Frazier: The hard FACTS on why many of us want a change.

[Governor]

3 hours ago, QB Bills said:

Has the whole world gone insane??? THIS IS A SEAN MCDERMOTT DEFENSE!!! What is wrong with you people?

 

I said this in another thread last week, but it appears that Leslie Frazier's best quality is being able to take bullets for his idiot head coach. Firing him is not going to change a thing. Not sure if you saw the game, but Clapmaster 2000 was the one calling timeouts with 13 seconds left last year and setting up the defense the way he saw fit. I really don't need to mention him throwing his players under the bus after the game as it doesn't have anything to do with the point, but I don't like him so I will.

 

I can't believe this is a serious opinion, let alone one echoed by so many fans on this board. If the Rams offense constantly underperformed in the playoffs, would anyone be calling for their OC's head instead of McVay? Can anyone even name their OC?

 

The Bills will need a miracle to win a Super Bowl with this guy as head coach. It could happen, but it's highly unlikely. They should have canned his cowardly ass after the first KC playoff loss after he showed his true colours. We've got an absolute dynamo at the most important position in the game and it's being wasted by a glorified DB coach who's obviously in way over his head.

Firing Frazier puts McD directly on the hot seat. Forcing him to fire his friend takes him out his all too comfortable situation. You come for McD next after they invent yet another way to blow a playoff game.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

Iis this a Motley Fool article ??

 

using 3700 words captain obvious asserts Leslie Consistently runs a good defense in regular season and consistently runs a bad defense in playoffs. 
 

😱
 

[GunnerBill]

7 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Respectfully disagree as you initially just dismissed those critical of Frazier.  Here is exactly what you said:  "Some people want heads on sticks. They are conditioned in the social media age to think accountability means people being fired. People can be held accountable without losing their jobs."

 

I mean that isn't engaging in a discussion and hearing each others opinions.  That was just kind of a rude way to dismiss anyones opinion who doesn't feel Frazier should automatically be brought back by saying they do not understand the word "accountability" because of social media.   

 

That is why I just paid you a compliment and applauded you for coming into the conversation and actually discussing your differing opinion on the topic rather than just dismissing anyone who sees it different.  I have no issue if you feel differently, but I do feel like that previous stance was a bit disrespectful to those who were taking the time to share their reasons why they feel like it may be time for a change. 

 

Any way, I stand by my kudos I sent in the last one, and appreciate seeing this side of Gunner back discussing things like you normally do.  

 

It wasn't a rude way of dismissing anyone who doesn't want Frazier back. You have to read it in the context of the post I quoted and was agreeing with. The whole point was that accountability does mean firings. 

 

It wasn't even a point about Frazier specifically. It was a point about society's warped idea about accountability. 

 

You just misunderstood it and took offence to something that wasn't there. That's on you.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

5 hours ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

Iis this a Motley Fool article ??

 

using 3700 words captain obvious asserts Leslie Consistently runs a good defense in regular season and consistently runs a bad defense in playoffs. 
 

😱
 

Why is it so hard for people to say Chiefs and Bengals? I think I know why. Because reality is if your expectations of our DC is stop Mahomes and Burrow then they will likely fail to reach expectations.

 

When we do finally beat these teams in the playoffs I’m expecting it to be the offense that wins it, not the defense. 

I think the fear is even if the offense wins it the defensive coaches can still mess it up, 13 seconds. So understandable. I can promise that if another failure like 13 seconds happens again there will be coaches losing jobs.

Edited February 9, 2023 by Buffalo_Stampede

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Well for starters I think they are using their young players more effectively and getting more production from them.  

And I think they have a substantially better offensive scheme and also their defensive scheme has been reliable despite all the defensive turnover.

 

They have just been more consistent in the trenches, that has been key.  

 

They have drafted better in the last few years and the trenches point is spot on. It is basically those 2 factors. Where the Bills are now feels a bit like where the Chiefs were coming off their Superbowl beatdown by Tampa two years ago (though obviously they got two round further on). A roster that needed some surgery with problems in the secondary, too much reliance on Mahomes to be a genius on offense and a disaster of an offensive line. What Brett Veach has done since has been pretty remarkable. The team that started the AFCCG a week and a half ago had just SEVEN remaining starters from that Superbowl. Of the remaining 15 starting spots I think the Chiefs have upgraded 12 of them, downgraded 1 (Hill to MVS) and stayed basically even at 2 (Mathieu to Reid and Ward to McDuffie). That is an incredible effort in two years. To have turned over 2/3s of your starters and got better in so many spots while getting significantly younger and more athletic.

 

The Bills are there IMO. It is a similar task that faces them.

