Frazier: The hard FACTS on why many of us want a change.

[1st&ten]

There does seem to be problems with this defense playing too soft in pass coverage. I'm sure both Frazier & McD are both culpable. I don't think it's wise to panic & fire either at this time especially with all the coaching openings going on. However Bean should address this with them & bring in an assistant coach who can teach more press coverages to our DB"s

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, Success said:

Good analysis, OP - very detailed.  There is also the almighty "eye test," which I go by more often than not. And our D fails that, even in the regular season when we're leading in some categories.  But definitely in the playoffs, when it seems like our offense just has to keep scoring for us to have a chance.

 

The old adage "defense wins championships" is not a cliche.  It's a real thing.  There are obviously exceptions, but more often than not, the defense spearheads the big wins in the SB.

 

So what's the scoop?  If they were going to move on from Frazier, would they have done so already?  Or is there still a chance that they'll make a change there?  I would think it would have to be next week at the latest....

 

 

Agreed on all this.  

 

I have not heard a peep really since the end of the year pressers by Beane and McD.  And it certainly sounded like they had every intention on bringing Frazier back, and right now, that is the closest to an update that has been publicly stated on Frazier.  

 

He has not gotten any HC interest...another sign that people are not enamored with his playoff track record.  He went from a guy getting interest and interviews in past seasons to someone who is ice cold in the coaching searches.  Even Dorsey, who only has 1 year as an OC under his belt who had his own ups and downs this year got a little HC interest.  

 

I keep hoping they watch the film of the Bengals/Bills game and then go watch the film of the Bengals/Chiefs game and see what a massive difference a better game plan and better play calling made and come to their senses and try something new.  

 

So as of now, I still expect him back until there is some sign he won't be.  

[Gregg]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

After a special teams blunder, and Josh fumbling a snap, yea. 

 

Don't forget the long TD run and 4th and 18.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

After a special teams blunder, and Josh fumbling a snap, yea. 

 

Why has Frazier allowed 107 points and 1403 yards to KC, KC, and Bengals and then those teams go on to combine to score 53 points and 1034 yards (all losses) in their games the following week?  Twice against teams ranked 16th and 17th in defense while we fielded the #1 and #2 ranked defenses but got trounced?  

 

I have asked you this question multiple times now, but you have yet to even acknowledge it.  If we are fielding the superior ranked defense, how are we getting gutted for more than double the points and 40% more offensive yards against the very same offenses 1 week apart?

[Jim]

12 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Don't forget the long TD run and 4th and 18.

Yeah but that would implicate Loseley’s defense and GunnerBill doesn’t wanna do that.

[4th&long]

After what we have witnessed in the playoffs the last three years I’m surprised this is even a topic for debate? This is a soft defense. Teams don’t fear it. 
 

what is the definition of insanity? doing the same thing over and over again expecting a different result? 
 

some people get off on #1 and #2 ranked defense. that’s great for them it means nothing to me with out a Super Bowl title. 
 

a quarterback as hot as Josh was last year and the #1 ranked D? They should have easily won the Super Bowl. 
 

2000 ravens #1 D won it with Trent Dilfer at quarterback fcol!

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Why has Frazier allowed 107 points and 1403 yards to KC, KC, and Bengals and then those teams go on to combine to score 53 points and 1034 yards (all losses) in their games the following week?  Twice against teams ranked 16th and 17th in defense while we fielded the #1 and #2 ranked defenses but got trounced?  

 

I have asked you this question multiple times now, but you have yet to even acknowledge it.  If we are fielding the superior ranked defense, how are we getting gutted for more than double the points and 40% more offensive yards against the very same offenses 1 week apart?

 

I haven't acknowledged it because I am not really arguing against it. I think the defense has played poorly in all 3 playoff exits. That is indisputable.

 

If you want me to give you what I think the main reason for that is, then personally, I think it is because against those elite QBs - Mahomes and Burrow - you have to be able to generate pressure. And we haven't. Some of that comes down to scheme, I think that is fair, but some of it is just talent. When the Bengals shut down the Chiefs last year after they beat us - Henderickson and Hubbard combined for 3.5 sacks of Mahomes. When the Chiefs shut down the Bengals this year after they beat us - Jones and Clark combined for 3.5 sacks. We just haven't had that impact from our pass rushers. We haven't had those game changers to get pressure on those elite QBs. The Bills recognised that, they signed Von, sadly he got hurt. 

 

None of which means I absolve Frazier of any blame. He clearly is culpable for some of the failings, I think there is an element of predictability in the coverage schemes - some of which has been injury influenced - but is there nevertheless. But when I look at the bigger picture, the job he did this year with significant injuries and the wider context of those playoff defeats I am not at the "Frazier must carry the can stage." 

16 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

Don't forget the long TD run and 4th and 18.

