Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III

[BillsVet]

2 hours ago, CookieG said:

Im just going ot mention this with a smile.  Seems appropriate, considering the Eagles are in the SB and many consider them the most comeplete roster in the league.

 

It was written in November of 2020 by some Philly "beat writer". Does it sound familiar?

 

1. In 2013, the Eagles drafted Lane Johnson and Zach Ertz. Since then, Howie Roseman’s drafts have landed the Eagles exactly one Pro Bowl player, and that’s Carson Wentz. The only defensive player Roseman has ever drafted who’s made a Pro Bowl is Fletcher Cox, the 12th pick in the 2012 draft. One defensive Pro Bowler in nine drafts (not counting this year). He’s never found a defensive Pro Bowler after the 12th pick overall. Wentz is also the only Pro Bowler Roseman has drafted who’ll be in his 20s on opening day next year. It’s not just J.J. Arcega-Whiteside instead of D.J. Metcalf. This has been happening for years. Scrounging up functional starters from the late rounds or the practice squad or the waiver wire is fine. But you need stars to win big. Studs. Elite players. And Howie’s failure to deliver star power to this roster has made it virtually impossible for the Eagles to compete on a regular basis with the NFL’s best teams. Maybe Miles Sanders or Dallas Goedert becomes a full-fledged star, but right now there isn’t a single elite player in his 20s on this roster, and that’s a damning indictment of Roseman’s draft record. Every GM has misses. Every GM has big misses. But you can’t afford to have the big misses without the big hits. Doug Pederson has been awful. Wentz has been terrible. But when you look at the Eagles’ decline, it all starts in the GM’s office.

 

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/philadelphia/eagles/howie-rosemans-shocking-draft-record-and-more-roobs-random-observations

 

Philly won the SB under a previous HC (Doug Pederson) when this was written.  

 

Writing like this reinforces how large market teams' coverage demands success and, when not achieved, don't hold back in their criticism.  If Buffalo was a big market, there'd be a lot more of this writing after the '21 and '22 season playoffs ended for the Bills. 

[DCofNC]

6 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Are you saying Douglas has drafted well outside of this year? Because that’s just not true. 

Nope, the original post was that Douglas is in hot water based on QB misses, but good otherwise.  I asked, would you rather have him?

[Airseven]

Somebody posted that Bills draft picks haven’t washed out of the league during their rookie deals so it’s all good.

[Chaos]

11 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Updating my analysis of league-wide draft success for the third time. 

 

I'm linking the previous two versions here as well as including updated charts based on some requests I've received.

 

The old posts below explain the methodology and provide a snapshot of where teams stood at those points in time. 

 

2021

 

League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive

 

2022

*UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive

 

 

 

 

2017 - 2019

 

 

 

2020 - 2022

 

 

 

 

Have you looked at this if you remove Allen, Burrows and Mahomes? 

[ticketssince61]

It would be interesting to factor in draft picks that were used to trade up (or down) by counting a given up pick as a "zero"

 

I think Beane trades up too much and costs us a lot of cheap depth and often times those players would possibly have still been available at our spot

 

It is especially painful when the player selected in the trade turns out to be terrible (Zay Jones, Cody Ford, ...) 

 

 

 

 

[Coach Tuesday]

2 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Well what's the measuring stick then Coach... you didn't give one. 

Core player?

[JGMcD2]

Just now, Coach Tuesday said:

Core player?

High-ceiling premium player is entirely different than a core player… 

 

And how do you measure a core player? How do you determine if they’re a high ceiling premium player? 

Edited February 9, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Coach Tuesday]

4 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

High-ceiling premium player is entirely different than a core player… 

 

And how do you measure a core player? How do you determine if they’re a high ceiling premium player? 

Top-tier starter.  A player you’d sign to a second contract at market.  

[4merper4mer]

9 hours ago, Big Turk said:

So basically they had 3 great drafts followed by 3 "Meh" drafts, while CIN and KC had a top draft in successive seasons in 2020 and 2021, which tells a pretty good story.  Also both had rookie draft classes that performed better than ours this year.