Edited February 9, 2023 by GunnerBill

[PatsFanNH]

19 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I know Frazier is being talked about in different threads across the board.  But where I am taken back is the number of people making excuses for Frazier or absolving him of any responsibility or blame...or even mocking those who think a change is needed.

 

There is this one big thing that is commonly getting overlooked, and it's IMHO undeniable evidence that there is fundamental flaw in Frazier's defense vs the teams who have been in our way to get to the SB.

 

The past 3 years, our defense was dominated in the 3 playoff losses...but also, In all 3 seasons, those very same offenses that dominated our defense were held in check or shut down literally the following week by their next opponent who mostly had much lower ranked defenses than us, and ALL 3 lost their next game.  

 

The big difference was clearly game plan and play calling.  Bills in 2 of those years had by far the better defense during the season, yet fared terrible in comparison.

 

Bills defensive rankings last 3 years:

• 2020 - 15th (lost to Chiefs)
• 2021 - 1st (lost to Chiefs)
• 2022 - 2nd (lost to Bengals)
• COMBINED:  107 points, 1403 yards those offenses scored on us.

 

Defensive rankings of the teams that beat the team that beat us the very next week:

• 2020 - Bucs 8th (beat Chiefs)
• 2021 - Bengals 16th (beat Chiefs)
• 2022 - Cheifs 17th (beat Bengals)
• COMBINED:  53 points, 1034 yards those same offenses scored in their very next game (all losses) after beating us.

 

So our defense combined to give up twice as many points and almost 40% more yards than what those same offenses managed to do against their next opponent the very next week (in which they lost all 3 times).  And mostly against statistically inferior defenses to our own. 

 

All 3 seasons, our defense was dominated by the offenses we faced in our postseason loss:  Chiefs, Chiefs, and Bengals.  All 3 would go on to lose the very NEXT week with their offenses being shutdown or held in check: 

 

• 2020 - AFC Championship Game - Bills @ KC:  Our defense is helpless against the Chiefs who have their way offensively against us.  Hill and Kelce running wide open all over the field as if they were not even being covered.  Chiefs win the game with ease because our offense also showed poorly.
  • Super Bowl - Chiefs vs Bucs:  Bucs defense dominates the Chiefs offense and goes on to easily handle the Chiefs and win in dominant fashion.   This would be the only year the defense of the next weeks opponent was ranked higher than the Bills defense, but even so, the Bucs were still just the 8th ranked defense in the NFL that year.
• 2021 - AFC Divisional Round - Bills @ KC:  Our #1 ranked defense gives up 42 points, including 17 points in the final 2 min of the game and OT that included the 13 second debacle before completely laying down in OT.  Chiefs win the game.
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  Bengals 16th ranked defense completely shuts down Chiefs offense in the 2nd half and goes on to pull off an upset and beat the Chiefs at home holding them to just 24 points (compared to our 42 points) to advance to the SB.  
• 2022 - AFC Divisional Round - Cincy @ Bills:  Finally a home game, and despite bad weather (allegedly some sort of "competitive advantage" for the BIlls) and Cincy missing THREE starters on the OL (their weakest unit the past seasons even when healthy), our #2 ranked defense let the Cincy offense dominate the LOS and the Bengals got very little resistance from the Bills defense.  Bengals win.  
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  In a rematch of the previous season, Chiefs 17th ranked defense holds the Bengals offense in check and win a close game giving up only 20 points.

 

That is pretty astounding to look at and a strong indicator of just how poor our game-plan and play calling was in those games.  Especially the last 2 years when we had the #1 and #2 Defense entering the postseason respectively.  Even with the 15th ranked D in 2020, that is NO EXCUSE when you see defenses ranked 16th and 17th still perform well in 2021 and 2022 against similar potent offenses.  

 

And forget the stats, just watch all 6 of these games...the evidence and countless examples were right there on the screen, and it's clear as day why those other defenses had more success than our own.  

 

Personally, I think it's a big part of the reason Frazier isn't getting HC interest.  Having his high ranked defenses consistently fold in big games to teams who would get slowed by middle of the pack defenses the very next week is not a good look.  Especially for a guy who already has a bad stint as a HC on his resume in Minnesota.  

 

I just don't see a case to bring him back.  I get he is likely coming back based on comments from Beane...but should he is the question.  I just don't know how anyone can overlook how defenses that were mediocre all season fare so much better against the same offenses that Fraziers #1 and #2 ranked defenses perform so badly against.  

