Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III

[Success]

It's too early to grade last years draft, imo.  I think Elam, Shakir & Cook were all used too sparingly to gauge, and think all of them will be big contributors moving forward.  

 

And we have no idea yet what we have w/ Bernard.  He wasn't supposed to be a rookie starter.

 

[dave mcbride]

4 hours ago, JGMcD2 said:

Updating my analysis of league-wide draft success for the third time. 

 

I'm linking the previous two versions here as well as including updated charts based on some requests I've received.

 

The old posts below explain the methodology and provide a snapshot of where teams stood at those points in time. 

 

2021

 

League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive

 

2022

*UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive

 

 

 

 

2017 - 2019

 

 

 

2020 - 2022

 

 

 

 

Does the 2020 number factor in their first round pick, Stefon Diggs? Because he sure as hell a Bills draft pick that year. 

[SCBills]

8 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

QB hides a lot.  In comparison, would you take Douglas vs Beane aside from the QB misses?   The thing is there are like 10 guys at any given time in the NFL that ever stand out as a Qb, you have one, you win games.  
 

Aside from Allen, I think Beane would be gone.  It’s not only the draft, but his FA and his handling of the 5th year options has been awful too. 

 

I'd agree.  Everyone would likely be gone.  That's just how it goes in the NFL.  If you can't lock down the QB position, you're a year to year HC/GM.  

 

Outside Allen, he's definitely been a mixed bag.

 

Day 1 has been solid.  Diggs, Edmunds, Rousseau (good).  Oliver (bad).  Elam (TBD).

 

Day 2 has been an absolute mess.

 

Day 3 has also been solid.

 

Free Agency has been below average.  Way too much focus on OL depth/flex and DL rotation (which has produced poor results).  Not enough focus on WR and legit protection for Allen.  We also have paid quite a bit for ST's depth guys.. a strange luxury to focus on when you have such an expensive roster.  

 

Jones and Von were steps in the right direction.  Not much we can do when our two best DL, both acquired via FA, missed the game that ended our season.

 

Nice point about the 5th year options.   If we were always going to extend Edmunds, why on earth did we wait, knowing this likely cost us a few million when we put a better DL in front of him for much of the season in his contract year?  Why did we pick up Oliver's 5th year option?  That 11.5M could be used to sign a premium OL or towards a Meyers or OBJ in FA.  Maybe we trade him, but this team continues to NOT do things that seem obvious to everyone, so... 

[MJS]

21 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Ok, then hold him accountable for the failures of his own.   The fact is he tried to say Cincinnati is better because they have been drafting higher and KC has been drafting below us and finding better players.  

Hold him accountable for having average and above average drafts? What are you proposing? How do we hold Beane accountable?

[BullBuchanan]

If this model suggests that the Bills are the best team in the league at drafting, I might suggest the model doesn't have much value. In 5 years we've drafted 2 great players and a handful of good ones.

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

If this model suggests that the Bills are the best team int he league at drafting, I might suggest the model doesn't have value. In 5 years we've drafted 2 great players and a handful of good ones.

And this was born out of statements exactly like this… other teams aren’t doing much better or better at all. 
 

They were very good 17-19 and middle of the pack 20-22. What’s wrong about that? 

[newcam2012]

54 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

6-1 / 285 hardly screams 1 tech or even 3 tech. We've swung and missed on AJ & Boogie. And I'm not even convinced Groot will be more than a 8-9 sack guy.  We need an elite pass rusher after Von leaves which will probably be in 2 years. Would've been nice if Ed was more dominant but it didn't happen. I'm sure we haven't seen the end of McD grasping at defensive players. But if Beane doesn't put his foot down and demand a shift to offense, they'll all lose the locker room.

I agree. I think this year is crucial for the coaching staff. If things go sour, I can totally see the players like Diggs expressing his dissatisfaction. It could be the start of turmoil. 

 

McD will be on the hot sear but likely be safe. The scapegoats will be Frazier and Dorsey. 

[BullBuchanan]

2 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

And this was born out of statements exactly like this… other teams aren’t doing much better or better at all. 
 

