Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III

[JGMcD2]

8 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

That last paragraph is 100% spot on. 

 

The Buffalo media treats Beane with kid gloves. His presser was a great example of that. If he were in Philly he would have been verbally assaulted off the stage. The one media guy

(Sullivan) who was confrontational was run out of the building. 

 

The fans are mostly satisfied with playoff births and great seasonal records. Heck, its way way better than the past. Maybe next year will be the year mentality sets in. 

 

Bills coaches feel very less pressure to win then most other teams. At least that's my opinion. Coach McD has instilled a high character team. Football isn't his everything like Belicheck or Brady. Right or wrong I think the team is soft in many ways. We clearly saw that vs Cinci and in many ways the Miami game too. 

 

I don't see this team being better next year. I don't see the coaching staff making  significant changes to improve. 

Yeah, those damn Bills! How dare they run Jerry Sullivan out of the building for his misogynistic comments about women. 
 

The Niagara Gazette should be ashamed too for following their lead and firing him! 
 

It’s critical journalism, maybe I just don’t understand 🤷🏻‍♂️

Edited February 9, 2023 by JGMcD2

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Yeah, those damn Bills! How dare they run Jerry Sullivan out of the building for his misogynistic comments about women. 
 

The Niagara Gazette should be ashamed too for following their lead and firing him! 
 

It’s critical journalism, maybe I just don’t understand 🤷🏻‍♂️

I don't support his comments. Obviously, he should have received some sort of discipline for his reckless comments. 

 

Imho, his comments shouldn't have resulted in his termination. An apology and a suspension would have been sufficient. 

 

I believe the Buffalo media is very soft. They rarely press players or coaches. Look at the 13 second disaster for an example. The entire coaching staff was treated with kid gloves and allowed to escape unscathed. No accountability! Only in Buffalo.

 

Say what you want about Jerry. He was tough and asked tough questions. I like that! I don't like a media that bows down to its players and coaches especially when they make horrible decisions. I miss Sully...

[JGMcD2]

1 hour ago, newcam2012 said:

I don't support his comments. Obviously, he should have received some sort of discipline for his reckless comments. 

 

Imho, his comments shouldn't have resulted in his termination. An apology and a suspension would have been sufficient. 

 

I believe the Buffalo media is very soft. They rarely press players or coaches. Look at the 13 second disaster for an example. The entire coaching staff was treated with kid gloves and allowed to escape unscathed. No accountability! Only in Buffalo.

 

Say what you want about Jerry. He was tough and asked tough questions. I like that! I don't like a media that bows down to its players and coaches especially when they make horrible decisions. I miss Sully...

Okay, but do you see where your comment about him being run out of town for being tough isn’t true? 

[newcam2012]

9 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Okay, but do you see where your comment about him being run out of town for being tough isn’t true? 

I'm not in totally agreement with that. I think its partly true. The other part is his reputation and general dislike by Bills fans, players, and management. I think it was all factored in. He wasn't given the benefit of the doubt that's for sure. 

[Nextmanup]

On 2/8/2023 at 9:14 AM, BearNorth said:

Kansas City has worse drafting positions than we do every year, but they rank 4th overall.  That pretty much falls on Beane and his college scouting dept.

 

We used a second on Cook when there were decent OL available, they found Pacheco under our noses [Rutgers] for a 7th.

It's like this pretty much in all sports.

 

The best organizations get the crappy draft slots and yet stay on top for years.

 

There is no doubt McDermott HIGHLY values the draftee being from a certain cut of cloth.  I wonder if that factors into his analysis too much; pure talent and performance should ALWAYS be heavily weighted first and foremost. 

 

I wonder if we discount that too much, and factor in too much "character" or whatever you want to call that which McDermott is looking for in players.

 

 

[JGMcD2]

5 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I'm not in totally agreement with that. I think its partly true. The other part is his reputation and general dislike by Bills fans, players, and management. I think it was all factored in. He wasn't given the benefit of the doubt that's for sure. 

He didn’t work for the Buffalo Bills. He worked for 3 separate employers… WIVB-TV, Niagara Gazette and Lockport Union Sun & Journal. 
 