 

Not to mention the 13 seconds and OT lay-down last year where we gave up 17 points in the final 2 minutes of that game and OT.  I mean Kelce utterly schooled Frazier on national TV in those 13 seconds mocking his defense while mic'd up and said hit me in the seem if they are just gonna play it like that...which they did, and which Mahomes and Kelce did with ease like it was 7 on 7 out there.

 

THIS is why many of us want a change.  Not a hot take, not social media influence, not anything other than his continued postseason flops.  

 

 

2020 — the Bucs D was elite and KC at that point was missing both tackles (so your point doesn’t fit here)

 

2021- your D could have been better but the loss was on your HC who should have kicked it short and the game been over. HC GAFF LOSS

 

2022 — Your D was hurting big time, missing key secondary people and missing your best pass rusher.. Add into the fact your O had a awful game as well.. was a complete TEAM loss.

[PBF81]

Frasier doesn't seem to understand what Yards-AFTER-the-Catch are.  

 

That should be a terminal liability for a DC.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

20 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

McDermott is ultimately responsible for the defense, as well as the composition of the team itself. 

 

I am no fan of Frazier but if he is fired he will basically serve as a scapegoat for McDermott's failures.

Well putting another ex-Carolina coach on the staff is McDermott pushing Frazier one step closer to the edge. 

 

The OP data is pretty convincing. 

[colin]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is not true. He threw 15 interceptions in 2021 with a 2.3% INT rate; 14 interceptions in 2022 with a 2.5% INT rate. He was effectively the same player with regards to turnovers, but his TD rate actually went up from 5.6% to 6.2%.

 

In fact the offense as a whole was much more consistent under Dorsey. Our offensive rank in DVOA this year was 2nd, last year we were 10th. DVOA also measures variance which is essentially consistency week over week. Our offense was the 4th most consistent this year, last year we were the 2nd LEAST consistent.

 

Overall this year I would say the offensive highs weren't quite as high as last year, but the floor was MUCH higher. No total flunks in the regular season like the Jags game last year.

 

Where Dorsey's inexperience became a problem was in the playoffs. An experienced top tier DC in Lou Anarumo took him to school. Maybe Daboll would have done a better job there. Personally I wish we had a more experienced OC because our offense is too talented to waste on a new OC's training wheels. But it is what it is. Hopefully one year of experience is enough.

 

 

dude, i remember reading long threads here and stuff on twitter about dorsey (who does not to improve on some stuff, for sure) being a horrible drop off from daboll, and the numbers WERE NEARLY EXACTLY THE SAME BUT WITH LOWER VOL.  like, i think we squeezed the absolute best regular season record we could have in 2022-2023.  3 losses by a total of 8 points, vs teams that were hot at the time, two of which we avenged.  it's just that when it came to the tourney, we sucked bad because our coaches decided to be pollyanna babysitters instead of actual football coaches and didn't prep anyone nor did they do anything to fix their obvious schematic holes.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

2020 — the Bucs D was elite and KC at that point was missing both tackles (so your point doesn’t fit here)

 

Bucs D was ranked 8th.  That is not elite.  And I already stated in my OP that it was the one year where the next weeks opponent had a higher ranked D than ours.  But Bucs 8th ranked D only allowed 9 points to KC while our 15th ranked got trounced.  And that 15th ranked D is still a higher ranking the Bengals had last year (16th) and Chiefs had this year (17th) when they slowed down the same high potent offense that our #1 and #2 ranked defenses got smashed by.

 

2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

 

2021- your D could have been better but the loss was on your HC who should have kicked it short and the game been over. HC GAFF LOSS

 

Incorrect.  McD called a squib kick, not on the HC.  ST Coordinator forgot to tell the Kicker.  And it wouldn't have mattered if we did, this is a myth, they had all 3 timeouts.  We squibbed it this year and in 12 seconds before the half (1 second less), KC managed to still get a FG on us AGAIN.

 

2 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

 

2022 — Your D was hurting big time, missing key secondary people and missing your best pass rusher.. Add into the fact your O had a awful game as well.. was a complete TEAM loss.

 

Our D was ranked #2 in the NFL, and the people missing had been missing most the year or half the year.  The unit that managed to put up #2 ranked defense was entirely on the field except for Hamlin who was pretty bad in coverage anyway.  So again, not accurate accounting here.  

 

In fact, you are not really that accurate on any of the 3 points above.

[Nextmanup]

22 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I know Frazier is being talked about in different threads across the board.  But where I am taken back is the number of people making excuses for Frazier or absolving him of any responsibility or blame...or even mocking those who think a change is needed.

 

There is this one big thing that is commonly getting overlooked, and it's IMHO undeniable evidence that there is fundamental flaw in Frazier's defense vs the teams who have been in our way to get to the SB.

