Unfounded rumor re: Edmunds Contract

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, colin said:

 

 

we can get trucked in the playoffs with less picks/cap than what we came in with the past four seasons.

 

super necessary edmunds floating in the middle of the field with the TE uncovered underneath beyond the sticks can happen with whoever out there.

 

 

 

Yup, this is my point.  With all the money we spent and draft picks invested...its netted us the #1 and #2 defense the last 2 years.  At first glance, looks like a huge payoff and worth it.  

 

Then you look at Fraziers last 3 playoff losses and realize this same regular season hero defense has been atrocious and given up 107 points and 1403 yards in those 3 losses.  Yet last year Bengals got through KC (same team that trounced us) with a defense ranked 16th (compared to our #1 ranked D) that was also tied with us in sacks at 42.  Then this year, KC's 17th ranked Defense got through the Bengals team that had its way with our Defense.  Both teams made the Super Bowl with their 16th and 17th ranked defense despite going through 2 power house offenses to get there.  

 

So since Frazier can't take those better ranked defenses and get the job done, spend the money on the offense and let Allen come in and outscore those teams like he basically did last year until Frazier and the D folded like a lawn chain in 13 seconds and OT.

[78thealltimegreat]

My fathers nephews former roommate says that Tremaine is going to be the highest paid linebacker in football…Bills fans after watching him vs the bengals 

[BuffaloRebound]

45 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

We can argue about a contract another time but did you not see a measurable improvement in his instinctual play this season? The question is if a coaching strategy is rush 4, then why work with him to improve pressure skills. This guy runs down backs and underneath receivers with physicality and can influence the passing game with a freakish wingspan. Our DC sucks and will be gone soon. Edmunds value will be shown with the next regime. Finally, with this defense, playing 2LBs, and an average secondary  in the nickel every down, how can we afford to lose him?

He was definitely better this year.  Didn’t  see QB’s manipulating him as much.    There’s no denying his size and speed, and at worst there will be no drop-off in his 25-28 year old seasons.  The problem is the Bills have backed themselves into a corner in regards to the defense and cap/financial resources.  Everybody has gotten extended or in Oliver’s case the can has been expensively kicked down the road another year.   Edmunds might be the wrong guy to put your foot down on, but they can’t keep handing out extensions to non-elite guys on that side of the ball.  I’d much rather have Edmunds at $15m per year than Oliver at $10m+ next year.  

[MasterStrategist]

55 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yup, this is my point.  With all the money we spent and draft picks invested...its netted us the #1 and #2 defense the last 2 years.  At first glance, looks like a huge payoff and worth it.  

 

Then you look at Fraziers last 3 playoff losses and realize this same regular season hero defense has been atrocious and given up 107 points and 1403 yards in those 3 losses.  Yet last year Bengals got through KC (same team that trounced us) with a defense ranked 16th (compared to our #1 ranked D) that was also tied with us in sacks at 42.  Then this year, KC's 17th ranked Defense got through the Bengals team that had its way with our Defense.  Both teams made the Super Bowl with their 16th and 17th ranked defense despite going through 2 power house offenses to get there.  

 

So since Frazier can't take those better ranked defenses and get the job done, spend the money on the offense and let Allen come in and outscore those teams like he basically did last year until Frazier and the D folded like a lawn chain in 13 seconds and OT.

Million $ question: are we lacking talent/speed on defense, or is it a combination of poor scheme/execution (maximizing adequate talent) that is holding us back in playoff games?

 

I tend to think it's both, and mainly poor resource allocation by Beane:

1. FAs: Trent Murphy, Star, Butler, Addison: just to name a few that underplayed their contracts

2. Draft: 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks - Ed, Groot, Boogie and AJ.  Did Beane get value for these picks, because it seems like Boogie and AJ are just "average/replaceable" and Ed/Groot are solid, yet inconsistent.

 

I've stated before that I'm not a huge fan of Frazier, but he hasn't had a Cincy, Chiefs, 49ers, or Eagles dline to work with here.  

 

When we start to see players leave, ie: Boogie, AJ, others in upcoming years, we will see if it's player evaluation or player development/scheme issues.  