They were very good 17-19 and middle of the pack 20-22. What’s wrong about that? 

What's wrong with it, is they weren't very good at all. They ranked highly in this model, which is great but not sure that correlates to successful drafts.

Take out 2017 because that was Whaley's draft, and the results are not in the Bills' favor at all. Looking at 1st-3rd round picks across each draft of the last 5 years is pretty disappointing. I think what's skewing this is the Bills starting players that shouldn't be starting.

[JGMcD2]

2 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

What's wrong with it, is they weren't very good at all. They ranked highly in this model, which is great but not sure that correlates to successful drafts.

Take out 2017 because that was Whaley's draft, and the results are not in the Bills' favor at all. Looking at 1st-3rd round picks across each draft of the last 5 years is pretty disappointing. I think what's skewing this is the Bills starting players that shouldn't be starting.

If they weren’t very good what does it say about the other teams that are graded on the same scale? 

[Big Turk]

9 minutes ago, newcam2012 said:

I agree. I think this year is crucial for the coaching staff. If things go sour, I can totally see the players like Diggs expressing his dissatisfaction. It could be the start of turmoil. 

 

McD will be on the hot sear but likely be safe. The scapegoats will be Frazier and Dorsey. 

 

Hate to break the news to you, but McD is not only NOT on the hot seat, it's probably about as ice cold as it could get.  You are dreaming if you think he is going anywhere without multiple losing seasons with a good team.

[BullBuchanan]

1 minute ago, JGMcD2 said:

If they weren’t very good what does it say about the other teams that are graded on the same scale? 

it says they grade poorly on a model. You can't use a single model to determine truth. They are inputs from which insights must be gleaned. They don't tell you how to interpret the data or whether the data is valid.

You could create a model of career earnings of people based on their favorite color and find a runaway with people who loved orange and found that those who liked green earned the least. That wouldn't mean it was a reliable predictor of anything.

[JGMcD2]

7 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

it says they grade poorly on a model. You can't use a single model to determine truth. They are inputs from which insights must be gleaned. They don't tell you how to interpret the data or whether the data is valid.

You could create a model of career earnings of people based on their favorite color and find a runaway with people who loved orange and found that those who liked green earned the least. That wouldn't mean it was a reliable predictor of anything.

Except it’s based on something that measures a football player’s performance and we are talking about football players and their performance in the context of the draft…. 

 

It’s far more reliable than your anecdote of salaries and colors or your personal opinion of “2 great players and a handful of good ones.” 
 

Also, this isn’t intended to be a “predictor” of anything… it’s an evaluation of the past. 
 

Nobody implied this was perfect. Why don’t you tell me how you’d go about objectively measuring past draft success? 

Edited February 8, 2023 by JGMcD2

[BullBuchanan]

10 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Except it’s based on something that measures a football player’s performance and we are talking about football players and their performance in the context of the draft…. 

 

It’s far more reliable than your anecdote of salaries and colors or your personal opinion of “2 great players and a handful of good ones.” 
 

Also, this isn’t intended to be a “predictor” of anything… it’s an evaluation of the past. 
 

Nobody implied this was perfect. 

Yes, but you understand that are an infinite number of ways you could try to evaluate success and it doesn't mean that any of those models have to accurately do so, right?

This model ranks Wyatt Teller as a 5th round pick that has 2 2nd team all pros and 2 pro bowls as a 29 which is equal to how they rank Ed Oliver as a 9th overall pick.

Cody Ford is a 15 and Dawson Knox is a 16...

John Miller (remember him?) is a 31.

If that doesn't make you reconsider treating this in a HIGHLY skeptical manner, I can't help you.

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[ngbills]

3 hours ago, HeHateMe said:

If the Browns drafted Allen, Beane would probably have been fired at this point.  His drafts haven't been good.  

We would likely have drafted Sam Darnold...

[SCBills]

26 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

And this was born out of statements exactly like this… other teams aren’t doing much better or better at all. 
 

They were very good 17-19 and middle of the pack 20-22. What’s wrong about that? 

 

It's just a different world that we're now living in.  Every decision has to be weighed against the question "Does this help us win a Super Bowl"?

