Frazier: The hard FACTS on why many of us want a change.

[Fan in Chicago]

2 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

McDermott is the head coach. He also has more power than Beane due to the fact that he pretty much hired him. Fans can gather around him as they choose, and many do so because they are enthralled by the term "process" which he plagiarized. He has been here long enough to correct deficiencies on defense, as well as the lack of protection and weapons for a great quarterback. I dont understand your ferverent support for McDermott but I respect your opinion and obviously I'm entitled to mine.

 

As always, thanks for the dialogue.

 

 

 

I have been on Frazier's case for at least the last two years but you do bring up an interesting point regarding the root cause of the problems on D. My any measure, the FO has spent enormous draft capital on the D which is most likely due to the emphasis by McD. Inattention to the O side (OL and WR) has clearly resulted in "wasting" the efforts of Allen and Diggs. 

I am at a loss regarding the solution to this situation. If McD is the center of the FO's universe, we cannot expect to get over this hump as I have no confidence that the 2023 draft will bring in O talent. Beane cannot fire Frazier as it is McD's job. McD wont fire Frazier as he doesn't see the D failures the same way @Alphadawg7articulated. Beane can't force McD to make changes, per your take. And I am not in favor of a wholesale house cleaning as it can have unintented consequences. 

Unpopular opinion, but Whaley took a lot of flak for poor draft picks and inadequate team building. But save for a fanatastic QB, who is masking way too many problems than we care to admit, how is this team different than the ones Whaley built? Same end results of being cap constrained due to few bad contracts, splash signing of an expensive FA (Mario Williams <--> Von Miller), inattention to the OL, drafting too many DBs/RBs....

 

I really would hate it if Beane went into the draft with McD chirping in his ear that "we perform poorly in playoffs on D because we dont have sufficient talent". Enough of this cr** - spend 3 of the top 5 picks on O, including the first rounder. If we are going to continue with Frazier, at least give Allen the protection and the weapons to cover for Frazier/McD's ineffectiveness on D in the big games. 

[Success]

22 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, that play was on the players.

 

We know it because Levi Wallace has specifically said that the coaches called the right play and that it comes down to the communication between Poyer and Wallace. That Poyer was playing deep to stop the Hail Mary and Wallace assumed that he'd be playing shorter to stop the shorter pass allowing a field goal to tie and so their communication was awful.

 

This is a good example of confirmation bias. If you're focused on the coaches, you won't listen to the players specifically telling you what happened and whose fault it was.

 

Oh, and how many points did our offense score against the Bengals?

 

The teams was emotionally drained. We've heard the same thing from about a half a dozen of the Bills.

 

Didn't we rush 4 though?  That made no sense, at all.  KC only had 13 seconds.  Getting pressure on Mahomes wasn't the issue in that situation.

 

I thought that was actually the bigger error there.  It was a complete lack of situational awareness.  

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I think you know me by now, I have never been a "fire this guy" over reactor in my tenure on this board.  I have always been a believer in continuity. But there comes a time where things are not working and you have to look at if we have the right people in place.   

 

This year Jerry Hughes put up 9 sacks in a new defense on the worst team in the NFL in a year he was supposed to be washed.  He had 2 sacks with Frazier last year, and 4.5 the two years before.  Would you say that indicates that he at least benefited from a change in the defense and DC?  For years people complained Hughes got pressure, but not enough sacks.  He goes elsewhere and has a stellar 9 sack season despite being seen as washed around here after a 2 sack season last year.  

 

We won't be changing the defense even if we change coordinator. And the way we play our front is very much McDermott's standard. Where I think there is more grounds to argue that moving on from Frazier would result in a change of approach is on the backend. 

 

As for Hughes's production this year v last... it is a bit of an anomoly. He actually had fewer pressures this year than both 2020 and 2021. It was just a conversion anomoly. Similar to when we signed Addison and I said his final year in Carolina he had regressed and people piled on me saying "sack numbers were the same" and I said ignore that, pressures were well down, sacks being stable on fewer pressures was not sustainable.

