Beane’s “trade” his real mistake

[4merper4mer]

13 minutes ago, BillsShredder83 said:

Von put his team over the top last year. At a position of need. Hes been fairly healthy throughout his career. Nobody can predict or prevent an ACL.

I think we win a chip this year with even just regular normal amount of injuries and minus the adversity that was out control

My post was not to say it was a bad move or to say “I told you so” about Miller in any way.  It was to say that the move for Miller came with a cost.  That cost has created holes that need to be filled.  
 

There are people all over this board saying Beane has drafted poorly which is simply not true.  Poorly would imply worse than at least 16 other teams.  Has anyone even attempted to make that case?  No.  They cherry pick how we could have had DK Metclaf or other stupid anecdotal stuff.  
 

The Miller move could have resulted in a Super Bowl championship this weekend.  It didn’t.  It resulted in a video with stuff burning, a bunch of roster holes, and an injury.  Now, if Beane doesn’t fill all of those holes it will just “prove” that he is bad at drafting to some here.  That’s dumb.

[SCBills]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Counter argument: The biggest difference between the defenses KC and the Bills put up against the Bengals was that KC got pressure on Burrow quickly. The impact that one KC player made was largely responsible for that. A healthy Von could’ve done the same for us. I’m not saying there weren’t other issues that day, but he’d have solved one. 

 

Agree, about 90%.

 

I'm starting to think pass rush from the interior is more important than from off the edge.

 

Age aside, would you rather have a Chris Jones or a Von Miller?

 

With these quick passing offenses, it's more about disruption in the lap of the QB and the quickest route to the QB is up the middle.  

 

It's another reason why the Ed Oliver pick was such a big miss.  Imagine Jeffrey Simmons next to Daquan Jones?  We could be fine with Epenesa & Basham types off the edge because the interior would be collapsed with regularity. 

 

As much as I loathe the obsessive Defensive investment.... I think Beane SERIOUSLY needs to look at getting small, undersized Oliver, with his big cap hit, off this roster and replaced with another Daquan Jones.... and tbh, if he trades Oliver, I'd be ok with a high pick DT investment. 

[Mr. WEO]

Von Miller has played  an abysmal 61% of snaps this year...

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

I don’t criticize the dice rolling, but the result was poor.  It cost us Poyer, Edmunds and more.  We received a burn down video as the season highlight,  

Out of the hundreds of players available AFTER our picks at DL, I’m sure you can cherry pick a few that have succeeded in the NFL thus far.  That’s not a realistic way to criticize though.

The only thing that got burned down were our expectations. 

[\GoBillsInDallas/]

34 minutes ago, transient said:

Rightly or wrongly, I think the Beane and McDermott value him much more than the members of TBD.

 

You said "member"

 

[Billz4ever]

6 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Agree, about 90%.

 

I'm starting to think pass rush from the interior is more important than from off the edge.

 

Age aside, would you rather have a Chris Jones or a Von Miller?

 

With these quick passing offenses, it's more about disruption in the lap of the QB and the quickest route to the QB is up the middle.  

 

It's another reason why the Ed Oliver pick was such a big miss.  Imagine Jeffrey Simmons next to Daquan Jones?  We could be fine with Epenesa & Basham types off the edge because the interior would be collapsed with regularity. 

 

As much as I loathe the obsessive Defensive investment.... I think Beane SERIOUSLY needs to look at getting small, undersized Oliver, with his big cap hit, off this roster and replaced with another Daquan Jones.... and tbh, if he trades Oliver, I'd be ok with a high pick DT investment. 

Ed in there against the run is a liability.  Plain and simple.  I much preferred a healthy Phillips or Settle in there against the run.  We need heft in there to stop the run.  It would be one thing if Ed could use speed to get off his blocks and make plays, but he doesn't.  He just gets pushed around.  

[4merper4mer]

35 minutes ago, finn said:

 

 

But I'm not happy with Beane's performance elsewhere. Zack Moss, Spencer Brown, Terrell Bernard, Roger Saffold, EJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham... He's had some hits, but regularly drafting/signing players of this caliber will not get you a championship. 

This is what I’m talking about.  Cherry picking things and calling them failures.  He’s had some hits?  You mean like 3 straight division titles?  But the standard is now every third round pick has to be an immediate superstar?  
 

You’re not going to get every pick perfect and the guys you list are mostly still young.  Miller was a calculated risk, but a risk nonetheless.  Beane might do it again given the same circumstances.  Heck, I might.  But there is no denying that it created more holes than a perceived “miss” on Bernard.

[BillsShredder83]

12 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

My post was not to say it was a bad move or to say “I told you so” about Miller in any way.  It was to say that the move for Miller came with a cost.  That cost has created holes that need to be filled.  
 

There are people all over this board saying Beane has drafted poorly which is simply not true.  Poorly would imply worse than at least 16 other teams.  Has anyone even attempted to make that case?  No.  They cherry pick how we could have had DK Metclaf or other stupid anecdotal stuff.  
 

