Rate all of Beane's draft picks

[Manther]

10 hours ago, SCBills said:

Rousseau is more a product of where he was drafted.  It’s rare for a late RD1 pass rusher to be elite in his first few years.  He actually had 1 more sack than Jaelen Phillips this past year, in 4 less games.  Oweh with 5 less sacks in 4 more games. 
 

Elam’s handling was an absolute joke.  He is our most talented CB, yet they played games with him all year. 
 

Beane, outside Oliver, has been good in RD1.  
 

Day 2 has been a disaster. 
 

Day 3, again, he’s good, but it’s relative .. good on Day 3 is why we have decent depth.   Striking out on Day 2 is why we lack game changers compared to CIN and KC. 
 

Even worse is that the Day 2 misses are in the trenches.  Something they constantly preach.  
 

Agreed Round 2 and 3 are hurting the Bills.  Oliver was a bad position, type of player and reach at that spot early in Round 1.  Even if you hit on Oliver you are using him in a rotation.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

24 minutes ago, Manther said:

Agreed Round 2 and 3 are hurting the Bills.  Oliver was a bad position, type of player and reach at that spot early in Round 1.  Even if you hit on Oliver you are using him in a rotation.

YES said this on the day he was drafted and ever since. You do not waste a top 10 asset on a DT. PERIOD.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Green Lightning said:

Dabol never schemed TE's or RBs as well. He should be a feature in this offense.

 

So it's everyone's fault except for Knox? I don't agree but I respect your viewpoint.

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

It’s also biased

 

Every post on this forum - including yours that im quoting - is biased. We all have our preconceived thoughts and opinions that bias our responses. To be biased is to be human. Its often those who think they are objective are the ones most bias.

 

You realize that there is a difference between sharing your opinion, and disparaging a person? right? You can disagree with posters without being rude. In general, you tend to crap on anyone's posts (oftentimes mine) if it is even remotely negative. I assume it grows tiresome for you to have to do that, so by all means please ignore my username so you don't have to be subjected to these topics anymore. It must weigh heavy on your shoulders to have to go around doling out judgement to posters for "utterly wasteful" threads. 

 

1 hour ago, Augie said:

guys are “gone” that doesn’t mean they were a bust

 

Not after only 4 years.

 

If you don't have a guy after only 4 years, then they are likely a bust.

 

1 hour ago, Augie said:

Some are gone because they were too good and we couldn’t afford to pay what other teams were offering them.

 

The only person this could even remotely apply to is Edmunds. 1 player.

 

1 hour ago, Augie said:

Other guys are gone and we received value for them in a trade. Names in red are not all wasted picks. 

 

We traded them because the Bills front office thought they were busts. Beane didn't trade what he thought would be an All-Pro guard for a 5th round pick  because it was a return in value.

To quote Beane "I screwed it up".

 

1 hour ago, Augie said:

 

If we are so terrible at drafting, why are we a top 5 team in the league. 

 

 

Him. Who Beane gets huge credit for drafting.

 

 

Edited February 18, 2023 by Einstein

[JGMcD2]

24 minutes ago, Einstein said:

We traded them because the Bills front office thought they were busts. Beane didn't trade what he thought would be an All-Pro guard for a 5th round pick  because it was a return in value.

To quote Beane "I screwed it up".

 

This is a disingenuous representation of what happened. 
 

Nobody said Wyatt Teller was a “bust” he was a 5th round pick that needed time to develop and they went with veteran offensive linemen instead. The fact that Teller wasn’t a “bust” was the reason he was traded… because he would’ve be claimed off of waivers for free by another club. 

[JGMcD2]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

 

The bar you're setting (All-Pro's) are not what many of us are talking about when we discuss the lackluster draft record. We would love to have All-Pro's but we all understand that there are very few of them. I am more-so talking about that "very good" level that's right below All-Pro. You're also missing a lot of players by only focusing on premium positions:

 

• Ed Oliver over Chris Lindstrom
• Ed Oliver over Jeffrey Simmons
• Ed Oliver over Dexter Lawrence
• Cody Ford over Elgton Jenkins
• Cody Ford over DK Metcalf
• Rousseou over Landon Dickerson
• Carlos Basham over Creed Humphrey

To name a few...

