Hodgins or Gabe? Who will have the better career? (Poll)

[LeGOATski]

16 minutes ago, MJS said:

Apparently 300 yards and 4 TD's is a breakout year...

 

I have nothing against Hodgins, but clearly he thrived because he went to a team with little to no talent. This is similar to Robert Foster who had a big year with the Bills because he was the only person to throw the ball to. Then he did nothing.

 

Not to mention Hodgins's lack of availability due to injury so far in his career.

I wish I could say the fascination with him is odd, but it's an all-too-common occurrence on this board.

[John from Riverside]

I like Hodgens, but is this really a question?

[Ya Digg?]

17 hours ago, LeGOATski said:

What's considered a "breakout year" these days? It seems the standard went way down...

Well it depends - does the player play for the Bills or another team?  If he plays for the Bills the guy apparently needs 1500 yards at least and 10-12 touchdowns.  If he plays for another team, it looks like around 300 yards and less than 5 touchdowns.  Simples math, duh

[Big Turk]

Hodgins won't be in the league in 3 years.

[RocCityRoller]

This is a legitimate question? This is peak off-season silliness IMO.

Tired of seeing Gabe Davis become a fan target for some.

 

Gabe Davis: 93 targets 48 catches/ 836 yards/ 7 TD <- this guy is being compared to Isaiah Hodgins????

In the preseason I guessed Davis would have @ 60 catches/ 800-900 yards and 6-8 TDs.

2 out of 3 ain't bad. Not sure what others were expecting.

 

Let's get some perspective about Gabe Davis' 2022 season.

 

Receiving Yards:

Davis was 33rd in the league in receiving yards among ALL players, with one less game than most....

If someone were to parse out the top 64 receiving threats by yardage to each team guess who the first #2 guy by yardage would be?

 

Only 6 of the top 40 players by yardage had fewer than 100 targets. None were in the top 25.

Guess who one of those was?:

 

#27 - Mike Williams 93 targets/ 895 yards/ 3 TD  <- considered a stud #2

#32 - D Peoples-Jones 96 targets/ 839 yards/ 3 TD <- honestly surprised, good season

#33 - Gabe Davis - 93 targets / 836 yards/ 7 TD

#38 - Cooper Kupp 98 targets/ 812 Yards/11 TD <- #1 WR, league MVP candidate in 2021

#39 - Jakobi Meyers 96 targets/ 804 Yards/ 6 TD <- better than I thought

#40 - George Pickens 84 targets/ 801 Yards/ 4 TD <- 1st round draft pick

 

The only player who had more yards on the same or fewer targets than Gabe Davis was Mike Williams.

I hear he is pretty good. Oh and Mike Williams only had 3 TD and a solid 61.9% first down rate. He also has a sub 60% career reception rate.

 

Receiving TDs:

Only 14 players had more TDs than Davis. Again Davis had one less game than most.

9 players had 7 receiving TDs, so Davis was among the top 23 of all players in receiving TDs.

Tee Higgins had 7 with one less game too - Davis produced the same # of TDs as Higgins in the same number of games.

 

I hear Tee Higgins is a pretty good #2.

Gabe Davis had a higher TD% per target and TD% per reception in 2022 than Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, DeVonte Smith and DJ Moore

 

A few players had more or equal TDs on fewer targets. Most were TE like Kittle/ Kmet, or RB like Mckinnon.

 

First Down by Reception Rate (how often is a catch a 1st down?)

Davis had a 72.9% first down rate per catch... 72.9%.

Gabe Davis was 5th in the league among the top 50 target leaders and receiving yardage leaders in first down percentage. 5th.

Only 7 of the top 50 players in those two categories had a first down % higher than 70%

 

J Waddle (80%!)

Amari Cooper (78.2%!)

Allan Lazzard (75%)

George Pickens (73.1%)

Gabe Davis (72.9%)

Scary Terry (72.7%)

Travis Kelce (70.9%)

 

The only surprise here is Lazzard, who was the only WR A-Rod trusted early on.