 

The past 3 years, our defense was dominated in the 3 playoff losses...but also, In all 3 seasons, those very same offenses that dominated our defense were held in check or shut down literally the following week by their next opponent who mostly had much lower ranked defenses than us, and ALL 3 lost their next game.  

 

The big difference was clearly game plan and play calling.  Bills in 2 of those years had by far the better defense during the season, yet fared terrible in comparison.

 

Bills defensive rankings last 3 years:

• 2020 - 15th (lost to Chiefs)
• 2021 - 1st (lost to Chiefs)
• 2022 - 2nd (lost to Bengals)
• COMBINED:  107 points, 1403 yards those offenses scored on us.

 

Defensive rankings of the teams that beat the team that beat us the very next week:

• 2020 - Bucs 8th (beat Chiefs)
• 2021 - Bengals 16th (beat Chiefs)
• 2022 - Cheifs 17th (beat Bengals)
• COMBINED:  53 points, 1034 yards those same offenses scored in their very next game (all losses) after beating us.

 

So our defense combined to give up twice as many points and almost 40% more yards than what those same offenses managed to do against their next opponent the very next week (in which they lost all 3 times).  And mostly against statistically inferior defenses to our own. 

 

All 3 seasons, our defense was dominated by the offenses we faced in our postseason loss:  Chiefs, Chiefs, and Bengals.  All 3 would go on to lose the very NEXT week with their offenses being shutdown or held in check: 

 

• 2020 - AFC Championship Game - Bills @ KC:  Our defense is helpless against the Chiefs who have their way offensively against us.  Hill and Kelce running wide open all over the field as if they were not even being covered.  Chiefs win the game with ease because our offense also showed poorly.
  • Super Bowl - Chiefs vs Bucs:  Bucs defense dominates the Chiefs offense and goes on to easily handle the Chiefs and win in dominant fashion.   This would be the only year the defense of the next weeks opponent was ranked higher than the Bills defense, but even so, the Bucs were still just the 8th ranked defense in the NFL that year.
• 2021 - AFC Divisional Round - Bills @ KC:  Our #1 ranked defense gives up 42 points, including 17 points in the final 2 min of the game and OT that included the 13 second debacle before completely laying down in OT.  Chiefs win the game.
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  Bengals 16th ranked defense completely shuts down Chiefs offense in the 2nd half and goes on to pull off an upset and beat the Chiefs at home holding them to just 24 points (compared to our 42 points) to advance to the SB.  
• 2022 - AFC Divisional Round - Cincy @ Bills:  Finally a home game, and despite bad weather (allegedly some sort of "competitive advantage" for the BIlls) and Cincy missing THREE starters on the OL (their weakest unit the past seasons even when healthy), our #2 ranked defense let the Cincy offense dominate the LOS and the Bengals got very little resistance from the Bills defense.  Bengals win.  
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  In a rematch of the previous season, Chiefs 17th ranked defense holds the Bengals offense in check and win a close game giving up only 20 points.

 

That is pretty astounding to look at and a strong indicator of just how poor our game-plan and play calling was in those games.  Especially the last 2 years when we had the #1 and #2 Defense entering the postseason respectively.  Even with the 15th ranked D in 2020, that is NO EXCUSE when you see defenses ranked 16th and 17th still perform well in 2021 and 2022 against similar potent offenses.  

 

And forget the stats, just watch all 6 of these games...the evidence and countless examples were right there on the screen, and it's clear as day why those other defenses had more success than our own.  

 

Personally, I think it's a big part of the reason Frazier isn't getting HC interest.  Having his high ranked defenses consistently fold in big games to teams who would get slowed by middle of the pack defenses the very next week is not a good look.  Especially for a guy who already has a bad stint as a HC on his resume in Minnesota.  

 

I just don't see a case to bring him back.  I get he is likely coming back based on comments from Beane...but should he is the question.  I just don't know how anyone can overlook how defenses that were mediocre all season fare so much better against the same offenses that Fraziers #1 and #2 ranked defenses perform so badly against.  

 

Not to mention the 13 seconds and OT lay-down last year where we gave up 17 points in the final 2 minutes of that game and OT.  I mean Kelce utterly schooled Frazier on national TV in those 13 seconds mocking his defense while mic'd up and said hit me in the seem if they are just gonna play it like that...which they did, and which Mahomes and Kelce did with ease like it was 7 on 7 out there.

 

THIS is why many of us want a change.  Not a hot take, not social media influence, not anything other than his continued postseason flops.  

 

 

I agree Frazier should NOT come back, but that he WILL come back.

 

But think about it: if he were to be replaced, but McDermott remained the HC, how much change in terms of defensive scheming would you expect to see?