 

That isn't to say Houston didn't give him more freedom to just pin his ears back - they did. But again, that is by design and is consistent with how McDermott has always wanted his ends to play. The Bills play wide 9 type formations among the fewest in the NFL and McDermott's Carolina teams were the same.

[Governor]

4 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

McDermott is ultimately responsible for the defense, as well as the composition of the team itself. 

 

I am no fan of Frazier but if he is fired he will basically serve as a scapegoat for McDermott's failures.

Right, but that needs to happen so McD knows it’s his head next time it happens. That’s called accountability.

[Alphadawg7]

21 minutes ago, ExiledInIllinois said:

Or... How about: We are so close right now, let's see if we can make it work before blowing up the whole darn thing.

 

Are we though?  And sorry, that is a bit dramatic...Replacing a DC is NOT "blowing the whole darn thing up".  

 

Josh and the offense played to NFL records last year...we lost...thanks to the D.  So even with Allen playing at an NFL record level, we still didn't advance.  

 

This year, Bengals embarrassed us on both sides of the ball at home while they were missing 3 OL starters.  

 

We are cash strapped...our 2 highest paid defenders, and arguably what is supposed to be our 2 best players on D are coming off ACL tear issues.  One of them, Von, is doing it at 34 years old and depends on his athleticism.  The other Tre, was never that fast, and hasn't yet proven he can get back to a high level of play yet.  

 

Now we have Poyer and Edmunds, two important players to Fraziers D the last 2 years who are free agents and one or both may not be back.  

 

Our OL is terrible, our lead RB is likely not back, and we have issues at WR to address.  Again...no cap space, only 6 draft picks that all end of round picks.  

 

Meanwhile:  

All 3 teams in our division are already tough and have rookie QB contracts giving them more money to spend to keep improving.  Bengals, already showing to be ahead of us, also have a rookie QB contract and a lot of cap space to keep improving a team already performing better than ours.  KC is still KC.

 

So how close are we today?  We made the AFCCG 3 years ago and haven't been back since.  Reality is we are firmly behind KC and Bengals right now, and our own divisional opponents are getting better each year.  And we don't have the fire power to make drastic moves.  

[Chaos]

4 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

.....So how close are we today?  We made the AFCCG 3 years ago and haven't been back since.  Reality is we are firmly behind KC and Bengals right now, and our own divisional opponents are getting better each year.  And we don't have the fire power to make drastic moves.  

This is more or less what Beane said in his post season press conference, and also seemed to indicate there was not much anyone could do about it. 

[JaCrispy]

4 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

McDermott is ultimately responsible for the defense, as well as the composition of the team itself. 

 

I am no fan of Frazier but if he is fired he will basically serve as a scapegoat for McDermott's failures.

We should have kept Daboll and dropped McD…

 

It’s no coincidence that Daniel Jones has his best season (least turnovers) under Daboll and Josh has regressed (more turnovers) post Daboll…More botched decision making…

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We won't be changing the defense even if we change coordinator. And the way we play our front is very much McDermott's standard. Where I think there is more grounds to argue that moving on from Frazier would result in a change of approach is on the backend. 

 

As for Hughes's production this year v last... it is a bit of an anomoly. He actually had fewer pressures this year than both 2020 and 2021. It was just a conversion anomoly. Similar to when we signed Addison and I said his final year in Carolina he had regressed and people piled on me saying "sack numbers were the same" and I said ignore that, pressures were well down, sacks being stable on fewer pressures was not sustainable.

 

That isn't to say Houston didn't give him more freedom to just pin his ears back - they did. But again, that is by design and is consistent with how McDermott has always wanted his ends to play. The Bills play wide 9 type formations among the fewest in the NFL and McDermott's Carolina teams were the same.

 

First, I want to acknowledge that this is the Gunner I enjoy and respect.  We don't have to agree, but at least you are providing real responses and your own thoughts regarding the topic at hand.  So kudos for switching gears, and appreciate the dialogue.  

 

I do agree with a lot of what you are saying here, that the defense wouldn't magically change completely because McD has a hand in this defense.  However, Frazier has just showed to not have an answer in either game plan, adjustments, or play calling so many times in these big moments.  And for me, that is where I would hope we would see an improvement with a new DC who have different thoughts or approaches to these moments.  