The Miller move could have resulted in a Super Bowl championship this weekend.  It didn’t.  It resulted in a video with stuff burning, a bunch of roster holes, and an injury.  Now, if Beane doesn’t fill all of those holes it will just “prove” that he is bad at drafting to some here.  That’s dumb.

Ok i can get down with the sentiment. That said. Gimme the gm that pulls these type of moves, 100 of 100 times

 

And i never want the gm scared to pull the trigger on moves like this

[Nephilim17]

Sorry, OP, but what should Beane "learn" from the Miller deal? Don't sign older free agents because they have a greater chance of injury?

Miller is a 1st ballot hall of famer and an outlier and can't be compared to 95% or more of other players his age.

If he doesn't get hurt, maybe we're still playing now. Beane's made a lot of mistakes (mostly top end of the draft) but I don't see Miller as one.

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Counter argument: The biggest difference between the defenses KC and the Bills put up against the Bengals was that KC got pressure on Burrow quickly. The impact that one KC player made was largely responsible for that. A healthy Von could’ve done the same for us. I’m not saying there weren’t other issues that day, but he’d have solved one. 

 

I made this point yesterday. Similarly last year when we lost to KC and then Cincy beat them... the difference was Cincy got pressure on Mahomes!

[Buffalo Junction]

7 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Ed in there against the run is a liability.  Plain and simple.  I much preferred a healthy Phillips or Settle in there against the run.  We need heft in there to stop the run.  It would be one thing if Ed could use speed to get off his blocks and make plays, but he doesn't.  He just gets pushed around.  

Oliver is a conundrum. He’s very good at winning 1 on 1’s, which is excellent when Von and Jones are on the field with him. Rousseau is similar in winning 1 on 1’s, but he can still set the edge against RT&TE doubles and pulling guards. Groot also has more growth potential considering his lack of experience at DE and his age. 

[balln]

33 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Counter argument: The biggest difference between the defenses KC and the Bills put up against the Bengals was that KC got pressure on Burrow quickly. The impact that one KC player made was largely responsible for that. A healthy Von could’ve done the same for us. I’m not saying there weren’t other issues that day, but he’d have solved one. 

No. It’s the whole scheme. Chris jones blowing up their line - only really matters bc they play tight man to man up on the line. It makes qb hold a bit longer 

 

even if Von and Hyde we still lose. We’re 10 yards off and give them whatever they want 

33 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Counter argument: The biggest difference between the defenses KC and the Bills put up against the Bengals was that KC got pressure on Burrow quickly. The impact that one KC player made was largely responsible for that. A healthy Von could’ve done the same for us. I’m not saying there weren’t other issues that day, but he’d have solved one. 

No. It’s the whole scheme. Chris jones blowing up their line - only really matters bc they play tight man to man up on the line. It makes qb hold a bit longer 

 

even if Von and Hyde we still lose. We’re 10 yards off and give them whatever they want 

[GunnerBill]

15 minutes ago, Billz4ever said:

Ed in there against the run is a liability.  Plain and simple.  I much preferred a healthy Phillips or Settle in there against the run.  We need heft in there to stop the run.  It would be one thing if Ed could use speed to get off his blocks and make plays, but he doesn't.  He just gets pushed around.  

 

I mean two years ago this was true. This year, it definitely wasn't. Ed played a LOT better vs the run than either Phillips or Settle. It really isn't close. There was a BIG drop off this year when either Jones or Oliver were out of the game between the Bills starting DTs and their backups. Neither Settle or Phillips played up to their contract. That is just a stone cold fact. 

[balln]

33 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Counter argument: The biggest difference between the defenses KC and the Bills put up against the Bengals was that KC got pressure on Burrow quickly. The impact that one KC player made was largely responsible for that. A healthy Von could’ve done the same for us. I’m not saying there weren’t other issues that day, but he’d have solved one. 

No. It’s the whole scheme. Chris jones blowing up their line - only really matters bc they play tight man to man up on the line. It makes qb hold a bit longer 

 

even if Von and Hyde we still lose. We’re 10 yards off and give them whatever they want 

[Billz4ever]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I mean two years ago this was true. This year, it definitely wasn't. Ed played a LOT better vs the run than either Phillips or Settle. It really isn't close. There was a BIG drop off this year when either Jones or Oliver were out of the game between the Bills starting DTs and their backups. Neither Settle or Phillips played up to their contract. That is just a stone cold fact. 

Earlier in the season when Phillips was actually healthy and not playing with 1 arm, I'd take him anyday vs the run over Ed.  

Edited February 9, 2023 by Billz4ever

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Billz4ever said:

Earlier in the season when Phillips was actually healthy and not playing with 1 arm, I'd take him anyday vs the run over Ed.  

 

I don't know what you were watching then, but it wasn't football. 

[Brand J]

41 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Counter argument: The biggest difference between the defenses KC and the Bills put up against the Bengals was that KC got pressure on Burrow quickly. The impact that one KC player made was largely responsible for that. A healthy Von could’ve done the same for us. I’m not saying there weren’t other issues that day, but he’d have solved one. 

