Joe Buscaglia’s Early Thoughts on the Bills Needs Going Into 2023

[LABILLBACKER]

Let's go ahead and combine #4 & #10.  Josh shouldn't believe in his OL anymore. Brown & Saffold were awful.  Dawkins seemed to regress some. Bates & Morse are decent but hardly great. You shouldn't be surprised if your run game is weak or your elite qb is constantly running for his life. That's the result of a 27th ranked OL.  And McB are to blame for that. They've had 5 years to do better. Half this draft better be OL/ WR.

 

Points 1-3 just validate how status qou this organization runs. I'd love to see the "playoff" DVOA of our defense these last 4 years.  Dorsey enables Josh so of course he's going to want to keep him. And McDermott enables Leslie to run a failed playoff defensive scheme.  I guarantee you both Dorsey & Frazier will be gone next January if the Bills exit early again. This is the only way Sean keeps his job.

 

As for the rest I agree there will be no big fa signings. Maybe one lower tier olineman.  I only sign Edmunds if he agrees to 12M. Anything more and I let him walk.  I'm letting Devin go and trying to sign Perine cheap as a power back. The last power back was Gore who was old as rust. Spencer goes permanently to backup status. Bernard & Spector were just bad picks.  

 

If this organization is serious about going to the next level, it's going to have to look in the mirror and be prepared to make big adjustments. 

Edited February 7, 2023 by LABILLBACKER

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, somnus00 said:

Edmunds does seem to struggle with weaving through traffic in getting to the QB. But as you said, he is great at taking away chunks of he field. His lack of splash plays is likely due to Frazier's scheme. I feel like he'd be a big play monster on the 49ers defense.

 

While he doesn't make those big plays, he just seems to lower the overall efficiency of the opposing offense. That is incredibly valuable, as you suggest.

Tremaine should never again be asked to blitz the qb. He just doesn't have the vision or instincts. I'd argue Milano is our ONLY reliable blitzer. Tremaine's value remains the middle of the field in coverage and mop up tackles.  This is his wheelhouse and will get you the occassional deflection. 

[OldTimer1960]

37 minutes ago, LOVEMESOMEBILLS said:

 

 Bernard is actually listed 1 pound heavier than Milano. Milano is listed at only 223 pounds. I was pretty surprised by this, I knew he was a bit undersized, but damn. Surprised he doesn't get injured more often with the way he hits people.

 

 

 

Just look at Milano and then look at Bernard.  Milano looks much more muscular.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2023 by OldTimer1960

[jlgarsh]

I think Beasley will be back on a cheap deal. He played well in the playoffs...was actually consistently getting open vs. Cincinnati but Josh had trouble hitting him. He had a 29 yard screen catch and run that may have been the best screen catch all season. By all means, get another WR. But I'd rather bring Beasley to camp and see if he can be an upgrade from McKenzie. Just my thoughts. Getting a 2nd TE would be great as well. Gronk would be ideal,,if willing to come out of retirement. If not, maybe Michael Mayer from ND? Not sure where he'll go, but should be a 1st rounder. They need someone who can catch and block.

[PauleeeWalnuts]

5 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

terrific Joe, so Beane will continue to work to upgrade the roster during the offseason,   wow this is big newsflash. 

 

gonna be a long offseason.  

 

Trust the Process.  

The “Process” has severe cracks, losing trust is inevitable 

[John from Riverside]

I defend this team, but the Bernard pick was abysmal. We hit on some later round stuff. Thank God but to use a third round pick on a guy that isn’t even your top special teams player is really disappointing.
 

The starters were set for the defense so I didn’t expect him to overtake anybody, but we also had a ton of injuries this year, and ended up having to resign players like klien because Bernard could not step in and fill that role

 

Got to do better bean

[JohnNord]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Let's go ahead and combine #4 & #10.  Josh shouldn't believe in his OL anymore. Brown & Saffold were awful.  Dawkins seemed to regress some. Bates & Morse are decent but hardly great. You shouldn't be surprised if your run game is weak or your elite qb is constantly running for his life. That's the result of a 27th ranked OL.  And McB are to blame for that. They've had 5 years to do better. Half this draft better be OL/ WR.

