Draft Success Measured by AV - Part III

[JGMcD2]

Updating my analysis of league-wide draft success for the third time. 

 

I'm linking the previous two versions here as well as including updated charts based on some requests I've received.

 

The old posts below explain the methodology and provide a snapshot of where teams stood at those points in time. 

 

2021

 

League Wide Draft Success 2017-2019 - A Follow Up - The Stadium Wall Archives - Two Bills Drive

 

2022

*UPDATED* Draft Success - Measured by AV - The Stadium Wall - Two Bills Drive

 

 

 

 

2017 - 2019

 

 

 

2020 - 2022

 

 

 

 

[SoCal Deek]

Thanks for posting this. It shows the problem pretty darn well. The Bills better start hitting on some draft picks NOW if they don’t want to drive this car into a ditch. Eventually you just run out of money. The burning question is whether the picks aren’t any good, or whether there’s a disconnect between the coaching staff, scouting department, and front office. 

Edited February 8, 2023 by SoCal Deek

[Big Turk]

So basically they had 3 great drafts followed by 3 "Meh" drafts, while CIN and KC had a top draft in successive seasons in 2020 and 2021, which tells a pretty good story.  Also both had rookie draft classes that performed better than ours this year.

[BearNorth]

Kansas City has worse drafting positions than we do every year, but they rank 4th overall.  That pretty much falls on Beane and his college scouting dept.

 

We used a second on Cook when there were decent OL available, they found Pacheco under our noses [Rutgers] for a 7th.

[DCofNC]

3 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Kansas City has worse drafting positions than we do every year, but they rank 4th overall.  That pretty much falls on Beane and his college scouting dept.

 

We used a second on Cook when there were decent OL available, they found Pacheco under our noses [Rutgers] for a 7th.

Yep, they have out drafted the Bills at virtually every corner, starting with Maholmes.  This last draft is one of, if not the biggest example of Beane’s tendency to lock onto a position and draft purely for need, regardless of the talent on the board.   Need CB, force that pick, “need” a pass catching RB, force that pick.  Need a cover LB for this antique defensive system WAY WAY over draft a character guy who’s coach happens to be a McD buddy.. Just awful. 
 

KC sees a player they want, moves ahead of the likely teams who would draft them, lands the player the Bills want, who subsequently force a pick that doesn’t fit their scheme.  KC screwed up once in drafting a pass catching back and realizes they don’t need to waste high picks on a RB  with their system, draft a speed/size guy late, who crushes the output of the Bills second rounder.. forget about Boogie instead of Humphrey etc.   Beane’s drafts are mediocre at best if you subtract Allen, which btw was another forced pick, but it did work out.

[HeHateMe]

If the Browns drafted Allen, Beane would probably have been fired at this point.  His drafts haven't been good.  

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

Do you have an AV breakdown by player ? 

 

I'm curious how a guy like Spencer Brown rates. As a 3rd round pick just being a starter will look good on some metrics. 

[DCofNC]

3 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

Do you have an AV breakdown by player ? 

 

I'm curious how a guy like Spencer Brown rates. As a 3rd round pick just being a starter will look good on some metrics. 

I’d like to understand the metrics as well.  Let’s be honest, starter by default is not a ringing endorsement of success, but it may be in some metrics. 

[H2o]

I think we have all been left with numerous head scratching moments watching the draft. Some of it I chalk up to being the typical armchair GM, but others have really been "what were they thinking" types of scenarios. At some point you have to draft BPA's at your weaknesses in the mid-late rounds, rather than all of that jargon about "staying true to our board" which obviously hasn't worked. If your weakness is along the OL, take the highest rated lineman you have on your board in that 2nd,  3rd, or 4th Round. Don't just draft a LB, or a DT, or a DE, or anyone else for that matter just for the sake of drafting one because of your board. They have passed up on some guys who could have really helped us at positions of need by sticking to their board at times. 

[DCofNC]

9 minutes ago, HeHateMe said:

If the Browns drafted Allen, Beane would probably have been fired at this point.  His drafts haven't been good.  

I don’t think that’s even a question.  Imagine giving up what they did to move up and land anybody else besides Jackson, who wasn’t really considered one of the top choices.  Beane went all in and won, but it didn’t really seem like Allen was the primary target, I think Beane would have taken Baker if he could have and had to settle for the raw prospect.

[NewEra]

5 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I don’t think that’s even a question.  Imagine giving up what they did to move up and land anybody else besides Jackson, who wasn’t really considered one of the top choices.  Beane went all in and won, but it didn’t really seem like Allen was the primary target, I think Beane would have taken Baker if he could have and had to settle for the raw prospect.

