Beane’s “trade” his real mistake

[4merper4mer]

There has been a lot of criticism of Beane on here, mostly centered around the draft.  I disagree with the claims that Beane is some sort of bad drafter, but there is more to assembling a team.  Beane says he iis trying to build a team that is a perennial contender but also one that brings it all home.  In 2022 he made a “trade”.

 

What he gave up:

 

2023 and beyond of captain and team leader Jordan Poyer

2023 and beyond of captain and still young Tremaine Edmunds

Viable help via FA along the Oline in 22 or 23 and beyond  I’d say in 22 for sure but I don’t think there was much left at the time of the trade.

Another reasonable if unspectacular weapon at TE or WR

 

What he got:

 

Big plays in games against a horrible Rams team and our perceived main rival KC

Arguably some help developing our young DEs for a few weeks

A really cool video about burning things

Lots of stuff on Instagram

An unfulfilled promise of a quick return from injury

Three more years of huge gobs of money…..probably for little to no production beyond a lot of social media content and laudable work in the community

 

If you are listing Beane’s mistakes, the Miller pickup was first on the list once you consider the end result.  It isn’t fair to be too critical knowing the results……he couldn’t have known back when he made the decision.  He rolled the dice for 2022.  Sometimes it has to be done……but he made his goal of a long term consistent contender a lot more difficult when he rolled the dice and got a big fat snake eyes with Von.  Everyone hits and misses with draft picks.  Everyone.  He took a calculated risk with Von and lost.  I’m not one for hindsight….to me it was a 50/50 decision and it could have easily worked out for 2022…….but it didn’t.  I still like Beane and hope he is here for a long time, but he lost on this gamble and it cost him a lot.  To an extent it is back to the drawing board.  I wonder if he’d do it again.  To me it is still a 50/50 roll of the dice.  I hope he learns but does not overcorrect.

 

Personally, I think Beane has drafted well if measured against reasonable expectations,  The holes he has to fill in 2023 are less the result of “bad drafting” than the poor results and opportunity cost of a Von Miller contract that turned into nothing on the field.

 

 

[ClemsonBills]

Yeah, we were all upset in March with him rolling the dice. It's a 3 year contract essentially, so not all doom and gloom. I also trust a healing Von more than the rest of our dline. 

[Billsflyer12]

Von signing is a product of poor drafting after he used 4 top 2 round picks on DL with almost nothing to show for it.  He also drafted a 3rd round special teams linebacker who doesn’t fit the defensive scheme, and all the while ignoring OL and WR in top 3 rounds!

 

The BEST one can say about his drafts are that they are maybe average.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

To some degree you're right. 

 

Von was 32 when he signed, and 33 this season. 

 

He'll be 34 this upcoming season. 

 

In the span of all possibilities, banking on an older player past his prime staying healthy was indeed a risk. 

 

 

 

Would it have been smarter to get in other WR action, and say given up a first and a second and a new contract for Davante Adams? 

 

Chiefs unlikely to trade Hill to the Bills. But AJ Brown was potentially an option. 

 

 

 

All of this to say, Beane's roster has stalled because the last A-talent player he's added to this offense was Diggs in 2020. The Bills have stopped adding elite skill talent since that point. John Brown got old, Beasley got old, Emmanuel Sanders should have never been signed. 

 

This year, the Bills have to find a way to get another elite-traits WR on the field. 

 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Straight Hucklebuck

[uticaclub]

He wouldn't have had to make the gamble with Miller if any of our DL draft picks or prior free-agent pickups were productive. Signing Miller was to cover up his prior mistakes.

Edited February 9, 2023 by uticaclub

[4merper4mer]

3 minutes ago, ClemsonBills said:

Yeah, we were all upset in March with him rolling the dice. It's a 3 year contract essentially, so not all doom and gloom. I also trust a healing Von more than the rest of our dline. 

I don’t criticize the dice rolling, but the result was poor.  It cost us Poyer, Edmunds and more.  We received a burn down video as the season highlight,  

4 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

Von signing is a product of poor drafting after he used 4 top 2 round picks on DL with almost nothing to show for it.  He also drafted a 3rd round special teams linebacker who doesn’t fit the defensive scheme, and all the while ignoring OL and WR in top 3 rounds!

 

The BEST one can say about his drafts are that they are maybe average.

Out of the hundreds of players available AFTER our picks at DL, I’m sure you can cherry pick a few that have succeeded in the NFL thus far.  That’s not a realistic way to criticize though.

[Warcodered]

25 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

and our perceived main rival KC

You mean the team going to the Super Bowl from the AFC? Got to love how this just get's a glancing mention like "let's quickly sweep this under the rug."