 

My eyes tell me it's player evaluation, and that Beane/team NEED to start hitting on dline investments. Otherwise, we are counting on Josh to be near perfect.

[Eastport bills]

16 minutes ago, BuffaloRebound said:

He was definitely better this year.  Didn’t  see QB’s manipulating him as much.    There’s no denying his size and speed, and at worst there will be no drop-off in his 25-28 year old seasons.  The problem is the Bills have backed themselves into a corner in regards to the defense and cap/financial resources.  Everybody has gotten extended or in Oliver’s case the can has been expensively kicked down the road another year.   Edmunds might be the wrong guy to put your foot down on, but they can’t keep handing out extensions to non-elite guys on that side of the ball.  I’d much rather have Edmunds at $15m per year than Oliver at $10m+ next year.  

Honest assessment, I’m with you on everything. I would hold my nose and let Oliver go. He doesn’t impact the the game enough to warrant 10 minimum.

[BarleyNY]

1 minute ago, Eastport bills said:

Honest assessment, I’m with you on everything. I would hold my nose and let Oliver go. He doesn’t impact the the game enough to warrant 10 minimum.

Oliver is playing on his fully guaranteed fifth year option worth $10.75M this season. They could try to trade him, but I don’t see any teams wanting him with that contract. Maybe if one has an injury during the season but before the trade deadline. 

[Eastport bills]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Oliver is playing on his fully guaranteed fifth year option worth $10.75M this season. They could try to trade him, but I don’t see any teams wanting him with that contract. Maybe if one has an injury during the season but before the trade deadline. 

An undersized tackle that doesn’t get sacks or tackles. Let’s start fresh with a bigger, nastier, potentially more impactful guy out of the draft on a rookie contract. Let Jones, Settle and some cheap FA hold downs the fort.

[CookieG]

16 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Oliver is playing on his fully guaranteed fifth year option worth $10.75M this season. They could try to trade him, but I don’t see any teams wanting him with that contract. Maybe if one has an injury during the season but before the trade deadline. 

No, but you could look for a trade partner who is willing to sign him long term.  The trading partner could either eat the 10 mill cap hit or structure it somehow into a new deal. 

 

You have to find a team that believes he's been used wrong since 2019.

[Rebel101]

2 hours ago, Eastport bills said:

We can argue about a contract another time but did you not see a measurable improvement in his instinctual play this season? The question is if a coaching strategy is rush 4, then why work with him to improve pressure skills. This guy runs down backs and underneath receivers with physicality and can influence the passing game with a freakish wingspan. Our DC sucks and will be gone soon. Edmunds value will be shown with the next regime. Finally, with this defense, playing 2LBs, and an average secondary  in the nickel every down, how can we afford to lose him?

We would be friends 🤣

[Kiva]

All part of the script.  We will see if this is true. 

[Capco]

$120mil over 7 years (roughly 17 per season) with $50mil guaranteed means flexibility after year three (or four if the contract is more backloaded).  That leaves the option for a cut or a team-friendly restructure (additional guaranteed money in exchange for a lower per-year cap hit).  

I'd be happy with that.

But something like 120/6/60 feels like overpaying.  

[Wayne Arnold]

I don't see a way they let Edmunds get away. He's not even close to reaching his ceiling yet.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

An undersized tackle that doesn’t get sacks or tackles. Let’s start fresh with a bigger, nastier, potentially more impactful guy out of the draft on a rookie contract. Let Jones, Settle and some cheap FA hold downs the fort.

So what’s your plan? If the Bills cut him they still have to pay him. His salary would still count against the cap.

 

See below for an unlikely possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.

 

1 hour ago, CookieG said:

No, but you could look for a trade partner who is willing to sign him long term.  The trading partner could either eat the 10 mill cap hit or structure it somehow into a new deal. 

 

You have to find a team that believes he's been used wrong since 2019.

 

Other than trading him during the season to a desperate team, your scenario really is the only other possibility. Maybe a team like Chicago would flip late round picks and take him.