Why do you think that?

[DCofNC]

Just now, NewEra said:

Why do you think that?

Comments Beane made when asked if they got their guy, something to effect of “we’re happy to have Josh”.  It wasn’t exactly, “he was the guy we were really hoping to land, couldn’t be more excited!”  They also spent a lot of time on Baker and he was the more pro ready guy, who do you think McD would be more confident in?

[MJS]

4 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Comments Beane made when asked if they got their guy, something to effect of “we’re happy to have Josh”.  It wasn’t exactly, “he was the guy we were really hoping to land, couldn’t be more excited!”  They also spent a lot of time on Baker and he was the more pro ready guy, who do you think McD would be more confident in?

Allen was their #1 QB. In their draft videos you can see the order of QB's on a white board.

58 minutes ago, BearNorth said:

Kansas City has worse drafting positions than we do every year, but they rank 4th overall.  That pretty much falls on Beane and his college scouting dept.

 

We used a second on Cook when there were decent OL available, they found Pacheco under our noses [Rutgers] for a 7th.

I don't see how Beane can be held accountable for the draft successes of another team.

[Lost]

Does the team have different scouts/talent evaluators working for them the last 3 years than they did in 2017-2019?   That's quite a dropoff in draft quality.

[JGMcD2]

4 minutes ago, Lost said:

Does the team have different scouts/talent evaluators working for them the last 3 years than they did in 2017-2019?   That's quite a dropoff in draft quality.

Drafting in the back half of each round is going to have a big influence on that. 

[H2o]

12 minutes ago, MJS said:

I don't see how Beane can be held accountable for the draft successes of another team.

 Agreed. He was passed on 250 times by every other team in succession. The Chiefs themselves made 8 picks before Pacheko. 

[SCBills]

36 minutes ago, H2o said:

I think we have all been left with numerous head scratching moments watching the draft. Some of it I chalk up to being the typical armchair GM, but others have really been "what were they thinking" types of scenarios. At some point you have to draft BPA's at your weaknesses in the mid-late rounds, rather than all of that jargon about "staying true to our board" which obviously hasn't worked. If your weakness is along the OL, take the highest rated lineman you have on your board in that 2nd,  3rd, or 4th Round. Don't just draft a LB, or a DT, or a DE, or anyone else for that matter just for the sake of drafting one because of your board. They have passed up on some guys who could have really helped us at positions of need by sticking to their board at times. 

 

When the collective fanbase is at a loss for picks like Basham and Bernard, and then Basham does nothing for 2 years of his rookie contract, while Bernard can't even see the field as a rookie when there are injuries ahead of him... I think it's beyond armchair GM's.

 

I don't ever want to feel like we know more than our FO, yet lately, it seems like it... at least on Day 2. 

 

Edited February 8, 2023 by SCBills

[MJS]

Thanks for posting. I've always really liked this analysis. I'd like to see the same for free agency additions to complete the picture.

 

I think this shows that the Bills have been a good drafting team, but have gone downhill the past couple of years and are now average. Let's hope they get things turned around. We could use a really good draft.

 

The past two drafts have had some questionable picks. Rousseau was a good pick, but then they double dipped and went with Basham. I think that was a mistake. Last year, Elam was a good pick, but they drafted Bernard who didn't fit our scheme and it's hard to see how he fits in given that Milano is locked up. He isn't an Edmunds replacement.

 

Beane needs to get his mojo back.

Edited February 8, 2023 by MJS

[Lost]

6 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Drafting in the back half of each round is going to have a big influence on that. 

 

Well I also wondered if these ratings were weighted by teams draft position but I guess you just answered that.  

[JGMcD2]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Thanks for posting. I've always really liked this analysis. I'd like to see the same for free agency additions to complete the picture.

 

I think this shows that the Bills have been a good drafting team, but have gone downhill the past couple of years and are now average. Let's hope they get things turned around. We could use a really good draft.

 

The past two drafts have had some questionable picks. Rousseau was a good pick, but they they double dipped and went with Basham. I think that was a mistake. Last year Elam was a good pick, but they drafted Bernard who didn't fit our scheme and it's hard to see how he fits in given that Milano is locked up. He isn't an Edmunds replacement.

 

Beane needs to get his mojo back.

It’s harder to draft at the back end of RD1. It hasn’t been great and KC doing it better hasn’t helped. 
 

It also hasn’t been a disaster that some are making it out to be. This year’s draft class was actually pretty good and will jump up over time as they continue to play.
 

We’re going to look back in a year or two and have multiple quality starters - Elam, Cook and Benford + Shakir should be an above average contributor.