 

I am not advocating that the defense has to be completely changed to an entirely new scheme.  I just want fresh blood in there who can bring some new ideas in these moments and these games.  

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

First, I want to acknowledge that this is the Gunner I enjoy and respect.  We don't have to agree, but at least you are providing real responses and your own thoughts regarding the topic at hand.  So kudos for switching gears, and appreciate the dialogue.  

 

I do agree with a lot of what you are saying here, that the defense wouldn't magically change completely because McD has a hand in this defense.  However, Frazier has just showed to not have an answer in either game plan, adjustments, or play calling so many times in these big moments.  And for me, that is where I would hope we would see an improvement with a new DC who have different thoughts or approaches to these moments.  

 

I am not advocating that the defense has to be completely changed to an entirely new scheme.  I just want fresh blood in there who can bring some new ideas in these moments and these games.  

 

I didn't switch gears. You honestly did completely miss my point in the other thread and presumed I was saying something I wasn't. 

[TAinLack.]

4 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I could care less what our defensive ranking or DVOA is in the regular season. Josh playing Superman gets us in the playoffs.  Frazier and his weak predictable zone with zero pass rush gets us booted. Sure we can barely squeak by a weak 1st round opponent with a garbage qb ( Colts, NE, Mia.) because again Josh plays Superman with little offensive support.  But when divisionals roll around its soft zone, no pass rush and adios.  You'd think the McF apologists would've seen this movie before. 

Yup Ground Hog Day for Bills defense in the playoffs.  If Frazier stays, invest in the offense and just outscore our opponents!!!

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

First, I want to acknowledge that this is the Gunner I enjoy and respect.  We don't have to agree, but at least you are providing real responses and your own thoughts regarding the topic at hand.  So kudos for switching gears, and appreciate the dialogue.  

 

I do agree with a lot of what you are saying here, that the defense wouldn't magically change completely because McD has a hand in this defense.  However, Frazier has just showed to not have an answer in either game plan, adjustments, or play calling so many times in these big moments.  And for me, that is where I would hope we would see an improvement with a new DC who have different thoughts or approaches to these moments.  

 

I am not advocating that the defense has to be completely changed to an entirely new scheme.  I just want fresh blood in there who can bring some new ideas in these moments and these games.  

If you want to roll the dice and see true change, you fire McD, hire some other DC and run a completely different system. 
 

Broncos did this in 2014. John Fox went 12-4. Broncos bounced early from

the postseason. Canned Fox, hired Kubiak, went from a 4-3 to a 3-4 with Wade. Went from 16th to first in defense. 

[Saint Doug]

4 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I guess we know this must be true since "FACTS" is in all capital letters?

This is like the phrase “Fact Checker”. When you see that, anything but “facts” will be discussed. That said, the OP isn’t wrong here, facts or not. 

[Alphadawg7]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I didn't switch gears. You honestly did completely miss my point in the other thread and presumed I was saying something I wasn't. 

 

Respectfully disagree as you initially just dismissed those critical of Frazier.  Here is exactly what you said:  "Some people want heads on sticks. They are conditioned in the social media age to think accountability means people being fired. People can be held accountable without losing their jobs."

 

I mean that isn't engaging in a discussion and hearing each others opinions.  That was just kind of a rude way to dismiss anyones opinion who doesn't feel Frazier should automatically be brought back by saying they do not understand the word "accountability" because of social media.   

 

That is why I just paid you a compliment and applauded you for coming into the conversation and actually discussing your differing opinion on the topic rather than just dismissing anyone who sees it different.  I have no issue if you feel differently, but I do feel like that previous stance was a bit disrespectful to those who were taking the time to share their reasons why they feel like it may be time for a change. 

 

Any way, I stand by my kudos I sent in the last one, and appreciate seeing this side of Gunner back discussing things like you normally do.  

[ExiledInIllinois]

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Are we though?  And sorry, that is a bit dramatic...Replacing a DC is NOT "blowing the whole darn thing up".  

 

Josh and the offense played to NFL records last year...we lost...thanks to the D.  So even with Allen playing at an NFL record level, we still didn't advance.  