 

Drops:

The actual credited drops are 7 or 8 depending on the source. 3 were within 0-9 yards. 3 were intermediate. 2 were deep.

Watching the film I would say 5-6 of them were on Davis. Bad for certain, but look at the passes.

Example: one of the 0-9 drops would have been an amazing sideline catch. He bobbled it while trying to keep his feet in bounds. He did catch it on the rebound, but his feet were out of bounds. Because his hands were on the ball, but he did not secure it, it was registered a drop.

 

Catch Rate:

I get the catch rate was pretty bad (51.5%), but Davis has been consistently a @55% catch rate guy his whole career.

If 8 passes were drops, and 48 were catches, what were the other 37 passes (40% of Davis' targets)????

They were defended or bad passes. It seems to me JA chucks up a lot of passes under pressure to Davis because he is the largest target not named Dawson Knox on the team, and Davis presents a better option for a catch or big play. Maybe this is part of why JA 'chucks the ball up so often.' Davis is JA's best option if Diggs is covered and things get ugly.

 

Let's consider.

OBJ had a 53.7% catch rate in 2021 <- TSW fan favorite.... can't have 2022 stats if you don't play

Davante Adams had a 55.6% catch rate in 2022 <- must stink if he is within Gabe Davis territory with 180 freaking targets....

 

Rankings among peers - some perspective:

Gabe Davis is not a WR #1, but he is a fine WR#2. I do think the Bills should invest in a future #1 with Diggs turning 30 this season and Davis not a #1, but:

 

Davis ranked with Mike Williams and Cooper Kupp among yards gained per target.

Davis ranked with Tyreek Hill, Tee Higgins, Davonte Smith and DJ Moore among total TDs

     Davis also had a higher TD% per target and TD% per reception than any of them

Davis ranked among Travis Kelce and Terry McLaurin among 1st downs generated per reception.

 

But I guess he stinks.

 

What we saw was the loss of Cole Beasley as a security blanket underneath. Bease was a @70% catch guy underneath from the slot in Buffalo. Even then his first down % was only 53.7% (124 of 231) in Buffalo. Crowder/ Lil Dirty and Shakir crapped the bed in providing a reliable underneath option. It's a bit dishonest to put that on Gabe Davis, a boundary WR.

 

So TSW expects the Bills #2 WR to have the yards per target of Mike Williams or Cooper Kupp, the TD production of Hill, Higgins, Smith and Moore, TD% efficiency better than all of them, the 1st down efficiency of Kelce and McLaurin and to have the catch % of Beasley who plays out of the slot to be successful???

 

Good luck with that.

 

WR#3 in the slot was the problem. Not Gabe Davis. Can't imagine why JA chucked the ball up to him so often when the slot stunk, and teams were focused on taking Diggs away. Not to mention the OL being a wreck.

 

The fact Davis is is even being compared to Isaiah Hodgins is ridiculous. How many people here think Zay Jones had a better career so far, or is the better WR???

[BananaB]

I’m gonna go with the guy who can actually catch the ball. Hodgins biggest strength coming out of college was his hands. 

[Don Otreply]

On 2/16/2023 at 7:58 PM, BullBuchanan said:

Hodgins has probably already played his best ball. I don't even like Davis, but he destroys Hodgins in a landslide. There isn't a thing that Hodgins does that's superior.

This past seasons Catch percentage…, 

[Bangarang]

If you say Hodgins then you’re an idiot.

[BananaB]

32 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

If you say Hodgins then you’re an idiot.

Lol. Gabe has a 50% catch rate for his career, that ain’t gonna fly for too long. Physical tools don’t matter if you can’t catch the ball. 

[Bangarang]

9 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Lol. Gabe has a 50% catch rate for his career, that ain’t gonna fly for too long. Physical tools don’t matter if you can’t catch the ball. 

 

If you're trying to argue Hodgins will have a better career then please refer to my post that you quoted

[BullBuchanan]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

This past seasons Catch percentage…, 

And still Gabe doubled his output on 11 more receptions. I wouldn't be bragging about that.

