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Josh Allen massive favorite in odds to win 2023 NFL MVP


Big Turk

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7 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wait, you think OP’s weather is that much worse than KC or Cincy. What about Ne and GB where Brady and Rodgers played? 

 

It is, by far, the worst weather city in the NFL as ranked by the weather channel.  Green Bay was second...a distant 2nd.

1 minute ago, Process said:

@Big Turk I have no idea where you got that info from but it's definitely not accurate. Mahomes Allen and Burrow are all +700.

 

It's an article on Fan Duel itself.

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9 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Wait, you think OP’s weather is that much worse than KC or Cincy. What about Ne and GB where Brady and Rodgers played? 

 

 Obviously, any outdoor stadium especially in the east and Midwest can get bad weather but it seems like it's on a different level in OP.

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1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

I think Vegas probably expects us to go all in on offensive talent this offseason, which even though that shouldn't matter to a solo player award it will help Allen get the season long stats he needs to win it at the end.

 

getting some OL and WR help will push Allen tremendously up the MVP ranks.  

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2 hours ago, KDIGGZ said:

I'd put money on Mahomes, Burrow, Hurts. Josh has a shot too but I would say those guys have better odds personally. Vegas seems to love the Bills lately but it didn't pan out too well this past year 

Injuries to key players (Von, Hyde, Tre, Phillips) plus numerous injuries to the WR core, injury to Josh, mass shooting in Buffalo, 3 games on short rest due to snow and on field cardiac arrest ended what looked to be a mentally exhausted team against Cinncy. Not making excuses but to minimize these things is also not being rational. 

 

In 2023, the WR core and OL should be strengthened by FA and draft. Dorsey has an entire offseason to grow and adjust.

 

Bills will be in contention AGAIN to win the division and SB. Josh will AGAIN be in the short list of MVP candidates.

 

LETS GO BUFFALO!
 

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3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Allen is +170, Mahomes and Burrow +700 are closest.  Vegas obviously isn't buying what so many on these Bills Boards are trying to sell them.

 

Bills Boards: Allen is a liability! His turnovers are costing us games! He isn't good enough! Wah! Wah! Wah!

 

Vegas: NFL favorite for MVP next year in a landslide by almost 3.5 times the next player.

 

Step back from the ledge and have some perspective.

 

image.thumb.png.2c7259029e2f56fe6efce9145a26cf3c.png

 

 

Allen is a liability?    He isn't good enough?

 

Talk about some made-up BS..........that's a less-than 1% subset of Bills fandom that believes those things.

 

But I guess you wanted to make a sandwich about some people complaining about him leading the league in turnovers.

 

Allen needs some better personnel around him on offense...........it's glaringly obvious enough that I think Vegas knows it's going to be addressed.

 

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3 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Allen is +170, Mahomes and Burrow +700 are closest.  Vegas obviously isn't buying what so many on these Bills Boards are trying to sell them.

 

Bills Boards: Allen is a liability! His turnovers are costing us games! He isn't good enough! Wah! Wah! Wah!

 

Vegas: NFL favorite for MVP next year in a landslide by almost 3.5 times the next player.

 

Step back from the ledge and have some perspective.

 

image.thumb.png.2c7259029e2f56fe6efce9145a26cf3c.png

 

How many Vegas odds threads do we need before people realize how utterly meaningless they are?  I just paid my bookie hundreds of dollars form all the lost bets on Allen winning MVP this year, Bills winning AFCCG and Bills winning Super Bowl.  All 3 were heavy favorites when I made the bets.  

 

It means nothing.  It doesn't suddenly mask all our issues:

  • Poyer, Devin, and Edmunds are FA and some or all of them won't be back creating more holes to fill as neither of those 3's heir apparent is currently on the roster. 
  • Our two best and most expensive players on Defense are coming off ACL issues, and one is 34 and the other was not close to himself this year.
  • Our OL needs a complete rebuild.
  • We have no one outside of Diggs that Allen can rely on and need to add at least one more legit weapon to the WR group.
  • Our DC now has watched his #1 and #2 ranked defense get embarrassed in playoff losses and somehow seems to keep his job.
  • Our OC is inexperienced and showed he lacks in creativity, situational awareness, utilizing his players to the best of their skill sets, and how to scheme guys open.  Its a night and day difference when you watch other teams like Cincy, KC, and Philly and how they run their respective offenses.  
  • We presumably also need a RB as no one expects Devin back and Cook isn't an every down RB as he doesn't have the size or power to pick up tough yards or excel in bad weather. 
  • Meanwhile...all 3 of the teams in our division are already somewhat of a threat, all 3 have the cap space or draft ammo to close the gap.  Heck, there is some talk Jets could land Rodgers which instantly makes them a massive threat.  Plus Cincy has a ton of cap space, and they played us like they are already ahead of us, so they could widen the gap while we just try and maintain.  