 

This year, Bengals embarrassed us on both sides of the ball at home while they were missing 3 OL starters.  

 

We are cash strapped...our 2 highest paid defenders, and arguably what is supposed to be our 2 best players on D are coming off ACL tear issues.  One of them, Von, is doing it at 34 years old and depends on his athleticism.  The other Tre, was never that fast, and hasn't yet proven he can get back to a high level of play yet.  

 

Now we have Poyer and Edmunds, two important players to Fraziers D the last 2 years who are free agents and one or both may not be back.  

 

Our OL is terrible, our lead RB is likely not back, and we have issues at WR to address.  Again...no cap space, only 6 draft picks that all end of round picks.  

 

Meanwhile:  

All 3 teams in our division are already tough and have rookie QB contracts giving them more money to spend to keep improving.  Bengals, already showing to be ahead of us, also have a rookie QB contract and a lot of cap space to keep improving a team already performing better than ours.  KC is still KC.

 

So how close are we today?  We made the AFCCG 3 years ago and haven't been back since.  Reality is we are firmly behind KC and Bengals right now, and our own divisional opponents are getting better each year.  And we don't have the fire power to make drastic moves.  

Let it go man... Give it one more season.  😆 

[HappyDays]

39 minutes ago, JaCrispy said:

Josh has regressed (more turnovers) post Daboll…More botched decision making…

 

This is not true. He threw 15 interceptions in 2021 with a 2.3% INT rate; 14 interceptions in 2022 with a 2.5% INT rate. He was effectively the same player with regards to turnovers, but his TD rate actually went up from 5.6% to 6.2%.

 

In fact the offense as a whole was much more consistent under Dorsey. Our offensive rank in DVOA this year was 2nd, last year we were 10th. DVOA also measures variance which is essentially consistency week over week. Our offense was the 4th most consistent this year, last year we were the 2nd LEAST consistent.

 

Overall this year I would say the offensive highs weren't quite as high as last year, but the floor was MUCH higher. No total flunks in the regular season like the Jags game last year.

 

Where Dorsey's inexperience became a problem was in the playoffs. An experienced top tier DC in Lou Anarumo took him to school. Maybe Daboll would have done a better job there. Personally I wish we had a more experienced OC because our offense is too talented to waste on a new OC's training wheels. But it is what it is. Hopefully one year of experience is enough.

 

Edited February 9, 2023 by HappyDays

[Repulsif]

too much truth from the OP for today

 

[Alphadawg7]

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If you want to roll the dice and see true change, you fire McD, hire some other DC and run a completely different system. 
 

Broncos did this in 2014. John Fox went 12-4. Broncos bounced early from

the postseason. Canned Fox, hired Kubiak, went from a 4-3 to a 3-4 with Wade. Went from 16th to first in defense. 

 

I am not advocating to fire McD, I think he gets this next season before his seat starts to get real hot.  But I am not confident Frazier can make the right calls or adjustments on the field in the postseason.  

[NastyNateSoldiers]

5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I know Frazier is being talked about in different threads across the board.  But where I am taken back is the number of people making excuses for Frazier or absolving him of any responsibility or blame...or even mocking those who think a change is needed.

 

There is this one big thing that is commonly getting overlooked, and it's IMHO undeniable evidence that there is fundamental flaw in Frazier's defense vs the teams who have been in our way to get to the SB.

 

The past 3 years, our defense was dominated in the 3 playoff losses...but also, In all 3 seasons, those very same offenses that dominated our defense were held in check or shut down literally the following week by their next opponent who mostly had much lower ranked defenses than us, and ALL 3 lost their next game.  

 

The big difference was clearly game plan and play calling.  Bills in 2 of those years had by far the better defense during the season, yet fared terrible in comparison.

 

Bills defensive rankings last 3 years:

• 2020 - 15th (lost to Chiefs)
• 2021 - 1st (lost to Chiefs)
• 2022 - 2nd (lost to Bengals)
• COMBINED:  107 points, 1403 yards those offenses scored on us.

 

Defensive rankings of the teams that beat the team that beat us the very next week:

• 2020 - Bucs 8th (beat Chiefs)
• 2021 - Bengals 16th (beat Chiefs)
• 2022 - Cheifs 17th (beat Bengals)
• COMBINED:  53 points, 1034 yards those same offenses scored in their very next game (all losses) after beating us.