 

Points 1-3 just validate how status qou this organization runs. I'd love to see the DVOA of our defense these last 4 years.  Dorsey enables Josh so of course he's going to want to keep him. And McDermott enables Leslie to run a failed playoff defensive scheme.  I guarantee you both Dorsey & Frazier will be gone next January if the Bills exit early again. This is the only way Sean keeps his job.

 

As for the rest I agree there will be no big fa signings. Maybe one lower tier olineman.  I only sign Edmunds if he agrees to 12M. Anything more and I let him walk.  I'm letting Devin go and trying to sign Perine cheap as a power back. The last power back was Gore who was old as rust. Spencer goes permanently to backup status. Bernard & Spector were just bad picks.  

 

If this organization is serious about going to the next level, it's going to have to look in the mirror and be prepared to make big adjustments. 

The Bills defensive DVOA is actually excellent.  This is why you give Frazier time to make some changes.

 

Keep in mind there’s high year-to-year variance w/ defensive.  It’s much easier to be consistent on offense.  Bills have done well here 

 

 

[BrooklynBills]

6 hours ago, Billl said:

How do you commit $25+ million a year to two LBers who don't rush the QB?  That's a huge chunk of money to what amounts to arguably the least impactful defensive positions.

 

Any Edmunds extension will likely be in the long term range, which is going to keep his cap hit depressed in the early going. Due to his age, you could likely see an obvious restructure put in for year 2, which will effectively keep his cap hits low until his 3rd season on the contract (age 27) which could line up with a Milano cut.

 

I'm not fully in the "re-sign Edmunds" camp but it certainly feels like a very doable thing cap wise. I highly doubt he will be getting the gaurantees that Roquan got so I could see a long term deal that has some funny money at the end. Hell, he's so young that you could conceivably dip into his contract 3 times for cap coupons before he hits 28yo.

Year 1 (25)- Sign him - initial cap hit is low

Year 2 (26) - planned restructure - lower cap hit

Year 4 (28) - small extension - lower cap hit

Year 6 (30) - release. Eat some dead money

 

Obviously, would have to spend more time digging into the numbers here to see a more accurate version of this, but that isn't an overall bad situation given his age and athleticism.

[JohnNord]

25 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I defend this team, but the Bernard pick was abysmal. We hit on some later round stuff. Thank God but to use a third round pick on a guy that isn’t even your top special teams player is really disappointing.
 

The starters were set for the defense so I didn’t expect him to overtake anybody, but we also had a ton of injuries this year, and ended up having to resign players like klien because Bernard could not step in and fill that role

 

Got to do better bean

Same man… I think the idea for Bernard was that he could play a Shaq Thompson “big nickel” or maybe give the Bills 3rd LB in a 4-3 defense.  The problem is both scenarios take Taron Johnson, one of the best players on the defense, off the field.  So if Bernard isn’t a replacement for Edmunds or Johnson, why draft him?  To replace Matt Milano in ‘24?

 

The past few years, the Bills seemed to be in love with the idea of hybrid players on defense who had position flexibility.  Taron playing CB/LB, AJ/Justin Jefferson/Boogie Basham at DE/DT and Bernard at LB/S

 

With the exception of Taron, no one else has been able to excel at either position 

 

 

[buffblue]

2 hours ago, Success said:

It's possible that we could have our best secondary of the "Allen era" this coming season, even w/ losing Poyer.

 

Tre White was rounding slightly back into form at the end.  An offseason & full training camp will hopefully get him back to the player he was before the injury.  Meanwhile, Elam was coming on strong, and could take a big 2nd year leap. Johnson in the slot, Hyde back from injury, and hopefully Benford making a successful transition to safety could really turn the secondary into one of the league's best.

 

An optimistic view at this point but I expect us to at the very least be no worse statistically next year. Definitely agree on Tre - people here have given up on him way too quickly.

 

However, none of this will matter in the end (i.e. playoffs) if we continue to deploy the same passive, Mickey Mouse scheme that has failed us before

[McBean]

8 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I know many of us are fans of Joe B.  I thought he did a very good job analyzing the Bills potential off-season needs.  You can listen below but I’ll list the 10 big points:

 

 

 

1. Sean McDermott is going NO WHERE! 

 He understands the fan disappointment and blames the majority of the loss on McDermott for not having the Bills ready versus Cincinnati.  But he said it’s impressive with how the team overcame so many obstacles to win 14 games.  It would be maddening to move on from McDermotr.