He’s been the same Jerry Sullivan for years and kept a job… then makes sexist comments where 3 companies terminate him and you’re trying to argue the Bills influenced that? Come on. 

[Nextmanup]

On 2/8/2023 at 9:43 AM, HeHateMe said:

If the Browns drafted Allen, Beane would probably have been fired at this point.  His drafts haven't been good.  

This raises an interesting question that I was pondering the other day.

 

What if Allen had lived up to expectations, meaning, he was a total bust?  

 

Would the McBeane administration still be here?  If not, when would they have gone?  

 

 I don't think they'd still be here.

 

 

[Zerovoltz]

21 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

 

 

The Bills led by McD have failed to progress deep into the playoffs. Arguably, Coach McD blew that chance in 13 seconds vs KC. Hate to bring that up but I think it carries validity. This year his team was flat, unprepared, and laid an egg vs Cinci in a huge home field playoff game. Excuses or not much should fall on the coach. 

I agree with this in so much as the Bills missed their best shot at a title when 13 Seconds happened.  I'd only add that it shouldn't be the end of the Bills chances....but that loss and this years lost marks the end of low Allen cap hits and Beane is going to have to navigate a transition to having a QB with much higher cap hits.  

 

21 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

 

Let's look at KC and Philly for examples since both are in the Super Bowl. KC built up their Oline almost immediately and protected their elite QB. Bingo a Super Bowl win and likely more to follow.

I'm not sure what you meant here exactly...but to clarify.....When KC got Mahomes, they had Eric Fisher already on the roster, drafted in 2013....and he wasn't especially good, although by the end of his tenure in KC had become decent.  KC traded for RT Mitchell Schwartz in 2016.  At any rate, both were on the roster long before Mahomes.  KC notoriously neglected O line in drafts and FA for YEARS.  Only after 2020 when KC lost both Fisher and Schwartz to injury, and with what was considered among the worst G-C-G combos in the NFL...they FINALLY had no choice but to rebuild the entire line.  

 

Point here is don't give credit to KC for anything good that happened with the line prior to 2020....KC was in error how they handled that.

 

It's a minor miracle that they were able to completely rebuild the whole thing in one offseason following 2020 though.  Traded for Orlando Brown (who isn't that good, but he's servicable) Drafted Humphrey and Trey Smith in that draft.  Humphrey is an All-Pro and Smith is really good.  Signed Joe Thuney in FA.  Only RT is manned by a JAG now.  This remarkable rebuild has allowed the Veach/Reid to avoid what normally would be loads of criticism for neglecting the line.  

 

21 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

 

 

Yet, this organization is going to run it back. How can Bills fans be satisfied with that? Changes, schemes, philosophy, attitude, etc... have to be made. Teams like KC and Cinci have passed the Bills. Other teams are right there or better. It's time for the organization to get aggressive and assertive not passive. Running it back is passive. 

While it SHOULD probably be time to reset and get the cap straight going forward with big Allen cap hits, it does make some sense to "run it back" one more time trying to keep the current window open with Allen/Diggs/Von and maybe some re-signings, with some cap kicked down the road, knowing the reset / reconfiguartion has to come after 2023.  You're already on the hook for Diggs/Von anyhow....it's probably the best shot for the next few seasons.

 

21 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Now is not the time for fans to be complacent. Are you satisfied with nice regular season records? Making playoff appearances only to exit early? Perhaps many are based on the previous Bills history. 

 

As for myself, I want at least a Super Bowl appearance and than a Super Bowl win. Currently, the direction of this team makes that feat  distant and unlikely. For that reason, all the coache's seats including McD shouldn't be ice cold!

Again, the best shot was 13 seconds....maybe run it back one more season, but then it's going to be time to reinvent/reconfigure/reset......and that might also mean new coach and/or GM.  ...it might be interesting to note that of all 56 Super Bowls, the Coach and QB for every team, hadn't been together more than 5 years.  Any coach and QB who doesn't get to a SB in 5 years together, has NEVER gotten to one.  

[colin]

On 2/8/2023 at 9:43 AM, HeHateMe said:

If the Browns drafted Allen, Beane would probably have been fired at this point.  His drafts haven't been good.  

i honestly don't understand how people have disagreed with this.