 

The real risk in that course of action is that Oliver would have to know that we are trying to trade him because his agent would have to work out that new contract. That could lead to some big problems if we can’t work out a trade. We could wind up having to eat some of his salary just to get him off the team. 
 

Personally I’d rather seem him here this season than give him away for next to nothing. He’s a good player even if he hasn’t lived up to his draft slot. 

[Eastport bills]

10 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

So what’s your plan? If the Bills cut him they still have to pay him. His salary would still count against the cap.

 

See below for an unlikely possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.

 

 

Other than trading him during the season to a desperate team, your scenario really is the only other possibility. Maybe a team like Chicago would flip late round picks and take him.

 

The real risk in that course of action is that Oliver would have to know that we are trying to trade him because his agent would have to work out that new contract. That could lead to some big problems if we can’t work out a trade. We could wind up having to eat some of his salary just to get him off the team. 
 

Personally I’d rather seem him here this season than give him away for next to nothing. He’s a good player even if he hasn’t lived up to his draft slot. 

He’s fine and keeping him another year is not terrible. The key is keeping Miller healthy and bringing in a productive edge rusher who can actually pressure the QB, unlike Epenesa or Lawson. Frazier and Sean insist upon rushing four which is great for protecting our young secondary but great QBs feast on 4 man rush teams.

[BuffaloRebound]

20 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

So what’s your plan? If the Bills cut him they still have to pay him. His salary would still count against the cap.

 

See below for an unlikely possibility, but a possibility nonetheless.

 

 

Other than trading him during the season to a desperate team, your scenario really is the only other possibility. Maybe a team like Chicago would flip late round picks and take him.

 

The real risk in that course of action is that Oliver would have to know that we are trying to trade him because his agent would have to work out that new contract. That could lead to some big problems if we can’t work out a trade. We could wind up having to eat some of his salary just to get him off the team. 
 

Personally I’d rather seem him here this season than give him away for next to nothing. He’s a good player even if he hasn’t lived up to his draft slot. 

Houston would make most sense.  Lots of cap room, he’s a hometown boy, and tough to attract free agents during a rebuild.  Might even be able to get a 3rd rounder for him

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, MasterStrategist said:

Million $ question: are we lacking talent/speed on defense, or is it a combination of poor scheme/execution (maximizing adequate talent) that is holding us back in playoff games?

 

I tend to think it's both, and mainly poor resource allocation by Beane:

1. FAs: Trent Murphy, Star, Butler, Addison: just to name a few that underplayed their contracts

2. Draft: 2 1st round picks, 2 2nd round picks - Ed, Groot, Boogie and AJ.  Did Beane get value for these picks, because it seems like Boogie and AJ are just "average/replaceable" and Ed/Groot are solid, yet inconsistent.

 

I've stated before that I'm not a huge fan of Frazier, but he hasn't had a Cincy, Chiefs, 49ers, or Eagles dline to work with here.  

 

When we start to see players leave, ie: Boogie, AJ, others in upcoming years, we will see if it's player evaluation or player development/scheme issues.  

 

My eyes tell me it's player evaluation, and that Beane/team NEED to start hitting on dline investments. Otherwise, we are counting on Josh to be near perfect.

 

Good questions...some of those FA guys you cited were brought in during the early years for short periods during rebuilding.  I won't hold too much of that against Beane.  He has done a great job over his tenure of building an annual super bowl contender after 20 years of being a doormat.  

 

But your question...is it talent or scheme.  Well lets look at a couple things.  First, AJE was a projected first round pick, and many thought mid first round.  Taking him in the 2nd was an absolute no brainer, run to the podium moment.  Any team in our spot needed a DE like we were was gonna take AJE there in the 2nd.  So can not fault Beane for that.  And a lot of people don't realize that AJE had 6.5 sacks this year as a rotational player, makes you wonder how many he could have had if we given more reps and turned loose more.  Jerry Hughes only managed to best that 2 times over his whole career as a full time starter in buffalo (7 and 9 sack seasons).  