 

As of right now, we can't even get back to the AFC Championship Game.

 

The reason for that is because KC and Cincinnati also have elite QB's and are out-performing us in recent drafts and off-season decision making... amongst other issues like being superior to us in terms of coaching and coordinators. 

 

We could be better in coaching, free agency and drafting than every other team in the AFC but the Chiefs and Bengals... but if we can't get past either of them when it matters, that's a massive problem. 

 

Von going down was a killer.  There should be some grace for that.  If Chris Jones goes down like Von did, KC is not in the Super Bowl.  However, when we're at 3 years in a row of this.. you start to lose the fanbase when it comes to, perhaps, valid excuses (Von, Hyde, Hamlin, Kim etc.,)

[BADOLBILZ]

Where Beane has really failed is in free agency.

 

In 5 offseason the only "value" free agent he's added and gotten production from is Daryl Williams.

 

It's hard to be that inefficient. 

 

All the good external free agents he signed he paid top of the market for........even last season when money was tight............and the amount he grossly overpaid to some in those 5 offseasons is staggering.

 

Not just the 2018 class where he dumped about $100M on dud starters..........it's all the $6M-$7M aav deals for backups like Nsekhe, Norman, Klein, Butler etc...........you can't pay backups that kind of money.     

[JGMcD2]

34 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

Yes, but you understand that are an infinite number of ways you could try to evaluate success and it doesn't mean that any of those models have to accurately do so, right?

This model ranks Wyatt Teller as a 5th round pick that has 2 2nd team all pros and 2 pro bowls as a 29 which is equal to how they rank Ed Oliver as a 9th overall pick.

Cody Ford is a 15 and Dawson Knox is a 16...

John Miller (remember him?) is a 31.

If that doesn't make you reconsider treating this in a HIGHLY skeptical manner, I can't help you.

Well you just proved that you didn’t read how this was done… I’m not going to explain it all over again just for you. If you’d like to go back and understand how it was done you’re more than welcome to. 
 

At that point I’ll be more than willing to hear your criticism. 

 

FWIW the Bills are actually penalized for Wyatt Teller because he didn't have that success with them... they received a negative point value for Teller.

 

Ed Oliver received a positive score albeit nowhere close to 29... it was around 5 or 6 points. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by JGMcD2

[Charles Romes]

4 hours ago, BearNorth said:

Kansas City has worse drafting positions than we do every year, but they rank 4th overall.  That pretty much falls on Beane and his college scouting dept.

 

We used a second on Cook when there were decent OL available, they found Pacheco under our noses [Rutgers] for a 7th.

the pressure of striking out with highly drafted RBs kicked in so they panicked and had to expend even more draft capital. 

[BullBuchanan]

18 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Well you just proved that you didn’t read how this was done… I’m not going to explain it all over again just for you. 
 

If you’d like to go back and understand how it was done you’re more than welcome to. 
 

At that point I’ll be more than willing to hear your criticism. 

 

FWIW the Bills are actually penalized for Wyatt Teller because he didn't have that success with them...

no, I read it. Your model is flawed because it's based on a known bad value.

This doesn't work. It's definitely an admirable attempt, but the underlying data isn't any good.|

 

 

"What I did was found the average value for a player drafted in each round (1-7) in each year (2017-2019) and the calculated what I am calling the Net Drafted Accumulated Value (NETDrAV) for each pick in each round. I only compared each draft to itself. I then found the Total Net Drafted Accumulated Value (TOT_NETDrAV) for each team in each draft and ranked them against each other. Rather than just looking at how much raw value the Bills brought in as compared to the 31 other teams, this gives an idea of how much extra value they extracted in each round as compared to the 31 other teams in the league. 

 

TOT_NETDrAV is the AV that a team has benefitted from directly on their team as compared to players and teams in their draft class.

 

TOT_NETCarAV is just the pure amount of value that players drafted by a given team have produced as compared to players and teams in their draft class."

Edited February 8, 2023 by BullBuchanan

[John from Riverside]

I don’t suppose that anything is taken into account that McDermott just likes to play as veterans and these young guys are waiting for their chance?