 

That doesn't take into consideration things such as:

• Not trading up to get your guy because you think he will fall and then KC trades up and gets him and then you have to panic and draft the very last guy on your 1st round board (Elam).
• Trading the pick that is now the best WR in the entire NFL.

Please stop calling it a lackluster draft record. It’s not true… you cannot keep repeating it hoping that it becomes a fact. For it to be a lackluster draft record, it needs to be compared to the rest of the league, it’s that simple. When you go and compare it to the rest of the league, the “lackluster draft record” statement will look silly. 
 

I expanded to the non-premium positions below that post. It didn’t shift anything significantly either way. You’re hyper focused on all the instances of “Very Good” players that went after we picked - it’s a vary small number of players in a draft that has 250+ selected. The probability of acquiring a good player with those selections is FAR lower than acquiring a good one. 
 

Give me a clear barometer of what a “very good” player is and I’ll spend the time going back to break it down since 2018. 

[Buffalo03]

On 2/17/2023 at 12:22 PM, Einstein said:

Players in red are gone or are presumed to be gone (example: Edmunds is testing free agency and is expected to get way more than the Bills can pay). Also didn't include 2022 picks since its too early to rate them.

 

How do you rate the rest of the draft picks? Here are my ratings:

 

2018

 

Allen - wanna have his babies

Edmunds- freaking terrific

Phillips- amazing

Teller - incredible 

Mccloud- I can't stop talking about how insanely magnificent this guy is

T Johnson - best ever

Proehl- Mind blowing

 

2019

 

Oliver - f*cking terrific

Ford- OMG fantastic 

Singletary- nobody better

Knox - HOF/get his gold jacket now

Joseph- words can't express it

J Johnson - unbelievably talented

D Johnson- name me 5 defensive ends that are better

Sweeney - just like Knox, fit him for a gold jacket, baby

 

2020

 

Epenesa - the next Bruce Smith

Moss- Barry Sanders, who?

Davis - can't stop raving about this guy

Fromm- don't care where he's Fromm, he's elite

Bass - I can't get enough 

Hodgins- Jerry Rice? I Think so

D Jackson - play him next to Tre all day, everyday and twice on Mother f*cking Sundays

 

2021

 

Rousseau - Mario Williams Clone

Basham - extend him now

Brown - never gives up a sack and will never your QBs elbow hurt. Lock him up

Doyle - I wanna write a love song about this guy

Stevenson- Randy Moss clone

Hamlin - terrific, I can't stop think about all the INTs he will make next season

Wildgoose- why did we let this guy walk?

Anderson- another HOF player

Conclusion???? Beane is the f*cking man. No GM is better

Edited February 18, 2023 by Buffalo03

[Einstein]

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Please stop calling it a lackluster draft record.

 

In my opinion it is.

 

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

 For it to be a lackluster draft record, it needs to be compared to the rest of the league, it’s that simple. When you go and compare it to the rest of the league, the “lackluster draft record” statement will look silly. 

 

This is likely where our differences arise. I am the head of a company and when I do performance evaluation reports, I do not compare my employees to their peers or even competition. I compare it to my standard, which is the elite companies of the world. 

 

The NFL is littered with terrible talent evaluators and bad teams. About 70% of the teams in the league ranges between 3 and 9 wins per season. Over 50% of their draft picks are busts. Comparing Beane to other lackluster evaluators doesn't encourage me.

 

8 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

 it’s a vary small number of players in a draft that has 250+ selected. 

 

That's not how statistical sampling works though. The Bills are not picking near all of the 250+ picks and not all picks are in the same round or grade.

