i do with my club…,

 

GO BILLS!!!

[Shortchaz]

3 hours ago, Andy1 said:

Sounds like you agree it is much more than 1% of the formula for playoff teams. One of these seasons, Lady Luck will shine on the Bills. With all the adversity the team dealt with, this was definitely not the year. 

Yeah, maybe. It’s something where a clear definition would have to be established and quantified blah blah blah. It’s certainly a factor. 

[cle23]

On 2/18/2023 at 11:08 AM, SCBills said:

KC didn’t “handle” the Bengals.  That was a good game, and a game that was very clearly highly affected by Chris Jones being a game wrecker.  
 

They don’t win that game without Chris Jones, and I’d be willing to bet a lot of Chiefs fans would admit that.  
 

Frank Clark and George Karlaftis aren’t terrorizing Joe Burrow.   Just like Ed Oliver and Greg Rousseau couldn’t.  
 

You also seem to have ignored the part in my post that addressed the Chiefs making their own luck and, at some point, our excuses fall flat. 
 

 

 

I don't understand the point "without Chris Jones. " He's probably their 2nd best player.  Obviously without him it would be tough.  Same with most teams. 

[DrBob806]

On 2/17/2023 at 6:43 PM, JohnNord said:

You are 100% correct Success.  To win a Super Bowl you not only need to be good - the bounces have to go your way.  If there’s anything that happened this year - it’s that the Bills did NOT get those bounces. 

The NFL tried to help us out though- moving a game into a dome that involved 2 outdoor teams, and potentially a game in Atlanta (a dome) with another two outdoor teams. The Bills didn't come through. 

[JohnNord]

2 minutes ago, DrBob806 said:

The NFL tried to help us out though- moving a game into a dome that involved 2 outdoor teams, and potentially a game in Atlanta (a dome) with another two outdoor teams. The Bills didn't come through. 

Ok…sure

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, cle23 said:

 

I don't understand the point "without Chris Jones. " He's probably their 2nd best player.  Obviously without him it would be tough.  Same with most teams. 

We lost Von Miller, our 3rd best player, after Allen and Diggs.  We went from a top 5 DL to, like, 26th or 28th.  
 

Chris Jones is their 3rd best player behind Mahomes and Kelce.   Take him off KC and they aren’t beating CIN … watching that game, that’s obvious. 
 

Nevermind that we had no Jones or Hyde in that game either.  Chiefs stayed healthy where it mattered.  
 

We had offensive issues too.. no doubt, but if the Chiefs had an injury situation like we did, especially to their main DL piece, it’s Bengals/Eagles in the Super Bowl. 
 

 

Edited February 19, 2023 by SCBills

[John from Riverside]

5 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I hear what the OP is getting at, we do need some luck, but more so than that, we need a competent O-Line and a better #2 WR, as well as some real innovation with our OC’s & DC’s play designs…,  now where’s that horse, and what did i do with my club…,

 

GO BILLS!!!

I think teams make their own luck
 

Lean into what you’re good at and have the ability to make changes on the fly when it’s obvious that it’s not working

 

Don’t be afraid to take a swing at the fences
 

One of the things that really bothered me about last year’s team was we were league leaders in sacks when Von Miller was healthy and you could clearly see that one Von Miller went out. We were going to have a major drop off in that area and pressures.

 

We should’ve either changed up our defense to blitz more or we should’ve been looking at trades or guys on other teams practice squads that had the ability to generate crack pressure

 

We also didn’t seem to recognize whenever certain players had a knack for what we were looking for Kingsley got playing time in literally one game last year and showed more pass rushing ability than any player we had on the team except for Von Miller. What did they do whenever rotational lineman got healthy enough to play they took Kingsley off the field, don’t do that recognize that someone does something well and keep them involved. I don’t know if we have Kingsley under contract right now but I really hope that we bring him back. 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

Luck isn't enough to overcome having McDermott as coach unfortunately

[ShakAttack]

I agree. You know what REALLY bothers me is there has been so much grandstanding of Mahomes and the Chiefs since they (barely) got their 2nd SB win,   Don’t get me wrong, as much as I can’t stand the guy, I respect the hell out of Mahomes, but the Chiefs had about as much “good luck” to get the Super Bowl this year as we had “bad luck”.

 

 I was watching the Week 6 matchup between KC and Bills last night and it was really, really hard to watch knowing the Bills had FINALLY figured it out. Von Miller had impacted Mahomes SO MUCH and he was delivering on everything we brought him here to do, with the team we wanted him to do it against! Bills were clearly the better team in that game and that is the team we expected to have when the playoffs started (even though we were still missing Hyde and White).  That will probably always go down as one of the toughest games for me to re-watch, because it was after that game that I finally allowed myself to believe we were the best and we could do it, and it was also after that game that everything went down hill for the Bills.

 

I think that’s what makes this season (still) so difficult for me. It’s what could have been. It’s people suddenly dismissing guys like Allen now and acting like Mahomes is untouchable. Is he the best? Yes. But he’s not untouchable. Bills are 2-1 in the last 3 games against KC, all in Arrowhead, and in that ONE loss, Allen did not even touch the ball after taking the lead with 13 seconds left which is enough to walk off with the win 99% of the time… unless your special teams somehow botches a squib kick call (speaking of good luck for KC..)

 

I do prefer the Bills going into next season as less of a favorite than this year though. I think it’s pretty clear NFL teams are fueled on perceived doubt, and the Bills were definitely one of those teams prior to 2022. Well, there will be plenty of doubt going into 2023, for what it’s worth. Now, can we just stay (relatively) healthy? That would qualify as some “good luck” for me!

[Beast]

Hard to argue. 

[Airseven]

Unfortunately, it seems the only way the Bills will ever overcome the Chiefs in the playoffs is, well, luck.

[Gregg]

7 hours ago, Airseven said:

Unfortunately, it seems the only way the Bills will ever overcome the Chiefs in the playoffs is, well, luck.

 

Build a better OL and the Chiefs become very beatable in the playoffs. Allen can't be the main focus of the running game. When Allen drops back to pass, he shouldn't have to run for his life most of the time. See Bengals playoff game as an example of that. The Bills did beat the Chiefs twice in Arrowhead in the regular season. They are beatable but the Bills need to fix some of their issues on offense if they want to beat them in the playoffs.