 

I don't. But ultimately the collapse at the end of that game was not all defense. Indeed the defense made what should have been the game winning play on the 1 yard line. 

[HT02]

I couldn't agree more that Frazier needs to move on but my doubts that this will happen grow every day.  I like McDermott and have confidence he is a good head coach but if Frazier stays and they don't win the Super Bowl next year I will be ready for a change there too

[PBF81]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Hill and Kelce running wide open all over the field as if they were not even being covered.   

 

Personally, I think it's a big part of the reason Frazier isn't getting HC interest.  Having his high ranked defenses consistently fold in big games to teams who would get slowed by middle of the pack defenses the very next week is not a good look.  Especially for a guy who already has a bad stint as a HC on his resume in Minnesota.  

 

I just don't see a case to bring him back.  I get he is likely coming back based on comments from Beane...but should he is the question.  

 

Phenominal analysis, I really enjoyed reading that!!  

 

A few comments to the above parts ... 

 

Hill and Kelce weren't being covered, at least not effectively.  

 

It's a huge part of why Frasier's not getting any interest.  The only ones not seeing it are a subset of our own fans.  And this arguing back-n-forth amongst some as to whether it's Frasier's D or McD's D, but neither taking responsibility, McD assigning none (IMO that's a clue), and no one ultimately being held accountable isn't a good look and also isn't confidence inspiring.  

 

We can all argue until we're blue in the face, none of us has even a remote say in the matter.  But this is the kind of stuff that produces the Marvin Lewis's of the NFL, it's beyond obvious here that there are coaching issues.  McD was an OJT HC when he got here, Beane is an OJT GM, but they've topped out.  Sure, people can argue that they'll improve, but Beane hasn't produced any impact players on days 1 & 2 of his drafts besides Allen.  

 

What we appear to have is a Players Coach team mentality, where everything revolves around relationships, character, and good vibes, but when it comes to accountability for not performing, SMH.  I've also said it before but I'll say it again, the owners, coaches, and players all treat this like the business that it is.  But for some reason, we, the paying fans, aren't supposed to look at it that way.  

 

I guess we'll have to wait and see how long it takes for a critical mass of fans to bring the same pressure to bear on Pegula.  Speaking of which, we have no idea what's going to happen now either given the update on Kim's status.  There's some speculation in the media in spots that a sale could result.  That wouldn't surprise me, but if it does, obviously a whole lot changes.  

 

As for myself, I went thru those Super Bowl seasons, and it got old watching Levy get outcoached on the field for four straight.  If Parcells or Johnson had been our HC we'd have won two, possibly three of those.  We had the better team in three of the four.  The Skins had a better team than we did.  

 

Anyway, fantastic analysis!!  

[Alphadawg7]

28 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I haven't acknowledged it because I am not really arguing against it. I think the defense has played poorly in all 3 playoff exits. That is indisputable.

 

If you want me to give you what I think the main reason for that is, then personally, I think it is because against those elite QBs - Mahomes and Burrow - you have to be able to generate pressure. And we haven't. Some of that comes down to scheme, I think that is fair, but some of it is just talent. When the Bengals shut down the Chiefs last year after they beat us - Henderickson and Hubbard combined for 3.5 sacks of Mahomes. When the Chiefs shut down the Bengals this year after they beat us - Jones and Clark combined for 3.5 sacks. We just haven't had that impact from our pass rushers. We haven't had those game changers to get pressure on those elite QBs. The Bills recognised that, they signed Von, sadly he got hurt. 

 

None of which means I absolve Frazier of any blame. He clearly is culpable for some of the failings, I think there is an element of predictability in the coverage schemes - some of which has been injury influenced - but is there nevertheless. But when I look at the bigger picture, the job he did this year with significant injuries and the wider context of those playoff defeats I am not at the "Frazier must carry the can stage." 

 

But its more than that...like playing 10 yards off the LOS on a key 3rd and 4 against the Bengals WR's...Chiefs didn't do that.  Tim Graham even reported McD was screaming on the sidelines about that when he saw it pre-snap too, so he clearly didn't agree with Fraziers decision there either.

 

Or when Kelce schooled Frazier on the 13 seconds literally saying if they are gonna play it like that again hit me in the seem for an easy big game.  Not only did we run the same play that had just yielded a big gain to Hill on the first play of the 13 seconds, Kelce was spot on and caught the easiest big gain right up the seem.  No trickery, just ran right up the seem because Frazier called the same weak and soft defense even though KC had all 3 timeouts to start the drive and could throw it anywhere on the field. 

 

And make no mistake about it, there is a very good chance that 13 seconds debacle cost us what is easily our best shot in 20 years at a SB birth and title.  Not to mention the lay down the defense did on the ensuing OT drive easily giving up a TD with almost no resistance.  