 

2. Frazier is staying too.  Same with McDermott.  Talks about how they played poorly defensively against CIN but that the defense overcame many injuries to finish 4th in DVOA and that the defense bailed the Bills out in the WC against Miami.  
 

3. Dangerous game with Ken Dorsey.  It looks like Dorsey is staying and there is danger.  His 2022 season, while good statistically, also showed little creativity with a failure to adjust and break tendency.  Josh Allen wants him as OC and thinks he’ll get better.  BUT if he doesn’t get better, the Bills might have wasted another season.  The decision to run it back with Dorsey is probably the biggest gamble going into next season.  
 

4. Beane needs to fix the OL BIGTIME 

The Bills OL struggled and switched schemes throughout the season - which is not a good sign.  The OL depth was tested and was often very poor.  Beane will need to do a better job at finding depth.  
 

5. No “big ticket” free agent signings 

Forget any big FA contracts.  Beane said it’s not gonna happen and that Von is the biggest signing this off-season az well.  Bargain shopping only.  
 

6. Tremaine Edmunds has a chance of re-signing

Beane and McDermott raved about Edmunds.  Joe believes the market will be strong but that the Bills can find a way to bring him back.

 

7. The Terrell Bernard draft pick looms large

Bernard was a luxury pick that couldn’t see the field - even in garbage time.  He is not a replacement for Edmunds and going into Year 2, there doesn’t seem to be any role for him on the defense.  Given the talent that was available in round 3 last season and the fact Poyer is likely gone, it would have made more sense to draft a safety last season to take over.  There’s a chance Christian Benford could step in.   Either way it seems like the  3rd round selection could have been allocated much better.  
 

8. Devin Singletary is likely gone but could be back if there’s no market.

The Bills like Singletary but doesn’t see how the bring him back unless he doesn’t get the type of deal he wants in FA.  
 

9. Bills believe in Spencer Brown but

should they?

He was one of the worst rated starters on the team.  Joe doesn’t know how the Bills can possibly give Brown the benefit of the doubt given to how poorly he’s played.  Believes Bills will sign a veteran player like “Rodger Saffold” to complete at RT.  

10. Allen does not believe in his offensive line 

Believes there are a LOT of issues with the OL and the Bills need to do more to help Josh Allen.   The actions of Josh Allen throughout 2022 show that Josh doesn’t trust his line, resulting him to bail on plays and not get through his position.  He implied that there could be more moves in OL this season.  

Stopped reading at point number 1.

 

He’s writing with blinders on.

[Brand J]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

At the same time Frazier’s defenses have always ranked highly year to year

If only those highly ranked defenses translated to championship level football. Do you care to post the defensive stats from the  playoffs and where those stand since regular season rankings carry so much weight with you?

[LABILLBACKER]

31 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

The Bills defensive DVOA is actually excellent.  This is why you give Frazier time to make some changes.

 

Keep in mind there’s high year-to-year variance w/ defensive.  It’s much easier to be consistent on offense.  Bills have done well here 

 

 

I meant to say the playoff DVOA over the last 4 years.

[LOVEMESOMEBILLS]

2 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Just look at Milano and then look at Bernard.  Milano looks much more muscular.

 

 

 

 Yeah, he does look bigger, I don't know. Checked a few different places, all say the same thing. And Bernard only has an inch on him(6'0" vs 6'1"), so it's not like he's alot taller. 

 

 

 

 

[harmonkillebrew]

8 hours ago, JohnNord said:

10. Allen does not believe in his offensive line 

Believes there are a LOT of issues with the OL and the Bills need to do more to help Josh Allen.   The actions of Josh Allen throughout 2022 show that Josh doesn’t trust his line, resulting him to bail on plays and not get through his position.  He implied that there could be more moves in OL this season.  

This is the most important point.  Saw it so many times and led to a lot of hero ball plays and bad INTs.  Fix this as priority #1 and a lot will follow.  