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, Zerovoltz said:

I agree with this in so much as the Bills missed their best shot at a title when 13 Seconds happened.  I'd only add that it shouldn't be the end of the Bills chances....but that loss and this years lost marks the end of low Allen cap hits and Beane is going to have to navigate a transition to having a QB with much higher cap hits.  

 

I'm not sure what you meant here exactly...but to clarify.....When KC got Mahomes, they had Eric Fisher already on the roster, drafted in 2013....and he wasn't especially good, although by the end of his tenure in KC had become decent.  KC traded for RT Mitchell Schwartz in 2016.  At any rate, both were on the roster long before Mahomes.  KC notoriously neglected O line in drafts and FA for YEARS.  Only after 2020 when KC lost both Fisher and Schwartz to injury, and with what was considered among the worst G-C-G combos in the NFL...they FINALLY had no choice but to rebuild the entire line.  

 

Point here is don't give credit to KC for anything good that happened with the line prior to 2020....KC was in error how they handled that.

 

It's a minor miracle that they were able to completely rebuild the whole thing in one offseason following 2020 though.  Traded for Orlando Brown (who isn't that good, but he's servicable) Drafted Humphrey and Trey Smith in that draft.  Humphrey is an All-Pro and Smith is really good.  Signed Joe Thuney in FA.  Only RT is manned by a JAG now.  This remarkable rebuild has allowed the Veach/Reid to avoid what normally would be loads of criticism for neglecting the line.  

 

While it SHOULD probably be time to reset and get the cap straight going forward with big Allen cap hits, it does make some sense to "run it back" one more time trying to keep the current window open with Allen/Diggs/Von and maybe some re-signings, with some cap kicked down the road, knowing the reset / reconfiguartion has to come after 2023.  You're already on the hook for Diggs/Von anyhow....it's probably the best shot for the next few seasons.

 

Again, the best shot was 13 seconds....maybe run it back one more season, but then it's going to be time to reinvent/reconfigure/reset......and that might also mean new coach and/or GM.  ...it might be interesting to note that of all 56 Super Bowls, the Coach and QB for every team, hadn't been together more than 5 years.  Any coach and QB who doesn't get to a SB in 5 years together, has NEVER gotten to one.  

Fantastic information, rebuttal, and input. 👍

 

Blowing it up certainly doesn't seem prudent. I'm not advocating that at all. 

 

However, change certainly seems needed! More specifically, the Bills need to move on from Fraizer and  tweek their defense. Imho, a Fraizer led defense just won't get it done in the playoffs. How can someone think otherwise?

 

Does Dorsey deserve another opportunity? I didn't see anything in Dorsey that screamed elite or special. He was clearly learning on the job. I think that will continue next year too. To be frank, he seemed a bit over his head. In short, Dorsey's play calling and schemes limited the offense. The time to win is now and Dorsey inhibits that process. The Bills can do much better than Dorsey. Who knows if Frank Reich was available.

 

The Bills organization can most certainly make coaching moves. They are staying put which doesn't instill confidence going forward. Not sure how this is a winning strategy to hoist the Lombardi trophy? Refer to the last two years as a reference. 

 

Beane is a master of manipulating the cap and numbers. He is clearly handcuffed and limited in his options. In a nutshell, he admitted it in his press conference. Him pointing out Cinci and the Burrow salary situation was strange. A media member should have confronted him on why the Bills team wasn't successful when Allen was on his rookie contract. Sully certainly would have. 

 

The writing is on the wall. The Bills organization is out of optimal moves. The logical step is to run it back, hope for player development, limited injuries, meaningful draft picks, and timely contributing free agents. Who knows how successful that will play out? My feeling is it's a pretty unrealistic path to win it all. I am tempering my expectations next year. 

Edited February 9, 2023 by newcam2012

[newcam2012]

3 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

He didn’t work for the Buffalo Bills. He worked for 3 separate employers… WIVB-TV, Niagara Gazette and Lockport Union Sun & Journal. 
 

He’s been the same Jerry Sullivan for years and kept a job… then makes sexist comments where 3 companies terminate him and you’re trying to argue the Bills influenced that? Come on. 

I agree with this logic. I concede that you are correct. 

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

This raises an interesting question that I was pondering the other day.