 

Not like this wasn't actually a really important game.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Warcodered

[Billsflyer12]

11 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

I don’t criticize the dice rolling, but the result was poor.  It cost us Poyer, Edmunds and more.  We received a burn down video as the season highlight,  

Out of the hundreds of players available AFTER our picks at DL, I’m sure you can cherry pick a few that have succeeded in the NFL thus far.  That’s not a realistic way to criticize though.

So then you tell me, how do you define successful drafting?

 

Im not really sure what your point is here.  You defending or criticizing Beane?

Edited February 9, 2023 by Billsflyer12

[4merper4mer]

1 minute ago, Warcodered said:

You mean the team going to the Super Bowl from the AFC? Got to love how this just get's a glancing mention like "let's quickly sweep this under the rug."

 

Not like this wasn't actually a really important game.

He made a really good play and helped us win a big game.  Was that worth the cost to you?  If so, congrats, you win.

2 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said:

So then you tell me, how do you define successful drafting?

Well that’s a difficult question and pretty complex.  What it doesn’t contain is an expectation to get hall of famers with every pick or be able to pick guys at 27 that were actually drafted at 4.  It also doesn’t include expectations that all players we pass over will become abject failures.

[Gugny]

[julian]

I don’t think Von realized the level of loyalty most Bills fans demand from their players. When he went on and in about his love for LA and how hard it was to sign in Buffalo, essentially saying it was the money, most fans were rubbed the wrong way.

 

 I knew right from the start he was destined to be a whipping boy unless he went off.

 

nobody to blame but himself, I’m hoping he bounces back from injury and helps this team win a title.

[BillsShredder83]

39 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

There has been a lot of criticism of Beane on here, mostly centered around the draft.  I disagree with the claims that Beane is some sort of bad drafter, but there is more to assembling a team.  Beane says he iis trying to build a team that is a perennial contender but also one that brings it all home.  In 2022 he made a “trade”.

 

What he gave up:

 

2023 and beyond of captain and team leader Jordan Poyer

2023 and beyond of captain and still young Tremaine Edmunds

Viable help via FA along the Oline in 22 or 23 and beyond  I’d say in 22 for sure but I don’t think there was much left at the time of the trade.

Another reasonable if unspectacular weapon at TE or WR

 

What he got:

 

Big plays in games against a horrible Rams team and our perceived main rival KC

Arguably some help developing our young DEs for a few weeks

A really cool video about burning things

Lots of stuff on Instagram

An unfulfilled promise of a quick return from injury

Three more years of huge gobs of money…..probably for little to no production beyond a lot of social media content and laudable work in the community

 

If you are listing Beane’s mistakes, the Miller pickup was first on the list once you consider the end result.  It isn’t fair to be too critical knowing the results……he couldn’t have known back when he made the decision.  He rolled the dice for 2022.  Sometimes it has to be done……but he made his goal of a long term consistent contender a lot more difficult when he rolled the dice and got a big fat snake eyes with Von.  Everyone hits and misses with draft picks.  Everyone.  He took a calculated risk with Von and lost.  I’m not one for hindsight….to me it was a 50/50 decision and it could have easily worked out for 2022…….but it didn’t.  I still like Beane and hope he is here for a long time, but he lost on this gamble and it cost him a lot.  To an extent it is back to the drawing board.  I wonder if he’d do it again.  To me it is still a 50/50 roll of the dice.  I hope he learns but does not overcorrect.

 

Personally, I think Beane has drafted well if measured against reasonable expectations,  The holes he has to fill in 2023 are less the result of “bad drafting” than the poor results and opportunity cost of a Von Miller contract that turned into nothing on the field.

 

 

Von put his team over the top last year. At a position of need. Hes been fairly healthy throughout his career. Nobody can predict or prevent an ACL.

I think we win a chip this year with even just regular normal amount of injuries and minus the adversity that was out control

[finn]

Not sure this is quite fair, since no one can predict injuries. If Beane had gone for AJ Brown, say, and Brown had been injured, we could criticize Beane for ignoring the team's deficient pass rush for a player who helped us win two games at WR before getting hurt. The team landed the elite DE the team needed, and the gamble was paying off until mid-season. I'm fine with the trade, given the need.

 

But I'm not happy with Beane's performance elsewhere. Zack Moss, Spencer Brown, Terrell Bernard, Roger Saffold, EJ Epenesa, Boogie Basham... He's had some hits, but regularly drafting/signing players of this caliber will not get you a championship. 