 

The sample size would be more like 10. The 10 picks after the Bills pick - because those are the players likely in consideration for the pick the Bills are in. The Bills wouldnt be considered a 5th round graded player in the 1st. 

 

For example, in the 10-block segment for where Beane selected Ed Oliver, there was:

 

Brian Burns

Jonah Williams
Rashan Gary

Dexter Lawrence

Jeffrey Simmons

Christian Wilkins

Chris Lindstrom

Garrett Braderry

Dwayne Haskins.

 

In this 10-block sample, Beane had a pretty good chance of selecting a difference making player. The players in bold are all-pro's or pro bowlers, and Christian Wilkins SHOULD have been a pro-bowler. He was snubbed, ala Josh Allen last season.

 

"a very small number of players in a draft that has selected 250+" turns into "half of the players in the picks after Ed Oliver was taken turned out to be very good players". And that stings a bit more.

[Green Lightning]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

 

So it's everyone's fault except for Knox? I don't agree but I respect your viewpoint.

Never said that. He is under utilized. I think he would have far more production in a different scheme. So for me, I think he's trajectory could be far above average if targeted more. If he saw as many targets as Gabe did I think he'd have a hell of a lot higher catch rate than Davis did. To your point, in pure production, it is average. I just feel there's a lot more there.

[JGMcD2]

15 minutes ago, Einstein said:

This is likely where our differences arise. I am the head of a company and when I do performance evaluation reports, I do not compare my employees to their peers or even competition. I compare it to my standard, which is the elite companies of the world. 

 

The NFL is littered with terrible talent evaluators and bad teams. About 70% of the teams in the league ranges between 3 and 9 wins per season. Over 50% of their draft picks are busts. Comparing Beane to other lackluster evaluators doesn't encourage me.

I mean, I don’t know you well enough, but have you worked for the elite companies in the world? How do you know what that standard includes? 
 

You’re comparing Beane to the elite football evaluators of the world. It’s the NFL… there isn’t anywhere else to look. 

[Einstein]

10 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

I mean, I don’t know you well enough, but have you worked for the elite companies in the world? How do you know what that standard includes? 
 

You’re comparing Beane to the elite football evaluators of the world. It’s the NFL… there isn’t anywhere else to look. 

 

Yes. Consulted them.

 

The elite talent evaluators are clear. Look to the top.

Edited February 18, 2023 by Einstein

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

Yes. And several of them they hired me to consult.

 

The elite talent evaluators are clear. Look to the top.

Okay… so what is their standard?

 

The top of the NFL? By record? 
 

Kansas City

Philadelphia

Buffalo

San Francisco 

Edited February 18, 2023 by JGMcD2

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Yes. And several of them they hired me to consult.

 

The elite talent evaluators are clear. Look to the top.

 

For sure. But by what criteria. Because by most of them Beane scores out in the top 5 or so. And I say that as someone who has had my criticisms of him over the years. 

[Einstein]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

For sure. But by what criteria. Because by most of them Beane scores out in the top 5 or so. And I say that as someone who has had my criticisms of him over the years. 

 

7 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Okay… so what is their standard?

 

The top of the NFL? By record? 
 

Kansas City

Philadelphia

Buffalo

San Francisco 

 

Id be looking at the team who won a Super Bowl, fired their coach, re-tooled the entire roster, then went to another Super Bowl.
 

Howie Roseman. Elite.

 

Didnt he have a quote a few years ago  about the draft not being that hard too?

 

Im sure he has some misses too.

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

 

Id be looking at the team who won a Super Bowl, fired their coach, re-tooled the entire roster, then went to another Super Bowl.
 

Howie Roseman. Elite.

 

Didnt he have a quote a few years ago  about the draft not being that hard too?

 

Im sure he has some misses too.

 

I agree Howie Roseman is elite.  And I was defending him when Eagles fans wanted to run him out of town too. But he does have his whiffs. He drafted Jalen Reagor a pick before Justin Jefferson. He spent a first round pick on Andre Dillard who has never cracked the starting lineup at tackle and he drafred JJ Arcega-Whiteside (a consesnus day 3 player) over DK Metcalf. Oh and he gave that brutal contract to Carson Wentz - who always did suck. 