 

Now let's talk more on Jerry Hughes...Last 3 years he had 4.5 sacks, 4.5 sacks, and 2 sacks last year.  Most people thought he was washed...but he goes to Houston and manages to match his career high of 9 sacks in his first year on a bad team.  11 sacks here over his last 3 years total...9 sacks there.  To me, this is one of many indicators that it's our system more than anything.  

 

Last year, Chiefs scored 42 points on us and we couldn't sniff Mahomes in the pocket...so much so Beane spent a Billion dollars on Von Miller to be here 25 years to rectify that.  Well, we had the #1 ranked defense last year, and as a team had 42 sacks.  Bengals however also had 42 sacks and were the 16th ranked defense.  Yet the Bengals the very next week were able to pressure Mahomes and get to him and shut that offense down in the 2nd half to beat them and move on to the Super Bowl.  So why was a team that was no better than us at getting to the QB, whose overall team defense was 16th compared to our #1 ranked D, able to have so much more success against KC?  

 

Same thing this year...Bengals move the ball on us with ease in severe weather after we fielded the #2 ranked defense.  The following week the 17th ranked Chiefs held the same Bengals team in check and moved on to the Super Bowl.

 

How much better can our defense be other being ranked #1 and #2 in the NFL?  I mean there is no excuse to keep getting smashed in the playoffs when fielding top end defenses.  At some point, you have to step back and look at what others are doing against common opponents and realize they have a better scheme, game plan, and play calls to get past those teams than we do.  

 

So for me...I think it is more scheme and Frazier than anything else. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Eastport bills said:

He’s fine and keeping him another year is not terrible. The key is keeping Miller healthy and bringing in a productive edge rusher who can actually pressure the QB, unlike Epenesa or Lawson. Frazier and Sean insist upon rushing four which is great for protecting our young secondary but great QBs feast on 4 man rush teams.

Agree that a healthy Miller is huge. That helped Oliver’s game. Well, he helped everyone’s game. Getting pressure consistently with four - or even three at times - is huge for defenses. That can be the best way to slow down great QBs. 

[Eastport bills]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Agree that a healthy Miller is huge. That helped Oliver’s game. Well, he helped everyone’s game. Getting pressure consistently with four - or even three at times - is huge for defenses. That can be the best way to slow down great QBs. 

Your point about Miller making everyone better is well taken. We could use another solid edge for our rotation.

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Houston would make most sense.  Lots of cap room, he’s a hometown boy, and tough to attract free agents during a rebuild.  Might even be able to get a 3rd rounder for him

You can’t be serious about a third round pick. No chance in hell. A flip of proximate day three picks is more like it. 

22 minutes ago, Eastport bills said:

Your point about Miller making everyone better is well taken. We could use another solid edge for our rotation.

Sadly, that is true. After all the picks and cap space they have spent on the DL, it’s still a need. 

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Yup, this is my point.  With all the money we spent and draft picks invested...its netted us the #1 and #2 defense the last 2 years.  At first glance, looks like a huge payoff and worth it.  

 

Then you look at Fraziers last 3 playoff losses and realize this same regular season hero defense has been atrocious and given up 107 points and 1403 yards in those 3 losses.  Yet last year Bengals got through KC (same team that trounced us) with a defense ranked 16th (compared to our #1 ranked D) that was also tied with us in sacks at 42.  Then this year, KC's 17th ranked Defense got through the Bengals team that had its way with our Defense.  Both teams made the Super Bowl with their 16th and 17th ranked defense despite going through 2 power house offenses to get there.  

 

So since Frazier can't take those better ranked defenses and get the job done, spend the money on the offense and let Allen come in and outscore those teams like he basically did last year until Frazier and the D folded like a lawn chain in 13 seconds and OT.

This narrative about our top 5 regular season defense is an illusion.  And it has been for these last 4 seasons.  It doesn't ever translate to the playoffs. I'm investing 75% of my cap and draft capital on offense.  I'm tired of waiting for this top5 defense to ever play top5 in high leverage playoff games.

     On a side note I'm signing Vander Esch for 2-3 M/ yr. He had the exact same 2022 AV as Edmunds. This is a no brainer.