 

What if Allen had lived up to expectations, meaning, he was a total bust?  

 

Would the McBeane administration still be here?  If not, when would they have gone?  

 

 I don't think they'd still be here.

 

 

 

 

Broader analysis aside.......if they didn't nail the Josh Allen pick I think McDermott's 0-6 start against Belichick becomes 0-10 by 2021.......0-4 without Brady.......and I don't see McBeane surviving that indignity let alone getting to 0-12.     

 

[newcam2012]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Broader analysis aside.......if they didn't nail the Josh Allen pick I think McDermott's 0-6 start against Belichick becomes 0-10 by 2021.......0-4 without Brady.......and I don't see McBeane surviving that indignity let alone getting to 0-12.     

 

The Allen pick saved the franchise. It's the major reason why the Bills have made so many straight playoff appearances. Without Allen, the Bills team would have been stuck in mediocrity.

 

You have to give Beane and McD credit for Allen. It was no easy choice and it came with lots of risk. It worked out and they have set this franchise up for 15 years of success. 

 

Beane and McD also deserve credit for building a culture and building up a franchise that was entangled in decades of disappointment and losing. 

 

I think the above two mentioned paragraphs clouds how we fans think of Beane and McD. On one hand, they built a winner and found the highly sought after franchise QB. They have built a winning team that has made I believe six straight playoff appearances. A feat to be proud of. Football sure has been much much more fun for Buffalo fans.

 

However, Beane and McD have failed to make the next jump. Failed to get over the hump. Failed to get to the ultimate goal.

 

It feels like it's starting to slip away...The team seems to lack an identity on offense. On defense, the team just cannot preform at a high level when it counts. The coaching staff looks vulnerable. The schemes look less than dynamic. 

 

I was high and optimistic going into last season. I can't say the same about next year. 😞😞😞

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

The Allen pick saved the franchise. It's the major reason why the Bills have made so many straight playoff appearances. Without Allen, the Bills team would have been stuck in mediocrity.

 

You have to give Beane and McD credit for Allen. It was no easy choice and it came with lots of risk. It worked out and they have set this franchise up for 15 years of success. 

 

Beane and McD also deserve credit for building a culture and building up a franchise that was entangled in decades of disappointment and losing. 

 

I think the above two mentioned paragraphs clouds how we fans think of Beane and McD. On one hand, they built a winner and found the highly sought after franchise QB. They have built a winning team that has made I believe six straight playoff appearances. A feat to be proud of. Football sure has been much much more fun for Buffalo fans.

 

However, Beane and McD have failed to make the next jump. Failed to get over the hump. Failed to get to the ultimate goal.

 

It feels like it's starting to slip away...The team seems to lack an identity on offense. On defense, the team just cannot preform at a high level when it counts. The coaching staff looks vulnerable. The schemes look less than dynamic. 

 

I was high and optimistic going into last season. I can't say the same about next year. 😞😞😞

 

 

The Allen pick saved the franchise but I don't feel their chances slipping away...........they just need Beane to live up to his hype and have a big offseason.

 

Beane got way too much undeserved praise early in his GM career.......he wasn't an experienced personnel man when he took the job and it showed but I do think he's highly intelligent and trying to learn and get better(as opposed to his former boss Gettelman who was inflexible by nature).

 

Having picked Allen has given Beane the opportunity to grow into the job and now he needs to string together some championship level offseasons. 

[K-9]

5 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

This raises an interesting question that I was pondering the other day.

 

What if Allen had lived up to expectations, meaning, he was a total bust?  

 

Would the McBeane administration still be here?  If not, when would they have gone?  

 

 I don't think they'd still be here.

 

 

Nobody and I mean nobody in the personnel business who actually do this for a living in the NFL had an expectation that Allen would be a bust. Indeed, the scouting reports were spot on. The bust narrative was a fabricated theme generated by uninformed talking head pundits who don’t have the resources to do the due diligence required to make informed analysis. 

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, K-9 said:

Nobody and I mean nobody in the personnel business who actually do this for a living in the NFL had an expectation that Allen would be a bust. Indeed, the scouting reports were spot on. The bust narrative was a fabricated theme generated by uninformed talking head pundits who don’t have the resources to do the due diligence required to make informed analysis. 