I am not a doom and gloom guy...I am not saying we can't get this offseason right and get over the hump next year.  I am saying, odds mean nothing this time of year and they absolutely do not erase the challenges ahead of us.  This team has legit things in front of it that are not going to be easy to navigate for Beane.  This is easily his most crucial offseason, he has nothing in the war chest to make a big swing with, he is going to have nail his free agency decisions and get quality contributions from the rookie class.  

 

Beane can very well do that, I have a lot of confidence in Beane, but this is a tall task for even the best GM's to take on in one offseason, so it won't be easy.

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1 minute ago, JerseyBills said:

He is the best QB in the game. He'd dominate under a great play caller

 

Mahomes is the best QB in the game. The 2 Super Bowl championships, the playoff wins, the AFCW titles, and all of the regular season wins. He is a big part of all of that. I would say Mahomes is in the conversation for top 5 QB all-time at this point. You can't say that about Allen (yet).

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12 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Year one of Dorsey looked like a sloppier version of DaBoll year 4.

 

If Dorsey takes a step…

 

 

That's a bit revisionist regarding Daboll..........he authored some terrible games in 2021 including the 6 point stinker against the very worst team in the NFL and as a result the team was just 11-6.

 

Dorsey had less talent at WR and OL to work with.........yet actually produced much more consistent results.............until the last game.

 

But once again..........no first time OC has won a SB since Mike Holmgren with the Niners in the 80's........and that team was a defending SB champ with a 3 time SB winning QB at the helm.

 

It's obviously not easy to win big with a first time OC.........Dorsey needs to take a step for sure but Beane needs to raise the talent level on the offensive side to compete with KC and Cinci.

 

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No one here thinks Josh is a liability.

 

Josh is favored like that, likely, because he is perceived around the country as by far the best player on a team that doesn't have a lot of supporting cast.  I.E., we would be nothing without him.


That's a good calculus for determining who is the MVP.

 

Mahomes has worse odds b/c there's way more talent to share the glory in KC, including Kelce and coaching.

 

 

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18 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

That's a bit revisionist regarding Daboll..........he authored some terrible games in 2021 including the 6 point stinker against the very worst team in the NFL and as a result the team was just 11-6.

 

Dorsey had less talent at WR and OL to work with.........yet actually produced much more consistent results.............until the last game.

 

But once again..........no first time OC has won a SB since Mike Holmgren with the Niners in the 80's........and that team was a defending SB champ with a 3 time SB winning QB at the helm.

 

It's obviously not easy to win big with a first time OC.........Dorsey needs to take a step for sure but Beane needs to raise the talent level on the offensive side to compete with KC and Cinci.

 

I've long thought that they played the most vanilla scheme possible vs Jax because they were so sure that they were going to win against such a terrible (and terribly coached) team. It's as if they didn't want to give anything away to subsequent opponents. Anyway, every team has some bad games, but I will say that watching Daboll I always felt like there was a purpose -- as if he was setting up stuff for later on and subsequent games. I wish I knew more about what he did in that respect vs NE in the two no-punt games, and he clearly had the Chiefs more or less figured out by the playoffs last year. He was (and is) creative and obviously smart. I am not so sure about Dorsey. Yes, they produced a lot of points, and maybe simply letting Josh rip is a good plan. But when you get to the playoffs and face other good teams, not having a carefully thought out plan set out weeks in advance is going to cost you. That's how I felt watching them vs. Cincy. Even vs Miami they had a huge lead and almost squandered it away by doing really dumb things on offense. Some of that was Josh--insisting on throwing to a well-covered Beasley because you missed him badly on the play before probably wasn't schemed up by Dorsey. But Dorsey has to rein Allen in from doing that stuff, which he did a lot of this year. Again, it often works because he's Josh Freaking Allen, but it's not Super Bowl-level scheming to say the least. I think Daboll is at that level, and indeed it turns out KC stole that play in which Toney scored from the Bills, who used it against them last year in the playoffs. They hadn't seen it before then.

Edited by dave mcbride
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