 

10 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks for posting this. It shows the problem pretty darn well. The Bills better start hitting on some draft picks NOW if they don’t want to drive this car into a ditch. Eventually you just run out of money. The burning question is whether the picks aren’t any good, or whether there’s a disconnect between the coaching staff, scouting department, and front office. 

So the Bills were the best overall in a three year period and the were 11th best…..roughly top 3rd…..in the next three year period which including spending a draft pick on Diggs who is excluded from the analysis.  
 

During this time Beane assembled one of two NFL teams to win 3 straight division titles.

 

Conclusion:  Beane is a complete failure who is not keeping up.  
 

Seems legit

[JGMcD2]

1 minute ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Top-tier starter.  A player you’d sign to a second contract at market.  

Still not sure how you’re determining whether or not you’d sign a player to a second contact at market?
 

I’d say AJ Brown is a player that should get a second contract at market but the Titans felt otherwise. Roquan Smith falls into the same category. What about JC Jackson?  How about Jalen Ramsey? Maybe Joe Thuney or Brandon Scherff? 

[Rock'em Sock'em]

9 hours ago, DCofNC said:

I think Beane would have taken Baker if he could have and had to settle for the raw prospect.

 

FACT: At least when this picture was taken, their draft board had Allen #1, Darnold 2, Mayfield 3.  They would have traded up for any of the them.  Oddly, Jackson was not on their board.

 

 

 

Edited February 9, 2023 by Rock'em Sock'em

[Coach Tuesday]

47 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Still not sure how you’re determining whether or not you’d sign a player to a second contact at market?
 

I’d say AJ Brown is a player that should get a second contract at market but the Titans felt otherwise. Roquan Smith falls into the same category. What about JC Jackson?  How about Jalen Ramsey? Maybe Joe Thuney or Brandon Scherff? 

Dude stop.  You’re playing word games and you know it.  AJ Brown and Jalen Ramsey are premier players at premium positions regardless of their AP honors.  Roquan Smith and the guards are not premium positions.  JC Jackson was undrafted.  

[JGMcD2]

3 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Dude stop.  You’re playing word games and you know it.  AJ Brown and Jalen Ramsey are premier players at premium positions regardless of their AP honors.  Roquan Smith and the guards are not premium positions.  JC Jackson was undrafted.  

How am I playing word games? I’m trying to nail down a definition here because you didn’t like the All-Pro barometer. 
 

Are you willing to go through 2018 - 2022 and hand select the high-ceiling premium players drafted? 

[Coach Tuesday]

9 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

How am I playing word games? I’m trying to nail down a definition here because you didn’t like the All-Pro barometer. 
 

Are you willing to go through 2018 - 2022 and hand select the high-ceiling premium players drafted? 

Sure, if you’re willing to pay my hourly rate.

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Sure, if you’re willing to pay my hourly rate.

I mean I’ll do it… I just need to know how you’d define it. 
 

I feel like All-Pro is pretty darn close to capturing everyone you’d select. 

[Billl]

10 hours ago, MJS said:

Allen was their #1 QB. In their draft videos you can see the order of QB's on a white board.

I don't see how Beane can be held accountable for the draft successes of another team.

They why did they wait until pick 7?  They had enough ammo to move up way higher, but they let 6 players and 2 QBs get picked before they moved up.  Beane basically won a coin toss by choosing the best QB out of the two left.  He gets TONS of credit for getting the biggest decision in sports right, but he’s shot blanks in the draft for 4 seasons since then, and no amount of choosing the right QB changes that fact.  
 

Last year’s draft should have opened a lot of eyes, but everyone wanted to hand waive it away.  Buffalo needed a CB and everyone knew it.  Kansas City jumped them and took McDuffie who was an elite prospect that slid beyond where he should have.  The apologists want to say that Beane never would’ve drafted him because of stupid reasons like his arms being a fraction of an inch too short or whatever.  (If that’s true, then it’s an even bigger inditement against Beane’s evaluations, but that’s a different conversation).
 