What this team does defensively is first and foremost what McDermott wants to do; Frazier then implements those wishes.  Replacing Frazier without replacing McDermott as well would not be likely to solve our problems.

I believe there was an entire thread on that point a while ago.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, Nextmanup said:

I agree Frazier should NOT come back, but that he WILL come back.

 

But think about it: if he were to be replaced, but McDermott remained the HC, how much change in terms of defensive scheming would you expect to see?

What this team does defensively is first and foremost what McDermott wants to do; Frazier then implements those wishes.  Replacing Frazier without replacing McDermott as well would not be likely to solve our problems.

I believe there was an entire thread on that point a while ago.

 

 

 

I think he will be back too.  And I don't expect an overhaul of the whole defensive system...but Frazier is calling the defense, he is making poor play calls and in game decisions.  So a new DC will at least bring fresh ideas and new thoughts during in game moments and hopefully new ideas on how to generate pressure more consistently.  

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

3 hours ago, PBF81 said:

Frasier doesn't seem to understand what Yards-AFTER-the-Catch are.  

 

That should be a terminal liability for a DC.  

Maybe practicing against the Bills offense is to blame for the awareness gap?

[Brand J]

Time to move on to a DC who really knows how to scheme X’s and O’s. It’s clear we won’t have the Jimmies and Joes next year, so conduct an exhaustive search for the next great defensive mind. Even if it’s a different philosophy than McD. If McD wants to run his same defense (as Rex Ryan wanted to after Jim Schwartz was highly successful here), then McD needs to call the plays. Prove you’re a defensive guru who’s unit won’t be a total liability when it matters. Take ownership of the defense. 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, JayBaller10 said:

Time to move on to a DC who really knows how to scheme X’s and O’s. It’s clear we won’t have the Jimmies and Joes next year, so conduct an exhaustive search for the next great defensive mind. Even if it’s a different philosophy than McD. If McD wants to run his same defense (as Rex Ryan wanted to after Jim Schwartz was highly successful here), then McD needs to call the plays. Prove you’re a defensive guru who’s unit won’t be a total liability when it matters. Take ownership of the defense. 

 

Pegula will never say anything and Beane's not going to fire the guy that got him a GM job he didn't earn.  

 

I'm starting to think that there's something in McD's contract that let's him run the show at OBD.  

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

This is just turning into an EJ Manuel situation. I’m if you are a bills fan you just want the best for the team. How are there still people arguing to want to keep Fraizer 

[Gregg]

3 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Pegula will never say anything and Beane's not going to fire the guy that got him a GM job he didn't earn.  

 

I'm starting to think that there's something in McD's contract that let's him run the show at OBD.  

 

Even if this were true it doesn't mean Terry can't fire him. Beane and McDermott aren't going anywhere. Five playoff appearances in 6 years. Three straight division titles. The playoff failures are disappointing, but I can't see either one's seat getting warm just yet.

[Solomon Grundy]

They say the NFL is a copycat league yet I've never seen Frazier attempt to copy anything another team used to shutdown an offensively potent team. 

[balln]

They’re f0cked - they drafted these nice guy / coach on the field / culture cerebral types to play this highly

complex soft zone D. 

 

they don’t have the athletes to

run a man D / change it up when competition heats up and forces them to change 

 

so they just run the same sh7t D and get blown apart on that side of the ball in playoffs year in and year out 

[PBF81]

5 hours ago, Gregg said:

 

Even if this were true it doesn't mean Terry can't fire him. Beane and McDermott aren't going anywhere. Five playoff appearances in 6 years. Three straight division titles. The playoff failures are disappointing, but I can't see either one's seat getting warm just yet.

 

Obviously Terry can, but he won't.  

 

As to his seat being hot, it will be next season if one or more of several things happen/don't-happen.  

 

A. We don't win the division.  What's seemed like a lock for years all of a sudden doesn't seem so gimme. 

B.  We don't get at least to the AFC CG. 

C.  Our defense regresses significantly, which I can easily see occurring.  Von Miller's finished as an above-average player.  He'll be lucky at 34 to come back 100%, then he's still fighting age issues, but that's not even likely.  He'll diminish from there.  If Edmunds leaves, LOL, we don't even have two starting caliber LBs.  Poyer was huge on the defense, his absence will be felt.  

 

Otherwise, some fans can see that McD's limitations aren't going to improve.  Why should they, he doesn't even hold his coaching staff accountable.  

 

As Dirty Harry said, a man's got to know his limitations.  McD doesn't know his.  Some people catch on sooner than others.  Their performance in the playoffs on their watch, unless they play an offense bereft team like the Pats, has been horrendous.