Depends on what you mean by bust. 

 

Allen had a huge ceiling but an equally low floor. He was raw, unpolished, and most importantly his accuracy numbers were sub par. Allen's progression of accuracy is more of an anomaly than the norm.

 

No one ever questioned his physical talent. That was clear as day. 

 

 

[K-9]

27 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

Depends on what you mean by bust. 

 

Allen had a huge ceiling but an equally low floor. He was raw, unpolished, and most importantly his accuracy numbers were sub par. Allen's progression of accuracy is more of an anomaly than the norm.

 

No one ever questioned his physical talent. That was clear as day. 

 

 

By bust, I mean that he wasn’t gonna be a starter in the league, let alone measure up to his status as the 7th overall pick. That was strictly a fabricated narrative based on a shallow interpretation of college stats by talking head pundits. But it was NEVER the consensus among NFL scouts and other talent evaluators, who had the resources to conduct in depth evaluations of not only his physical attributes for the position but his aptitude for the job as well. They were also able to put his “accuracy numbers” in context as well, because pro scouts and other talent evaluators know that accuracy doesn’t just mean completion percentage, which is all the talking heads pointed to as proof that he wasn’t going to succeed. 
 

The only concern scouts had was his experience at the position, which was virtually none as compared to other college prospects who attend elite camps starting in middle school and specialize in the position throughout high school and college all the while getting dedicated coaching at the position and all it entails. Scouts knew Allen had none of that and that it would take a time investment to get him up to speed at the position. How much time it would take was the only question and it was just a matter of when not if he would be a star.

 

The scouting community was quite unanimous in its evaluation, despite what less informed talking heads would have us believe. 

[CorkScrewHill]

On 2/8/2023 at 7:09 AM, JGMcD2 said:

Updating my analysis of league-wide draft success for the third time. 

 

I'm linking the previous two versions here as well as including updated charts based on some requests I've received.

 

The old posts below explain the methodology and provide a snapshot of where teams stood at those points in time. 

 

2021

 

League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive

 

2022

*UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive

 

 

 

 

2017 - 2019

 

 

 

2020 - 2022

 

 

 

 

This to me shows they were best in the league for a 3 year period and then 11th for the subsequent 3 year period ( though the 2nd set will likely change as those players continue to develop - for good or bad). 
 

It seems like People have unrealistic expectations that every high draft pick should develop into a perennial all-pro. They view Edmunds as a bust .. yet the league will soon say via a contract that he is very good. We look at Gabe Davis, who had a rough year, and write him off yet when his time comes he too will get a nice contract .. and lest we forget he was a 4th round pick. I like this analysis as it compares the Bills drafting to other teams .. rather in the imaginary bubble where all other teams have rocked the last 6 drafts

[Manther]

On 2/8/2023 at 10:55 AM, newcam2012 said:

Looking back at the Oliver pick. It was a fairly big risk solely on his size. I myself was intrigued by his athleticism and liked the pick. However, his size measurables are in the bottom tier in every category. Drafting is about accessing risks and this probably should have gotten the Bills off of Oliver. I mean how many dominant Dline players are 6'1" or 6'2" 285? I can't think of any but im sure there are a few. 

 

Of course it's easier to criticize after the fact. 

 

 

I was on board with him and agree with your thought process.  In hindsight we should have drafted a OL or WR.  That was a super high pick.  I hate when we draft DL for our rotation.  Premium picks need to play premium snaps.

[BillsVet]

9 hours ago, newcam2012 said:

Depends on what you mean by bust. 

 

Allen had a huge ceiling but an equally low floor. He was raw, unpolished, and most importantly his accuracy numbers were sub par. Allen's progression of accuracy is more of an anomaly than the norm.

 

No one ever questioned his physical talent. That was clear as day. 

 

Josh Allen had the right stuff in between the ears.  Yeah, few people have his physical talent, particularly the arm strength (as we saw at the end of the Lions game) but it's the mental part of overcoming adversity and learning from his mistakes.  He'd be one of the last people latching onto the TBD narrative about how hard it was this season with all the off-field stuff.    

 

I have no doubt McBeane saw this in the scouting process and it's a big reason why they pursued him.