[transient]

I think the miscalculation was in overvaluing the existing skill players on offense and not sufficiently replacing the roles/production of peak Brown/Sanders and Beasley. Davis didn't perform when put in the position of a true #2, Crowder got hurt as his history suggested he would, McKittrick was the McKittrick we thought he was and not the McKittrick of his one "breakout game" against the Patriots***. Add to that, despite FA signings that were supposed to shore up the OL in addition to Kromer's masterful coaching, the line was downright offensive.

 

We saw what Von did earlier in the season. He was brought in purely to close out the 3-4 games that he didn't even get to play in. My hope for 2023 is his recovery from the ACL puts him on the field around the middle of November, and he rounds into form in December... it's as close as we'll get to bubble wrapping him for the playoffs... and that the Bills have much better injury luck next year.

 

Re re-signing Poyer; I love the player. He has been a warrior and given this team his all every game he has played in. But, as bittersweet as it is, I think his best days are behind him. Between him and Hyde, I think Hyde is the more cerebral player and the one that is harder to replace, which is why he was re-signed and Poyer wasnt'. If you swap Poyer's physicality for Hyde's leadership and communication this past season, I don't think our secondary gets roasted the way it did down the stretch.

 

I think they re-sign Edmunds. Rightly or wrongly, I think the Beane and McDermott value him much more than the members of TBD.

 

I agree about the ill spent 1st and 2nd round picks on the DL. They would have been better of spending them on OL and WR and bringing in FAs to fill out the DL given their apparent lack of scouting prowess at this position group... though I still hold out hope that Groot develops when he's not playing on a DL where the majority of the remaining players are either gutting it out through what could have been season ending injury or complete stiffs.

[Brand J]

Von is an older player, but has the legs of a 20 year old. He still looked spry and fresh, easily the fastest DE we’ve had on this team since an in his prime Jerry Hughes - only he was still bendier and stronger than a young Jerry. Hopefully it doesn’t take him the 2 years it usually takes to fully recover. We don’t have the time. And yes, Beane has been horrid on evaluating the trenches and WR.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Beane’s biggest mistake was not trading for Von Miller at the deadline in 2021. Especially knowing how little our 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round picks contributed as rookies.

 

 I know it’s eating him up. We win the Super Bowl with Von Miller in 2021.

[SCBills]

Nah, not about to criticize Beane for signing Von to (essentially) a 3 year deal.

 

Defensive Line is THE most important part of your Defense - and is critical to post-season success. 

 

Year 1 didn't work out.  It is what it is.

 

I still believe Von will give us above average DE play with elite flashes in big moments for the next 2 years.  To me, that's worth the monetary investment at that position. 

 

What we should do with the DL this off-season, however, is clean up the mistakes and prepare for the future.. 

 

-Ship Oliver and Basham out of here for whatever we can get. 

 

-Extend Daquan Jones. 

 

-Work out a way to get Jerry Hughes back. 

 

-Draft a space eating DT.

 

-Bring back Shaq and Phillips.

 

Gives us Von, Hughes, Rousseau, Epenesa and Shaq at EDGE, with Daquan, Draft Pick, Settle and Phillips inside.   Also gives us Von, Rousseau, Daquan and a Draft Pick locked up past next year. 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2023 by SCBills

[Logic]

Gonna be a looong six months around here...

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

Nah, not about to criticize Beane for signing Von to (essentially) a 3 year deal.

 

Defensive Line is THE most important part of your Defense - and is critical to post-season success. 

 

Year 1 didn't work out.  It is what it is.

 

I still believe Von will give us above average DE play with elite flashes in big moments for the next 2 years.  To me, that's worth the monetary investment at that position. 

 

What we should be on the DL, however, is clean up the mistakes and prepare for the future.. 

 

-Ship Oliver and Basham out of here for whatever we can get. 

 

-Extend Daquan Jones. 

 

-Work out a way to get Jerry Hughes back. 

 

-Draft a space eating DT.

 

-Bring back Shaq and Phillips.

 

Gives us Von, Hughes, Rousseau, Epenesa and Shaq at EDGE, with Daquan, Draft Pick, Settle and Phillips inside.   Also gives us Von, Rousseau, Daquan and a Draft Pick locked up past next year. 

 

 

 Von is a freak. If anyone can be a productive pass rusher in his late 30’s it’s Von Miller. 
 

Im just very frustrated with how it played out. We needed him so bad. Went out and got him in free agency. Then the injury. So frustrating.  I wish they found a way to keep Hughes and still bring on Miller.

[BarleyNY]

Counter argument: The biggest difference between the defenses KC and the Bills put up against the Bengals was that KC got pressure on Burrow quickly. The impact that one KC player made was largely responsible for that. A healthy Von could’ve done the same for us. I’m not saying there weren’t other issues that day, but he’d have solved one.