 

So our defense combined to give up twice as many points and almost 40% more yards than what those same offenses managed to do against their next opponent the very next week (in which they lost all 3 times).  And mostly against statistically inferior defenses to our own. 

 

All 3 seasons, our defense was dominated by the offenses we faced in our postseason loss:  Chiefs, Chiefs, and Bengals.  All 3 would go on to lose the very NEXT week with their offenses being shutdown or held in check: 

 

• 2020 - AFC Championship Game - Bills @ KC:  Our defense is helpless against the Chiefs who have their way offensively against us.  Hill and Kelce running wide open all over the field as if they were not even being covered.  Chiefs win the game with ease because our offense also showed poorly.
  • Super Bowl - Chiefs vs Bucs:  Bucs defense dominates the Chiefs offense and goes on to easily handle the Chiefs and win in dominant fashion.   This would be the only year the defense of the next weeks opponent was ranked higher than the Bills defense, but even so, the Bucs were still just the 8th ranked defense in the NFL that year.
• 2021 - AFC Divisional Round - Bills @ KC:  Our #1 ranked defense gives up 42 points, including 17 points in the final 2 min of the game and OT that included the 13 second debacle before completely laying down in OT.  Chiefs win the game.
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  Bengals 16th ranked defense completely shuts down Chiefs offense in the 2nd half and goes on to pull off an upset and beat the Chiefs at home holding them to just 24 points (compared to our 42 points) to advance to the SB.  
• 2022 - AFC Divisional Round - Cincy @ Bills:  Finally a home game, and despite bad weather (allegedly some sort of "competitive advantage" for the BIlls) and Cincy missing THREE starters on the OL (their weakest unit the past seasons even when healthy), our #2 ranked defense let the Cincy offense dominate the LOS and the Bengals got very little resistance from the Bills defense.  Bengals win.  
  • AFC Championship Game - Cincy @ Chiefs:  In a rematch of the previous season, Chiefs 17th ranked defense holds the Bengals offense in check and win a close game giving up only 20 points.

 

That is pretty astounding to look at and a strong indicator of just how poor our game-plan and play calling was in those games.  Especially the last 2 years when we had the #1 and #2 Defense entering the postseason respectively.  Even with the 15th ranked D in 2020, that is NO EXCUSE when you see defenses ranked 16th and 17th still perform well in 2021 and 2022 against similar potent offenses.  

 

And forget the stats, just watch all 6 of these games...the evidence and countless examples were right there on the screen, and it's clear as day why those other defenses had more success than our own.  

 

Personally, I think it's a big part of the reason Frazier isn't getting HC interest.  Having his high ranked defenses consistently fold in big games to teams who would get slowed by middle of the pack defenses the very next week is not a good look.  Especially for a guy who already has a bad stint as a HC on his resume in Minnesota.  

 

I just don't see a case to bring him back.  I get he is likely coming back based on comments from Beane...but should he is the question.  I just don't know how anyone can overlook how defenses that were mediocre all season fare so much better against the same offenses that Fraziers #1 and #2 ranked defenses perform so badly against.  

 

Not to mention the 13 seconds and OT lay-down last year where we gave up 17 points in the final 2 minutes of that game and OT.  I mean Kelce utterly schooled Frazier on national TV in those 13 seconds mocking his defense while mic'd up and said hit me in the seem if they are just gonna play it like that...which they did, and which Mahomes and Kelce did with ease like it was 7 on 7 out there.

 

THIS is why many of us want a change.  Not a hot take, not social media influence, not anything other than his continued postseason flops.  

 

 

NTM before the Bengals game the Ravens slowed down the Bengals as well. 

[Alphadawg7]

2 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

NTM before the Bengals game the Ravens slowed down the Bengals as well. 

 

💯 and I was going to mention that in my OP, but post was already getting too long lol.  But yes, spot on

Edited February 9, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[Kaenon]

So, if I am reading this all correctly, what you're really saying is that our defense did a great job wearing out the opposing offenses for their next game.