 

You bring up sacks last year as to why Bengals fared better.  Bills and Bengals tied with 42 sacks on the season.  We were the number 1 ranked D and they were 16th.  So why did the Bengals have more success getting to Mahomes?  They were not any better at sacking the QB than we were all year, and their defense overall was much worse than ours.  

 

At some point, you have to look at scheme, play calling, and game plan to explain why these other teams are faring better against the same common opponent, especially when we are fielding the better defense.  And its not an isolated incident, it's a pattern over 3 years now.

 

PS:  Jerry Hughes - Sacks with Bills the last 3 years he was here:  11 total sacks.  First year with a bad team in Houston he puts up 9 sacks, almost as much as he put up in Fraziers defense over 3 years in a year he was supposed to be too old and washed up.  Just more evidence Frazier is the one failing at generating pressure with the personnel we have.  

Edited February 8, 2023 by Alphadawg7

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

1 hour ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

This is what I’ve been saying all along. This defense works really well during the regular season facing mid-level competition the majority of the time but they’re really good teams seem to completely destroy it.

 

  We've beaten KC in KC in the last 2 regular seasons, holding them to 20 points both times. KC went to the AFCCG last year & will be, at the very least, the Super Bowl runner up this year. This year KC's offense was 1st in ypg & ppg. Last year they were 3rd & 4th respectively.

 

 We also beat Miami(Pre concussion Tua) and Baltimore, all 3 of those teams were averaging over 30 ppg when we played them. We held Miami to 21, 7 of that was a result of a gift wrapped turnover inside our own 10. And we held Baltimore to 20, again turnovers gave them a 4 yard td drive and a 12 yard fg drive. All 3 were on the road, in a 4 week span and none were mid-level offensesat that time. This defense was really good before the injuries piled up, ranking #1 in the league with one of the hardest schedules at that point.

 

 If you want to talk about the KC losses in the playoffs the last 2 years, I'm with ya. They were horrible in those 2 games. But they lost so much high level talent on that defense to injuries this year, I don't see how anyone could've thought they were beating Cincy, including me. Hyde and Von not playing, Poyer was so injured he couldn't run anymore and Tre was no where near pre-ACL surgery Tre. We were on our 3rd and 4th string Free Safeties in the Cincy game trying to stop the best WR trio in the league. Add to that no Jones on the DL and Phillips playing with 1 arm.

 

 No defense in the NFL this year could lose that much talent and hold Cincy’s offense down. 0 chance of that happening.

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

But its more than that...like playing 10 yards off the LOS on a key 3rd and 4 against the Bengals WR's...Chiefs didn't do that.  Tim Graham even reported McD was screaming on the sidelines about that when he saw it pre-snap too, so he clearly didn't agree with Fraziers decision there either.

 

Or when Kelce schooled Frazier on the 13 seconds literally saying if they are gonna play it like that again hit me in the seem for an easy big game.  Not only did we run the same play that had just yielded a big gain to Hill on the first play of the 13 seconds, Kelce was spot on and caught the easiest big gain right up the seem.  No trickery, just ran right up the seem because Frazier called the same weak and soft defense even though KC had all 3 timeouts to start the drive and could throw it anywhere on the field. 

 

And make no mistake about it, there is a very good chance that 13 seconds debacle cost us what is easily our best shot in 20 years at a SB birth and title.  Not to mention the lay down the defense did on the ensuing OT drive easily giving up a TD with almost no resistance.  

 

You bring up sacks last year as to why Bengals fared better.  Bills and Bengals tied with 42 sacks on the season.  We were the number 1 ranked D and they were 16th.  So why did the Bengals have more success getting to Mahomes?  They were not any better at sacking the QB than we were all year, and their defense overall was much worse than ours.  

 

At some point, you have to look at scheme, play calling, and game plan to explain why these other teams are faring better against the same common opponent, especially when we are fielding the better defense.  And its not an isolated incident, it's a pattern over 3 years now.

 

I don't disagree there is some culpability. I haven't ever disputed that. I just don't think it is as simple as you do, change coordinator and it will improve. I think we'd still struggle getting to QBs in big moments (unless we can get Von back and healthy). And the secondary needs people healthy and back to form and Elam to get on the field more and take another step (whether that is on Leslie or Sean we don't know). 

[Alphadawg7]

Jerry Hughes managed 11 total sacks in his final 3 years in Buffalo (never more than 4.5).  In a year he was supposed to be too old and we moved on from him, Hughes goes out and puts up 9 sacks and was a game wrecker for Houston, the worst team in the NFL.  He had just 2 for Buffalo last year.  

 

More evidence that there are issues with Frazier's scheme, game-plan, or play calling when it comes to the lack of pressure we get.  