Even if it’s true that Elam was the target all along and he winds up being the superior player, it doesn’t change the fact that Beane allowed the Chiefs the opportunity to steal their guy.  Beane was willing to trade up to 23 after KC jumped them but not to 20 proactively?  That’s ridiculous on its face.  What if Kansas City had taken Elam?  The same argument holds true.  Beane allowed his biggest nemesis to dictate who he was allowed to pick in the first round when the cost to prevent it was the difference between trading up to 20 versus 23.

 

 Maybe the homers are right and Beane would never have targeted McDuffie.  Andy Reid and Brett Veach identified their guy, identified Buffalo as a viable threat, and made the move to jump them in order to get their guy.  That was a bad look for Beane, and the look on his face in the video from the war room when the trade was announced said it all.  The absolute best case scenario is that Beane got lucky that Kansas City didn’t take the guy he wanted.  Credit to Beane for trading up and not risking getting jumped again, but he shouldn’t have been caught with his pants down in the first place.

 

[JGMcD2]

37 minutes ago, Billl said:

They why did they wait until pick 7?  They had enough ammo to move up way higher, but they let 6 players and 2 QBs get picked before they moved up.  Beane basically won a coin toss by choosing the best QB out of the two left. 

They didn’t wait until pick 7 just because… it takes another party to agree to a trade. 
 

They had an agreement in place with Denver (12, 22 and 2nd round) to move up that was contingent on Bradley Chubb not being there. Elway backed out when Chubb was there. That was the highest they could possibly get outside of 3 or 6 and the Colts didn’t want to move from 3 to 12… that’s why they made the deal with the Jets in the first place. Ballard turned in the Nelson pick without even listening to offers. 
 

Those are facts above, this is speculation here, if they were willing to give up 12, 22 and a 2nd in that draft to move up to 5…. why wouldn’t they be willing to give up more to go higher? That’s already a significant offer. Only the Colts moved out of the top 5… everyone else stood pat… what else can you do at that point? Teams weren’t willing to move. 

There were also 3 QBs left at that point - many thought Rosen was the best. 

[newcam2012]

4 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

Philly won the SB under a previous HC (Doug Pederson) when this was written.  

 

Writing like this reinforces how large market teams' coverage demands success and, when not achieved, don't hold back in their criticism.  If Buffalo was a big market, there'd be a lot more of this writing after the '21 and '22 season playoffs ended for the Bills. 

That last paragraph is 100% spot on. 

 

The Buffalo media treats Beane with kid gloves. His presser was a great example of that. If he were in Philly he would have been verbally assaulted off the stage. The one media guy

(Sullivan) who was confrontational was run out of the building. 

 

The fans are mostly satisfied with playoff births and great seasonal records. Heck, its way way better than the past. Maybe next year will be the year mentality sets in. 

 

Bills coaches feel very less pressure to win then most other teams. At least that's my opinion. Coach McD has instilled a high character team. Football isn't his everything like Belicheck or Brady. Right or wrong I think the team is soft in many ways. We clearly saw that vs Cinci and in many ways the Miami game too. 

 

I don't see this team being better next year. I don't see the coaching staff making  significant changes to improve. 

[Doc Brown]

Beane should just let me make his second round picks for him.  Ford, Epenesa, and Basham - yikes.   I would've taken AJ Brown, Dobbins, and Humphrey for what it's worth.  Ignore my post history and just take my word for it.

[Richard Noggin]

52 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

That last paragraph is 100% spot on. 

 

The Buffalo media treats Beane with kid gloves. His presser was a great example of that. If he were in Philly he would have been verbally assaulted off the stage. The one media guy

(Sullivan) who was confrontational was run out of the building. 

 

The fans are mostly satisfied with playoff births and great seasonal records. Heck, its way way better than the past. Maybe next year will be the year mentality sets in. 

 

Bills coaches feel very less pressure to win then most other teams. At least that's my opinion. Coach McD has instilled a high character team. Football isn't his everything like Belicheck or Brady. Right or wrong I think the team is soft in many ways. We clearly saw that vs Cinci and in many ways the Miami game too. 

 

I don't see this team being better next year. I don't see the coaching staff making  significant changes to improve. 

 

You take serious liberties with the actual facts in 4/5 paragraphs quoted above.