[JGMcD2]

9 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

 

Id be looking at the team who won a Super Bowl, fired their coach, re-tooled the entire roster, then went to another Super Bowl.
 

Howie Roseman. Elite.

 

Didnt he have a quote a few years ago  about the draft not being that hard too?

 

Im sure he has some misses too.

Wait a minute… you jumped on Beane for trading the pick that became Justin Jefferson for Stefon Diggs… but Roseman is elite despite passing on Justin Jefferson for Jalen Reagor? 
 

Cody Ford instead of DK Metcalf but JJ Arcega Whiteside over DK Metcalf is ok? 
 

Hopefully Howie is elite, with his entire defense hitting FA, no cap space and Jalen Hurts about to get $50M/year. Luckily I think he is… but his missed are just as bad.

Edited February 18, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Zerovoltz]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree Howie Roseman is elite.  And I was defending him when Eagles fans wanted to run him out of town too. But he does have his whiffs. He drafted Jalen Reagor a pick before Justin Jefferson. He spent a first round pick on Andre Dillard who has never cracked the starting lineup at tackle and he drafred JJ Arcega-Whiteside (a consesnus day 3 player) over DK Metcalf. Oh and he gave that brutal contract to Carson Wentz - who always did suck. 

Rosemans strategy is a triumph of numbers.  He aquires tons of picks and then just drafts and drafts and drafts....banking on the idea that of the players they evaluate, they are going to miss on some, so throwing more crap at the wall means more has a chance to stick.  It's why when they miss on a Reager or Dillard, they just keep on going because they've hit on enough of their staggering payload of choices everyyear, that they are fine.  AND...more important than all that....they hit on Hurtz in round 2 and have been able to build around him well.....better than most.

 

Roseman is a top 5 elite for sure.  

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Rosemans strategy is a triumph of numbers.  He aquires tons of picks and then just drafts and drafts and drafts....banking on the idea that of the players they evaluate, they are going to miss on some, so throwing more crap at the wall means more has a chance to stick.  It's why when they miss on a Reager or Dillard, they just keep on going because they've hit on enough of their staggering payload of choices everyyear, that they are fine.  AND...more important than all that....they hit on Hurtz in round 2 and have been able to build around him well.....better than most.

 

Roseman is a top 5 elite for sure.  

I trust your judgement too. 
 

Who are your top 5? What do you consider elite? 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

Rosemans strategy is a triumph of numbers.  He aquires tons of picks and then just drafts and drafts and drafts....banking on the idea that of the players they evaluate, they are going to miss on some, so throwing more crap at the wall means more has a chance to stick.  It's why when they miss on a Reager or Dillard, they just keep on going because they've hit on enough of their staggering payload of choices everyyear, that they are fine.  AND...more important than all that....they hit on Hurtz in round 2 and have been able to build around him well.....better than most.

 

Roseman is a top 5 elite for sure.  

 

Agree. And he also knew when to execute an "over the top" trade for AJ Brown. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree Howie Roseman is elite.  And I was defending him when Eagles fans wanted to run him out of town too. But he does have his whiffs. He drafted Jalen Reagor a pick before Justin Jefferson. He spent a first round pick on Andre Dillard who has never cracked the starting lineup at tackle and he drafred JJ Arcega-Whiteside (a consesnus day 3 player) over DK Metcalf. Oh and he gave that brutal contract to Carson Wentz - who always did suck. 

some how they have managed to get out of every bad investment and pick they ever made with out much harm. Meanwhile it feels like the Bills mistakes and bad investments are now going to cost them. 
 

did the eagles just get lucky riding the rookie QB contract to two super bowls? 
 

nearly every year now it seems at least one of the teams in the Super Bowl has a qb on a rookie contract. It is one of the best ways to build a Super Bowl contender.