[TheBeaneBandit]

Apparently there are 27 morons so far. It's truly unreal.

[BananaB]

14 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

And still Gabe doubled his output on 11 more receptions. I wouldn't be bragging about that.

Davis had close to double the targets and caught 11 more balls. Lol… ELEVEN…. He also started more games and never switched teams mid ***** season.  
 

Gabes a big play guy but he’s never gonna last long if he can’t catch the ball consistently. Bills thought he could take a step forward and he was a disappointment. 

Edited February 18, 2023 by BananaB

[Dopey]

On 2/16/2023 at 4:44 PM, KDIGGZ said:

It might have seemed crazy to consider this last season but Hodgins had a breakout year and Gabe is good but has fizzled in the #2 role. Who will have the better career when all is said and done? Did we keep the wrong player?

REC 37 Tied-115th in the league 

YDS 392 116th in the league 

TD 4 Tied-46th in the league 

AVG 10.6 84th in the league 

 

That’s a breakout year?!?! If you wanna bash the Bills or a player, you gotta do better than this. 😂😂😂

If that’s a breakout year, Gabe is an All Pro. 

[BananaB]

12 minutes ago, Dopey said:

REC 37 Tied-115th in the league 

YDS 392 116th in the league 

TD 4 Tied-46th in the league 

AVG 10.6 84th in the league 

 

That’s a breakout year?!?! If you wanna bash the Bills or a player, you gotta do better than this. 😂😂😂

If that’s a breakout year, Gabe is an All Pro. 

First year seeing significant time and he never got his chance until mid season. If you matched their snaps rather than season I’m sure it would be a pretty funny comparison. Gabe would probably have him in yards per catch, that’s about it. 
 

Bills made a mistake letting a guy who can catch the ball get scooped off their practice squad while Gabe and McKenzie were dropping balls all season. McD loves his experienced guys. 

Edited February 18, 2023 by BananaB

[Captain_Quint]

Davis' footwork seems to have regressed this year along the sidelines. There were a few times that he could have had a sideline catch but almost inexplicably didn't toe tap and just stepped out of bounds. If he regains that sideline trust with Josh next year, he'll continue his acent to being one of the best #2 or #3 in the game. 

 

 

 

Hodgins needs to prove himself still. Show me you can stay healthy and beat the other teams gameplan and then we can talk about he and Gabe. 

 

 

[Mr. WEO]

wow, the Hodgins legend just will not die here!  Weird.

[BananaB]

4 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

wow, the Hodgins legend just will not die here!  Weird.

Yeah well, every time Josh throws to Gabe it’s basically a 50/50 ball at this point. Doesn’t really matter the route either. That’s who Gabe is at this point. 

[Mr. WEO]

6 minutes ago, BananaB said:

Yeah well, every time Josh throws to Gabe it’s basically a 50/50 ball at this point. Doesn’t really matter the route either. That’s who Gabe is at this point. 

 

There's an original take.  No doubt Raiders fans and Carolina fans are positing the same threads about 50/50 dudes Adams and Moore, right? 

 

Anyway, 88% of his catches are TDs or 1st downs this season.  Also, #2 in the NFL in YPC. 

 

In 3 years, including playoffs, 2458 yards, 26 TDs.   Who needs that??  

 

 

[BananaB]

27 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

There's an original take.  No doubt Raiders fans and Carolina fans are positing the same threads about 50/50 dudes Adams and Moore, right? 

 

Anyway, 88% of his catches are TDs or 1st downs this season.  Also, #2 in the NFL in YPC. 

 

In 3 years, including playoffs, 2458 yards, 26 TDs.   Who needs that??  

 

 

Before this year Adams was catching over 65 percent of his passes. Let me know when Gabe gets to that level and I’ll stop ragging on him.  Adams is also dealing with double coverage so your argument is *****. 

Edited February 18, 2023 by BananaB