[Mango]

9 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I know many of us are fans of Joe B.  I thought he did a very good job analyzing the Bills potential off-season needs.  You can listen below but I’ll list the 10 big points:

 

 

 

3. Dangerous game with Ken Dorsey.  It looks like Dorsey is staying and there is danger.  His 2022 season, while good statistically, also showed little creativity with a failure to adjust and break tendency.  Josh Allen wants him as OC and thinks he’ll get better.  BUT if he doesn’t get better, the Bills might have wasted another season.  The decision to run it back with Dorsey is probably the biggest gamble going into next season.  

 

10. Allen does not believe in his offensive line 

Believes there are a LOT of issues with the OL and the Bills need to do more to help Josh Allen.   The actions of Josh Allen throughout 2022 show that Josh doesn’t trust his line, resulting him to bail on plays and not get through his position.  He implied that there could be more moves in OL this season.  

I think that there’s a little bit of a storm brewing in Buffalo right now. If McBeane aren’t careful they could lose the roster and we’re starting all over with basically Josh Allen and nobody else.  
 

Between Diggs outburst and the fact that JB is reporting that Allen doesn’t like his OL, but hand picked his OC, if they string together a couple bad games early this whole thing could come off the tracks pretty quickly. 

[JohnNord]

3 minutes ago, Mango said:

I think that there’s a little bit of a storm brewing in Buffalo right now. If McBeane aren’t careful they could lose the roster and we’re starting all over with basically Josh Allen and nobody else.  
 

Between Diggs outburst and the fact that JB is reporting that Allen doesn’t like his OL, but hand picked his OC, if they string together a couple bad games early this whole thing could come off the tracks pretty quickly. 

He never said that Josh doesn’t like his OL.  Josh has always said glowing things publicly and is very close with Morse and Dawkins.  
 

What said is that as a whole, he didn’t seem like he could trust them to give him time.  Too often he became used to getting rushed and improvising.  As a result there were time he left a clean pocket because he didn’t anticipate he’d have time . 

[Big Blitz]

All this talk about explosive plays and YAC - fine. 
 

But the reality is we have sucked in the Red Zone - that’s where defenses have figured us out.  And that’s because we don’t have anyone underneath that turns a pass at the 10 yard line to a TD.  
 

Those are the YAC plays I want.  

 

Or a RB that breaks a run inside the 15 and turns it into a TD or at least makes defenses worry about it.  
 

Outside of improving the Oline and adding a WR maybe a RB - Red zone work needs to be Dorsey’s focus this off season.  Needs to watch those tapes 24/7.

Edited February 7, 2023 by Big Blitz

[John from Riverside]

4 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Same man… I think the idea for Bernard was that he could play a Shaq Thompson “big nickel” or maybe give the Bills 3rd LB in a 4-3 defense.  The problem is both scenarios take Taron Johnson, one of the best players on the defense, off the field.  So if Bernard isn’t a replacement for Edmunds or Johnson, why draft him?  To replace Matt Milano in ‘24?

 

The past few years, the Bills seemed to be in love with the idea of hybrid players on defense who had position flexibility.  Taron playing CB/LB, AJ/Justin Jefferson/Boogie Basham at DE/DT and Bernard at LB/S

 

With the exception of Taron, no one else has been able to excel at either position 

 

 

I am still a fan of the big nickel concept, especially whenever you have to play these really good tight ends Tyron Johnson is an awesome player but he is not big enough to handle the Kelsey’s.

[ndirish1978]

4 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Same man… I think the idea for Bernard was that he could play a Shaq Thompson “big nickel” or maybe give the Bills 3rd LB in a 4-3 defense.  The problem is both scenarios take Taron Johnson, one of the best players on the defense, off the field.  So if Bernard isn’t a replacement for Edmunds or Johnson, why draft him?  To replace Matt Milano in ‘24?

 

The past few years, the Bills seemed to be in love with the idea of hybrid players on defense who had position flexibility.  Taron playing CB/LB, AJ/Justin Jefferson/Boogie Basham at DE/DT and Bernard at LB/S

 

With the exception of Taron, no one else has been able to excel at either position 

 

 

 

Yeah versatility isn't a great help on the Dline when the versatile players stink at each position.