[ExiledInIllinois]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Ughhh huh?  Ok, let's do it your way...let's bring back Rob Ryan because "disrupting" things when we fired him was clearly a mistake.  While we are at it, let's fix our other mistake and try and lure Rex Ryan out of the booth because disrupting the team and firing him to hire McD was clearly a mistake too.  I mean who needs disruption when you can just stick with what isn't working right?  Because change never works.  

 

*sarcasm* 

Or... How about: We are so close right now, let's see if we can make it work before blowing up the whole darn thing.

[Thurman#1]

3 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I totally get McD has his influence on the defense, but the reality is Frazier is calling the defense in game.  Tim Graham even reported that McD was screaming before the snap when he saw our DB's playing 10 yards off the LOS on a critical 3rd and 4 against the elite Bengals WR's.  Frazier made that call.  And this was an issue, this play was even mentioned by Beane in his end of the year presser.  

 

And we know McD isn't going anywhere this next season, so make the change where you can make the change.  You don't even have to fire Frazier, his contract is up, just hire someone new.  While McD will still have his influence on the D, maybe a new DC won't make stupid calls like that against potent offenses.

 

Take the 13 seconds debacle for example...Kelce humiliated Frazier on National TV being mic'd up.  He literally told Pat if they are gonna play it like that again (which we did even though it didn't work at all on the first pass that Hill got a bunch of yards on) just to hit him in the seem for an easy catch.  Ball is snapped, Kelce screams at Pat and they make an easy throw to set up the FG attempt.  

 

These are calls being made in game by Frazier.  The Bengals and Chiefs DC didn't make those same blunders when they faced our opponent the very next week and slowed those offenses down and won the games.   

 

 

Again, that play was on the players.

 

We know it because Levi Wallace has specifically said that the coaches called the right play and that it comes down to the communication between Poyer and Wallace. That Poyer was playing deep to stop the Hail Mary and Wallace assumed that he'd be playing shorter to stop the shorter pass allowing a field goal to tie and so their communication was awful.

 

This is a good example of confirmation bias. If you're focused on the coaches, you won't listen to the players specifically telling you what happened and whose fault it was.

 

Oh, and how many points did our offense score against the Bengals?

 

The teams was emotionally drained. We've heard the same thing from about a half a dozen of the Bills.

[Einstein]

3 hours ago, Bill from NYC said:

McDermott is ultimately responsible for the defense, as well as the composition of the team itself. 

 

I am no fan of Frazier but if he is fired he will basically serve as a scapegoat for McDermott's failures.

Yeah, this is the problem.

[Behindenemylines]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Wait..so are you saying another DC couldn't do a good enough job on a defense the past 2 years that ranked first and second in the league for the Bills to make the playoffs?  As if Frazier was the only one capable of helping us make the playoffs?

From what I watched Frazier did his best to prevent us from making the playoffs. 

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't disagree there is some culpability. I haven't ever disputed that. I just don't think it is as simple as you do, change coordinator and it will improve. I think we'd still struggle getting to QBs in big moments (unless we can get Von back and healthy). And the secondary needs people healthy and back to form and Elam to get on the field more and take another step (whether that is on Leslie or Sean we don't know). 

 

I think you know me by now, I have never been a "fire this guy" over reactor in my tenure on this board.  I have always been a believer in continuity. But there comes a time where things are not working and you have to look at if we have the right people in place.   

 

This year Jerry Hughes put up 9 sacks in a new defense on the worst team in the NFL in a year he was supposed to be washed.  He had 2 sacks with Frazier last year, and 4.5 the two years before.  Would you say that indicates that he at least benefited from a change in the defense and DC?  For years people complained Hughes got pressure, but not enough sacks.  He goes elsewhere and has a stellar 9 sack season despite being seen as washed around here after a 2 sack season last year.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

It's McD's defense. It's McD's staff.  It's McD's team.  It's McD's draft.  Beane is McD's GM. 

Notice how all these coaches say the "it starts with me" when they talk about accountability. But notice how it really doesn't.  

Edited February 8, 2023 by Ethan in Cleveland

[Alphadawg7]

17 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Again, that play was on the players.

 

We know it because Levi Wallace has specifically said that the coaches called the right play and that it comes down to the communication between Poyer and Wallace. That Poyer was playing deep to stop the Hail Mary and Wallace assumed that he'd be playing shorter to stop the shorter pass allowing a field goal to tie and so their communication was awful.

 

This is a good example of confirmation bias. If you're focused on the coaches, you won't listen to the players specifically telling you what happened and whose fault it was.

 

Oh, and how many points did our offense score against the Bengals?

 

The teams was emotionally drained. We've heard the same thing from about a half a dozen of the Bills.

 

I am listening to players...I listened to the recorded conversation between Kelce and Mahomes on the field who saw how weak the defense being called on the field and ran in a straight line to beat it right up the middle because Frazier called the same play twice, that didn't work either time.  That carries more weight to me then listening to players cover for their own DC and not throw him under the bus.