Von Miller doesn’t make a difference in that CIN game, not with the calls Frazier sent in. Burrow got the ball out somewhere around 2 seconds, to wide open receivers. It’s not like he was holding it, waiting for someone to come open. The game plan was flawed, as it is most of the time in the playoffs. Miller doesn’t get pressure because nothing the Bills did forced Joe to hold the football. It was pitch and catch in the snow.

[Nextmanup]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

There has been a lot of criticism of Beane on here, mostly centered around the draft.  I disagree with the claims that Beane is some sort of bad drafter, but there is more to assembling a team.  Beane says he iis trying to build a team that is a perennial contender but also one that brings it all home.  In 2022 he made a “trade”.

 

What he gave up:

 

2023 and beyond of captain and team leader Jordan Poyer

2023 and beyond of captain and still young Tremaine Edmunds

Viable help via FA along the Oline in 22 or 23 and beyond  I’d say in 22 for sure but I don’t think there was much left at the time of the trade.

Another reasonable if unspectacular weapon at TE or WR

 

What he got:

 

Big plays in games against a horrible Rams team and our perceived main rival KC

Arguably some help developing our young DEs for a few weeks

A really cool video about burning things

Lots of stuff on Instagram

An unfulfilled promise of a quick return from injury

Three more years of huge gobs of money…..probably for little to no production beyond a lot of social media content and laudable work in the community

 

If you are listing Beane’s mistakes, the Miller pickup was first on the list once you consider the end result.  It isn’t fair to be too critical knowing the results……he couldn’t have known back when he made the decision.  He rolled the dice for 2022.  Sometimes it has to be done……but he made his goal of a long term consistent contender a lot more difficult when he rolled the dice and got a big fat snake eyes with Von.  Everyone hits and misses with draft picks.  Everyone.  He took a calculated risk with Von and lost.  I’m not one for hindsight….to me it was a 50/50 decision and it could have easily worked out for 2022…….but it didn’t.  I still like Beane and hope he is here for a long time, but he lost on this gamble and it cost him a lot.  To an extent it is back to the drawing board.  I wonder if he’d do it again.  To me it is still a 50/50 roll of the dice.  I hope he learns but does not overcorrect.

 

Personally, I think Beane has drafted well if measured against reasonable expectations,  The holes he has to fill in 2023 are less the result of “bad drafting” than the poor results and opportunity cost of a Von Miller contract that turned into nothing on the field.

 

 

I personally would NEVER have thrown a ton of money at a "pass rusher" in the twilight of his career.

 

It's stupid GM-ing 101.

 

It doesn't translate enough to added wins.  

 

Having said that, I like Beane a lot and think he is smarter than most in his profession.

 

I'd be happy to see McDermott go tomorrow, but I want to keep Beane around for a long time.

 

He is not without his mistakes, however.

 

[mjt328]

1 hour ago, 4merper4mer said:

Personally, I think Beane has drafted well if measured against reasonable expectations,  The holes he has to fill in 2023 are less the result of “bad drafting” than the poor results and opportunity cost of a Von Miller contract that turned into nothing on the field.

 

Disagree.  
Roster problems always start with drafting.  And while Brandon Beane has not been a "bad drafter" overall (compared to the other GMs around the league), the quality has certainly gone down over the last few years.

 

2017 (although pre-Beane) landed us Tre White, Dion Dawkins and Matt Milano.  

2018 landed us Josh Allen, Tremaine Edmunds and Taron Johnson.  Not to mention Wyatt Teller, an All-Pro we later traded away.

First two drafts for this regime, and we have multiple All-Pro and Pro-Bowl caliber players.  Excellent foundation that set us up as a Super Bowl contender.

 

2019 got us Ed Oliver, Devin Singletary and Dawson Knox.  Overall very solid draft, netting us three starting caliber players.  But unlike the previous two, none of these guys are real difference makers.

 

2020 was good for getting us Stefon Diggs.  But that's pretty much it.  The best guys we actually drafted were Tyler Bass (a kicker), Gabe Davis, Dane Jackson and AJ Epenesa.  All role players at best, who are better in the NFL as backups.  All positions we still need to upgrade.  That is definitely a bust of a draft.

 

2021 got us Greg Rousseau... and some other guys who aren't making much impact.  Spencer Brown was a liability this year.  Damar Hamlin was OK.  Boogie Basham is a backup who does very little.  These guys deserve one more season, but this draft appears below average to date.

 

2022 has some potential to be solid.  But probably not an elite group.  Kaiir Elam looked good at times, but it's fair to question his fit in our defensive scheme.  James Cook brings some speed, and has value in a 1-2 punch.  Khalil Shakir flashed.  Christian Benford may have something, and is being talked about as a potential safety.

 

 

[Billz4ever]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't know what you were watching then, but it wasn't football. 

You've got a very low bar if you consider Ed Oliver good against the run.